Pennsylvania polling

[Tommy Duncan]

abcnews.go.com/sections/p...40915.html (http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/poll_pennsylvania_040915.html)



The Race in Pennsylvania
Poll: Voters Favor Bush as Leader, Kerry on Economics

Analysis
By Gary Langer

Sept. 15, 2004— Economic concerns are keeping Sen. John Kerry competitive in Pennsylvania, while security and strength of leadership work best for President Bush — and the president has an edge in on-the-ground retail politicking in this sharply contested state, an ABC News poll shows.

About one in five registered voters in Pennsylvania, 21 percent, say they've been contacted by a representative of the Bush campaign asking for their support. That compares with 14 percent who've been contacted by the Kerry campaign. The difference is a small but real one — and in a tight race, this kind of retailing can be crucial to turnout.

The race is essentially tied. The poll found 49 of likely voters in Pennsylvania support Bush, 48 percent Kerry. With Ralph Nader in the contest — he's currently off the ballot pending legal appeal — it's 49 percent-46 percent-2 percent. (Among all registered voters, not just those likely to vote, it's 48 percent-48 percent, or 47 percent-47 percent-2 percent with Nader.)

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

Another race in the state is less close: incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter leads Democratic challenger Joseph Hoeffel by 55 percent to 38 percent among likely voters. There's a sizable crossover vote, with nearly a third of Kerry's supporters crossing the aisle to back Specter. (Just 13 percent of Bush's support Hoeffel.)

The presidential contest in Pennsylvania is closer than in last week's national ABC News/Washington Post poll. One reason is that there are more Democrats than Republicans among the voter pool (whether this holds on Election Day remains to be seen); also, Kerry is more competitive in the state on issues including the economy, health care and education.

But Bush is very strong in his key areas — security, clarity, leadership — and he's attracting twice as many Democrats (14 percent) as Kerry is Republicans (7 percent). Bush's job approval rating among registered voters is 51 percent, ever so slightly over half, and about what it is nationally[/b]

[DeSPURado]

When you post one out of the MOE% let me know k?

[Tommy Duncan]

I provided the link. This is clearly not good for Kerry.

[DeSPURado]

Its expected after the month he has had. Gore was down by more than 10% points in most polls and more in some others at this point too.

Kerry has never led an election he has won until the last month either.

[Tommy Duncan]

Sure but those were elections in Massachusetts and the Demo presidential primary. In '96 he won Mass by 8% when Clinton was carrying the state by 32% or so.

Not looking good for Kerry.

Go have a beer.

[DeSPURado]

You realize you only have to post one thing to show how today is going for Kerry?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep15.png

[Tommy Duncan]

Oh?

[Tommy Duncan]

Oh good the pro-Kerry guy's map.

[Yonivore]

DeSPURate, I have that website too...if you hold your mouse over the state, you'll see how old some of the polls are.

Illinois' numbers are from Aug 21 I believe.

[DeSPURado]

Illionois map would still be blue even under the latest poll Tommy posted. The only difference was if MN was tied.

[Tommy Duncan]

And NJ.

[Yonivore]

Illinois wouldn't be dark blue...it might be baby blue or even bordered in baby blue.

Wouldn't that suck DeSPURate?

[DeSPURado]

I will bet 100 dollars on Illinois turning out blue on the election day.

[Tommy Duncan]

www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379...easeID=400 (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=400)

Sep.11-14
792 LV
MoE 3.5

Bush 46
Kerry 42
Nader 6


www.usatoday.com/news/pol...8-poll.htm (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-08-poll.htm)

Sep.9-12
MoE 3.5

Bush 49
Kerry 46
Nader 2

[Tommy Duncan]

www.economist.com/researc...id=1527355 (http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_ID=2755028&subjectid=1527355)

Swing states

Pennsylvania's puzzles

Jun 10th 2004 | HARRISBURG, PHILADELPHIA AND PITTSBURGH
The Economist

Republicans still nurse hopes in a heavily Democratic place

GEORGE BUSH has visited Pennsylvania more frequently than any state other than Texas. Yet you don't have to be a partisan Democrat to wonder if he is wasting his time. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by almost half a million. The Democrats have won the state in the past three presidential elections. And since 2000, when Al Gore won it by 200,000 votes, the Democrats claim that they have strengthened their grip.

http://www.economist.com/images/20040612/CUS972.gif

Democrats point to three things to back up their belief that John Kerry will do even better than Mr Gore. The first is the change of power in the state capital, Harrisburg. In 2000 George Bush could rely on the enthusiastic support of the governor, Tom Ridge (now head of the Department of Homeland Security); today, the governor's office is in the hands of a savvy Democrat, Ed Rendell. Don Morabito, the executive director of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, argues that Mr Rendell's victory in 2002 not only suggests a rising enthusiasm for the Democrats; it also puts a great deal of institutional power in their hands.

The Democratic base is also fired up as never before. Democratic front organisations, such as America Coming Together (ACT) and the Partnership for America's Families, are both thriving in the state. They demonstrated their formidable vote-gathering power in the 2003 mayor's race, when John Street—hardly one of America's great mayors—increased his majority from 9,000 votes in 1999 to 80,000. In the three months before the election Democratic activists registered 86,000 new voters, most of them blacks and Latinos: an astonishing achievement in a city of just 1.5m residents. Some target households were visited several times in a row.

ACT and its allies have little difficulty tapping into anti-Bush sentiment. Minorities are still resentful about the “stolen” election of 2000. Blue-collar workers have seen 160,000 manufacturing jobs leave the state since 2001 (and Mr Bush added insult to injury by flip-flopping over steel sanctions). The opposition to the war in Iraq from Michael Moore-reading students is all too predictable. But some Democrats point out that opinion in working-class western Pennsylvania is also beginning to turn against the war.

Western Pennsylvania is “Deer Hunter” country: home to fiercely patriotic Reagan Democrats who loathe the liberal wing of the Democratic Party but who tend to be the first to suffer when the economy turns down or a war goes badly. Pennsylvanians are already over-represented not just in the list of casualties but also in the list of people involved in prisoner abuse in Abu Ghraib.

The third factor is Teresa Heinz Kerry. As the widow of a popular local (Republican) senator and arguably the most powerful philanthropist in the state, Mrs Kerry carries huge clout, particularly in the fiercely contested western part. The Heinz name is omnipresent in Pittsburgh: there is a Heinz Field, a Heinz museum, a Heinz convention centre, and a plethora of charitable endowments that are charged with improving the quality of life in the city. Mrs Kerry has won general praise for the efficient way she has run the Heinz charities, and is said to have raised a lot of money for her husband's campaign among Pittsburgh Republicans.

So should Mr Bush forget about Pennsylvania? Though Republicans are clearly on the defensive at the moment, they insist that the state remains winnable. They point out that this is not really one state, but three: greater Philadelphia, greater Pittsburgh and “Alabama”, the sprawling rural area in the middle. The Democrats may have a stranglehold on Philadelphia, with its large populations of both minorities and liberal professionals. But the Republicans dominate “Alabama”. And Pittsburgh tends to swing with the national mood.

http://www.economist.com/images/20040612/CUS976.gif

The other reason is that figures for party affiliation are pretty meaningless. The “Democrats” in western Pennsylvania are more likely to vote Republican than the “Republicans” in the Philadelphia suburbs. The Republicans hold both the state's Senate seats and have a 12-7 advantage in its congressional delegation. They also control both houses of the state legislature as well as two of the state's top jobs, attorney-general and treasurer. Besides all this, the Republican Party machine is infinitely more sophisticated than the one they had in 2000, with an army of grass-roots operatives and campaigns tailor-made for the different regions.

The biggest problem for the Republicans is not so much lack of enthusiasm among their supporters as an excess of it. Pennyslvania is home to a hardline conservative movement that is fiercely anti-tax and pro-religion. The state's junior senator, Rick Santorum, is a darling of social conservatives and a fierce critic of liberal ideas such as gay marriage.

The power of the Republican right is arguably a serious problem for the party. This is not just because it creates distracting divisions, but also because it gives the impression that the Republicans are outside the suburban mainstream. In 2000, Mr Gore won 55% of the vote in several suburbs (such as Bucks, Chester and Delaware) that have been voting solidly Republican since William McKinley was in the White House and that cast only 30% of their votes for Michael Dukakis in 1988.

These moderate Republicans have long resented the influx of gun-toting, Bible-bashing “Alabamans” into their party. The big question in this year's election is whether their worries about national security will persuade them to put aside their doubts about Mr Bush's Alabaman-style social conservativism.

[Tommy Duncan]

pittsburghlive.com/x/trib...52073.html (http://pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/election/s_252073.html)

Sep. 8-15
401 RV
MoE 4.4

Bush 49
Kerry 49


www.strategicvision.biz/p...lvania.htm (http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pennsylvania.htm)

Sep. 13-15
801 LV
MoE 3.0

Bush 49
Kerry 44
Nader 1

[SpursWoman]

So should Mr Bush forget about Pennsylvania? Though Republicans are clearly on the defensive at the moment, they insist that the state remains winnable


Clearly on the defensive? Looks like a dead-heat to me. :wtf

[Tommy Duncan]

The date on that article was June 10th. Sorry for it being dated but I thought that series of articles provided a good overview of each state's politics.

But if Bush remains strong in Pennsylvania then Kerry's chances will be looking fairly bleak.

[Yonivore]

Particularly when Gore won the State in 2000 and, looking at this:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.png

[Nbadan]

:baby

[Tommy Duncan]

server1.fandm.edu/organiz...stonepoll/ (http://server1.fandm.edu/organizations/keystonepoll/)

Sep. 15

Bush 47
Kerry 45

[Tommy Duncan]

www.realcities.com/mld/kr...tstory.jsp (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9713733.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp)

Sep. 14-16
624 RV
MoE +/-4.0

Kerry 45
Bush 44
Nader 1
Undecided 10

[Nbadan]

Fox News

800 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 3.5

Bush 45
Kerry 48

Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/092304_poll2.pdf)

[Nbadan]

Gallup
9/25-9/28
654 Likely Voters
4.0 Margin Of Error

Bush 49
Kerry 46
Nadar 01

[Nbadan]

Survey USA (http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041006pressen891.pdf)
10/3- 10/5
776 Likely Voters
3.6 Margin of Error

Bush 47
Kerry 49
Nadar 00

Kerry is looking good in Pennslyvania, but lets get it above the margin of error to be safe.

[Nbadan]

Provided By: The Associated Press
Last Modified: 10/12/2004 11:30:58 AM

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) -- Sen. John Kerry maintains a slight lead over President Bush in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll that shows clear differences in how voters perceive the two candidates but reflects little movement on the major issues of the campaign.

Kerry, the Democratic candidate, was supported by 46 percent and the Republican president by 42 percent of 1,980 registered voters in the independent survey by the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Ten percent of the respondents were undecided.

11alive.com (http://www.11alive.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=53110)

Among a smaller group of 1,343 likely voters, including undecided people who said they were leaning toward one candidate or the other, the candidates were about even with Kerry at 49 percent, Bush at 47 percent and 4 percent undecided.

In a three-way race that included independent candidate Ralph Nader, who is fighting in state courts to qualify for the Pennsylvania ballot, Kerry was backed by 46 percent of registered voters, while Bush was favored by 43 percent and Nader by 3 percent. Seven percent were undecided.

[Nbadan]

Looks like W may be conceding Pennsylvania to Kerry...


May be conceding state as race tightens in West

BY MAGGIE HABERMAN in Santa Fe, N.M.
and KENNETH R. BAZINET and HELEN KENNEDY in Tempe, Ariz.
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITERS

President Bush appears to be conceding some ground in the hard-fought battleground of Pennsylvania, as the 2004 race, which has been fought in only a small number of states, narrows even further.
Bush has visited the Keystone State 39 times - more than any other state - but a White House source said he does not plan to return soon and Pennsylvania was not on a list of the President's top 10 advertising targets last month.

Campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel called talk of Bush's pulling out of Pennsylvania "a rumor" and stressed that travel planning is day-to-day.

"The President has visited the state of Pennsylvania over 30 times and we have tens of thousands of volunteers," Stanzel said. "Our campaign has a real opportunity to be victorious there on Nov. 2."
<snip>

NY Daily News (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/story/241604p-207221c.html)

[Nbadan]

Kerry is still up in the Buckeye state!

Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pennsylvania_Fall%202004.htm)
10/6-10/12
578 LV
4.0 MOE

Bush 46
Kerry 47
Nadar 01

--
Quinnipiac (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=480)
10/9-10/11
1343 LV
2.7 MOE

Bush 47
Kerry 49
Nadar (ob)

[Nbadan]

Mason-Dixon (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9977638.htm)
10/15-10/18
625 LV
4.0 MOE

Bush 45
Kerry 46
Nadar 00

--

SurveyUSA (http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041018pressen.pdf)
10/15-10/17
619 LV
4.0 MOE

Bush 45
Kerry 51
Nadar 00