Spurs' defense without Duncan..

[HarlemHeat37]

I continue to be concerned about the Spurs' defense when Duncan is off the floor, or when he has to go up against a team that has too many weapons for him to defend all by himself..

After tonight, the Spurs' D is now approximately 11 points better when Duncan is on the floor, which is a ridiculous number, one of the highest numbers in the NBA..his on/off defensive rating is -9 now, while the next Spur is just a -4, and the next Spurs big isn't at +1, which is a massive discrepancy..

The Spurs' FG% D is 8% worse when Duncan is off the floor, which is disgusting..

Looking at other big name players, particularly the defensive anchors that play on a top 15 D, and how their team reacts when they're on/off the floor..

Duncan: -11
Garnett: -6
Josh Smith: -6
Horford: -3
Noah: +11
Okafor: +2
Howard: 0
Bogut: -4
Chandler: -6
Hibbert: 0
Gasol: -8
Odom: -5

Defensive on/off numbers are tricky, because they aren't adjusted for teammates, however, there are a few things you can learn from looking at them..

Gasol has a high number as well, but it's going to decrease with Bynum's return, which means Pau will play less minutes and won't have to do as much defensively..

Tim Duncan has a -11 number, which is the best of any defensive anchor on a top 15 D..this speaks on how well he has played D this year, but it also speaks on the lack of defensive support around him, and the fact that he has to make up for his teammates on D as much or more than anybody in the NBA..Duncan's minutes have been managed well so far, but how much longer can he do this?..

Is it safe to rely on a mid-30s year old Duncan with bad knees to pretty much carry the defense every single night during the playoffs?..it looks like it's gonna have to happen..

[ducks]

I like the fact spurs are letting others score more so tim can carry the d
the d is not as sexy but spurs need duncan d more then the o

[G-Dawgg]

Duncan seems to get schooled on a nightly basis now. It's so depressing to me. Even The Admiral never got pwned like Duncan does before he retired....

[timvp]

Good post. Though it's better to be worried about the defense without Duncan rather than recent years when it appeared as if Duncan's ability to be elite on the defensive end was in a steep decline.

Hypothetically, Splitter would be the anchor to the defense when Duncan is on the bench. But if Pop is putting Splitter in the Oberto program, we might have to hope that McDyess turns back the clock even more.

[024]

i think as the season goes on, it will become more and more obvious that the spurs need one more defensive big man to be a true championship contender. games are passing by and splitter still registers DNPs nightly. spurs need a true defensive big to anchor the floor when duncan isn't present and the chances of splitter seeing any significant playoff minutes are becoming less and less.

[igruex]

Excellent post.
Two questions, What's the score for Duncan in previous seasons?
And just to see how consistent this may be as an index, what's Bonner score?

[jestersmash]

Developing Splitter is the only viable option at this point. He's the only person on our roster with potential immediate (well, immediate as in by the end of the season and hopefully before the playoffs) defensive upside.

[TD 21]

Given that they've started Blair and utilized Bonner as the third big (really, second if you by by mpg), I'm not surprised that they're as reliant defensively on Duncan as they've been. If Pop eventually comes to his senses and has McDyess starting and Splitter as the third big, then they'll be less reliant defensively on Duncan than they are now.

So it's more an indictment of the rotation being deployed than it is the personnel in general. If the personnel is eventually utilized properly, this team could be approaching top five status defensively.

Also, don't underestimate having Anderson out. I'm not saying him alone would make a massive difference, but if he reclaims his spot in the rotation, then Neal will play less, which should also help some, given the early promise Anderson showed defensively.

[TD 21]

Neal's defense isn't BAD. He hustles and contests shots. It's not great, but it sure beats Roger Mason's or Blair's pathetic excuse for defense in the low post.

Anderson has the physical tools to be a better defender than Neal and early on was fairly impressive defensively. Obviously, the sample size isn't extensive enough to determine how good he is defensively, but I'd be surprised if he's not better than Neal. Like I said, him alone isn't going to make a massive difference defensively, but he could help some.

[Nick Manning]

Duncan seems to get schooled on a nightly basis now. It's so depressing to me. Even The Admiral never got pwned like Duncan does before he retired....

I guess you missed the 1995 WCF. Here's a brief recap:

GROmHUgIu2U


Probably one of the greatest examples of one-on-one ownage over a playoff series

[TD 21]

James Anderson hadn't proved himself to be a consistent scorer with an outside game, at the basket game AND in between game; Neal has proven all three IMO and tonight case in point. JA didn't have the 9 foot runner that Neal is capable of.

That has nothing to do with anything I said. I'm talking strictly defensively, not who has the more extensive offensive repertoire.

[G-Dawgg]

I guess you missed the 1995 WCF. Here's a brief recap:

GROmHUgIu2U


Probably one of the greatest examples of one-on-one ownage over a playoff series

Dude, that's hall of famer talent schooling the Admiral... I'm talking about Tim getting schooled on a nightly basis by random big-men...

Who cares about that anyways, that's the Houston Rockets in that video, they won't be contending for shit for a long time..lol.

[rayray2k8]

What's that? Matt Bonner is playing too many minutes??

[G-Dawgg]

Anderson has the physical tools to be a better defender than Neal and early on was fairly impressive defensively. Obviously, the sample size isn't extensive enough to determine how good he is defensively, but I'd be surprised if he's not better than Neal. Like I said, him alone isn't going to make a massive difference defensively, but he could help some.

I think James Anderson has the potential to be a Stephen Jackson type player..

[jestersmash]

JA has a lot of potential offensive upside, though. He wasn't Big 12 player of the year scoring 24 PPG just shooting 3 point shots.

The guy is better than a 20th pick as well. His stock fell because teams choosing before us felt he was too injury prone. Considering the circumstances (JA benched with an injury) they might have been right.

That said, his offensive potential is far more than what he showed us thus far. He had a couple of games where he shot 2-3 from 3 or similar. That's not even close to being the entirety of his game.

He's not the next coming of Kobe Bryant (I hope I'm not hyping him up too much) but for all he's done in college and for all the accolades he's received, he's better than just being able to give you 40% shooting from 3 point land.

[admiralsnackbar]

Good eye, Harlem. I knew Duncan was having a good year defensively, but I didn't realize just how much the team was depending on him to maintain this level of production for their success. Definitely a cause for concern.

[jjktkk]

Good post. Though it's better to be worried about the defense without Duncan rather than recent years when it appeared as if Duncan's ability to be elite on the defensive end was in a steep decline.

Hypothetically, Splitter would be the anchor to the defense when Duncan is on the bench. But if Pop is putting Splitter in the Oberto program, we might have to hope that McDyess turns back the clock even more.

I think it will, due to the fact, that Pop won't wear out Dyess, nor Duncan, during the regular season, by over playing them.

[TDMVPDPOY]

I think it will, due to the fact, that Pop won't wear out Dyess, nor Duncan, during the regular season, by over playing them.

WE seriously need another BIG down low to contribute, i dont think blair and bonner is the answer, even splitter isnt gettin any minutes so i count him out of the equation

[HarlemHeat37]

Oberto was a much better defender than Blair or Bonner, arguably McDyess..more importantly, that was Duncan in his prime + Bowen on the perimeter + weaker competition, especially from a size perspective..

[HarlemHeat37]

You're also forgetting that there was another key big on that team, he was pretty important, and he fit perfectly next to Duncan on both ends..

[L.I.T]

Oberto as a team defender was superior to Dice.

[rmt]

HH, that stat with Duncan off the court is disgusting as is the Suns shooting 53.5% tonight. Duncan has been having a good stretch recently - 10-17 in 31 mins. 20pts 15reb 7asst 2stl 3blk tonight.

[TDMVPDPOY]

meh, it would be nice but not essential. Oberto wasn't exactly a stud down low defensively. Mohammed wasn't GREAT. He was however good enough to defend Ben Wallace (what a feat).

lol out of all the bigs u mention no offense ben wallace?

we wont beat teams like the lakers or celtics who have bigs who can dominate a game

seriously for us to win against those teams is sheer defense, taking on charges and shit..but holding them down low and blocking their shots... :(

[rmt]

Oberto as a team defender was superior to Dice.

Dice, IMO, is a better man-to-man defender. Oberto was crafty, high BBIQ.


Defensively yes, but Matt Bonner's shot selection >>>>>>>> Robert Horry's shot selection, both in the regular seasons and in the playoffs. People forget about the ones he missed in the playoffs that "counted" just as much, he got the reputation as "Big Shot Rob" because he always made the last one but he also threw up some airball threes in series I recall against the Lakers and Mavericks.

Surely you jest. There's not one thing Bonner does better than Horry except his regular season +/- stats and who cares about that. Bonner is the anti-thesis of Horry who had an off-the-chart BBIQ and was clutch when it mattered. His performance in 05 Finals game 5 alone should silence any comparison with Bonner. I'll gladly eat crow if Bonner ever puts up any performance resembling that in any playoff game, much less the Finals.

[TDMVPDPOY]

I wouldn't mind us trading Blair for a 7-footer but who's available? (Aside from guys who "know the system" like Mohammed and Elson).

i wouldnt touch mohammed, his contract is nasty if i remember he signed a MLE/5 or something 2-3 seasons ago

as for Elson...he wasnt that good

those players arent equal value anyway if we going to trade blair....

[UnWantedTheory]

Oberto was a much better defender than Blair or Bonner, arguably McDyess..more importantly, that was Duncan in his prime + Bowen on the perimeter + weaker competition, especially from a size perspective..

[ElNono]

Robert Horry was great...BUT he might have won the title in 04 if he didn't [in Game 5 vs the Lakers] a) chuck up a bad three up three points with a minute left and b) double team Kobe who was 30 feet away from the basket instead of guarding the inbounds with 0.4 to play which allowed for an easy pass to Fisher. Just my rant.

Everybody has a mental fart here and there, including Manu in '06.
Horry played better the higher the stakes. He was a guy that would come up with a timely blocked shot or a charge when it mattered. Stuff that Matty can only dream about.

[jjktkk]

WE seriously need another BIG down low to contribute, i dont think blair and bonner is the answer, even splitter isnt gettin any minutes so i count him out of the equation


I agree, but I don't see any big additions this year, so we have to hope Blair continues to develop and hopefully Splitter will somehow get into the mix.

[SenorSpur]

WE seriously need another BIG down low to contribute, i dont think blair and bonner is the answer, even splitter isnt gettin any minutes so i count him out of the equation

Isn't it ironic that the Spurs have somehow developed this need for a low-post big, when they allowed a young, athletic, low-post big to simply leave in FA over the offseason? A move that still chaps my hide.

[Cane]

Imo its always surprising to see how much of a defensive impact that the anchor named Duncan still dishes out; props to the OP :toast. Once someone sees those numbers it no question that Duncan deserves another all star appearance in addition to other NBA honors and awards like All-NBA. His impact on the game is remarkable even though he's playing with really flawed talents in Blair and Bonner and ancient vets like McDyess.

However I'm not overly-concerned of the Spurs defense without Duncan for these reasons:


Spurs are winning to the point of having the best record in the NBA :flag:

Spurs still have plenty to work on and the season's still young. The Spurs defense seems to go up another level as the season progresses.

Duncan's averaging a career low in minutes and looks healthy, if he was playing more than he did last season it'd be more of a concern. The Spurs have also used him less on offense this year which should allow him to rest or focus that energy on the defensive end.

Those numbers when Duncan's off the court might be inflated since it doesn't distinguish what minutes are garbage-time, when the Spurs have gigantic leads, etc.

James Anderson and Tiago Splitter. Yes they're NBA-rookies but I expect both of these players to get more minutes in the 2nd half of the season as the Spurs schedule becomes demanding and busier. Both of these players seem to be pretty decent on defense however Anderson's rotations, quickness to stay on his man, and ability to block shots was surprising since I thought he was more offensively-minded.

[jjktkk]

Isn't it ironic that the Spurs have somehow developed this need for a low-post big, when they allowed a young, athletic, low-post big to simply leave in FA over the offseason? A move that still chaps my hide.

No its not ironic. If the Spurs would have of kept Mahimni, that would be 3 developmental bigs on the roster. Although Splitter, for whatever reasons, has not played much this year, he was, coming into this season, considered to be an upgrade over Mahimni. Throw in Blair's expected improvement in his 2nd year, and there wouldn't have been no room for a 3rd developmental big man. How could Pop find enough minutes for Blair, Mahimni, and Splitter?

[BlairForceDejuan]

Developing Splitter is the only viable option at this point.

This this this this this this this this this this this

[Agloco]

lol Noah at +11

If I've said it once, I've said it a million times: The Spurs need another long, defensive minded big on the roster.

[TheSullyMonster]

Isn't it ironic that the Spurs have somehow developed this need for a low-post big, when they allowed a young, athletic, low-post big to simply leave in FA over the offseason? A move that still chaps my hide.

It isn't like Mahinmi is suddenly fantastic in Dallas and we're all kicking ourselves over him leaving.:lol

[Blake]

If I've said it once, I've said it a million times: The Spurs need another long, defensive minded big on the roster.

if only Splitter would get here. The Spurs could sure use him.

[Hoops Czar]

Hypothetically, Splitter would be the anchor to the defense when Duncan is on the bench. But if Pop is putting Splitter in the Oberto program, we might have to hope that McDyess turns back the clock even more.

Its hard to play defense when your lying on your back.

[Hoops Czar]

Ian Mahinmi sucked/still sucks. We need to get a vet big who's 7' and can play solid defense or develop Splitter quickly.

We could have had Shaq for pennies, but opted against it because we had TOO MANY big option and pop didn't want to stunt Splitter's development. Now we need a vet big? Sorry, the nba's all sold out of those. The Spurs have nothing they can afford to give up nor the cap space to attain one at the trade deadline. The spurs are plum out of luck.

[kjhip1]

your not going to find a quality big at this time unless your willing to initiate a trade, which Pop wont do..

If a trade were in the cards, I definately would want this guy:

http://www.slamonline.com/online/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/anthony_randolph.jpg

[Agloco]

if only Splitter would get here. The Spurs could sure use him.

:tu