GSH
02-01-2011, 02:20 AM
For those of you who habitually just scan the first few lines of a thread, the short version is that you should expect a few more losses in the latter part of the season, than in the first half - but only partly due to their schedule.
In case no one has looked that far ahead, 10 of the Spurs' remaining 35 games are B2B's - and in 7 of the 10, the second night will be on the road. So far this season, the Spurs are .500 on the second night of B2B's. Expect to lose some of those games.
We also have 3 games left against the Lakers, 2 against Miami, and 1 each against Dallas and Boston - not to mention games against some solid playoff teams like OKC, Chicago, and Atlanta. There are some definite loss opportunities there.
The last two games of the season are a B2B - both on the road, against the Lakers and Phoenix. There is a very good chance that the Spurs will have wrapped up the best record in the West by that time (see below) so those games will probably be meaningless to us, but LA and Phoenix will both probably be scrambling for playoff seeding. Those two games could very well be throw-aways.
The Spurs really have three goals now: stay healthy, solidify their rotations so they are playing their best ball in April, and lock up home court advantage in the Western Conference. (Hopefully in the entire NBA.) So while it might be nice to finish this season with 70 wins, doing so won't put them any closer to winning another Championship.
So how likely are the Spurs to finish with the best record in the Western Conference? Well if they went just 21-14 over the remaining games (a dismal .600 record the rest of the way), they would finish with a 61-21 record overall. The two nearest teams, LA and Dallas, would have to go 29-5 or 30-5, respectively, to overtake the Spurs for the best record in the West. In other words, the Spurs are in position to almost coast to the best record, and therefore home court advantage, in the Western Conference.
Realistically, if the Spurs lose 11-12 games between now and the end of the regular season, they will almost certainly lock up HCA throughout the playoffs. After their tremendous start to this season, that would have a lot of Spurs fans pulling out hair and insisting the the end is near. But it would certainly be the smartest thing to do, if it increases their chances of being 100% healthy for the playoffs.
The Spurs are the only team to have started the same five players in every game so far. There is a lot to be said for continuity, but would it make sense to start the same players for all 82 games of the regular season? Sooner or later it would probably be good to let those guys sit a game or two each, and get some extra rest. If the bench players can deliver a few of those games, so much the better. But the real payoff for getting off to such a fast start isn't the chance of winning 70 games, it's in being able to strategically let a few games go in February and March. I, for one, will be surprised if that doesn't happen.
In case no one has looked that far ahead, 10 of the Spurs' remaining 35 games are B2B's - and in 7 of the 10, the second night will be on the road. So far this season, the Spurs are .500 on the second night of B2B's. Expect to lose some of those games.
We also have 3 games left against the Lakers, 2 against Miami, and 1 each against Dallas and Boston - not to mention games against some solid playoff teams like OKC, Chicago, and Atlanta. There are some definite loss opportunities there.
The last two games of the season are a B2B - both on the road, against the Lakers and Phoenix. There is a very good chance that the Spurs will have wrapped up the best record in the West by that time (see below) so those games will probably be meaningless to us, but LA and Phoenix will both probably be scrambling for playoff seeding. Those two games could very well be throw-aways.
The Spurs really have three goals now: stay healthy, solidify their rotations so they are playing their best ball in April, and lock up home court advantage in the Western Conference. (Hopefully in the entire NBA.) So while it might be nice to finish this season with 70 wins, doing so won't put them any closer to winning another Championship.
So how likely are the Spurs to finish with the best record in the Western Conference? Well if they went just 21-14 over the remaining games (a dismal .600 record the rest of the way), they would finish with a 61-21 record overall. The two nearest teams, LA and Dallas, would have to go 29-5 or 30-5, respectively, to overtake the Spurs for the best record in the West. In other words, the Spurs are in position to almost coast to the best record, and therefore home court advantage, in the Western Conference.
Realistically, if the Spurs lose 11-12 games between now and the end of the regular season, they will almost certainly lock up HCA throughout the playoffs. After their tremendous start to this season, that would have a lot of Spurs fans pulling out hair and insisting the the end is near. But it would certainly be the smartest thing to do, if it increases their chances of being 100% healthy for the playoffs.
The Spurs are the only team to have started the same five players in every game so far. There is a lot to be said for continuity, but would it make sense to start the same players for all 82 games of the regular season? Sooner or later it would probably be good to let those guys sit a game or two each, and get some extra rest. If the bench players can deliver a few of those games, so much the better. But the real payoff for getting off to such a fast start isn't the chance of winning 70 games, it's in being able to strategically let a few games go in February and March. I, for one, will be surprised if that doesn't happen.