deibero
01-03-2011, 02:55 PM
VERY INSIGHTFUL ARTICLE ON THE SPURS D...
http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2011/01/03/monday-musings-spurs-show-off-elite-d/?eref=twitter_feed
Monday Musings: Spurs show off elite D
This Spurs team isn't shy about agressiving helping on defense, having, so far, forced turnovers on about 14.2 percent of opponent possessions, the 10th-highest mark in the league. (US PRESSWIRE)
I went into the last week of NBA action with the goal of answering one question: What is wrong with San Antonio’s defense?
The Spurs have spent basically the entire season in the top 10 in points allowed per possession, but they were showing significant cracks heading into a three-game stretch against the Lakers, Mavericks and Thunder — three of the league’s top 10 offensive teams. In the seven games before that trio of toughies, the Spurs had given up more points per possession than the league average — not their team average, but the higher league average — six times. Opponents were shooting better than 40 percent from deep, putting San Antonio on pace to allow one of the highest three-point shooting marks in league history.
Sure, the Spurs were 26-4 at that point, sporting the best offense in the league. But there were problems, and I wanted to figure out their origin.
And then the Spurs shut down all three teams. They held all three to a points-per-possession mark better than the Spurs’ season-long average, and they reduced the Lakers and Thunder into a mess of bricks and turnovers that would have made even the Bucks blush. Those three teams shot a combined 92-of-249 (37 percent) from the floor, and the Lakers and Thunder — two of the league’s best at avoiding turnovers — coughed it up 35 times between them against the Spurs.
The Mavs were playing without Dirk Nowitzki, so San Antonio’s solid win in Dallas wasn’t a surprise. But in shutting down the Lakers and Thunder at home, the Spurs may have signaled to the league that they can still bring top-shelf defense when they are motivated. And if they really can do that, it would be fair to call San Antonio the clear-cut favorite in the West right now. The Spurs suddenly have a huge lead in the race for home-court advantage, and their two top challengers are dealing with serious injuries (Dallas) and semi-ugly infighting (the Lakers, regressing into 2007-era bickering in the wake of a blowout home loss Sunday against the Grizzlies).
The way the Spurs defended the West’s elite last week was notable. This was not the staid Spurs defense of the last half-decade. This is a team that helps more aggressively than any Spurs team we’ve seen in a long while. At times, they almost look as if they are over-helping — with a big man running up to contain a dribbler who hasn’t really broken free yet, and as a result leaving an opening somewhere else. But right when I find myself yelling about that overeager initial help — and right when the offensive team is ready to attack that opening — another defender is scrambling into position to cover for his teammate. The Spurs, if you’ll pardon a rare cliché, really are a whirling dervish of rotations and spread-out arms and deflections and wings working their tails off to box out big men for rebounds.
This is no longer a team that stresses staying home on your man and the avoidance of gambling in the pursuit of forcing a long two-point jumper and grabbing a defensive rebound. The numbers reflect that. The Spurs have forced turnovers on about 14.2 percent of opponent possessions, the 10th-highest mark in the league. This is a quantum leap for San Antonio. The Spurs have finished in the top 10 in opponent turnover rate just twice in the Tim Duncan era, and they’ve ranked 20th or worse eight times — including in each of the last four seasons before this one.
They’ve taken a hit in defensive rebounding, since all the rotating can leave them a bit out of position when a shot finally goes up. The Spurs rank eighth in defensive rebounding rate, which would be outstanding for anyone else but would be San Antonio’s worst ranking since the 2002-03 season. (The Spurs finished in the top three five times between 2003-04 and last season.)
Gregg Popovich deserves a lot of credit for retooling the defense to fit his personnel. The Spurs start an undersized power forward (DeJuan Blair) who moves his feet well and is super-active on defense. They’re stocked with quick, long-armed wing players (Manu Ginobili, George Hill) with a knack for getting hands in passing lanes. This roster forces Popovich to play smallish lineups more than most teams do, and given that reality, it makes sense to push for more activity on defense.
When you think of San Antonio this way, you can make sense of the hot three-point shooting from their opponents. First, teams don’t shoot threes very often against them; only four teams allow fewer three-point tries per game, according to Hoopdata. Part of the Spurs’ aggressive style is to run shooters off three-point shots, even if it creates a temporary crisis someplace else.
As for the high shooting percentage, my best guess is that those good looks are the product of patient possessions in which smart teams dribble-drive and swing the ball until an opening finally appears from deep late in the shot clock. Those looks will be available against clubs like San Antonio that rotate aggressively, but they’ll only be there if opponents have the confidence to wait for those looks instead of hoisting the semi-open long two or contested floater the Spurs want you to take three seconds earlier. One piece of evidence for this theory: Teams are torching the Spurs late in the shot clock. Only the Warriors have allowed a higher field-goal percentage than San Antonio on shots taken with three or fewer seconds left on the 24-second clock, and Spurs opponents are actually shooting better in that situation than on shots attempted in the middle of the shot clock — a trend that goes against what we usually see.
So perhaps a high opponents’ three-point percentage is the price San Antonio is paying for its broader defensive excellence. That doesn’t mean it’s not a concern, particularly against good teams. Even in losses, the Mavs, Lakers and Thunder hit a combined 19-of-53 (37 percent) from deep against San Antonio.
The Spurs have to clean this up, and some regression to the mean will probably help them. But that’s really the only thing they have to clean up right now. They’ve served notice that they might really be the best team in the league.
http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2011/01/03/monday-musings-spurs-show-off-elite-d/?eref=twitter_feed
Monday Musings: Spurs show off elite D
This Spurs team isn't shy about agressiving helping on defense, having, so far, forced turnovers on about 14.2 percent of opponent possessions, the 10th-highest mark in the league. (US PRESSWIRE)
I went into the last week of NBA action with the goal of answering one question: What is wrong with San Antonio’s defense?
The Spurs have spent basically the entire season in the top 10 in points allowed per possession, but they were showing significant cracks heading into a three-game stretch against the Lakers, Mavericks and Thunder — three of the league’s top 10 offensive teams. In the seven games before that trio of toughies, the Spurs had given up more points per possession than the league average — not their team average, but the higher league average — six times. Opponents were shooting better than 40 percent from deep, putting San Antonio on pace to allow one of the highest three-point shooting marks in league history.
Sure, the Spurs were 26-4 at that point, sporting the best offense in the league. But there were problems, and I wanted to figure out their origin.
And then the Spurs shut down all three teams. They held all three to a points-per-possession mark better than the Spurs’ season-long average, and they reduced the Lakers and Thunder into a mess of bricks and turnovers that would have made even the Bucks blush. Those three teams shot a combined 92-of-249 (37 percent) from the floor, and the Lakers and Thunder — two of the league’s best at avoiding turnovers — coughed it up 35 times between them against the Spurs.
The Mavs were playing without Dirk Nowitzki, so San Antonio’s solid win in Dallas wasn’t a surprise. But in shutting down the Lakers and Thunder at home, the Spurs may have signaled to the league that they can still bring top-shelf defense when they are motivated. And if they really can do that, it would be fair to call San Antonio the clear-cut favorite in the West right now. The Spurs suddenly have a huge lead in the race for home-court advantage, and their two top challengers are dealing with serious injuries (Dallas) and semi-ugly infighting (the Lakers, regressing into 2007-era bickering in the wake of a blowout home loss Sunday against the Grizzlies).
The way the Spurs defended the West’s elite last week was notable. This was not the staid Spurs defense of the last half-decade. This is a team that helps more aggressively than any Spurs team we’ve seen in a long while. At times, they almost look as if they are over-helping — with a big man running up to contain a dribbler who hasn’t really broken free yet, and as a result leaving an opening somewhere else. But right when I find myself yelling about that overeager initial help — and right when the offensive team is ready to attack that opening — another defender is scrambling into position to cover for his teammate. The Spurs, if you’ll pardon a rare cliché, really are a whirling dervish of rotations and spread-out arms and deflections and wings working their tails off to box out big men for rebounds.
This is no longer a team that stresses staying home on your man and the avoidance of gambling in the pursuit of forcing a long two-point jumper and grabbing a defensive rebound. The numbers reflect that. The Spurs have forced turnovers on about 14.2 percent of opponent possessions, the 10th-highest mark in the league. This is a quantum leap for San Antonio. The Spurs have finished in the top 10 in opponent turnover rate just twice in the Tim Duncan era, and they’ve ranked 20th or worse eight times — including in each of the last four seasons before this one.
They’ve taken a hit in defensive rebounding, since all the rotating can leave them a bit out of position when a shot finally goes up. The Spurs rank eighth in defensive rebounding rate, which would be outstanding for anyone else but would be San Antonio’s worst ranking since the 2002-03 season. (The Spurs finished in the top three five times between 2003-04 and last season.)
Gregg Popovich deserves a lot of credit for retooling the defense to fit his personnel. The Spurs start an undersized power forward (DeJuan Blair) who moves his feet well and is super-active on defense. They’re stocked with quick, long-armed wing players (Manu Ginobili, George Hill) with a knack for getting hands in passing lanes. This roster forces Popovich to play smallish lineups more than most teams do, and given that reality, it makes sense to push for more activity on defense.
When you think of San Antonio this way, you can make sense of the hot three-point shooting from their opponents. First, teams don’t shoot threes very often against them; only four teams allow fewer three-point tries per game, according to Hoopdata. Part of the Spurs’ aggressive style is to run shooters off three-point shots, even if it creates a temporary crisis someplace else.
As for the high shooting percentage, my best guess is that those good looks are the product of patient possessions in which smart teams dribble-drive and swing the ball until an opening finally appears from deep late in the shot clock. Those looks will be available against clubs like San Antonio that rotate aggressively, but they’ll only be there if opponents have the confidence to wait for those looks instead of hoisting the semi-open long two or contested floater the Spurs want you to take three seconds earlier. One piece of evidence for this theory: Teams are torching the Spurs late in the shot clock. Only the Warriors have allowed a higher field-goal percentage than San Antonio on shots taken with three or fewer seconds left on the 24-second clock, and Spurs opponents are actually shooting better in that situation than on shots attempted in the middle of the shot clock — a trend that goes against what we usually see.
So perhaps a high opponents’ three-point percentage is the price San Antonio is paying for its broader defensive excellence. That doesn’t mean it’s not a concern, particularly against good teams. Even in losses, the Mavs, Lakers and Thunder hit a combined 19-of-53 (37 percent) from deep against San Antonio.
The Spurs have to clean this up, and some regression to the mean will probably help them. But that’s really the only thing they have to clean up right now. They’ve served notice that they might really be the best team in the league.