Reggie Miller: Duncan needs to average 20 and 13 against LA in playoffs

[TDfan2007]

Do you guys agree with this statement?

If this is truly the case, then the team is going to have to SLOWLY adjust their offense into getting Tim more touches during the last 1/4 of the season. I don't think Prime Tim could score 20 points on 12 shots, let alone the current version. He'd need to get up about 15-17 shots a game.

I'm not saying that the offense needs to slightly adjust for Tim's sake, but for our perimeter guys. They've been used to playing up and down all season, but if the team is going to slow it down and go to Tim more in the playoffs, then they need to start implementing that game plan during the closing stretch of the regular season. Otherwise, our perimeter guys could be thrown out of rhythm.

On a side note, I love the confidence the team showed in letting Tim go at Pau in crunch time.

edit: I know Reggie Miller isn't a popular guy around here, but I'd say this is an interesting statement. I want y'all's opinions.

[Ditty]

he needs those stats if the Spurs want to easily beat the Lakers.

If everyone shows up and averages how much they make in the season right now and play decent defense majority of the time, we will be fine.

[lefty]

Reggie might be right.

KFC will tighten things up and keep our perimeter players in check.

Moreover, if Duncan can get Pau or Bynum in foul trouble, they won't destroy us on the offensive end.

I expect Duncan to have bigger numbers in the playoffs anyway.

[phyzik]

I heard that and I laughed. why would Duncan have to average 20 and 13 against LA?

Tim went what.... 8 and 8 last night?

look who won.

[gospursgojas]

I heard that and I laughed. why would Duncan have to average 20 and 13 against LA?

Tim went what.... 8 and 8 last night?

look who won.

And scored 2 pts the first game. If my math is correct (im no math teacher but) thats an avg of 5ppg :lol

[Mugen]

hes going to have be able to knock down that elbow jumper and at least be able to put pressure in the post.

i don't think he has to be dominant but he has to make the lakers respect his jumper and post game for us to have a shot to win.

[MarHill]

Reggie might be right.

KFC will tighten things up and keep our perimeter players in check.

Moreover, if Duncan can get Pau or Bynum in foul trouble, they won't destroy us on the offensive end.

I expect Duncan to have bigger numbers in the playoffs anyway.

I'm more about 18 and 10 for TD against the Lakers in a series.

They need balanced scoring from the post and the back court to beat the Lakers. Make Gasol and Bynum defend TD and that will open the court for Manu and TP.

It will take all hands on deck to beat them in the playoffs.

[The_Worlds_finest]

Spi-4_6Ugdg

[Dex]

Reggie Miller usually talks out of his ass, but he's got the right idea here.

I don't think Tim necessarily has to average 20/13 for Spurs to win (as evidenced by last night, where the Spurs were off their game and the Lakers were, generally, making the right moves). But for the most part, Tim has to be able to negate Pau Gasol, be it offensively or defensively.

He is the difference maker for them. If Tim and Pau come up even, then I think the Spurs talent and depth tips the scales in their favor.

[BlairForceDejuan]

The Spurs CANNOT rely on 18 ft jumpers for the majority of games if they want to beat L.A. in 7 games.

[coyotes_geek]

I heard that and I laughed. why would Duncan have to average 20 and 13 against LA?

Tim went what.... 8 and 8 last night?

look who won.

Noted, but I have a hard time believing that's going to be enough production out of Tim for the Spurs to get by in May or June.

20 & 13 may not be the magic numbers, but Duncan needs to be better than Gasol IMO for the Spurs to win a series against the lakers.

[Cane]

Duncan always amps up his game in the playoffs. I don't see him taking as many jumpers in the postseason, he's mainly doing that to rest his legs since there really isn't a good reason for Duncan to wear himself out battling in the post for the reg season especially against LA's big bodies.

Imo Tony Parker's production is going to be the biggest factor against the Lakers. He has to abuse Fisher and Blake since thats the easiest matchup the Spurs have vs LA and it'll disrupt the defense of their bigs as well.

And for the hell of it, Bonner might be an underrated piece since his ability to space the floor also helps fight against LA's size advantage.

[Thompson]

Duncan always amps up his game in the playoffs. I don't see him taking as many jumpers in the postseason, he's mainly doing that to rest his legs since there really isn't a good reason for Duncan to wear himself out battling in the post for the reg season especially against LA's big bodies.

Imo Tony Parker's production is going to be the biggest factor against the Lakers. He has to abuse Fisher and Blake since thats the easiest matchup the Spurs have vs LA and it'll disrupt the defense of their bigs as well.

And for the hell of it, Bonner might be an underrated piece since his ability to space the floor also helps fight against LA's size advantage.

Good post. I just hope Bonner will be back by then. Have they taken any additional x-rays or MRI's to see what the deal is?

[rmt]

I'm hoping for 16/11+; TD just needs to defend and protect the paint. I think that the series will rest on 3pt shooting as Phil Jackson will pack the paint. Bonner, Neal, Hill, RJ or Manu need to hit their 3s.

[crc21209]

Reggie might be right.

KFC will tighten things up and keep our perimeter players in check.

Moreover, if Duncan can get Pau or Bynum in foul trouble, they won't destroy us on the offensive end.

I expect Duncan to have bigger numbers in the playoffs anyway.

+1. TD always picks his game up come playoff time....

[The Truth #6]

I think Reggie's statement is ridiculous.

Tim needs to play a bigger and better, obviously. But that doesn't mean we should totally re-invent the way we've been playing all season. We've been successful by not relying on Tim. Tim needs to play better defense - that's how he'll help us the most vs. LA.

To me, Tony has to play a great game in pushing the pace and getting easy points. Tim needs to play better defense and rebound, but we don't need to dump the ball into him every time.

The way to beat LA is to attack their weakness which is their slowness, not pound the ball into Tim against Gasol and Bynum, which is their strength.

So no, I don't agree with Reggie.

[DAF86]

Duncan this season vs LAL:

Game 1: 2 pts, 4 rbds - Spurs 97/Lakers 82
Game 2: 8 pts, 8 rbds - Spurs 89/Lakers 88

No, we don't need Tim to average 20 and 13.

[DAF86]

If anything Tony is the key against LAL, he has to dominate any of the Lakers PG's.

[mingus]

i don't know...if Blair is able to step up his game, you never know. Blair has and can offset some of Duncan's bad games (like game 1 in SA). he's also had a lot of duds, but Blair has stepped up big time the last month or so.

[TDMVPDPOY]

imo duncan just needs to anchor the defense and take the shots the defense gives him, that 18ft is auto this season

[tmtcsc]

I'm not sure if Tim is capable of averaging 20 and 13 anymore. That said, I don't think its a must. We've been able to win without getting much scoring from him at all. He will need to defend and rebound effectively for us to get to the Finals.

It'd also be nice if he shook whatever mental block he has when facing the Lakers. Same deal when playing against Shaq. Because Tim has no lift anymore, taller players give him problems.

[TDMVPDPOY]

I'm not sure if Tim is capable of averaging 20 and 13 anymore. That said, I don't think its a must. We've been able to win without getting much scoring from him at all. He will need to defend and rebound effectively for us to get to the Finals.

It'd also be nice if he shook whatever mental block he has when facing the Lakers. Same deal when playing against Shaq. Because Tim has no lift anymore, taller players give him problems.

if blair and mcdyness continues to hustle down low

with the perimeter players hitting their shots and attacking the rim forcing the lakers bigs into foul trouble, we can win this series in 4 if the refs call a fair game at staples...

imo james anderson and splitter needs more pt to see where there defense stack up....

[Kindergarten Cop]

imo duncan just needs to anchor the defense and take the shots the defense gives him, that 18ft is auto this season

+1

I think Duncan's presence on defense is far more important than his offense against the Lakers. As another fan posted in this thread, he only needs to "negate" Gasol.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Should it not be what the Lakers need to do to beat us?

[ElNono]

Because Reggie really knows what it takes to win it all... :rolleyes

[TDMVPDPOY]

+1

I think Duncan's presence on defense is far more important than his offense against the Lakers. As another fan posted in this thread, he only needs to "negate" Gasol.

i think blair has bynums numbers this season....

[JR3]

reggie doesn't know what it will take to win a championship... he doesn't speak from experience. His word don't mean crap to me.

[Brutalis]

Miller has always been a dumb shit. During his career he would say the most off the wall stupid ignorant things and even today as a analyst. I enjoy most of his commentary except for when he tries to claim what teams and player have to do to win this or that.

He said last year D12 has to average 30 and 15 for the Magic to get past the Celtics. Ignorant. D12 just needs his supporting cast to show up.

[Cry Havoc]

You can't blame Reggie for focusing on a single superstar. He played and got trashed in the Jordan era. It's locked into his head that a team needs one player to play well to win, because Jordan torched him nightly. :lol :lmao :rollin

[Rummpd]

If Duncan get 16 and 12 Spurs absolutely fine - what they need out him more these days is defense.

[Sotongball21]

Duncan this season vs LAL:

Game 1: 2 pts, 4 rbds - Spurs 97/Lakers 82
Game 2: 8 pts, 8 rbds - Spurs 89/Lakers 88

No, we don't need Tim to average 20 and 13.

imagine duncan not playing! wow.

[Fireball]

First of all, the Spurs should be playing like they do right now. Everybody is saying what we have to do against the Lakers and their bigs, but we did not have a playoff series against the Lakers with Pau Gasol for 3 years. In that series Manu was injured. If the Spurs are healthy, nobody can predict anything, because that playoff series never happened before.

And Tim Duncan is not able to average 20/13 against the Lakers. Its not gonna happen, but we still have the chance to win it all ...

[Warlord23]

In the recent LA game, Tim spent 3 and a half quarters playing on the elbow and letting the perimeter players drive it in. However, late in the 4th, when we were struggling to get points, Pop went to Timmy in the post twice. The first time he was able to back Gasol down and score on him. The second time he got deep position but missed an easy shot. But both plays showed one thing: when Tim really wants to, he can back Gasol down in the post and create excellent shot opportunities.

I wouldn't worry too much about Duncan. He has always stepped up in the playoffs. He will probably have more trouble vs Bynum because of the height/size factor, but Jackson always closes games with Gasol and Odom - and Tim will be able to make them pay.

[Rummpd]

First of all, the Spurs should be playing like they do right now. Everybody is saying what we have to do against the Lakers and their bigs, but we did not have a playoff series against the Lakers with Pau Gasol for 3 years. In that series Manu was injured. If the Spurs are healthy, nobody can predict anything, because that playoff series never happened before.

And Tim Duncan is not able to average 20/13 against the Lakers. Its not gonna happen, but we still have the chance to win it all ...

Duncan could average that but will not at the expense of team ball as he does not care who scores. However, it would not surprise me at all for him to the 13-15 boards a game and average anywhere between 10-16 points a game and block 3 shots a game. Duncan if things hold up will not even play the week before the playoffs and if healthy and Pop increases his minutes to 38 a game he could even surpass those totals!

Hell per my other threads we will will probably play the Mavs anyway as LAL will be fishing.

[100%duncan]

i think no, 2 points

[Bito Corleone]

I think it's true. Maybe not quite 20 & 13 but maybe something like 18 & 11 will be necessary. The Spurs won't beat the Lakers 4 out of 7 times with the style that they're playing right now. It doesn't need to completely change, but it definitely needs to be adjusted.

[Frankie23]

Of course we can't rely on our 3pointers, but if guys like Dejuan, Dice or Splitter play good interior offense and defense, there's no need for that kind of production from Timmy..
Scoring in the paint, in the PO, it's really hard, but if we keep attacking Lakers can have some fouls trouble that will open the game..Their frontcourt is about 3 great players and nothing more. If we can have at least one of them in foul trouble it will help a lot. Spurs frontcourt is deeper but smaller..

[Spursfanfromafar]

Reggie Miller might want to say that in order to justify the logic that the Spurs' bigs have to match the Lakers' bigs to win.

But apparently that is not the only way to win. If the Spurs' bigs can counter and negate the Laker bigs and then unleash Kobe-the-me-version and then use the laxity in the Lakers' backcourt - they stand a great chance to win. Parker will always nearly get his; so bad are Blake and Fish while Manu with his master of all trades persona can do well even if bothered by Artest. The key is Jefferson and the bench...and how they manage to tackle Lamar Odom, who for me is the biggest threat for the Spurs.

[quentin_compson]

I don't think Tim would have to average 20 PPG, but something around 12 RPG might actually be needed - depends on how much help he'll get at the boards by our other bigs, of course.

[ALVAREZ6]

Reggie Miller is a retard. Those types of declarations are so worthless. Reggie's point is that the Spurs need to score in the post and rebound the ball, indirectly. Why's it matter who the fuck does it? We just need to rebound well. Fuck off Reggie you retard.

[jjktkk]

Duncan is such a smart player, he knows when to take over games, and when to set up others, or get teammates going offensively. IMO, any playoff series this season, our guard play is the key, since it is the Spurs strength, with Duncan picking his spots to take over.

[Galileo]

Duncan will add 5 points per game to his average in the playoffs.

[024]

im beginning to think the spurs won't even meet the lakers in the playoffs. if the mavs continue to play at this pace, they can knock out the lakers since they match up with them much better. but miller does have one thing correct. duncan needs to be a force again in the paint for the spurs to get anywhere in the playoffs.

[UnWantedTheory]

I don't think TD needs to average that for the Spurs to be successful against the Lakers. But I also expect to see Duncan averaging more around 17/11 during the PO's.

[TDMVPDPOY]

oi reggie, 4>0

[m33p0]

Duncan can easily get those numbers in the playoffs... even against LA.

[SpurAddict561]

This is the first season like ever that our whole team top to bottom can contribute.

No Udokas or Vaughns, we got Quinns and Neals baby

Quinn is probably the weakest player on our team and he has shown flashes of goodness a few times.

I remember knowing we were gonna blow a lead when Vaughn or Udoka came in, I don't get that feeling when the supporting cast now comes on.

Hell sometimes they get us out of holes this year.

Amazing!

[duncan228]

San Antonio Spurs' NBA Championship Hopes Still Rest On Tim Duncan's Shoulders (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/2/8/1981496/san-antonio-spurs-nba-championship-tim-duncan)
By Mike Prada - Editor
SB Nation

The San Antonio Spurs have the NBA's best record despite a clear decline in Tim Duncan's production. Once the playoffs roll around, though, Duncan will need to pick it up if the Spurs are to win the NBA title.

During the Spurs' recent one-point win over the Los Angeles Lakers, the question of whether the Spurs can beat the Lakers in a seven-game series in the NBA playoffs was inevitably raised. TNT commentator Reggie Miller responded in typically ridiculous fashion, saying that the Spurs will only win if Tim Duncan averages "20 points and 13 or 14 rebounds," even though Duncan has done that just once in the playoffs since 2003 (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html). The Spurs can beat anyone even if Duncan isn't at that level.

But as the Spurs continue to race away from the rest of the league (they're 42-8 as of this writing), I can't help but think that Duncan has more to prove than anyone on the entire team. His legacy is secure, but he also hasn't won a title since 2007 and looked his age, especially on defense, in last year's four-game playoff loss to the Phoenix Suns. This year, he's played a more limited role than ever before, as the Spurs have remodeled themselves into a small-ball juggernaut that spreads the floor and shoots tons of threes. The Spurs have received the best of both worlds; better regular-season success, combined with more rest for their future Hall of Famer. Eventually, though, I think they'll need their Hall of Famer to shoulder a bigger load, especially once the playoffs roll around.

It's not like Duncan has declined significantly; he just isn't playing or shooting as much. His PER is his lowest of his career, as is his true shooting percentage and usage rate, but he's still putting up a 21.3 PER with intelligent, if not elite defense, at the center position. Almost every team in the league would accept that kind of production from their center. He just is doing it in only 29 minutes a game.

While Duncan has taken a backseat, the Spurs have thrived. After two more wins, including a buzzer-beating one Lakers on Thursday, they lead the West by seven games over the Dallas Mavericks. They've risen from one of the slower teams in the league (http://www.hoopdata.com/teamadvancedstats.aspx?yr=2010&type=pg) to one in the middle of the pack (http://hoopdata.com/teamadvancedstats.aspx), mostly because teams shoot really quickly (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/1/24/1952725/nba-pace-speed-spurs-suns-knicks) against their defense. Richard Jefferson has bounced back from an awful year to be a huge asset, Tony Parker is back to being himself after being slowed by injury last season and Manu Ginobili is tremendous and healthy. Scrap heap acquisition Gary Neal has teamed with George Hill to stabilize the bench unit, and Matt Bonner has been a great stretch power forward as well. It seems odd to argue that the Spurs will need Duncan to pick it up when they've been so dominant with him playing like this.

But the Spurs' amazing success seems a bit flimsy to me on some level. For one thing, they've received an incredible run of health. None of their starters has missed a game all season, and their top nine players in minutes per game have missed just 26 games all year (16 for Bonner, six for Hill, four for Antonio McDyess). That's far less than almost every other major contender:


Boston: 80 (63 among starters)
Miami: 95 (18 among starters)
LA Lakers: 41 (25 among starters)
Dallas: 45 (37 among starters)
Chicago: 66 (45 among starters)

Some of those teams have players that won't be back regardless (Udonis Haslem, Caron Butler), but for the most part, those teams will likely be at full strength in the playoffs, where they will be much more difficult to take out.

Keep Reading... (http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/2/8/1981496/san-antonio-spurs-nba-championship-tim-duncan)

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/2/8/1981496/san-antonio-spurs-nba-championship-tim-duncan

[DMC]

Reggie has no idea how many points Duncan will have to average. It's a shot in the dark.