New Hampshire polling

[Tommy Duncan]

2000 Election: Bush won by 1.3

Bush 48.1
Kerry 46.8
Nader 3.9


online.wsj.com/public/res...print.html (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0907print.html)

Kerry 49.5
Bush 44.8
Nader 1.2

[Joe Chalupa]

YES!

[Tommy Duncan]

www.economist.com/researc...id=1527355 (http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_ID=2877108&subjectid=1527355)

Swing states: New Hampshire

The granite prize

Jul 1st 2004 | CONCORD, MANCHESTER AND PORTSMOUTH
The Economist

Welcome to prosperous, truculent New Hampshire, where newcomers in the south are upsetting predictions

EVERY fourth January, when it holds the first presidential primary, New Hampshire becomes the centre of American politics. Presidential hopefuls brave frigid temperatures to court the state's 900,000-odd voters. And then they disappear. New Hampshire looks too small and generally too Republican to warrant much attention. Not this year. The Democrats think they can snatch a state that George Bush won by just 1.27% in 2000 and, in a close election, its four electoral-college votes could prove crucial.

http://www.economist.com/images/20040703/CUS909.gif

New Hampshire has long been a bastion of Republicanism in the liberal north-east. Although the state went for Lyndon Johnson and Bill Clinton, it has otherwise voted for Republican presidents for generations. But its politics are libertarian rather than socially conservative. It is an affluent place (its median income is the fourth-highest in the country), full of well-educated folk who hate taxes: there is no state income tax or sales tax. Yet it is generally moderate on social issues. A majority of New Hampshire's voters, including 35% of its Republicans, support gay marriage. George Bush's southern-fried conservatism plainly worries people.

Meanwhile, more voters are now registered as independents (38%) than Republicans (37%) or Democrats (26%). This largely reflects the state's changing demographics. Helped by those low taxes, New Hampshire—particularly its south-eastern section—has lured in plenty of upmarket service jobs, many of them in finance and technology. It has also flourished as a commuter belt for Massachusetts: central Boston is less than an hour away by car. According to the University of New Hampshire Survey Centre, only one in three adults in the state was born there, and a quarter were born in Massachusetts.

These newcomers in the southern part of the state are hard to read, but definitely more liberal than the natives of a generation ago. They supported Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996; they were wowed by John McCain in the 2000 primaries and underwhelmed by both Mr Bush and Al Gore. (The latter would have won the state, according to one high-placed Democrat, if he had let Mr Clinton campaign on his behalf in New Hampshire.)

The issue that will sway these swing-voters is the economy. At first sight, that should boost Mr Bush's chances. New Hampshire has weathered the downturn relatively well: its unemployment rate of 4.0% is well under the national rate of 5.6%. That stands in stark contrast to the 1991-92 recession, when the state suffered a wrenching property bust—and promptly took revenge on Mr Bush's father.

But, so far at least, New Hampshire's relative recent prosperity has not helped the current president. Most polls put the two candidates in a dead heat, and John Kerry has even appeared in the lead. A poll in mid-June by the American Research Group, which is based in Manchester, gave Mr Bush a job-approval rating of 41%, its lowest level of his presidency.

Iraq certainly plays a role in this: New Hampshire has a relatively high share of reservists and around half of them have been called to service, one of the highest call-up ratios in the country. But the big issue with those swing-voters in the south seems to be jobs. It is not that employment is hard to find, but that good jobs seem scarce. Democratic activists say their target swing-voter is an educated professional who is worried about rising college fees and health-care costs.

http://www.economist.com/images/20040703/CUS913.gif

For Mr Kerry to succeed, these swing-voters must vote overwhelmingly Democratic. According to Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's survey centre, Mr Bush can win with 80% of the registered Republican vote and 40% of the independents. Mr Kerry, by contrast, needs 90% of the Democrats, 15-20% of the Republicans and two-thirds of the independents.

Can he do it? After some two decades as the senator from neighbouring Massachusetts, almost everyone in New Hampshire has heard of Mr Kerry; he is a quasi-home-town candidate. On the other hand, many New Hampshire voters fled high-tax Massachusetts, and they are deeply suspicious of tax-and-spend liberals. Although most people know his name, Mr Kerry is “still somewhat undefined”, as Jennifer Donahue, a political analyst at St Anselm College in Manchester, puts it. Mr Bush's campaign is trying hard to fill the gap. It has spent a lot of money on television ads, many of them painting Mr Kerry as a high-spending, flip-flopping liberal.


The Bush challenge

In a race this close, grass-roots organisation will count for a lot. The Bush-Cheney campaign headquarters has been open since the beginning of the year; there are Bush-Cheney campaign chairmen and even “e-campaign organisers” in every town. The state Republican Party is in good shape, controlling every statewide office of any note. Though the governor, Craig Benson, may face a serious Democratic challenge, the state's senior senator, Judd Gregg, is a shoo-in. (Mr Gregg's Democratic challenger recently dropped out after a corruption scandal; now he faces “Granny D”, a 94-year old woman, famous for walking across the country to promote campaign-finance reform.)

But the Democrats are better organised that they have ever been before—and far angrier. The popular former governor, Jeanne Shaheen, is the national chairman of Mr Kerry's campaign. Lower down swarm all the activists working for Bush-loathing “527” organisations (named after a section of the tax code) and stirring up Democratic voters. Mr Bush has the upper hand, but his margin for error is slim.

[Tommy Duncan]

www.bradenton.com/mld/bra...699950.htm (http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699950.htm)

Sep. 13-15
624 LV
MOE 3.0

Bush 49
Kerry 40
Nader 3

[Tommy Duncan]

www.rasmussenreports.com (http://www.rasmussenreports.com)

Sep. 15

Kerry 51
Bush 45

[Nbadan]

John Kerry holds the lead in the state of New Hampshire, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 48.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 44.5 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the backing of 1.6 per cent of respondents. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for Kerry dropped by 1.4 per cent since early September, while backing for Bush fell by 0.3 per cent. In mid-August, the Democrat held a 7.2 per cent lead over the Republican.

New Hampshire’s four electoral votes went to Bush in 2000, who defeated Democrat Al Gore by just over 7,000 ballots. The state has backed the eventual president in every election since 1980.

Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=9487)

[Nbadan]

Research 2000
9/20-9/23
600 Likely Voters
4.0 Margin of Error

Bush 46
Kerry 46
Nadar 02

[Nbadan]

American Research Group (http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ec2004/nh.html)
10/3-10/5
600 Likely Voters
4.0 Margin Of Error

Bush 47
Kerry 47
Nader 00

A UNH Granite poll (http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/elect100404.pdf) dated Oct03 had Bush with a 5 point lead.

[Nbadan]

Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/New%20Hampshire_Fall%202004.htm)
10/18
500 LV
4.5 MOE

Bush 47
Kerry 49
Nader 00

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American Research Group (http://americanresearchgroup.com/nh/)
10/16-10/18
600 LV
4.0 MOE

Bush 47
Kerry 46
Nader 01

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Mason-Dixon (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6256939/)
10/15-10/18
625 LV
4.0 MOE

Bush 48
Kerry 45
Nader 01

--

Suffolk Univ (http://suffolk.edu/spotlight/poll_10_18.html)
10/14-10/17
400 LV
4.9 MOE

Bush 41
Kerry 46
Nader 01