The over-rating of one Carmelo Anthony

[Rummpd]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/league/west

" . . . Whatever the reason, we can't place him in the same orbit with the league's other elite player candidates unless he's getting at least half as many free throw attempts as field goal attempts. Otherwise, his propensity for turnovers (59th among power forwards in Pure Point Rating) and less-than-stellar defense keep him out of the discussion." Hollinger http://espn.go.com/nba/player/hollinger/_/id/1975/carmelo-anthony


"This theory comes from SNY.TV's Michael Salfino. In a post headlined "LeBron's Gone, but Knicks Must Move On," he makes note of "economist Dave Berri's wins produced formula" -- a reference to Stumbling on Wins, a book by David J. Berri and Martin B. Schmidt that attempts to determine which statistics most directly translate to victories in the four major U.S. pro sports.

By this measure, Anthony doesn't fare especially well. Salfino again:

The long-term plan [for the Knicks] seems to be to wait to sign either Carmelo Anthony and/or Chris Paul. Berri's system has Paul as the 21st best player last year overall (No. 4 point guard). But it has Anthony as 20th just among small forwards overall and 31st in that group if you look at production per 48 minutes. This system values rebounding and points per shot and not straight scoring, which it says is way overvalued.
Carmelo Anthony only the twentieth best small forward in the NBA? Are you kidding? But no: The Wins Produced Test Suite, a website that applies the Berri/Schmidt formula to a slew of NBA players, shows Melo waaaay down the list. He's behind something like eighty players in terms of win-generating productivity, including fellow Nuggets Chauncey Billups, Kenyon Martin, Chris "Birdman" Andersen and even Nenê".


http://blogs.westword.com/latestword/2010/07/carmelo_anthony_overrated_the_wins-produced_system_says_yes.php#


"He's a difficult matchup for defenses but his other issues keep cropping up. Anthony was once considered a franchise player and cornerstone for a generation, but is now being viewed as a player better suited a a No. 2 option, or even a No. 3, on a team that is serious about winning a championship." http://bleacherreport.com/articles/475047-carmelo-anthony-learns-the-nba-thinks-he-is-over-rated-and-it-hurts


By many measures including PER and wins produced: Anthony SHOULD NOT RIGHTFULLY EVEN BE CONSIDERED A SUPERSTAR (including 0 finals appearances so far in his career) AND IS AT BEST a BORDERLINE ALL STAR (as just one example his PER is below Aldridge or Duncan who either were disingenoulsy criticized as selections or got jabbed IMO) and perhaps is not even worthy of a max contract and certainly not all the ongoing drama and trade talk - unless the Knicks get him for little or nothing - both they, the Nets and the Lakers have all made the right choice by holding back in "shooting for the moon" in hopes of winning with Carmello if they have to give up substantial pieces in return.

[#41 Shoot Em Up]

Spell his name right moron

[redzero]

But he's the best/most versatile scorer in the league.

[monosylab1k]

Kevin Martin is 9th in PER.

/thread

[lefty]

He is a pure scorer, and a good one

[monosylab1k]

tbh redzero's sig somehow led me to discovering the most hilarious website ever, rapgenius.com

http://rapgenius.com/lyrics/Kanye-west/Dark-fantasy

well not most hilarious ever, but pretty damn funny

[Rummpd]

Anthony is actually over-rated as a shooter as well - both his his FG% (44.5%) and his TS% (53.9%) over his career have also been fairly mediocre among top tier forwards in light he is a relatively poor defender and rebounder.

As one example Lamar Odom has a career FG% > that of Anthony 45.8% and just about the same TS% (52.5% but much higher over the last 5-6 years), is certainly more able to spread the floor & defends and rebounds better. Moreover, this year David West also has comparable numbers (as he has had for several years). Unlike Anthony neither were selected for the all star game but have arguebly contributed as much if not more to winning for their teams. http://espn.go.com/nba/player/hollinger/_/id/2177/david-west

Anthony is a fine (relatively) but over-ranked scorer (as Hollinger points out most of his career he has actually not been good at drawing fouls and loses the ball more than almost all top tier forwards) but to call him anything but A MEDIA HYPED superstar or a difference maker at this point of his career is actually totally unfounded.

[Neo.]

Carmello in terms of ability and talent, is as good of a scoring machine as the NBA has ever seen. His BBIQ and intangibles are another thing though, which hold him back from being a truly elite player in the class of guys like Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Dirk, and Durant.

[lefty]

Carmello in terms of ability and talent, is as good of a scoring machine as the NBA has ever seen. His BBIQ and intangibles are another thing though, which hold him back from being a truly elite player in the class of guys like Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Dirk, and Durant.
I agree
He has trouble when defenses are collapsing on him

[Rummpd]

Lots of overly acclaimed players have talent but few are true superstars or winners.

[Greg Oden]

But he's the best/most versatile scorer in the league.

I don't know if you're being serious, but this statement is true and ensures he is a top flight player in the league.

[redzero]

I don't know if you're being serious, but this statement is true and ensures he is a top flight player in the league.

I'm not being serious.

[Greg Oden]

I'm not being serious.

Well you made a pretty correct statement whilst joking around.

[redzero]

Well you made a pretty correct statement whilst joking around.

Durant, Wade, and LeBron are better scorers than Carmelo.

[lefty]

Durant, Wade, and LeBron are better scorers than Carmelo.
Lebron is a great scorer, but he needs to "ballhog" that ball in order to score, lots of one-on-ones, usually from the same spot
Melo is a more versatile scorer IMO

[redzero]

Lebron is a great scorer, but he needs to "ballhog" that ball in order to score, lots of one-on-ones, usually from the same spot
Melo is a more versatile scorer IMO

And Carmelo doesn't?

I guess I'll use this again:

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/01/13/why-is-lebron-james-a-more-productive-player-than-carmelo-anthony/


When we look at free throw attempts, points scored, rebounds, turnovers, net possessions, and blocked shots, neither player is consistently better when we consider performance this year, last year, and across each player’s respective careers. Given that LeBron is consistently more productive, we must look beyond these factors for an explanation.

And what do we have left? Shooting efficiency from the field, steals, and assists. The difference with respect to steals is actually quite small. So the real difference between LeBron and Carmelo is that

LeBron is much more likely to hit the shots from the field he takes.
As a consequence, LeBron requires fewer shots to score essentially the same number of points Carmelo scores per 48 minutes.
And perhaps because LeBron is taking fewer shots, he can spend more time looking for his teammates.
So it is essentially differences in shooting efficiency (and assists) that have resulted in LeBron producing about five times the wins produced by Melo.

[Greg Oden]

Durant, Wade, and LeBron are better scorers than Carmelo.

:lol Durant. Has he ever bothered to post up at any time in his career yet?

[lefty]

And Carmelo doesn't?

I guess I'll use this again:

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/01/13/why-is-lebron-james-a-more-productive-player-than-carmelo-anthony/
Actually, by ballhogging I meant he needs to hold onto the ball in order to score (I'm not saying he is a ballhog in the sense that he wants to take 200000 shots a la Kobe Bryant)
But yeah, based on the link you posted, it seems that Lebron is more efficient

[redzero]

Hey, Durant doesn't need to post up if he keeps shooting the way he is shooting. His 09-10 season was better than any season Carmelo has ever had.

[LnGrrrR]

Actually, by ballhogging I meant he needs to hold onto the ball in order to score (I'm not saying he is a ballhog in the sense that he wants to take 200000 shots a la Kobe Bryant)
But yeah, based on the link you posted, it seems that Lebron is more efficient

tbh lefty, it's very hard to score without the ball :D :lol

[lefty]

tbh lefty, it's very hard to score without the ball :D :lol
Ok, what I mean is that he needs to dribble a lot from the top of the key, either on ISO plays or high pick and rolls

While Melo takes more shots, he scores in many different ways

[lefty]

Fuck both of them anyway

[JamStone]

Carmelo is one of the most versatile scorers in the league. LeBron, Wade, Durant might be more explosive scorers or maybe more efficient scorers than Melo. That's certainly arguable. But Melo can score in every way possible, in the halfcourt or in transition, on post-ups, face-ups, or slashing, in the pick-and-roll as a finisher, midrange game, long ball, off the dribble or spotting up for jumpers, getting to the free throw line, and from offensive rebounding. Those other three might be better at a couple of those areas, but they are average or below average in at least one of those areas where Melo is above average in all those areas.

I think what separates Melo as a scorer from almost all other high scoring perimeter players are two of those elements: he has a very good back to the basket post game and he's an above average offensive rebounder. The offensive rebounding for a perimeter player is pretty impressive. The only other guy I can think of who is a high scoring wing player and also an above average offensive rebounder is Caron Butler. There might be others. Maybe a young Vince Carter or a young T-Mac. Even very versatile scorers like Kobe and Paul Pierce don't crash the offensive glass like that.

I'm trying to think of other current players who have a low post game and offensive rebounding game like a power forward but are also potent wing scorers. Melo is a very rare scorer in this league. Maybe not the best scorer in the league, certainly one of the best. But he's probably the most versatile scorer.

[lefty]

Carmelo is one of the most versatile scorers in the league. LeBron, Wade, Durant might be more explosive scorers or maybe more efficient scorers than Melo. That's certainly arguable. But Melo can score in every way possible, in the halfcourt or in transition, on post-ups, face-ups, or slashing, in the pick-and-roll as a finisher, midrange game, long ball, off the dribble or spotting up for jumpers, getting to the free throw line, and from offensive rebounding. Those other three might be better at a couple of those areas, but they are average or below average in at least one of those areas where Melo is above average in all those areas.
I guess I should have put it that way :lol

But yeah, that`s basically what I meant

[Phillip]

I'd say that Melo is the most skilled scorer in the NBA, with Kobe and Dirk trailing slightly. But being skilled, and being the best, aren't neccesarily the same thing. I'd say that Bron and Durant are better scorers than Melo, and are better scorers than Kobe and Dirk as well, but neither of them are as skilled at scoring as Melo, Kobe and Dirk, because you can gameplan to slow down Durant or Lebron from scoring, and do so with a minimal amount of doubles (by getting physical with Durant, or by backing up and giving Lebron the long jumpers, although his jumper is immensely better this year, so he might have gotten past that stage). But there really isn't a gameplan outside of nonstop doubles and triples to stop Melo, Kobe, and Dirk, because of their extreme versatility. Pretty much the only thing that stops those three guys from scoring are themselves.

What holds Melo back, as I said earlier, is that he doesn't have the natural IQ of the most elite players... he tends to take a lot more bad shots and not let an offense flow naturally.

[Greg Oden]

Hey, Durant doesn't need to post up if he keeps shooting the way he is shooting. His 09-10 season was better than any season Carmelo has ever had.

huh? You did include versatile in your original post.

[redzero]

huh? You did include versatile in your original post.

And "best." But I guess it's my mistake for making them seem like they were interchangeable.

[Greg Oden]

Don't go back on it now. You said versatile and then said Durant doesn't need to post up.

And how many of those things in Jamstone's post does Durant do better than Melo?

[Greg Oden]

check my doubles

[redzero]

I said that Durant was a better scorer than Carmelo.


Durant, Wade, and LeBron are better scorers than Carmelo.

And I also admitted that I incorrectly used best and most versatile interchangeably.


And "best." But I guess it's my mistake for making them seem like they were interchangeable.

[jjktkk]

:lol Durant. Has he ever bothered to post up at any time in his career yet?

Durant will probably never have the bulk to have a effective post game, but he can beat his man off the dribble and finish. Combine that with his jumper, and Durant is easily of the best scorers in the league.

[Greg Oden]

Durant will probably never have the bulk to have a effective post game, but he can beat his man off the dribble and finish. Combine that with his jumper, and Durant is easily of the best scorers in the league.

I agree.

[Greg Oden]

I said that Durant was a better scorer than Carmelo.



And I also admitted that I incorrectly used best and most versatile interchangeably.

fair enough scro.

[JamStone]

I don't know, maybe a couple. Better long range jumper, gets to the line a little more. The other ways to score, maybe Durant is comparable to Melo in a few more areas. But obviously he doesn't really score in the post, doesn't crash the offensive glass.

[jjktkk]

Say Melo gets traded to Knicks to team up with Stoudamire. Thats two great scorers if the knicks get Melo, but does that really make the Knicks a contender? Neither one defends, but now you would have 2 guys demanding the ball.

[Greg Oden]

They both get to the line about the same. However credit to Durant for shooting 88%. Their 3PT % is virtually the same too.

[JamStone]

this season they're shooting at about the same clip from three point range. i think most people would agree that Durant is the better long distance shooter. i do think what a few people have said in this thread holds true about Carmelo, that he's not a very smart scorer in terms of shot selection. he'll go through stretches where he'll take bad shots just to get his shots up. and i think he gets upset or frustrated if he doesn't touch the ball enough, which also leads to him having poor shot selection when he does get the ball again.

[Axe Murderer]

I think a lot of times Melo will take bail out shots, but when he's focused he is the most versatile scorer in the NBA

[Kyle Orton]

I think a lot of times Melo will take bail out shots, but when he's focused he is the most versatile scorer in the NBA

UM, with the goods, per usual, par the course, imo, tbh, fwiw, last thing I ever say to you on this forum, America eatin' lunch, yeah i got calf tats, it was a mistake to rush, etc.

When he's not being a chucker Melo is the best scorer in the NBA (but he holds himself back a lot by rushing shots). He has a great post game against guys who can't match up to his strength and a great face up game for guys who can't match his speed. He's also similar to Kobe where all the circus jumpers he takes off the dribble make people not realize how good his spot up J is off the catch. He's just as dangerous off ball as he is with the ball.

[Kyle Orton]

I see Melo following a similar career path to Paul Pierce, he needs to get older before he realizes that taking less shots (but caring more about the shots you take) and focusing on being your team's defensive stopper is the best way he can help his team win.