jestersmash
01-22-2011, 05:39 PM
Examining the playoff races
Spurs lead race for home-court advantage in the playoffs (PER Diem: Jan. 20, 2011) Spurs lead race for home-court advantage in the playoffs (PER Diem: Jan. 20, 2011) [Hollinger]
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2011/0120/nba_g_rondo_duncan1_576.jpg
Rajon Rondo and Tim Duncan have their teams in position for home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Imagine this scene: The Lakers and Heat are about to meet in Game 7 of the 2011 NBA Finals. The nation - including NBA commissioner David Stern - is overcome with excitement about the epic battle that's set to ensue. Ratings are through the roof , and hype is off the charts.
Just one question: Where's the game being played? Just one question: Where's the game being played?
Halfway through the season, one of the biggest pieces of business that remains unsettled is the site for a potential seventh game of the NBA Finals. As last season proved, this is no trivial matter. It's hard to imagine how LA would have won in 2010 if the final game had been played in Boston rather than the friendly confines of the Staples Center.
Right now, however, it's a dead heat, no pun intended. The Lakers and Heat both have 13 losses, although Miami would appear to have a slight advantage. The Heat have three more home games than road games the rest of the way, and the Lakers' soft early-season schedule is about to fill up with more difficult opponents. Also, Miami won the first meeting between the teams and would own the tiebreaker with a victory in the rematch on March 10.
Nonetheless, the Lakers have advantages. They're healthier and, in any case, are less vulnerable to being derailed by injury than the Heat -- who have dropped four straight since recent ankle sprains to Chris Bosh and LeBron James . In comparison, the Lakers held up quite well in Andrew Bynum's absence for most of the first half of the season.
Sum it all up, and the Heat and Lakers project to finish just one game apart in the current playoff odds , with Miami getting the edge. But the Lakers likely would swing that projection to their side with a head-to-head win in March.
Of course, the Spurs and Celtics fans are screaming, "What about us?" Fair enough. I led with Miami-LA because that's the tightest race, but there's a very good chance we'll end up with Spurs-Celtics instead.
San Antonio, with a dominant 36-6 start, projects to finish with the league's best record at 63-19 and have home-court advantage throughout the postseason. San Antonio has a 3½-game lead on Boston for this distinction, and we're not projecting the race to get any closer. Although San Antonio's record will cool off because it has 24 road games left and just 16 home games, Boston also has a large home-road discrepancy (18 home games left, 23 on the road) that will work against it in the second half of the season.
Instead, the Celtics may get pulled back into the Lakers-Heat muddle, although only if they drop their remaining head-to-head encounters with those teams. Boston has the upper hand on Miami for the top seed in the East by virtue of winning the first two meetings between the teams. The Heat's recent losing streak means the Celtics have four fewer losses, a commanding position with a half-season left to play, and you can basically add a fifth game if they can at least split the final two meetings to claim the tiebreak.
As far as a Boston rematch with the Lakers goes, both regular-season meetings will come in the next three weeks. The Lakers probably need to sweep to have a good chance at home-court advantage in a Finals against the Celtics, as winning both games would pull them within two games of Boston in the loss column and give them the tiebreaker. Otherwise, it appears the Lakers would have too much ground to make up.
The races at the top remain the most interesting, especially because the No. 1 and No. 2 spots in each conference are all but certain to go to the four teams noted above. But below the radar, a few others warrant mentioning.
Nos. 3-4-5 in the East
While the Celtics and Heat skirmish at the top, the Magic, Bulls and Hawks are fighting it out to grab the last two home-court positions in the East. The consensus opinion is that the Magic and Bulls have better teams, but Atlanta isn't going away quietly. After Tuesday's upset in Miami, the Hawks are 28-15 and a half-game ahead of Orlando in the standings and a half-game behind Chicago for third.
Additionally, Atlanta has more home games left than the other two teams, albeit against more difficult opposition. The Hawks also hold a 2-1 season-series lead on Orlando, with a home game left on March 30 to clinch the tiebreaker. Finally, the Hawks get a break on the schedule with the Bulls: All three meetings between the teams are in March, and two of them are in Atlanta. If Atlanta just holds serve at home, it will own the tiebreaker and pick up a game on Chicago.
Chances are, that still won't be enough: We're pegging Atlanta to land two games behind the Bulls and three behind the Magic. But the Hawks have been largely omitted from the NBA conversation despite winning a playoff round each of the past two years and compiling 53 victories last season. If either the Bulls or Magic stumble, they will face the unpleasant prospect of visiting the ATL for a first-round rubber match. And if the Hawks can somehow pull the trigger on a deal for a point guard (cough Billups cough), watch out.
Nos. 3-4-5-6-7 in the West
Out West, the intrigue is less in who makes it than in where it ends up. Seven Western Conference teams have established at least an 80 percent chance of making the playoffs, with the race basically spread into three groups. At the top, the Spurs and Lakers are out ahead of the pack and, barring a stumble that not a single person sees coming, pretty much locked into the first and second seeds, respectively. At the bottom, Portland, Memphis and Houston are slugging it out for the right to be San Antonio's cannon fodder in Round 1.
In the middle, there's everyone else. Dallas, Oklahoma City, Utah, Denver and New Orleans all are scrambling for position in a race that exists in multiple dimensions. There's a Northwest Division race between Oklahoma City, Utah and Denver, with the winner assured a top-four seed but not necessarily home-court advantage. There's an avoid-the-Lakers race at the bottom of the group, because the No. 7 seed will get a far more difficult first-round fate than the No. 6.
And, of course, home-court advantage is at stake for whichever two of these five teams finish with the best record. Today we're projecting Oklahoma City and New Orleans as those clubs, but it has changed virtually every day depending on the assorted teams' highs and lows. Dallas, in particular, looks undervalued by the playoff odds now that Dirk Nowitzki has returned. With the fewest losses of the five and the softest remaining schedule (albeit the most road-heavy one), the Mavs seem well positioned to claim the third seed.
If so, the Northwest Division champ will own No. 4 but won't have the home-court edge against the No. 5 club unless it finishes with at least the same record. It remains plausible that a third Southwest Division team, New Orleans, could edge past all three Northwest Division clubs and host a first-round playoff series as the No. 5 seed.
The other wild card here, as always, is Denver. If the Nuggets decide to hang on to Carmelo Anthony after the Nets spurned them on Wednesday, they project to challenge Oklahoma City for the Northwest Division crown. (The playoff odds aren't real fond of Utah, by the way, and watching the Jazz's moribund loss to New Jersey on Wednesday night made it a difficult point to argue.)
If Melo is dealt, however, the Nuggets may be a factor another way. With three games left against Utah and two against Oklahoma City, a depleted Denver squad would give a boost to its Northwest Division rivals and, potentially, the upper hand on Dallas and New Orleans. Mark it down as just one more way that the "As the Melo Turns" soap opera may impact the Western Conference race.
Spurs lead race for home-court advantage in the playoffs (PER Diem: Jan. 20, 2011) Spurs lead race for home-court advantage in the playoffs (PER Diem: Jan. 20, 2011) [Hollinger]
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2011/0120/nba_g_rondo_duncan1_576.jpg
Rajon Rondo and Tim Duncan have their teams in position for home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Imagine this scene: The Lakers and Heat are about to meet in Game 7 of the 2011 NBA Finals. The nation - including NBA commissioner David Stern - is overcome with excitement about the epic battle that's set to ensue. Ratings are through the roof , and hype is off the charts.
Just one question: Where's the game being played? Just one question: Where's the game being played?
Halfway through the season, one of the biggest pieces of business that remains unsettled is the site for a potential seventh game of the NBA Finals. As last season proved, this is no trivial matter. It's hard to imagine how LA would have won in 2010 if the final game had been played in Boston rather than the friendly confines of the Staples Center.
Right now, however, it's a dead heat, no pun intended. The Lakers and Heat both have 13 losses, although Miami would appear to have a slight advantage. The Heat have three more home games than road games the rest of the way, and the Lakers' soft early-season schedule is about to fill up with more difficult opponents. Also, Miami won the first meeting between the teams and would own the tiebreaker with a victory in the rematch on March 10.
Nonetheless, the Lakers have advantages. They're healthier and, in any case, are less vulnerable to being derailed by injury than the Heat -- who have dropped four straight since recent ankle sprains to Chris Bosh and LeBron James . In comparison, the Lakers held up quite well in Andrew Bynum's absence for most of the first half of the season.
Sum it all up, and the Heat and Lakers project to finish just one game apart in the current playoff odds , with Miami getting the edge. But the Lakers likely would swing that projection to their side with a head-to-head win in March.
Of course, the Spurs and Celtics fans are screaming, "What about us?" Fair enough. I led with Miami-LA because that's the tightest race, but there's a very good chance we'll end up with Spurs-Celtics instead.
San Antonio, with a dominant 36-6 start, projects to finish with the league's best record at 63-19 and have home-court advantage throughout the postseason. San Antonio has a 3½-game lead on Boston for this distinction, and we're not projecting the race to get any closer. Although San Antonio's record will cool off because it has 24 road games left and just 16 home games, Boston also has a large home-road discrepancy (18 home games left, 23 on the road) that will work against it in the second half of the season.
Instead, the Celtics may get pulled back into the Lakers-Heat muddle, although only if they drop their remaining head-to-head encounters with those teams. Boston has the upper hand on Miami for the top seed in the East by virtue of winning the first two meetings between the teams. The Heat's recent losing streak means the Celtics have four fewer losses, a commanding position with a half-season left to play, and you can basically add a fifth game if they can at least split the final two meetings to claim the tiebreak.
As far as a Boston rematch with the Lakers goes, both regular-season meetings will come in the next three weeks. The Lakers probably need to sweep to have a good chance at home-court advantage in a Finals against the Celtics, as winning both games would pull them within two games of Boston in the loss column and give them the tiebreaker. Otherwise, it appears the Lakers would have too much ground to make up.
The races at the top remain the most interesting, especially because the No. 1 and No. 2 spots in each conference are all but certain to go to the four teams noted above. But below the radar, a few others warrant mentioning.
Nos. 3-4-5 in the East
While the Celtics and Heat skirmish at the top, the Magic, Bulls and Hawks are fighting it out to grab the last two home-court positions in the East. The consensus opinion is that the Magic and Bulls have better teams, but Atlanta isn't going away quietly. After Tuesday's upset in Miami, the Hawks are 28-15 and a half-game ahead of Orlando in the standings and a half-game behind Chicago for third.
Additionally, Atlanta has more home games left than the other two teams, albeit against more difficult opposition. The Hawks also hold a 2-1 season-series lead on Orlando, with a home game left on March 30 to clinch the tiebreaker. Finally, the Hawks get a break on the schedule with the Bulls: All three meetings between the teams are in March, and two of them are in Atlanta. If Atlanta just holds serve at home, it will own the tiebreaker and pick up a game on Chicago.
Chances are, that still won't be enough: We're pegging Atlanta to land two games behind the Bulls and three behind the Magic. But the Hawks have been largely omitted from the NBA conversation despite winning a playoff round each of the past two years and compiling 53 victories last season. If either the Bulls or Magic stumble, they will face the unpleasant prospect of visiting the ATL for a first-round rubber match. And if the Hawks can somehow pull the trigger on a deal for a point guard (cough Billups cough), watch out.
Nos. 3-4-5-6-7 in the West
Out West, the intrigue is less in who makes it than in where it ends up. Seven Western Conference teams have established at least an 80 percent chance of making the playoffs, with the race basically spread into three groups. At the top, the Spurs and Lakers are out ahead of the pack and, barring a stumble that not a single person sees coming, pretty much locked into the first and second seeds, respectively. At the bottom, Portland, Memphis and Houston are slugging it out for the right to be San Antonio's cannon fodder in Round 1.
In the middle, there's everyone else. Dallas, Oklahoma City, Utah, Denver and New Orleans all are scrambling for position in a race that exists in multiple dimensions. There's a Northwest Division race between Oklahoma City, Utah and Denver, with the winner assured a top-four seed but not necessarily home-court advantage. There's an avoid-the-Lakers race at the bottom of the group, because the No. 7 seed will get a far more difficult first-round fate than the No. 6.
And, of course, home-court advantage is at stake for whichever two of these five teams finish with the best record. Today we're projecting Oklahoma City and New Orleans as those clubs, but it has changed virtually every day depending on the assorted teams' highs and lows. Dallas, in particular, looks undervalued by the playoff odds now that Dirk Nowitzki has returned. With the fewest losses of the five and the softest remaining schedule (albeit the most road-heavy one), the Mavs seem well positioned to claim the third seed.
If so, the Northwest Division champ will own No. 4 but won't have the home-court edge against the No. 5 club unless it finishes with at least the same record. It remains plausible that a third Southwest Division team, New Orleans, could edge past all three Northwest Division clubs and host a first-round playoff series as the No. 5 seed.
The other wild card here, as always, is Denver. If the Nuggets decide to hang on to Carmelo Anthony after the Nets spurned them on Wednesday, they project to challenge Oklahoma City for the Northwest Division crown. (The playoff odds aren't real fond of Utah, by the way, and watching the Jazz's moribund loss to New Jersey on Wednesday night made it a difficult point to argue.)
If Melo is dealt, however, the Nuggets may be a factor another way. With three games left against Utah and two against Oklahoma City, a depleted Denver squad would give a boost to its Northwest Division rivals and, potentially, the upper hand on Dallas and New Orleans. Mark it down as just one more way that the "As the Melo Turns" soap opera may impact the Western Conference race.