Hollinger - Kobe vs LeBron

[mystargtr34]

Anyone with Insider care to post?

[LkrFan]

Hollinger the PERfect Laker hater. :wakeup

[diego]

article about the lakers and magic's struggles


Two years ago, the Lakers and Magic met in the NBA Finals. Last season, they were two games away from a rematch.

This season? We might not see either team play past mid-May.

It's only December, but these two teams, which set their sights on winning a championship before the season (and have payrolls to match), already are losing contact with the leaders in their respective conferences. While their stars are shining as brightly as ever -- Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard are second and third in the NBA in player efficiency rating, respectively -- L.A. and Orlando stand nowhere near the lofty heights expected for them at the start of the season.

L.A. is just 21-8 despite playing by far the league's easiest schedule, and while the Lakers have been without Andrew Bynum for nearly the entire time, they've had remarkably few injuries otherwise -- aside from Bynum, their top eight players have missed a total of one game.

Yet the Lakers find themselves slipping well out of range of San Antonio -- they're already 4.5 games behind, and as I mentioned, they've yet to get into the teeth of their schedule. Moreover, with Dallas at 23-5, the Lakers face the very real possibility of having to win two series on the road just to get back to the Finals. That's a far different road than we imagined heading into the season, when L.A. was an overwhelming favorite to win the conference.

And for those of you who aren't troubled by that fact and think the Lakers can just turn it on for the postseason, consider these two facts: (1) The Lakers have been the West's top seed each of the past three seasons, helping grease their Western Conference three-peat, and (2) L.A. hasn't won a series without home-court advantage since … wait for it … 2004 against Minnesota.

L.A. has played only one series without home-court advantage the past three years -- the 2008 Finals against Boston, which it lost in six games. The Lakers were fortunate to have higher-seeded Eastern teams knocked out each of the past two years, handing them home-court advantage, but they can't count on that going forward. Furthermore, consider that the Lakers have lost all three road games against winning teams so far this season. Sixteen such games remain on the schedule, starting with next week's back-to-back in San Antonio and New Orleans.

Additionally, the Lakers appear to be regressing rather than progressing. With Pau Gasol worn out from a heavy minutes load and the point guard position again an open sore, L.A. is having trouble even against bad teams. The Lakers just completed a patsy-filled stretch in which 12 of their 13 opponents had sub-.500 records, and stumbled to an 8-5 mark, culminating in Tuesday's blowout home loss to Milwaukee.

Yet L.A.'s troubles pale beside those of the Magic, who stand a whopping 7.5 games behind Boston in the Eastern Conference. At 16-12 after dropping nine of its past 10 games, Orlando wouldn't even have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs if the postseason began today. With upcoming tilts against the league's two top teams, Boston and San Antonio, the Magic could lose further ground.

Orlando has fallen so far that you'll need to click onto the second page of the Power Rankings to find it, all the way down at No. 17.

Despite Howard's expanded post repertoire, including a newly developed midrange bank shot for which he should pay royalties to Tim Duncan, the Magic's offensive attack has imploded over the past 10 games. Superficially, it seems that shouldn't have been the case, since Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass have all played at or near their historic norms.

But three positions contributed mightily to the malaise. First, there were the struggles of the since-traded Rashard Lewis, who soaked up 32 minutes a game but barely averaged double figures and shot 41.8 percent.

Then there was the replacement-level output at the small forward spot manned by Quentin Richardson and Mickael Pietrus. The two were asked only to hit 3s, and while they shot them plenty (more than eight tries a game between them), they were only league average in accuracy.

And finally, there was the absolutely disastrous audition at backup point guard by Chris Duhon, featuring a Mozgovian 20.9 turnover ratio that's easily the league's worst at his position. (But don't worry, Orlando -- in just three and a half short years, that contract will be off your books.)

Enter Agent Zero, along with the return of Turk, and the departure of Carter and the same offensive struggles. In fact, the Magic's three new horsemen rode in to be the three worst offensive players on the floor in Tuesday's loss to Dallas. Gilbert Arenas, in particular, was horrific on both ends, blowing rotations defensively and firing his usual assortment of questionable shots on offense. Had he been replaced by any randomly selected D-League point guard, Orlando might very well have won.

Obviously it's too early to proclaim success or failure with the Magic's midseason reconstruction project, but the entire rationale behind the trade was that this team no longer appeared to be a legitimate contender. But they've taken a huge risk to get back to that level and it's unsure, at best, whether it will succeed.

Similarly, only a fool would dismiss the Lakers at this point. We've seen them look far worse than this -- last March, for instance -- and recover. Our puzzlement, instead, is that a Western Conference that seemingly was going to be a one-team race now looks to have at least three horses worthy of a wager … and it's debatable whether L.A. should still be considered the favorite of the three.

Fifty games remain for each of these teams to get their acts together, and with elite talents like Howard and Bryant as linchpins, it's certainly possible they recover in time to make their usual deep playoff run this spring. That said, virtually everyone's list of the top four contenders heading into this season included both Orlando and the Lakers. Neither has played like a top-four team to date.

[diego]

article about kobe v lebron


Kobe versus LeBron.

With the two rivals set to match up on Christmas Day, the familiar debate can begin anew.

This season, however, there are a few unusual twists. For starters, neither finds his team atop the NBA standings. James and Bryant were members of the top-seeded teams in their respective conferences each of the past two seasons, but the Heat and Lakers find themselves well behind the Celtics and Spurs at the moment.

Second, neither is atop the PER (player efficiency rating) charts, nor atop most MVP ballots. New Orleans' Chris Paul leads the former, and several interlopers (most notably Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki) have injected themselves into the race for the trophy won by James the past two seasons and Bryant the season before that.

Nonetheless, the biggest change isn't either of those two things, at least in terms of the one-on-one statistical contest these two have conducted from afar. Rather, it is that Bryant leads James in the current PER rankings -- it's the first time in four years that has happened. There's a certain irony to this -- for years, I've been assaulted by e-mail from Kobe's massive and unusually sensitive fan army asserting that PER is obvious foolishness because it ranks LeBron ahead of Kobe.

(Forgive my ornery mood, but I spent my morning watching the entire Warriors-Kings game, including the five extra minutes they subjected us to after Sacramento's Francisco Garcia began an epic collapse with one of the most ill-advised jump shots in recent NBA history.).

The other edge of this ironic sword is that Bryant isn't having that great a year in the eyes of many. In part, that's because of his team's uneven play. Tuesday night's bomb against Milwaukee (capped by Kobe's F-bomb, as it turns out) dropped L.A. to 21-8 against the league's easiest schedule) and put it five games behind the Spurs in the loss column, which is uncomfortable territory for a squad that began the year an overwhelming favorite to win the West.

But Bryant also is shooting with a fury some find unsettling, and perhaps a bit too reminiscent of his 2005-06 season. In that campaign, Bryant was unquestionably brilliant, averaging 35.4 points a game and hanging 81 on the Raptors, but L.A. won only 45 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

The kicker? That season and the next, despite a lack of team success, were the last times Bryant stood toe-to-toe with James in PER. Kobe's 28.11 was just a whisker shy of James' 28.17 in 2005-06, and his 26.13 topped James' 24.56 in 2006-07.

Since then, it's been all LeBron, with last season's advantage an overwhelming one -- James' 31.19 was one of the best marks in history, and Bryant's 21.95 was his worst in a decade.

How did that enormous gap close? Three big reasons stand out.

The first, obviously, is the return to health by Bryant after knee problems plagued him in the second half of last season. Bryant's 2009-10 stats now look out of place in the context of the rest of his career, with a five-year run in the mid-20s in PER interrupted by a sudden plunge to 21.95 a year ago. (Remember, by the way, that we're looking at regular-season stats. Bryant's brilliance in the Western Conference finals a year ago doesn't count here.)

Bryant certainly has become more shot-happy, with his usage rate his highest since the mad gunning of the 2005-06 campaign. But health seems to be the major reason for his surge -- compared with a year ago, he's converting more shots, turning it over less, rebounding more. Basically, he's just playing better all over. So why wouldn't he be more aggressive with the ball?

Moreover, focusing on his shot frequency is keying on the wrong end of the floor. L.A. is third in the league in offensive efficiency despite not having Andrew Bynum and getting almost nothing from the point guard spot (Derek Fisher and Steve Blake both having single-digit PERs). It's the Lakers' defense that has been more costly.

Alas, from a career perspective, the bigger PER shift this year has been not from Kobe but from LeBron. The second big reason for the gap closing this season is James' move to the Heat, which has reduced his touches enough to materially impact his PER. Compared with a year ago, James and Bryant have basically swapped usage rates, so that Bryant, not James, now leads the league by a wide margin in that category. Thus, although James still produces more points per shot attempt, Bryant now averages more points per minute.

As for our third reason, it's the biggest, and it's also the simplest: James just hasn't played as well as in the past. For that, we can look first at his sky-high turnover rate. James has made miscues on 11.8 percent of the possessions he has used this season, a far cry from his usual mark of about 9.0 percent. In past seasons, turnover ratio has given James an edge in the head-to-head comparison with Bryant, but it's a major negative for LeBron this season.

Similarly, James' rebound rate has been oddly diminished in his new digs. His 10.2 rebound rate still ranks among the best among perimeter players, but he was over 11 for three straight years in Cleveland.

And you can go right down the list -- to the .467 shooting mark, his lowest since his rookie year, or the dramatic reduction in steals, or the career-low blocked shots (just 14 this year, and half as many per game as his last three years in Cleveland) … you get the idea.

Despite Miami's improved play of late, not all those issues have vanished. For instance, James has 30 turnovers in his past seven games despite playing mostly horrible defensive teams. He has blocked four shots the entire month and averages less than a steal per game. The only really notable change of late has been in his rebound rate, which has soared back to Cleveland-era levels this month.

Therefore, the CliffsNotes version of what happened is that Kobe has recovered to his normal level, while James' play has sunk back to Kobe's level -- and that's what makes the debate interesting again.

There's only one problem: The debate is only truly interesting if the two players stay at the top of the standings while remaining at the pinnacle of players at their respective positions. At the moment, you could find considerable debate on both propositions. This is unfortunate because we've spent the past two seasons breathlessly debating a "Who's better?" question that wasn't particularly close. It would be a shame if we lost interest just as the answer became less clear-cut.

[DAF86]

diego while you're at it, can you post this article? http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-101217&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dholling er_john%26page%3dPERDiem-101217

[Cry Havoc]

LeBron moves to an entirely new system with a new team and completely different offensive/defensive schemes, and his numbers fluctuate, his turnovers go up, etc. Shocking. That never happens in the NBA.

[endrity]

diego while you're at it, can you post this article? http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-101217&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dholling er_john%26page%3dPERDiem-101217

Yeah, I'd love to read this one too. Thanks a lot if anyone posts it.

[poop]

kobe is the better and more dangerous player

[mystargtr34]

Thanks diego :toast