48MoH: Halfway to 70, but is it sustainable?

[duncan228]

Halfway to 70, but is it sustainable? (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/)
by Jesse Blanchard
48 Minutes of Hell

Halfway in, and halfway to 70, the San Antonio Spurs are on a franchise-best pace that few other teams have matched in NBA history. Yet, to believe that the Spurs can actually achieve 70 wins one would have to be, as head coach Gregg Popovich put it–drunk (http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2011/01/01/spurs-use-3-on-1-approach-to-durant/).

Up to this point everything has been a perfect storm of relatively good health for the Spurs, the opposite for the opposition (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/san-antonio-spurs-101-dallas-mavericks-89-we-fully-realize-that-was-not-that-dallas-mavericks), and some coin flip wins (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/san-antonio-spurs-18-11).

A team whose core is aged this much, who treat the occasional regular season game with such nonchalance (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/23600/gregg-popovich-rests-his-players), cannot possibly be expected to keep up with this pace, right? In theory, eventually this team will take its foot off the gas and suffer a few let downs.

But still, 35-6…

Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/halfway-to-70-but-is-it-sustainable#more-12424)

[703 Spurz]

Don't want or need 70 wins. Get the 1 seed and fuck the rest of it

[tdunk21]

don't want or need 70 wins. Get the 1 seed and fuck the rest of it

+1

[lefty]

Not gonna happen

[it's me]

Not gonna happen

This..... but who cares, HCA is all that matters.

[spurs10]

hope not...rest after hca...

[honestfool84]

Another reason that the Spurs will not reach 70 is that Popovich simply will not pursue it. Given a choice, Popovich will always rest starters in favor of playoff success over regular season glory.

But to think the Spurs will eventually take their foot off the gas is to assume that they have it on there in the first place. This is not the post-Larry Brown Pistons or Boston Celtics, playing their top six players 35-45 minutes on a nightly basis.


this. what's frightening (for other teams around the league, i would imagine... maybe incorrectly, though), is that the Spurs aren't slamming their foot on the pedal. they're just playing GREAT ball.

[Bulwark]

hope not...rest after hca...

Agree. Rest after HCA is secured and hopefully that won't take more than 60-62 wins. Of course, this has the added benefit of giving our 2nd unit more burn before the playoffs which would hopefully help their confidence and rhythm

[liltex2010]

Very Very True.

[VBM]

Rest won't be coming for awhile. Boston, Miami, Orlando and LA will all be within striking distance in April. At best, SA could hope for rest after the April 6 game against Sac-Town.

[Bito Corleone]

Don't want or need 70 wins. Get the 1 seed and fuck the rest of it

Of course they don't need it, but do you honestly not want it? Are you saying you'd actually be upset about it if the Spurs win 70 games?

[Phenomanul]

Ginobili is taking more threes and choosing not to drive as much - to conserve his health - by design. When the Spurs finally place their "foot on the pedal" in the playoffs that will mean that Ginobili will be far more agressive attacking the rim. That's why I'm not really worried that he is not attacking as hard (as good as he's been).

Health is key.

[Blake]

Don't want or need 70 wins. Get the 1 seed and fuck the rest of it

As a fan I want 70 wins + the title.

I don't really know why any fan wouldn't want that.

[rmt]

The pace will fall off. So far they've had lots of home games and not many back-to-backs. Hope for health and HCA.

[Galileo]

The Spurs should be better in 2nd half than 1st half:

1) Blair will be better

2) Anderson will be better

3) Splitter will be better

4) The rodeo road trip

5) Spurs historically better in 2nd half as Pop gears for playoffs.

6) Light minutes for starters

[boutons_deux]

WGAFF

All I care about is 16W in the playoffs.

[Blake]

The Spurs should be better in 2nd half than 1st half:

1) Blair will be better

2) Anderson will be better

3) Splitter will be better

4) The rodeo road trip

5) Spurs historically better in 2nd half as Pop gears for playoffs.

so you are saying the Spurs should be better because two non-factor players will be better non-factor players and because they will have a lot of road games.

k.

[VBM]

There must be some members of the Colts coaching staff posting in here

[Lakers999]

us laker fans are hoping you guys lose HCA to us.... im not hoping for an injury but i am hoping for some mental fatigue out of your primary weapon in ginobili...exhaustion on duncan and hoping parker goes back to the inconsistency in 2010.

[Cry Havoc]

so you are saying the Spurs should be better because two non-factor players will be better non-factor players and because they will have a lot of road games.

k.

So either you are calling Blair a non-factor, or Anderson a non-factor. Are you calling our every game starter for the 41 games this season a non-factor? Or are you calling an injured player who was playing extremely well off the bench a non-factor? If the former, wtf. If the latter, how can Anderson play worse than not being on the court?

As for the rest, well, it's up for debate, but I think the case can be made that the Spurs can definitely tighten up a lot more on defense than they have been. Doubt they'll go 35-6 in the second half, but they could start 28-4 and then have Pop shut them off if we have clinched the #1 seed by then.

[DeadlyDynasty]

Rest won't be coming for awhile. Boston, Miami, Orlando and LA will all be within striking distance in April. At best, SA could hope for rest after the April 6 game against Sac-Town.

This.

SAS also has a lot of road games left.

[Rummpd]

Although EXTREMELY unlikely would it not be interesting to see Pop and the Spurs at 71-9 heading into a back to back at the end of the year (first game vs. Lakers) and see how Pop would play it?

[Blake]

So either you are calling Blair a non-factor, or Anderson a non-factor. Are you calling our every game starter for the 41 games this season a non-factor? Or are you calling an injured player who was playing extremely well off the bench a non-factor? If the former, wtf. If the latter, how can Anderson play worse than not being on the court?

I would think Anderson would be the obvious non-factor since not playing makes him a non-factor. Him getting any kind of minutes will make him better for sure.

Not sure though how he would be a factor in wins/losses when he comes back. If all the Spurs are healthy, please elaborate on Anderson's potential value in the 2nd half of the season.

[Cry Havoc]

I would think Anderson would be the obvious non-factor since not playing makes him a non-factor. Him getting any kind of minutes will make him better for sure.

Not sure though how he would be a factor in wins/losses when he comes back. If all the Spurs are healthy, please elaborate on Anderson's potential value in the 2nd half of the season.

You said:

"so you are saying the Spurs should be better because two non-factor players will be better non-factor players and because they will have a lot of road games."

Anderson was indeed injured in the first half of the season. How would his return not make us a better team? At the very least, one that's deeper and able to make more flexible rotations to match up better with teams we struggle against?

[Blake]

The Spurs should be better in 2nd half than 1st half:



so you are saying the Spurs should be better because......

rif

[firecar]

we needn't 70. we need champion

[Phenomanul]

Personally, I want both a 70-win season and a Spurs' Championship. But not the first at the expense of the latter. Pop knows what's ultimately more important and so do the players. Futhermore, Pop hates distractions... and as the season wears on, this topic will naggingly fall in that category.

Who knows how he'll manage it without disrupting the chemistry and rhythm this team has built.

[FromWayDowntown]

It's absolutely not going to happen.

But I will say that the schedule itself isn't necessarily a big impediment to getting there, if only because the Spurs' schedule -- at least in terms of who they're playing, without regard to where or when they play them -- is taking a turn for the better. The Spurs' strength of schedule (measured by the total winning percentages of their opponents) was .517 in the first half (9th most difficult in the league). Looking at who they have left, based on current winning percentages, the strength of schedule for the 2nd half is only .490. Only 2 teams in the West -- Dallas and Oklahoma City -- have "easier" schedules the rest of the way.

[honestfool84]

The Spurs' strength of schedule (measured by the total winning percentages of their opponents) was .517 in the first half (9th most difficult in the league). Looking at who they have left, based on current winning percentages, the strength of schedule for the 2nd half is only .490. Only 2 teams in the West -- Dallas and Oklahoma City -- have "easier" schedules the rest of the way.

wow. that's crazy. and that's saying that i don't think the Spurs are "trying" really hard right now.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Great article, thanks 228. Nice to see you around here again! :toast


this. what's frightening (for other teams around the league, i would imagine... maybe incorrectly, though), is that the Spurs aren't slamming their foot on the pedal. they're just playing GREAT ball.

Yup, I'd call this chemistry ball - these guys just click perfectly together.

This team has shown at least two higher gears of intensity that they've only brought out under pressure so far, and as we enter SPAM and then the playoffs we'll see more of those gears. They're not stetching themsleves much yet, and that's a great sign.

As long as the team's health holds up, I see us going all the way to the Finals this year. I've rarely seen a Spurs team gel as early and as solidly as this group has. In fact, don't think I've ever seen a Spurs team this deep and cohesive (2005 was as cohesive but not nearly so deep, and 2007 they only found the cohesion late in the season).

[SpursNextRomanEmpire]

Just want a championship

[Barfunk]

ginobili is taking more threes and choosing not to drive as much - to conserve his health - by design. when the spurs finally place their "foot on the pedal" in the playoffs that will mean that ginobili will be far more agressive attacking the rim. That's why i'm not really worried that he is not attacking as hard (as good as he's been).

Health is key.

+1

[ShoogarBear]

The best thing is all this is happening and Pop hasn't had to alter the master plan of minutes distribution, with the exception of Manu playing a couple MPG more than he would have probably liked. And Manu should be able to rest up for the playoffs with Anderson coming back.

[cheguevara]

hope not...rest after hca...

I'm hopin by game #70 which would be around March 19, we'd have HCA locked up.

guys would get a month res!!!!

[DMC]

Not going to happen unless the bench become monsters, because after HCA is established, Pop sits his starters most of the time.

[OrEmuN]

Priority will be health over 70 wins. If we continue to have good health to our main players, we will be able to have a great chance of bringing home the 5th ring.

35-6 is great in this manner - we do not have to get desperate and chase wins like last seasons. Once we get an significant lead over the rest of the Western conference, i figure that the big 3 minutes will start to drop significantly and our role players will get more minutes to gain more experience and chemistry. The rest of the West will jostle for seeding like last reason and we will be well rested when playoffs come around. Health is the key. I am sure Pop understands that and will do his best to conserve the big 3 instead of going for some record.

[DieHardSpursFan1537]

I'm glad Pop doesn't give a shit about winning 70 wins.....

[cheguevara]

62-65 wins. (If healthy)

anybody expecting more is delusional

[BlairForceDejuan]

To be fair, tieing/breaking the Bulls record IS pretty much the Regular Season Championship. Every great team in the future would be compared with the 11' Spurs.

[FromWayDowntown]

Just past halfway and +7 in the loss column over the entire conference.

In fact, the Spurs are +7 in the loss column over every one else in the league other than the Celtics.

[Blake]

so if the Spurs maintain a 7 game lead with 5 or 6 games to go, at what point do Tim, Manu etc all sit down?

Do they not play at all and let guys like Quinn get 35+ minutes? Do they just play the 1st half only?

I'll be extremely curious to see how that plays out if that happens.

[hater]

To be fair, tieing/breaking the Bulls record IS pretty much the Regular Season Championship. Every great team in the future would be compared with the 11' Spurs.

not if they fail to win the championship.

throughout history they will be remembered as "the spurs team that won 72 but failed miserably in the playoffs"

[Blake]

not if they fail to win the championship.

throughout history they will be remembered as "the spurs team that won 72 but failed miserably in the playoffs"

yeah, that might be worse than the team that won 67 but failed miserably in the first round against the warriors.

[PM5K]

It's a shame everybody drinks the same kool-aid.

That's what's wrong with the league nowadays, there isn't anyone like Jordan and the Bulls that wanted to not just be good, not to just be great, but be Historic.