TrueHoop: Do the Spurs play fast, or do they make you play fast?

[lurker23]

Here's an interesting post from Henry Abbott, with the original article he's referencing coming from Rohan Cruyff at sbnation.com. Cruyff has made a new metric that looks at how long into the shot clock teams take their shots (and, similarly, how quickly their opponents take shots).

By this measure, the Spurs are the 19th fastest offense in the NBA. However, on the defensive side of the ball, Spurs' opponents take shots earlier in the shot clock than any other team in the league (rank #1, or #30, depending on how you look at it.)

http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/24165/do-the-spurs-play-fast-or-do-they-make-you-play-fast

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/1/24/1952725/nba-pace-speed-spurs-suns-knicks

Both Abbott and Cruyff have theories on how the Spurs make teams shoot so quickly, but both seem somewhat flabbergasted/intrigued by this concept.

So, I pose it to you, the people who watch the Spurs play more than anyone else: why do teams shoot earlier in the shot clock against the Spurs than against any other team in the league?

[Quasar]

Many commentators mentioned that the opposing teams should not rush shots against the spurs and take their time to get a better shot instead. they often mentioned how teams hit much better against the Spurs by moving the ball around and waiting for gaps in the D.

But it is not always easy to talk the talk and walk the talk. It is the first time I hear about teams 'forcing' opponents to shoot faster though! Amazing example of how insightful statistics can be sheused properly. If teams take this into account, they could easily neutralize the Spurs by simply asking their players to consciously shoot later into the shot clock.

Perhaps the schemes encourage opponents to shoot by giving them a lot of 'OK' looks at the basket. They then take advantage by taking only better shots themselves, instead of ok ones. That certainly sound plausible and brings many things to light.

1. I observed that rotations were a tad slow this year (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=170816), with a player often drifting near the paint and leaving his man open near the arc. That spurs player would then need to rush out to attempt a block in desperation mode. This is most evident with RJ but I saw it happen with many others too. Always thought this was bad coverage or bad D but...

2. The fact that the spurs opponents shoot a lot of 3's is probably due to this defensive strategy. Moreover, this probably has a hand in the fact the Spurs opponents lead the league in 3pt shooting percentage (as discussed in Solid D's thread (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=169446)). Perhaps the Spurs found a formula where they would come out on top despite giving up 3s at a good percentage.

3. This explains most of the Spurs losses: teams that beat them simply shot the 3 at an amazingly high rate, thereby breaking the aforementioned formula. E.g. new Orleans and NY. Milwaukee probably gave us a lot of trouble due to this too! It is early here so I am not up to double confirming this with hard numbers.

[YODA]

Many commentators mentioned that the opposing teams should not rush shots against the spurs and take their time to get a better shot instead. they often mentioned how teams hit much better against the Spurs by moving the ball around and waiting for gaps in the D.

But it is not always easy to talk the talk and walk the talk. It is the first time I hear about teams 'forcing' opponents to shoot faster though! Amazing example of how insightful statistics can be sheused properly. If teams take this into account, they could easily neutralize the Spurs by simply asking their players to consciously shoot later into the shot clock.

Perhaps the schemes encourage opponents to shoot by giving them a lot of 'OK' looks at the basket. They then take advantage by taking only better shots themselves, instead of ok ones. That certainly sound plausible and brings many things to light.

1. I complained that rotations were a tad slow this year (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=170816), with a player often drifting near the paint and leaving his man open near the arc. That spurs player would then need to rush out to attempt a block in desperation mode. This is most evident with RJ but I saw it happen with many others too. Always thought this was bad coverage or bad D but...

2. The fact that the spurs opponents shoot a lot of 3's is probably due to this defensive strategy. Moreover, this probably has a hand in the fact the Spurs opponents lead the league in 3pt shooting percentage (as discussed in Solid D's thread). Perhaps the Spurs found a formula where they would come out on top despite giving up 3s at a good percentage.

3. This explains most of the Spurs losses: teams that beat them simply shot the 3 at an amazingly high rate, thereby breaking the aforementioned formula. E.g. new Orleans and NY. Milwaukee probably gave us a lot of trouble due to this too! It is early here so I am not up to double confirming this with hard numbers.


1. If Spurs D is slow to rotate, why would a team not shoot early?Another reason migh to the numbers of turnover an dfast breaks points versus Spurs. Especially when the game is already won or lost early on.

2. correct me if im wrong, But werent the Spurs once( in years past) the best at defending the 3 point shot? This could be a very key point. How do we go from best at defending the 3 to having oppenents have best % at the 3? Something to mull over

3. I think its more that the SPurs beat themselves then the other teams playing. In these games, the Spurs shot horrible and Interior D was horrid.

[TDMVPDPOY]

the competition is just shit

[Quasar]

Hey Yoda,

1. That's the point, slow rotations to 'tempt' opponents into taking a shot upon an early, partial look at the basket. However iirc, the Spurs have great transition defense, so it definitely cannot be fastbreaks that are skewing the numbers.

2. agree, that's probably due to their new winning formula. 0.403 is an amazing rate at which to give up the 3 though. Nevertheless, I suspect they give up more long 2's than 3's.

3. NOH shooting 12/15 on 3pt certainly had a hand in pop giving up early. However NY shot 8/23 on 3pt. They probably made a lot of long 2s

[anonoftheinternets]

I think this was already discussed somewhere. the spurs have a scrambling defense... that relies on the general impatience of most NBA teams. This is why when they eventually do break down, against great ball movement, it leads to a WIDE open shot that most professionals would make at a high clip. Everytime they show that statistic of the spurs being worst at opponent 3 Pt FG %, they shouild also show how many attempts they make against the spurs.

[jsandiego]

Very interesting concept.

I think it might have to do with our new brand of offense. Lots of motion, PnR, and of biggest change, long outlet passes off the defensive rebound.

The long rebound makes it feel like a fast paced game, but the tempo is slowed down into our half-court motion offense if TP doesn't find a seam. I think this mentally lulls other teams into a fast-paced game. Fast outlets, fast ball-handling guards in Manu, TP, and GHill -- that keeps the pressure on the opposing defense, even if we retreat into our half-court motion offense. They no longer are lulled into the 4-down, slow-it-down game.

So now, instead of slowing pace, going 4-down, and winning it on a grind-it-out style, NOW we immediately look for a long outlet pass and push for a one-man fast break. When it's not there, we don't look to shoot fast, we just look to shoot a good shot. Other teams buy into the fast pace, but aren't as disciplined to look for the best shot.

Pretty cool that we can beat teams forcing them to play at a faster pace than they wanted, when in the past it was the exact opposite. That's a direct result of coaching by Pop and the Basketball IQ of the players and their willingness to do whatever it takes to win.

[mazerrackham]

2. The fact that the spurs opponents shoot a lot of 3's is probably due to this defensive strategy. Moreover, this probably has a hand in the fact the Spurs opponents lead the league in 3pt shooting percentage (as discussed in Solid D's thread (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=169446)). Perhaps the Spurs found a formula where they would come out on top despite giving up 3s at a good percentage.


This is actually incorrect. While Spurs opponents are shooting at a high percentage from 3, the Spurs defense prevents opposing teams from taking many 3 point shots. Spurs opponents are attempting the 4th least 3-pointers of any team this year. http://hoopdata.com/oteamshotlocs.aspx This is why I'm not as worried about the high percentage opponents are shooting. My guess would be that Pop is coaching to run opponents off of the three-point line off of double-teams, and in general they're doing a good job of it, but when a rotation is a bit slow or missed, the opponents get a very good shot...

[wildbill2u]

I think the coaches in the league have found it much easier to get a shot early against the Spurs than after they have their defense set. When we are playing good D and the rotations are working, the other teams simply have a problem getting a good shot off.

Granted the Spurs weren't playing great D early in the year, but the last series of games the other teams have been shooting a woeful % (under 40%).

[YODA]

Ok, You all got me interested in looking up the stats.

Currently, the opposiing teams are shooting a whooping .401 in 3 pt shooting versus the spurs(2nd best in league). While this may sound bad, they are only attempting 15.9 3 points attempts a game, which is currently #4 in least amount of attempts. To give you some depth in this, the #1 team is allowing 15.5 only 3 pt attempts and the worse team is allowing 21.2 3 point attempts a game.
Note*( LA LAKER WERE the 2nd most attempts)

Whats does these stats tell us?
While teams are shooting a higher percentage versus the Spurs, they still are allowing some of the least amount of attempts in the league.

Another Interesting Stat I found was Free Throws.
Cureently the Spurs are allowing the least amount of Free throws in the league.They are Currently #1 at 20.1 attempts per game. In Contrast, The Warriers are giving up the most at 29.7 attempts per game. This is a stat I have not heard anyone talk about.

To go more in depth, I also see that The oppossing teams are also 3rd worse in the league at shooting Freethrows in San Antonio, shooting 73.9% veruss the Spurs. In contrast, the top % is 78.5% and lowest being 73.3%( Heat).



To sum up, We defend the 3 point line well, but teams have made the most of thier oppertunities thus far. We also seldom foul, which probably means we gain alot of differential in freethrow attempts a game. To make things worse for oppenents, When we do foul, they are only making 73.3% of thier free throws.

Simply put.
1. We defend the 3 point line
2. We seldom foul
3. oppenents arent taking advantage thier free throws


Now stop making me look up stats

[Man In Black]

If teams take this into account, they could easily neutralize the Spurs by simply asking their players to consciously shoot later into the shot clock.

This statement needs to be clarified. It's not just simply a matter of shooting later in the clock, it's about having a really good shot late in the clock. It's the fact that upon observation,the Spurs have defended pretty well for the shot clock, that makes other players who think this is the best shot I'm going to get, so I should shoot it. Often that's done EARLY. That's what makes the opponent play into a Spurs pace. If it was easy as JUST shooting late, teams would get their best 1 on 1 player, go flat and spread out and let the guy play 1 on 1 late in the clock, kind of like what Manu does with 8 seconds or less, but that alone won't work for a whole game.

Kenny Smith said that the Spurs make people look dumb, because many players they play against, lack the discipline to play basketball effectively against them. The Spurs just play golf. They play the course.

The ones that have the discipline to get a good shot late are the ones the Spurs need to keep a watchful eye for. Boston has that kind of discipline. Orlando has it at times, so does the LAL. But Boston, they stick to it. The other guys have supreme players at their position so they tend to go EGO mode and at times it works, and at other times, it does not.

[Quasar]

Obviously, I meant to keep moving the ball till a better shot could be found. Only good teams / teams playing well can accomplish this, probably why the Spurs record is what it is.

[ShoogarBear]

This is one of the most insightful "new" stats to come around in some time. It would be very interesting to see a "average time of possession" stat for each game and see how that correlates with things like FG%, turnovers, and offensive rebounds.

[YODA]

Blahhh...I looked it up, might as well share the info. some interesting stats some may not have noticed

Spurs Stats as if 1-24-11

5th in points per game at- 103.9
12th in points allowed per game at- 96.6

3 point shooting2nd in 3 pt % at- 39.1%
6th in 3 pt attempts per game 21.3

Field Goal %
7th in Field goal %- 46.8%
9th in Field goals made- 38.1 per game
13th in Field goals attempted- 81.3 per game

Free throws 12th in Free throw %- 77.5%
11th in Free throw attempted- 25.1 per game
7th in free throws made -19.5 per game

REBOUNDS7th in total rebounds- 43.2
5th in Def rebounds- 32.5
16th in offensive rebounds- 10.7

Assists4th in assistes per game- 23.1 per game

STEALS7th in steals per game- 8.1

TURNOVERS9th in turnvoers per game- 13.3

BLOCKS 14th in blocks per game- 5.0

Fouls1st fouls game given (least)


OPPOSING TEAM STATS

9th in FIELD GOAL %- 44.9%
25th in FG attempted 84.0
19th in FG made- 37.7

OPPOSING 3 pts shooting
2nd in 3 pt shooting %- 40.1
4th in 3pt attempts per game- 15.9
17th in 3 pts made per game- 6.4

Opposing teams Free throws3rd( worse) in Free throw %- 73.9
1st in #free attempts per game-20.1 (least amount)
1st in Free throws made per game- 14.8 ( least amount)

[duncan228]

The Spurs are not playing that fast – but teams try to against them (http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/24/the-spurs-are-not-playing-that-fast-%E2%80%93-but-teams-try-to-against-them/)
Kurt Helin

Much has been made of how much faster the San Antonio Spurs are playing this season — they are playing more than a possession a game faster than last season, and that number has come down over the last month or so. At the start of the season, the Spurs were surprisingly fast.

Except that they are not. Sort of. It’s that teams are playing faster against them, a fascinating bit of research shows (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/1/24/1952725/nba-pace-speed-spurs-suns-knicks).

But first, some explanation. A lot of the analysis of the new basketball statistics is based around per-possession data. Meaning what matters is not how many points you score per game but how many per possession, because at the end of the game both teams will have the same number of possessions (give or take a couple). Whichever team uses their possessions most efficiently will win. (If you think this is all that new, know that Dean Smith broke down his stats that way at North Carolina.)

A possession is defined as when one team takes control of the ball until the other team takes control of the ball. So, it’s your possession until you make a basket or the other team makes a steal or gets a rebound (usually). But the flaw with this definition of possession is that if your team gets an offensive rebound (or two) it counts as one possession. That means teams that don’t turn the ball over or get a lot of offensive rebounds show up as playing slower than they really do (see the Portland Trail Blazers, as Henry Abbott (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop)will be more than happy to tell you).

With brings us back to Rohan Cruyff’s work at SB Nation Monday (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/1/24/1952725/nba-pace-speed-spurs-suns-knicks). He went back and looked at how teams shoot in relation to the shot clock. Do they shoot early in the shot clock or late on average? He used the data at 82games (http://82games.com/) on shots within the shot class and came up with a Speed Index graph.

What he found is not that Spurs are playing any faster — they are 19th in the league in how fast they shoot against the clock, so basically middle of the pack.

But teams shoot faster against the Spurs than any team in the league. Golden State is second, then the Lakers are third. The Lakers also are not the fastest team in the leauge.

I have a theory as to why teams shoot so fast against the Lakers and Spurs — those are two good defensive teams once they get set. Both teams are disciplined about positioning and forcing penetration to help. So it benefits teams to push the pace on them and try to get early offense before they get set. You don’t want Manu Ginobili up in you guiding you to a waiting Tim Duncan, or Ron Artest in your face pushing you to the long arms of Andrew Bynum. But that is what those teams do well if you let them get set.

As for who shoots fastest in the clock? The Suns, who did you expect? Go check out the post for a lot more detail, including how the Magic are the most defensively driven team in the Association.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/24/the-spurs-are-not-playing-that-fast-%E2%80%93-but-teams-try-to-against-them/

[tuncaboylu]

You can make comments on the stats however you like.

What's the result of stats: The Spurs make the opponent teams play faster? How do they do it?
By coming back to defense slowly and you allow too many fast break points. But this is not valid for Spurs.

By letting the opponent players good looks very early and they shoot? Spurs also doesn't allow that.

Maybe opponent teams are trying to push the tempo against old(!) Spurs and they're shooting too early? It's a possibility

There are numbers, and the author used it. But they're useless, you can't find a solution by checking every stats. Because every stats doesn't have a useful result. For example the opponent teams are shooting bad free-throws against Spurs. So what? You can't find a conclusion by using that stats.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I think the way to explain this paradox is to break this stat game by game that the SPurs have played. ALthough I don't have the time to do it, I believe that the Spurs, being the team that adjusts the most to an opponent by playing a variety of games - fast breaking/ slow half court/ terrific man-to-man swarming defense /very good team defense actually adjusts its pace the most thoroughly among most teams.

The under-rated thing about the Spurs this year is not just that it is faster than previous games, but that..the team has added a fast element to its game as much as it plays its traditional offenses now and then.

The same analysis of the opponents' game should yield that where some teams (during back to backs) had their way against Spurs' tired defense, through ability to zip through it and score quickly - New Orleans, Orlando for e.g... some managed to match the Spurs' pace - New York, Phoenix, T'wolves for e.g. and so on.. cumulatively meant that the pace against the Spurs was quicker.

Note that the Spurs have yet to play some deliberate offenses such as those of Detroit or New Jersey as yet.

In other words, this very interesting stat hides a few things when taken in cumulatively and it would be better to do an individual breakdown of how the Spurs have defended various teams.