Manu20
01-03-2011, 05:43 PM
Its gonna be COLD next week!!!
This is the Dallas NWS discussion
BEYOND DAY 7...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
MASSIVE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE US NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUILD 500MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 580DM OVER THIS REGION BY
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL SET UP ALLOWING
EXTREMELY COLD AIR TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF INDICATES A MASSIVE 1069MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER
WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN ITS
00Z RUN AND STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS A 1063MB HIGH.
THE FIRST SHOT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON
MONDAY BUT THE TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AT THAT TIME. WHAT MAKES THIS SETUP SO CONCERNING IS NOT SIMPLY
THE MODEL OUTPUT BUT RATHER THE IMPACT THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER ALASKA WOULD HAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CROSS POLAR FLOW TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXTREMELY COLD AND DENSE AIR
OVER WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF INDICATES HIGHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN
THE 20S BY WED/THU WHICH IS VERY CONCERNING. PROLONGED
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BEGIN TO
HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS ON SOUTHERN INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS PIPES.
WHILE THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED...THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
This is the Norman, OK NWS discussion
MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.
This is the Dallas NWS discussion
BEYOND DAY 7...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
MASSIVE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE US NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUILD 500MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 580DM OVER THIS REGION BY
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL SET UP ALLOWING
EXTREMELY COLD AIR TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF INDICATES A MASSIVE 1069MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER
WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN ITS
00Z RUN AND STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS A 1063MB HIGH.
THE FIRST SHOT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON
MONDAY BUT THE TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AT THAT TIME. WHAT MAKES THIS SETUP SO CONCERNING IS NOT SIMPLY
THE MODEL OUTPUT BUT RATHER THE IMPACT THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER ALASKA WOULD HAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CROSS POLAR FLOW TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXTREMELY COLD AND DENSE AIR
OVER WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF INDICATES HIGHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN
THE 20S BY WED/THU WHICH IS VERY CONCERNING. PROLONGED
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BEGIN TO
HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS ON SOUTHERN INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS PIPES.
WHILE THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED...THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
This is the Norman, OK NWS discussion
MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.