Booharv
01-15-2011, 02:25 PM
Why Big Ben measures up to Brady
The Pittsburgh quarterback has excelled in a more explosive offense
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855
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
Jason Bridge/US Presswire
Ben Roethlisberger could tie Tom Brady with three championships this year.
By the end of the 1977 NFL season, Pittsburgh Steelers star Terry Bradshaw could have had every reason in the world to feel like the world's most overlooked quarterback.
Over the previous six years, he had posted a stellar 49-17 regular-season record and an equally impressive 8-4 postseason mark. Two of those playoff wins were Super Bowl victories and in both of those contests he threw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass that helped seal the win for the Steelers.
Despite this abundance of success, Bradshaw still seemingly had not convinced the world he was among the best at his position. Proof of this can be found in the 1977 All-Pro and Pro Bowl voting.
Bradshaw had guided his team to a 9-5 record and the AFC Central Division title and yet was beaten out for those postseason honors not just by the likes of Bob Griese and Roger Staubach (the consensus choices as the top quarterbacks of that season), but also by lesser talents such as Pat Haden and Jim Hart.
Near the end of the 2010 season, Ben Roethlisberger could be in exactly the same kind of overlooked boat as his Black and Gold predecessor. Like Bradshaw, he has a superb regular-season record (69-29, a .704 win percentage that is third-best of any quarterback since 1970) and a dominant 8-2 postseason mark that includes two Super Bowl titles.
Also like Bradshaw, Roethlisberger is coming off a campaign where his team went 9-3 with him under center and won a hard-fought division title. Still, it wasn't enough for him to be named one of the six quarterbacks going to the Pro Bowl.
While that certainly doesn't seem fair on its face, what makes it even more unjust is that a closer look at the game tape and metrics shows that Big Ben was just as good this season as AFC Pro Bowl starter -- and all but certain 2010 NFL MVP -- Tom Brady.
A closer look at the game tape and metrics shows that Big Ben was just as good this season as AFC Pro Bowl starter -- and all but certain 2010 NFL MVP -- Tom Brady.
There are three metric areas that work best to illustrate this:
The first is the short pass yards per attempt metric (YPA) (a short pass being one thrown 10 yards or less from the line of scrimmage). Brady's 7.0 YPA total here is excellent, but Roethlisberger's 7.5 YPA is a bit better. One could almost call this a push.
Second on the list is vertical YPA (vertical being defined as a pass thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Brady posted an 11.6 YPA mark, but that was nearly equaled by Roethlisberger's 11.4 YPA. Again, pretty much a push.
Third is bad decision percentage (a bad decision defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near-turnover such a dropped interception). Brady has always excelled here and his 1.3 percent mark this year meets his historically high standards. Although it tops Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total, and should seemingly give Brady a significant statistical edge, two things need to be noted here.
First, seven-tenths of a percentage point over the course of a 500-attempt season (which is roughly the attempt pace that both Brady and Roethlisberger were on this year, if Roethlisberger's attempt total was pro-rated over a 16-game schedule) equals between three and four extra bad decisions. In other words, an extra mistake by Roethlisberger every four to five games.
Now consider that Roethlisberger and Brady play in offenses that have markedly different passing philosophies. The New England Patriots switched to a dink-and-dunk offense this year and that led to 70.7 percent of Brady's throws occurring at the short-pass depth level.
To put 70.7 percent into perspective, consider that when Matt Cassel filled in for the injured Brady for almost the entire 2008 season, short passes accounted for only 65.3 percent of New England's pass attempts. The Patriots' brain trust scaled things back dramatically for Cassel and yet they still dink and dunked it more this year than they did that season.
Now contrast those figures to Roethlisberger's 55.9 percent short pass total. This indicates that the Steelers' offense is absolutely not short-pass centric, but the contrast becomes even easier to see when comparing the vertical pass percentages for each quarterback. Roethlisberger's vertical throws accounted for 37.4 percent of his attempts versus 26.8 percent of Brady's.
In other words, Roethlisberger is piloting a high-risk/high-reward offense. A solid bad decision rate for a quarterback of that nature would be in the 2.5-to-3 percent range and Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total is well below that. Brady's 1.3 percent mark is just as superb (a 2.0 percent total is considered good for dink/dunk offenses) but when this context is applied, it is clear that his lead in this metric is fairly negligible at best.
And that's the story with pretty much any measurement one can come up with to compare Roethlisberger and Brady both for this season and their careers. The biggest exception to this might be that Brady has three Super Bowl rings to Roethlisberger's two, but the second-biggest exception is that Roethlisberger is 4½ years younger -- he has a lot more time to make up the title gap than Brady has to extend it.
It also could mean that Roethlisberger has a chance to mimic Bradshaw in one other important way. As overlooked as the Blond Bomber was in 1977, after he piloted his team to two more Super Bowl wins, he finally received his due by being named the first-string quarterback on the NFL's All-Decade Team of the 1970s.
The timing of Roethlisberger's career means that he won't have a chance to beat out Brady for All-Decade honors, but if he guides the Steelers to a Super Bowl this season and ties Brady in the championship rings category, his odds of eventually surpassing Brady as the No. 1 quarterback of this generation are actually quite good.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2010/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6011130
The Pittsburgh quarterback has excelled in a more explosive offense
EmailPrintComments
855
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
Jason Bridge/US Presswire
Ben Roethlisberger could tie Tom Brady with three championships this year.
By the end of the 1977 NFL season, Pittsburgh Steelers star Terry Bradshaw could have had every reason in the world to feel like the world's most overlooked quarterback.
Over the previous six years, he had posted a stellar 49-17 regular-season record and an equally impressive 8-4 postseason mark. Two of those playoff wins were Super Bowl victories and in both of those contests he threw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass that helped seal the win for the Steelers.
Despite this abundance of success, Bradshaw still seemingly had not convinced the world he was among the best at his position. Proof of this can be found in the 1977 All-Pro and Pro Bowl voting.
Bradshaw had guided his team to a 9-5 record and the AFC Central Division title and yet was beaten out for those postseason honors not just by the likes of Bob Griese and Roger Staubach (the consensus choices as the top quarterbacks of that season), but also by lesser talents such as Pat Haden and Jim Hart.
Near the end of the 2010 season, Ben Roethlisberger could be in exactly the same kind of overlooked boat as his Black and Gold predecessor. Like Bradshaw, he has a superb regular-season record (69-29, a .704 win percentage that is third-best of any quarterback since 1970) and a dominant 8-2 postseason mark that includes two Super Bowl titles.
Also like Bradshaw, Roethlisberger is coming off a campaign where his team went 9-3 with him under center and won a hard-fought division title. Still, it wasn't enough for him to be named one of the six quarterbacks going to the Pro Bowl.
While that certainly doesn't seem fair on its face, what makes it even more unjust is that a closer look at the game tape and metrics shows that Big Ben was just as good this season as AFC Pro Bowl starter -- and all but certain 2010 NFL MVP -- Tom Brady.
A closer look at the game tape and metrics shows that Big Ben was just as good this season as AFC Pro Bowl starter -- and all but certain 2010 NFL MVP -- Tom Brady.
There are three metric areas that work best to illustrate this:
The first is the short pass yards per attempt metric (YPA) (a short pass being one thrown 10 yards or less from the line of scrimmage). Brady's 7.0 YPA total here is excellent, but Roethlisberger's 7.5 YPA is a bit better. One could almost call this a push.
Second on the list is vertical YPA (vertical being defined as a pass thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Brady posted an 11.6 YPA mark, but that was nearly equaled by Roethlisberger's 11.4 YPA. Again, pretty much a push.
Third is bad decision percentage (a bad decision defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near-turnover such a dropped interception). Brady has always excelled here and his 1.3 percent mark this year meets his historically high standards. Although it tops Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total, and should seemingly give Brady a significant statistical edge, two things need to be noted here.
First, seven-tenths of a percentage point over the course of a 500-attempt season (which is roughly the attempt pace that both Brady and Roethlisberger were on this year, if Roethlisberger's attempt total was pro-rated over a 16-game schedule) equals between three and four extra bad decisions. In other words, an extra mistake by Roethlisberger every four to five games.
Now consider that Roethlisberger and Brady play in offenses that have markedly different passing philosophies. The New England Patriots switched to a dink-and-dunk offense this year and that led to 70.7 percent of Brady's throws occurring at the short-pass depth level.
To put 70.7 percent into perspective, consider that when Matt Cassel filled in for the injured Brady for almost the entire 2008 season, short passes accounted for only 65.3 percent of New England's pass attempts. The Patriots' brain trust scaled things back dramatically for Cassel and yet they still dink and dunked it more this year than they did that season.
Now contrast those figures to Roethlisberger's 55.9 percent short pass total. This indicates that the Steelers' offense is absolutely not short-pass centric, but the contrast becomes even easier to see when comparing the vertical pass percentages for each quarterback. Roethlisberger's vertical throws accounted for 37.4 percent of his attempts versus 26.8 percent of Brady's.
In other words, Roethlisberger is piloting a high-risk/high-reward offense. A solid bad decision rate for a quarterback of that nature would be in the 2.5-to-3 percent range and Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total is well below that. Brady's 1.3 percent mark is just as superb (a 2.0 percent total is considered good for dink/dunk offenses) but when this context is applied, it is clear that his lead in this metric is fairly negligible at best.
And that's the story with pretty much any measurement one can come up with to compare Roethlisberger and Brady both for this season and their careers. The biggest exception to this might be that Brady has three Super Bowl rings to Roethlisberger's two, but the second-biggest exception is that Roethlisberger is 4½ years younger -- he has a lot more time to make up the title gap than Brady has to extend it.
It also could mean that Roethlisberger has a chance to mimic Bradshaw in one other important way. As overlooked as the Blond Bomber was in 1977, after he piloted his team to two more Super Bowl wins, he finally received his due by being named the first-string quarterback on the NFL's All-Decade Team of the 1970s.
The timing of Roethlisberger's career means that he won't have a chance to beat out Brady for All-Decade honors, but if he guides the Steelers to a Super Bowl this season and ties Brady in the championship rings category, his odds of eventually surpassing Brady as the No. 1 quarterback of this generation are actually quite good.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2010/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6011130