The Remainder of the Season

[GSH]

For those of you who habitually just scan the first few lines of a thread, the short version is that you should expect a few more losses in the latter part of the season, than in the first half - but only partly due to their schedule.

In case no one has looked that far ahead, 10 of the Spurs' remaining 35 games are B2B's - and in 7 of the 10, the second night will be on the road. So far this season, the Spurs are .500 on the second night of B2B's. Expect to lose some of those games.

We also have 3 games left against the Lakers, 2 against Miami, and 1 each against Dallas and Boston - not to mention games against some solid playoff teams like OKC, Chicago, and Atlanta. There are some definite loss opportunities there.

The last two games of the season are a B2B - both on the road, against the Lakers and Phoenix. There is a very good chance that the Spurs will have wrapped up the best record in the West by that time (see below) so those games will probably be meaningless to us, but LA and Phoenix will both probably be scrambling for playoff seeding. Those two games could very well be throw-aways.

The Spurs really have three goals now: stay healthy, solidify their rotations so they are playing their best ball in April, and lock up home court advantage in the Western Conference. (Hopefully in the entire NBA.) So while it might be nice to finish this season with 70 wins, doing so won't put them any closer to winning another Championship.

So how likely are the Spurs to finish with the best record in the Western Conference? Well if they went just 21-14 over the remaining games (a dismal .600 record the rest of the way), they would finish with a 61-21 record overall. The two nearest teams, LA and Dallas, would have to go 29-5 or 30-5, respectively, to overtake the Spurs for the best record in the West. In other words, the Spurs are in position to almost coast to the best record, and therefore home court advantage, in the Western Conference.

Realistically, if the Spurs lose 11-12 games between now and the end of the regular season, they will almost certainly lock up HCA throughout the playoffs. After their tremendous start to this season, that would have a lot of Spurs fans pulling out hair and insisting the the end is near. But it would certainly be the smartest thing to do, if it increases their chances of being 100% healthy for the playoffs.

The Spurs are the only team to have started the same five players in every game so far. There is a lot to be said for continuity, but would it make sense to start the same players for all 82 games of the regular season? Sooner or later it would probably be good to let those guys sit a game or two each, and get some extra rest. If the bench players can deliver a few of those games, so much the better. But the real payoff for getting off to such a fast start isn't the chance of winning 70 games, it's in being able to strategically let a few games go in February and March. I, for one, will be surprised if that doesn't happen.

[DesignatedT]

Thanks for the info, that helps clear it up a bit. I'm guessing we end up with another 10-12 losses putting us around 64 wins. I really don't see Boston hitting that mark either. Lets just hope our good fortune continues and we can stay healthy because that is key to everything.

[awktalk]

I am very curious to see how Pop handles minutes on the RRT. Conceivably, there could be games where none of the big 3 see more than 25+. What's crazy though is if you look at the minutes the other stars of the league play. Pierce, Rondo, Kome, Pau all average 34-37 min. Garnett 31. The bench has been so efficient and effective, I wouldn't be surprised to try to milk it further, limiting the big 3 minutes, even if it means taking a loss or 4.

[jjktkk]

The positive spin on this, is for Bonner and to a lesser extent, Anderson, to reacclimate themselves into the rotation. If this happens, Pop can continue to monitor the big 3's minutes, without sacrificing wins.

[silverblk mystix]

Good take-GSH...

I would add that the lakers are also facing a pretty daunting schedule and it would take a superhuman effort to catch the spurs...and this would leave them pretty gassed for the playoffs.

I don't really see Pop trying too hard to make a bunch of changes or to start sitting people...that is almost like tempting fate...

health is everything though....

[Spur|n|Austin]

Well said, thanks. I'm also interested to see how Pop manages minutes during this nine game stretch.

[Bito Corleone]

I don't see the Spurs losing a single game until next season.

[concken]

Yea, I wouldn't get too comfortable with that notion right now. It's too early to be playing the "if-this-then-that" game. Allowing a couple of losses (especially on this RRT) is affordable, but too early to be playing with minutes and as silverblk put, "tempting fate". I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see much change during the RRT.

[FromWayDowntown]

I'll add a couple of observations to the OP.

1. The Spurs do have 10 back-to-back sets, but:


a. only one of those presents a 4 games in 5 nights schedule, and that comes next week with games at Detroit, at Toronto, at Philadelphia, and at Washington -- as 4-in-5's go, that is far from the most brutal a team could face. There is also only one 5-in-7, but it's a bit more daunting:


3/31 v. BOS
4/1 @ HOU
4/3 v. PNX
4/5 @ ATL
4/6 v. SAC

b. to go along with the absence of 4-in-5's, the remaining back-to-backs are relatively well spaced; after playing 3 back-to-backs between February 3 and February 12, the Spurs have roughly week between every back-to-back set with only 1 exception.

c. of the 2nd nights, most are against teams that are currently under .500. The 10 second nights left are: @ SAC, @ TOR, @ WAS, @ CLE, @ HOU, v. CHA, v. PRT, @ HOU, v. SAC, @ PNX. Of those teams, only Portland is currently above .500.

d. the Spurs have 8 games left against teams that are playing on the 2nd nights of back-to-backs and almost all of those will be at home, including the remaining home games against Oklahoma City (which plays the Clippers at home the night before) and Miami (which plays at Orlando the night before):


Feb. 9 -- @ TOR
Feb. 23 -- v. OKC
Feb. 27 -- v. MEM
Mar. 4 -- v. MIA
Mar. 19 -- v. CHA
Mar. 21 -- v. GST
Mar. 28 -- v. PRT
Apr. 6 -- v. SAC

2. As of today, the Spurs have 17 games remaining with teams that are under .500 and 18 against teams with winning records. That dynamic will shift as the RRT runs its course; by the All-Star Break, the Spurs will have 15 games left with teams above .500 and only 11 left with teams under .500. Of the 15 left with teams above .500, 8 are against teams that are above .600; also 8 of the 15 will be on the road (almost all post-RRT road games are against teams that are over .500).

3. All of that could be worse. The Lakers, by comparison, have 34 games remaining as of today (2/1) and 23 of those are against teams that are over .500 (13 of those are on the road). They have 15 of the 23 coming against teams that are over .600. In fact, by opponents' winning percentage, only Sacramento plays a more difficult closing schedule. They only have 6 back-to-backs left, but they have a b-t-b next week that is a 4-in-5 going from Boston to New York to Orlando before concluding in Charlotte. There's also a 5-in-7 that includes games with Dallas, Utah, and Denver.

[Spurs Brazil]

Thanks for the analysis FWD

[TampaDude]

I know it's cliche, but one game at a time.

[Budkin]

As long as we stay healthy then I'm pretty confident we'll have the best record. But if there is even one injury to the big 3 we are fucked. I cross my fingers every game that it won't happen.

[chazley]

Considering we will probably be battling Boston for the best overall record, it's highly unlikely that the last 2 games will just be 'throwaways'. We will probably end up going 66-16