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01-08-2011, 06:50 AM
Rating the NBA's top benches
John Hollinger breaks down the league's top benches (PER Diem: Jan. 7, 2011)
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46
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Ron Turenne/Getty Images
The Raptors have only won 12 games this season, but don't blame Leandro Barbosa and the bench.
Saturday's tussle between Houston Rockets and Toronto Raptors was an unusual game on multiple levels. Despite injuries, the Raptors' starters came out and smoked the Rockets in the first quarter. But in the second, Houston's second unit thrashed the Toronto subs to the tune of 42-21, and the Rockets kept that up the rest of the game.
So well did Houston's subs play, in fact, that they stayed on the court as a unit for much of the 114-105 win. All five Houston subs played at least 23 minutes, and they rolled as a unit for the first nine minutes of the fourth quarter. The Rockets finished with a 65-23 edge in bench points and a 19-5 advantage in bench assists.
And, as it turns out, this win was surprising on another level, too. It was one of the few times this season the league's most productive bench has been outplayed. Toronto might not be awash in glory this season, but the Raptors can still gloat in at least one respect.
Toronto is the NBA leader in a category I created called "bench rating," which essentially estimates the PER (player efficiency rating) a team receives from its subs. It works pretty simply: Divide starts by total games and multiply by minutes, and you have a coarse estimate of a player's "bench minutes." Multiply that by PER, sum across all the players, and divide by team bench minutes, and you have the team's bench PER for the season.
Although this gives us a handy thumbnail, it still leaves ample room for argument over which bench is the absolute best.
The chart shows every team's bench rating, and, as you can see, the Rockets are no slouches, either. They made a case for themselves last week against the Raptors, and they might see even more production in the future. Rookie Patrick Patterson has hardly played but looked monstrous in that win over the Raptors. Additionally, spark-plug point guard Aaron Brooks just returned from an ankle injury and should boost the rating of Houston's second unit further.
Because the Rockets already have several productive subs -- Brad Miller made the heaviest contribution to the team's lofty rating, but Chase Budinger, Courtney Lee and Jordan Hill also have been pluses -- one can make a strong argument that Houston employs the league's top subs.
As for Toronto, its second unit gets a big boost from the production of Leandro Barbosa, a dynamite scoring threat as a sixth man who plays virtually no defense. Additionally, Jose Calderon and Amir Johnson helped that rating with early-season flourishes off the pine, but both players now start and are likely to continue starting even when the Raptors who are walking wounded return.
It's still a strong second unit going forward. Jerryd Bayless, Sonny Weems, improving rookie Ed Davis and emerging defensive force Joey Dorsey combine with Barbosa to form a solid second five. It's the lack of a star in the first unit that keeps the Raptors lottery-bound.
Bench rating -- 2010-11 (through Wednesday's games)
Team Rate
Toronto 14.24
Denver 13.89
Philadelphia 13.59
San Antonio 13.37
Houston 13.37
Dallas 13.33
L.A. Lakers 13.32
Detroit 13.27
Orlando 13.13
Sacramento 13.01
Oklahoma City 12.98
Phoenix 12.85
Cleveland 12.58
Charlotte 12.37
Chicago 12.24
Washington 12.18
New York 12.10
Milwaukee 11.90
Atlanta 11.55
Memphis 11.29
Boston 11.27
Indiana 11.17
Portland 11.14
Utah 11.11
Golden State 10.96
New Jersey 10.50
Minnesota 10.49
L.A. Clippers 10.46
Miami 10.30
New Orleans 10.14
At the same time, a few other teams have a strong claim on the title of "league's best bench." Denver has scoring in bunches with the backcourt combo of Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith, plus an ace 3-point shooter in Al Harrington, a shot-blocking menace in Chris Andersen and a surprisingly effective rookie find in Gary Forbes. Even though Birdman and Harrington have missed time with injuries from which they are now returning, Denver still ranks second in bench rating, and it should surprise nobody if the Nuggets finish the season on top of the list.
Philadelphia's second unit also rates strongly, although this owes more to the efforts of a single player. Thaddeus Young has a much stronger NBA Sixth Man Award case than most realize, leading all bench players in EWA (estimated wins added) and rocking an 18.30 PER as a combo forward off the pine. Furthermore, the Sixers are 9.75 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than off it, according to basketballvalue.com. High-scoring guard Louis Williams is the other strong contributor here, but the other reserves have had a negligible impact.
If I had to nominate one bench unit as the best, however, it wouldn't be any of those -- it would be San Antonio's. The San Antonio Spurs are fifth in bench rating but have a few key issues in their favor.
First, they get as much defense as offense from the second unit. And despite how good their starters are, the Spurs have played better with the subs. Key reserves George Hill (plus-9.65) and Matt Bonner (plus-5.75) have strong positive adjusted plus/minus ratings, and fellow subs Antonio McDyess and Gary Neal have been consistent contributors.
Moreover, the Spurs' bench contributions might only increase. Rookies Tiago Splitter and James Anderson have hardly played, but both have shown enough in their limited time to suggest they could be very helpful pieces in the second half of the season.
OK, that's how the top group looks. Now, what about the league's worst second units?
It won't shock anyone to see Miami front and center in that discussion. The Heat have received decent production from only two subs, and one of them -- forward Udonis Haslem -- is out for the season. James Jones, the other, has made 3-pointers by the bushel but has contributed little else. And Joel Anthony, their most heavily used frontcourt reserve, has 19 baskets in 35 games and a PER of 7.89.
The Heat can at least make a credible argument that they'll get a little better -- Mike Miller and Erick Dampier have hardly played, and those two should improve the rating in the second half of the season.
A similar case can be made for the injury-riddled Timberwolves. Minnesota just got Jonny Flynn and Martell Webster back and soon will have Anthony Tolliver back in the mix. Deleting the likes of Sebastian Telfair, Wayne Ellington and Kosta Koufos from the rotation will go a long way toward lifting the Wolves' 27th-ranked bench rating.
Another team with a poor ranking that should improve a bit is New Jersey. Its current rating is somewhat self-inflicted, given the reluctance to play Troy Murphy, but it's also the result of poor wing depth. The recent trade for Sasha Vujacic should fix that, especially once Anthony Morrow returns, and this week's decision to start Derrick Favors ahead of Kris Humphries will add an artificial boost to the bench rating at the expense of the starting five.
That leaves us two candidates for worst.
The Clippers can make a strong case as the weakest bench, with veterans such as Rasual Butler, Ryan Gomes, Brian Cook and Randy Foye contributing little. L.A. at least can make the case that the eventual return of Chris Kaman will give it a potent front-line duo, pairing him with ever-productive but underappreciated Craig Smith.
But no such argument exists for the lowly Hornets.
It seems ironic now, but the bench was a big plus in the team's 8-0 start. It has done shockingly little of note since then, however. The Hornets, as I wrote on Thursday, have only three players with a PER above 12. That they rank 30th in bench rating, even though they've hardly had any injuries, offers a shocking portent of what might happen if a few ankles twist the wrong way. The starting five have played every game thus far, because the understudies look decidedly unready.
Hornets fans will argue that they at least get a little D from subs Jarrett Jack, Willie Green and Jason Smith, but the Clippers, Heat and Wolves (especially when Corey Brewer plays) can make similar arguments. Additionally, the plus/minus numbers buttress my argument. The Hornets have been horrific any time Chris Paul or David West leaves the floor.
Amazingly, New Orleans could make the playoffs anyway, thanks to Paul's league-leading PER and one of West's best seasons. Having good starters will always matter a lot more than having a strong second unit, which is why the Hornets will win more games than the Raptors this year.
Nonetheless, a good bench can make quite a bit of difference at the margins. San Antonio, for instance, has the best record in the league and looks like a title threat, but the Hornets are likely one-and-done in the postseason. Do the math, and the benches explain most of the difference.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-110107
John Hollinger breaks down the league's top benches (PER Diem: Jan. 7, 2011)
EmailPrintComments
46
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Ron Turenne/Getty Images
The Raptors have only won 12 games this season, but don't blame Leandro Barbosa and the bench.
Saturday's tussle between Houston Rockets and Toronto Raptors was an unusual game on multiple levels. Despite injuries, the Raptors' starters came out and smoked the Rockets in the first quarter. But in the second, Houston's second unit thrashed the Toronto subs to the tune of 42-21, and the Rockets kept that up the rest of the game.
So well did Houston's subs play, in fact, that they stayed on the court as a unit for much of the 114-105 win. All five Houston subs played at least 23 minutes, and they rolled as a unit for the first nine minutes of the fourth quarter. The Rockets finished with a 65-23 edge in bench points and a 19-5 advantage in bench assists.
And, as it turns out, this win was surprising on another level, too. It was one of the few times this season the league's most productive bench has been outplayed. Toronto might not be awash in glory this season, but the Raptors can still gloat in at least one respect.
Toronto is the NBA leader in a category I created called "bench rating," which essentially estimates the PER (player efficiency rating) a team receives from its subs. It works pretty simply: Divide starts by total games and multiply by minutes, and you have a coarse estimate of a player's "bench minutes." Multiply that by PER, sum across all the players, and divide by team bench minutes, and you have the team's bench PER for the season.
Although this gives us a handy thumbnail, it still leaves ample room for argument over which bench is the absolute best.
The chart shows every team's bench rating, and, as you can see, the Rockets are no slouches, either. They made a case for themselves last week against the Raptors, and they might see even more production in the future. Rookie Patrick Patterson has hardly played but looked monstrous in that win over the Raptors. Additionally, spark-plug point guard Aaron Brooks just returned from an ankle injury and should boost the rating of Houston's second unit further.
Because the Rockets already have several productive subs -- Brad Miller made the heaviest contribution to the team's lofty rating, but Chase Budinger, Courtney Lee and Jordan Hill also have been pluses -- one can make a strong argument that Houston employs the league's top subs.
As for Toronto, its second unit gets a big boost from the production of Leandro Barbosa, a dynamite scoring threat as a sixth man who plays virtually no defense. Additionally, Jose Calderon and Amir Johnson helped that rating with early-season flourishes off the pine, but both players now start and are likely to continue starting even when the Raptors who are walking wounded return.
It's still a strong second unit going forward. Jerryd Bayless, Sonny Weems, improving rookie Ed Davis and emerging defensive force Joey Dorsey combine with Barbosa to form a solid second five. It's the lack of a star in the first unit that keeps the Raptors lottery-bound.
Bench rating -- 2010-11 (through Wednesday's games)
Team Rate
Toronto 14.24
Denver 13.89
Philadelphia 13.59
San Antonio 13.37
Houston 13.37
Dallas 13.33
L.A. Lakers 13.32
Detroit 13.27
Orlando 13.13
Sacramento 13.01
Oklahoma City 12.98
Phoenix 12.85
Cleveland 12.58
Charlotte 12.37
Chicago 12.24
Washington 12.18
New York 12.10
Milwaukee 11.90
Atlanta 11.55
Memphis 11.29
Boston 11.27
Indiana 11.17
Portland 11.14
Utah 11.11
Golden State 10.96
New Jersey 10.50
Minnesota 10.49
L.A. Clippers 10.46
Miami 10.30
New Orleans 10.14
At the same time, a few other teams have a strong claim on the title of "league's best bench." Denver has scoring in bunches with the backcourt combo of Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith, plus an ace 3-point shooter in Al Harrington, a shot-blocking menace in Chris Andersen and a surprisingly effective rookie find in Gary Forbes. Even though Birdman and Harrington have missed time with injuries from which they are now returning, Denver still ranks second in bench rating, and it should surprise nobody if the Nuggets finish the season on top of the list.
Philadelphia's second unit also rates strongly, although this owes more to the efforts of a single player. Thaddeus Young has a much stronger NBA Sixth Man Award case than most realize, leading all bench players in EWA (estimated wins added) and rocking an 18.30 PER as a combo forward off the pine. Furthermore, the Sixers are 9.75 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than off it, according to basketballvalue.com. High-scoring guard Louis Williams is the other strong contributor here, but the other reserves have had a negligible impact.
If I had to nominate one bench unit as the best, however, it wouldn't be any of those -- it would be San Antonio's. The San Antonio Spurs are fifth in bench rating but have a few key issues in their favor.
First, they get as much defense as offense from the second unit. And despite how good their starters are, the Spurs have played better with the subs. Key reserves George Hill (plus-9.65) and Matt Bonner (plus-5.75) have strong positive adjusted plus/minus ratings, and fellow subs Antonio McDyess and Gary Neal have been consistent contributors.
Moreover, the Spurs' bench contributions might only increase. Rookies Tiago Splitter and James Anderson have hardly played, but both have shown enough in their limited time to suggest they could be very helpful pieces in the second half of the season.
OK, that's how the top group looks. Now, what about the league's worst second units?
It won't shock anyone to see Miami front and center in that discussion. The Heat have received decent production from only two subs, and one of them -- forward Udonis Haslem -- is out for the season. James Jones, the other, has made 3-pointers by the bushel but has contributed little else. And Joel Anthony, their most heavily used frontcourt reserve, has 19 baskets in 35 games and a PER of 7.89.
The Heat can at least make a credible argument that they'll get a little better -- Mike Miller and Erick Dampier have hardly played, and those two should improve the rating in the second half of the season.
A similar case can be made for the injury-riddled Timberwolves. Minnesota just got Jonny Flynn and Martell Webster back and soon will have Anthony Tolliver back in the mix. Deleting the likes of Sebastian Telfair, Wayne Ellington and Kosta Koufos from the rotation will go a long way toward lifting the Wolves' 27th-ranked bench rating.
Another team with a poor ranking that should improve a bit is New Jersey. Its current rating is somewhat self-inflicted, given the reluctance to play Troy Murphy, but it's also the result of poor wing depth. The recent trade for Sasha Vujacic should fix that, especially once Anthony Morrow returns, and this week's decision to start Derrick Favors ahead of Kris Humphries will add an artificial boost to the bench rating at the expense of the starting five.
That leaves us two candidates for worst.
The Clippers can make a strong case as the weakest bench, with veterans such as Rasual Butler, Ryan Gomes, Brian Cook and Randy Foye contributing little. L.A. at least can make the case that the eventual return of Chris Kaman will give it a potent front-line duo, pairing him with ever-productive but underappreciated Craig Smith.
But no such argument exists for the lowly Hornets.
It seems ironic now, but the bench was a big plus in the team's 8-0 start. It has done shockingly little of note since then, however. The Hornets, as I wrote on Thursday, have only three players with a PER above 12. That they rank 30th in bench rating, even though they've hardly had any injuries, offers a shocking portent of what might happen if a few ankles twist the wrong way. The starting five have played every game thus far, because the understudies look decidedly unready.
Hornets fans will argue that they at least get a little D from subs Jarrett Jack, Willie Green and Jason Smith, but the Clippers, Heat and Wolves (especially when Corey Brewer plays) can make similar arguments. Additionally, the plus/minus numbers buttress my argument. The Hornets have been horrific any time Chris Paul or David West leaves the floor.
Amazingly, New Orleans could make the playoffs anyway, thanks to Paul's league-leading PER and one of West's best seasons. Having good starters will always matter a lot more than having a strong second unit, which is why the Hornets will win more games than the Raptors this year.
Nonetheless, a good bench can make quite a bit of difference at the margins. San Antonio, for instance, has the best record in the league and looks like a title threat, but the Hornets are likely one-and-done in the postseason. Do the math, and the benches explain most of the difference.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-110107