Which, if any, of these are HOFs ?

[FkLA]

Chris Webber
Rasheed Wallace
Chauncey Billups
Marc Jackson
Dikembe Mutombo
Alonzo Mourning
Robert Horry
Tracy McGrady
Grant Hill
Vince Carter

[TimmehC]

Zo and Deke for sure.

[TampaDude]

Chris Webber - NO
Rasheed Wallace - YES
Chauncey Billups - YES
Marc Jackson - NO
Dikembe Mutombo - YES
Alonzo Mourning - YES
Robert Horry - YES
Tracy McGrady - NO
Grant Hill - NO
Vince Carter - NO

[DMC]

Chris Webber -No
Rasheed Wallace -No
Chauncey Billups -Maybe
Marc Jackson -No (he would be already)
Dikembe Mutombo -Maybe
Alonzo Mourning -Probably
Robert Horry -should be just because
Tracy McGrady -No
Grant Hill - No
Vince Carter - No

[Muser]

Vince should get in just for that dunk in the olympics or w/e tournament it was.

Damn nasty.

[Phillip]

Horry - fuck no

[Phillip]

Billups, Mutumbo, and Mourning are all definitely deserving

[Phillip]

truth is, its probably going to be pretty tough for most of these people to get in, except maybe Zo (because of his health battles).

[bostonguy]

Sheed and Billups Hall of Famers?? :lmao:lmao:lmao


If Tmac/Hill could have stayed healthy....yes.

Horry is a role player. He will be remembered as one of the clutchest playoff performers, but he isn't a HOF.

Zo and Deke? Yes. Sucks Zo had those health issues.

Carter? I am iffy on that one.

[DMC]

Horry - fuck no

That's because he never hit game winning shots for Dallas.

[IronMexican]

No way in fucking hell should Horry get in. It would belittle the HoF. And I like him.

[Muser]

What about Ben Wallace? 4 DPOY is hard to argue against.

[DMC]

If Dominique could make it, Horry should be a lock.

[Muser]

If Dominique could make it, Horry should be a lock.

Wow..Did you just compare Dominique Wilkins to Robert Horry?


Holy fuck.

[DMC]

There are a ton of great players who never made the HOF. It's not a "really good player" organization. It's supposed to be the best of the best. Short term memory always puts new players over older ones. There are plenty of old guys who played good ball but didn't make it into the HOF.

[bostonguy]

What about Ben Wallace? 4 DPOY is hard to argue against.

That is the ONLY Piston from that core who should be considered for the HOF.

[Muser]

Seriously..Is that a fucking joke?

[FkLA]

goes to show how much rings matter, when it comes to fringe hof's...

imo aside from deke and zo webber is the best player out of all these when you factor in longevity...he was putting up 20-10 and was a top MVP candidate in his sactown days, one of the top 5 passing big man of all-time too. yet noone has picked him bc of his inability to win a ring. meanwhile guys like horry, or chauncey and sheed have gotten a couple of yes's.

[TampaDude]

goes to show how much rings matter, when it comes to fringe hof's...

imo aside from deke and zo webber is the best player out of all these when you factor in longevity...he was putting up 20-10 and was a top MVP candidate in his sactown days, one of the top 5 passing big man of all-time too. yet noone has picked him bc of his inability to win a ring. meanwhile guys like horry, or chauncey and sheed have gotten a couple of yes's.

Yeah...rings do seem to matter. :toast

[FkLA]

imho

Chris Webber-MAYBE...2nd/3rd ballot.
Rasheed Wallace-NO
Chauncey Billups-NO
Marc Jackson-NO
Dikembe Mutombo-LOCK
Alonzo Mourning-LOCK
Robert Horry-NO
Tracy McGrady-NO
Grant Hill-NO
Vince Carter-NO

[Blake]

Chris Webber
Rasheed Wallace
Chauncey Billups
Marc Jackson
Dikembe Mutombo
Alonzo Mourning
Robert Horry
Tracy McGrady
Grant Hill
Vince Carter

none of these guys were ever MVPs.

the guys on that list that won rings all have pretty average/mediocre stats.

If you want to throw in international play, I guess getting a gold medal might help Grant Hill.

I don't think Billups deserves to get in, but it's real hard to argue against him getting in when Dennis Johnson is in.

Basketball Refernce has Vince at an 86% of getting in but I think their ratings are flawed on that one.


I'd guess Mutumbo and Billups.

[LnGrrrR]

Chris Webber - No
Rasheed Wallace - No
Chauncey Billups - No
Marc Jackson - No
Dikembe Mutombo - Yes
Alonzo Mourning - Maybe
Robert Horry - No
Tracy McGrady - No
Grant Hill - No
Vince Carter - No

I might be swayed by a good Sheed or Billups argument. I don't think TMac and Vince have enough postseason success.

[LnGrrrR]

I don't think Billups deserves to get in, but it's real hard to argue against him getting in when Dennis Johnson is in.


Hm...



DJ Stats

PPG: 14.1
RPG: 3.9
APG: 5.0
3 Championships (Sea 79/80, Bos 83/84, 85/86)
2x All-NBA Team (2nd team 1x, 1st team 1x)
9x All-Defensive Team (1st team 6x, 2nd team 3x)
5x All-Star
1x NBA Finals MVP (Sea 79/80)




Billups Stats

PPG: 15.5
RPG: 2.9
APG: 5.6
1 Championship (Det 2004)
3x All-NBA Team (2nd team 1x, 3rd team 2x)
2x All-Defensive Team (2nd team 2x)
5x All-Star
1x NBA Finals MVP (Det 03/04)


I think DJ is at least as qualifed to be in the HoF as Billups, if not moreso.

[HarlemHeat37]

No to all, except for Deke and Zo..Mutombo should be a lock IMO, but I'm not sure if he will actualy get in..his effort in the community will help him get in, he's the anti-Rodman, from an image standpoint..

Zo is borderline, but his health battle will help IMO, as Stretch said..

Billups is overrated as fuck IMO..I wouldn't be surprised if he actually gets in, but I hope he doesn't..

Ben Wallace deserves it IMO, he has become underrated..

[Muser]

Ben Wallace deserves it IMO, he has become underrated..

Agreed, guy was such a beast on defense.

[JoeTait75]

Chris Webber YES
Rasheed Wallace NO
Chauncey Billups NO
Marc Jackson NO
Dikembe Mutombo YES
Alonzo Mourning YES
Robert Horry NO
Tracy McGrady NO
Grant Hill YES
Vince Carter NO

[baseline bum]

If Dominique could make it, Horry should be a lock.

That's like saying if Durant could get in, so should Fisher.

[Killakobe81]

Sheed and Billups Hall of Famers?? :lmao:lmao:lmao


If Tmac/Hill could have stayed healthy....yes.

Horry is a role player. He will be remembered as one of the clutchest playoff performers, but he isn't a HOF.

Zo and Deke? Yes. Sucks Zo had those health issues.

Carter? I am iffy on that one.

Bostonguy is right again ...are some of you freaking delirious? Sheed in the HOF? Chauncey? hell no.

Deke yes. Zo too though his case would of been stronger without the kidney issue. Hill and Tmac the same, but the case is weaker.

Vince? Well he will have numbers but my guess like in the NFL when the passing game screwed up the numbers or baseball with 'roids... my guess is that scorers that did little else will be devalued ...

[Killakobe81]

Webber maybe ... Hill I dont see how but college does count so I guess maybe yes ..

But TMac no college ...and Chauncey went to a name school and his international role was minimal so i say no.

[baseline bum]

Mutombo and Mourning would be my picks. No chance on Hill; I don't care how good he could have been. Otherwise you have to open the flood gates for Penny Hardaway, TMac, Michael Ray Richardson, Baron Davis, etc.

[Killakobe81]

Mutombo and Mourning would be my picks. No chance on Hill; I don't care how good he could have been. Otherwise you have to open the flood gates for Penny Hardaway, TMac, Michael Ray Richardson, Baron Davis, etc.

but it's not NBA its bball HOF ...college counts so Hill may sneak in ...

[ChuckD]

I like Horry better than any other vet FA SA ever signed, but in spite of the fact that he's the most clutch post-season muthafucka in the history of the NBA, the fact remains that's he's a 7ppg player, and the HOF doesn't admit those.

[baseline bum]

but it's not NBA its bball HOF ...college counts so Hill may sneak in ...

Yeah, I didn't consider his Duke career. That would be the only thing that could sway me though.

[LnGrrrR]

Vince? Well he will have numbers but my guess like in the NFL when the passing game screwed up the numbers or baseball with 'roids... my guess is that scorers that did little else will be devalued ...

Exactly my thought. There's too many guys who can do what Vince/Tmac do, that did it better, and got rings too.

[HarlemHeat37]

If the Kings officially won the 2002 NBA title, would Webber be in the HOF?..

[Bito Corleone]

Zo and Deke for sure.
This.

Possibly Chauncey just b/c of the Finals MVP.

[resistanze]

Deke and Zo should go in. Hill and Webber for me are on the fence. Vince Carter should be considered down the road, but probably is less deserving than say, Bernard King.

[FkLA]

If the Kings officially won the 2002 NBA title, would Webber be in the HOF?..

Without a doubt. I was actually expecting him to get a couple more yes's from posters...he's being extremely underrated imo. He might still get in despite not having that ring.

[Blake]

Hm...

I think DJ is at least as qualifed to be in the HoF as Billups, if not moreso.

I don't think DJ should have gotten in, but I agree.

what I was saying was that since DJ is in and the numbers are almost identical (apart from the two extra rings with Bird and co), I can't see how they justify keeping Billups out.

I also think what might help Billups is that he should have some of the same east coast bias that DJ got.

[Killakobe81]

CWEB was great but his peak was short ...
If he gets in the Fab 5 stuff would of been what put him over the top TBH ...

Co-sign Bernard King he needs to be in before some of these clowns ...

Saddest part was when he tore his knee the first time he was giving nique and MJ (IIRC) a serious run for the scoring title ...

[ALVAREZ6]

Chris Webber
Rasheed Wallace
Chauncey Billups
Marc Jackson
Dikembe Mutombo
Alonzo Mourning
Robert Horry
Tracy McGrady
Grant Hill
Vince Carter

Probably T-Mac, Carter, Mutombo, Horry (??? really no idea).. nvm.
Fuck actually I don't know at all, I think you can make cases for and against most of them, and you would have valid points.

Carter and T-Mac are/were too damn talented to not make it.

[ALVAREZ6]

That's like saying if Durant could get in, so should Fisher.

lol so true

If Fisher ever makes it I will instantly kill myself.


Probably not actually, but you get the point.

[LnGrrrR]

I don't think DJ should have gotten in, but I agree.

what I was saying was that since DJ is in and the numbers are almost identical (apart from the two extra rings with Bird and co), I can't see how they justify keeping Billups out.

I also think what might help Billups is that he should have some of the same east coast bias that DJ got.

I don't think you can just dismiss two extra championships. For better or worse, those play in to the argument.

As well, he did make 7 more All-Defensive teams, six times on the first team. (Of which Billups was never chosen.)

Finally, I think that Boston has a lot more East Coast Bias Pull than Detroit has or will ever have. When I think East Coast bias, I think NY/Boston... not Detroit.

[LnGrrrR]

Without a doubt. I was actually expecting him to get a couple more yes's from posters...he's being extremely underrated imo. He might still get in despite not having that ring.

I really liked Chris Webber, and he was dominant during the early 2000's. But Lakers three-peat really killed his chances.

If he got a ring, I'd probably give him a 50/50 shot.

[Killakobe81]

I don't think you can just dismiss two extra championships. For better or worse, those play in to the argument.

As well, he did make 7 more All-Defensive teams, six times on the first team. (Of which Billups was never chosen.)

Finally, I think that Boston has a lot more East Coast Bias Pull than Detroit has or will ever have. When I think East Coast bias, I think NY/Boston... not Detroit.

Couldn't agree more. You can dismiss rings in currently who is better debate ...but when you discuss legacy and HOF credentials rings are a factor.

[ALVAREZ6]

Grant Hill, Dikembe, and Alonzo are the most obvious and strongest chances.

[JamStone]

Chris Webber has a better chance than some of you think. I think he's borderline but he's close.

I don't think either Zo or Dikembe are locks, both also borderline.

Grant Hill is a very unique case. I tend to think he does get in on the strength of his college career.

The rest, no.

[LkrFan]

Mount Mutombo. That's it and that is all.

[LkrFan]

If the Kings officially won the 2002 NBA title, would Webber be in the HOF?..

Comments like this crack me up everytime. The Queens choked, end of story. :lmao

[cobbler]

Vince! Top 10 all time and shoe in for the HOF tbh.

:rolleyes

[mardigan]

Chris Webber has a better chance than some of you think. I think he's borderline but he's close.



Totally. 21 and 10 over his 16 years or whatever it was is pretty damn impressive, even without the ring.

[Blake]

I don't think you can just dismiss two extra championships. For better or worse, those play in to the argument.

If DJ stays in Seattle, there's no way he gets another ring.

since DJ was the 3rd or 4th best player on those teams, I personally can dismiss them. No question though that playing in Boston and getting the 2 extra rings helped get him in.

Billups was basically one half away from having a 2nd ring and probably a 2nd Finals MVP trophy.


As well, he did make 7 more All-Defensive teams, six times on the first team. (Of which Billups was never chosen.)

that's true.


Finally, I think that Boston has a lot more East Coast Bias Pull than Detroit has or will ever have. When I think East Coast bias, I think NY/Boston... not Detroit.

I think Detroit and Boston/NY play each other enough times during the course of a season and throughout playoff games for voters to throw their bias out there.

I'm not saying Billups is better than DJ was.

I am saying I can see him getting in because DJ is in.

[JamStone]

Decided to go to basketball reference HOF probability to see what they thought. It obviously isn't 100% accurate but it's an interesting gauge because it is based on statistical information and it does seem somewhat accurate.

HOF Probability list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

The formula they use: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Basically, if you're ranked in the top 75 or so on the list, you're essentially a lock for the HOF unless you're Jo Jo White. Once you get past around 75, it's a guessing game. Once you get passed rank #90, you're unlikely to get in. The lowest ranked HOFer on this list of 250 players is Calvin Murphy at 205. There are only 4 HOFers ranked lower than 150.


Chris Webber - ranked 80th highest all time with a .7295 HOF probability. The only player above him who is eligible and not in the HOF is Jo Jo White. Ahead of guys like Mourning and Dikembe who some think are locks.

Rasheed Wallace - ranked 209th with a .0361 HOF probability. Won't and shouldn't get in.

Chauncey Billups - ranked 132nd with a .2144 HOF probability. Probably only consideration is the Finals MVP but likely won't make it.

Marc Jackson - unless I missed him, he's not in the top 250 players most likely to get in based on the formula.

Dikembe Mutombo - ranked 214th with a .0328 HOF probability. I could see him getting in more as a "contributor" than a "player" for his humanitarian acts as an NBA ambassador. I don't think he qualifies as a player.

Alonzo Mourning - ranked 106th with a .4723 HOF probability. I think 2006 helped him even though he was a back-up center and role player. Otherwise, I don't think he'd have a chance.

Robert Horry - not in the top 250 based on this formula.

Tracy McGrady - ranked 85th with a .6875 HOF probability. The modern perception of him by fans is much different from his actual statistical perception for the HOF. If he gets in, there will be plenty of people who will disagree with it, especially because of the playoff futility of the teams he's played for. But there's a far greater chance for him to get in than everyone else on the list other than his cousin. But I'm one of those who don't think he should get in either.

Grant Hill - ranked 111th with a .4405 HOF probability. Would rank higher if his college career was included.

Vince Carter - ranked 65th with .8628 HOF probability. A lot of what I said about T-Mac goes for Vince. But I think Vince could make it the same way Dominique did, over time with people appreciating his numbers and focusing less on what happened with his departure in Toronto and his inability to help teams get better later in his career. I initially said he wouldn't get in, but looking how highly he ranks statistically all time, I'm reconsidering that opinion.

Here are a couple other interesting names on the list and where they rank based on the formula they used.

Manu Ginobili - ranked 154th with a .1314 HOF probability. Doesn't take into consideration his international career.

Reggie Miller - ranked 190th with a .0553 HOF probability. Since there's a thread about him, thought I'd include him.

[LnGrrrR]

If DJ stays in Seattle, there's no way he gets another ring.

Probably. But theoreticals don't have a big place in HoF discussions. It's about what a person did or didn't do.


since DJ was the 3rd or 4th best player on those teams, I personally can dismiss them. No question though that playing in Boston and getting the 2 extra rings helped get him in.

True, and if Billups played as the 4th best person on two teams, he'd get a similar boost.


Billups was basically one half away from having a 2nd ring and probably a 2nd Finals MVP trophy.

And so was Pierce. Does that mean we should pretend like he got it?


I think Detroit and Boston/NY play each other enough times during the course of a season and throughout playoff games for voters to throw their bias out there.

Yes, but East Coast bias is more about media saturation. There's a ton of sports media in the East Coast (NY/BOS) moreso than Detroit/midwest. (Detroit isn't even the biggest media in that area, that would go to Chitown.)


I'm not saying Billups is better than DJ was.

I am saying I can see him getting in because DJ is in.

Fair enough. But the Hall of Fame isn't just "Hall of Best Statistical Players". Rings, situations, teams etc etc all should be taken into account. Fairly or unfairly, DJ gets a boost from being on those iconic Boston teams.

[JamStone]

On basketball reference's HOF probability, Dennis Johnson is ranked 102nd with a .5251 HOF probability. Above I already posted where Chauncey ranks.

[LnGrrrR]

Decided to go to basketball reference HOF probability to see what they thought. It obviously isn't 100% accurate but it's an interesting gauge because it is based on statistical information and it does seem somewhat accurate.

HOF Probability list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

The formula they use: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Basically, if you're ranked in the top 75 or so on the list, you're essentially a lock for the HOF unless you're Jo Jo White. Once you get past around 75, it's a guessing game. Once you get passed rank #90, you're unlikely to get in. The lowest ranked HOFer on this list of 250 players is Calvin Murphy at 205. There are only 4 HOFers ranked lower than 150.


Chris Webber - ranked 80th highest all time with a .7295 HOF probability. The only player above him who is eligible and not in the HOF is Jo Jo White. Ahead of guys like Mourning and Dikembe who some think are locks.

Rasheed Wallace - ranked 209th with a .0361 HOF probability. Won't and shouldn't get in.

Chauncey Billups - ranked 132nd with a .2144 HOF probability. Probably only consideration is the Finals MVP but likely won't make it.

Marc Jackson - unless I missed him, he's not in the top 250 players most likely to get in based on the formula.

Dikembe Mutombo - ranked 214th with a .0328 HOF probability. I could see him getting in more as a "contributor" than a "player" for his humanitarian acts as an NBA ambassador. I don't think he qualifies as a player.

Alonzo Mourning - ranked 106th with a .4723 HOF probability. I think 2006 helped him even though he was a back-up center and role player. Otherwise, I don't think he'd have a chance.

Robert Horry - not in the top 250 based on this formula.

Tracy McGrady - ranked 85th with a .6875 HOF probability. The modern perception of him by fans is much different from his actual statistical perception for the HOF. If he gets in, there will be plenty of people who will disagree with it, especially because of the playoff futility of the teams he's played for. But there's a far greater chance for him to get in than everyone else on the list other than his cousin. But I'm one of those who don't think he should get in either.

Grant Hill - ranked 111th with a .4405 HOF probability. Would rank higher if his college career was included.

Vince Carter - ranked 65th with .8628 HOF probability. A lot of what I said about T-Mac goes for Vince. But I think Vince could make it the same way Dominique did, over time with people appreciating his numbers and focusing less on what happened with his departure in Toronto and his inability to help teams get better later in his career. I initially said he wouldn't get in, but looking how highly he ranks statistically all time, I'm reconsidering that opinion.

Here are a couple other interesting names on the list and where they rank based on the formula they used.

Manu Ginobili - ranked 154th with a .1314 HOF probability. Doesn't take into consideration his international career.

Reggie Miller - ranked 190th with a .0553 HOF probability. Since there's a thread about him, thought I'd include him.

Good stuff Jam. I think Dikembe gets in not just for his contributions, but I think he's a memorable player. Sometimes I think the whole "fame" thing gets lost in the statistics.

Vince Carter was famous, explosive, and good stats. So why won't he make it in? Because there were other players who fit into the mold, but were more famous and have better stats. I don't think many players fit Dikembe's mold (and frankly, I think that defensive specialists are underrepresented in the Hall, which is why I appreciate DJ being in even if he doesn't have the stats.)

Offensive-minded players have stats that pop, defensive players have only RPG and BPG, and of the two, only RPG is a glamour stat.

[Killakobe81]

Good stuff Jam. I think Dikembe gets in not just for his contributions, but I think he's a memorable player. Sometimes I think the whole "fame" thing gets lost in the statistics.

Vince Carter was famous, explosive, and good stats. So why won't he make it in? Because there were other players who fit into the mold, but were more famous and have better stats. I don't think many players fit Dikembe's mold (and frankly, I think that defensive specialists are underrepresented in the Hall, which is why I appreciate DJ being in even if he doesn't have the stats.)

Offensive-minded players have stats that pop, defensive players have only RPG and BPG, and of the two, only RPG is a glamour stat.

Great points by both Lngrr and Jam ...

thing to remember with Deke and Zo they won DPOY and had some decent stats on both offense and defense especially Alonzo. Plus the last memory of Alonzo is him outplaying shaq and Damp in Game 6 swatting every Mavs shot in sight ...that matters.

[LnGrrrR]

By that same token, even though he's only #115 and hasn't won a championship, I think there's an outside chance for Steve Nash because he's a unique player.

[JamStone]

Steve became a lock with his first MVP. And if it wasn't a lock then, it became a 100% certainty with his second MVP.

[Killakobe81]

By that same token, even though he's only #115 and hasn't won a championship, I think there's an outside chance for Steve Nash because he's a unique player.

Agree. I think he gets in for the bogus backtoback MVP's AND for increasing the tempo of the game (along with D'antoni) plus the media sucks him off every national game. TBH he is great probaly the best combo PG (shooting/passing) I have ever seen ... but his defense makes Magic and Isiah's defense look like DJ and GP's ...

[coyotes_geek]

By that same token, even though he's only #115 and hasn't won a championship, I think there's an outside chance for Steve Nash because he's a unique player.

With 2 mvps, Nash is a lock.

I'm pretty sure every player who has won even just one MVP who is HOF eligible is in.

[LnGrrrR]

Steve became a lock with his first MVP. And if it wasn't a lock then, it became a 100% certainty with his second MVP.

I totally blanked about those. Excellent point. Surprised that only puts him at #115.

[JMarkJohns]

It's the basketball Hall of Fame. Hill will be in for his college and for his Gold Medal on the 1996 Dream Team. I think the voters will look favorably on him and his NBA career because he had an elite peak that was derailed by injury, and, despite numerous setbacks, never retired, kept fighting, and has proven very valuable again.

[ambchang]

Chris Webber - Would love to see him get it. I always loved his game, and everyone knows he was robbed in 02. On top of that, his Fab Five contributions in college would only bolster his case. But he would be a borderline guy, he, fairly or unfairly, was perceived to be a problem guy. I would say he has the highest chance amongst this group.

Rasheed Wallace - Love his game, but no way would he make it. Fantastic talent, but never really asserted himself to be the true dominant, revoluntionary player that he could be.

Chauncey Billups - Little chance. Again, love his game, but he seemed to be a tad bit overrated, especially his defense. My take is no.


Mark Jackson - Not likely. He dished a lot, but he accomplished little else ( I am assuming you are talking about the NY and Clippers guard, not that fatso who played for the Warriors).

Dikembe Mutombo - Great role player, but he simply couldn't carry his team. Defensive anchor, and his 4 DPoY will help him. But defense alone don't get you into the HoF. Dennis Johnson had to wait till he died, Cooper couldn't make it, Moncrief couldn't make it, Bowen would never make it, ditto Mark Eaton. I wouldn't be surprised either way, but my bet would be no.

Alonzo Mourning - Defensive ace, decent offensive game. But his productive career was relatively short due to his health. Pretty much the same as likelihood as Mutombo when all factors are in.


Robert Horry - No way.

Tracy McGrady - Possible, due solely to his scoring title. But again, he was a flash in the pan superstar, just too short and too associated with horrible teams.

Grant Hill - Too injured. Not going to happen based on his pro career, but his college career could put him there.

Vince Carter - Not happening. He could have if he stayed in Toronto and lead Toronto deep into the playoffs for a few years in a row (which is entirely possible given how much the East sucked in the early 2000s), but instead, he chose to pout, went on to the Nets and Magic to become the 2nd/3rd banana.

[LnGrrrR]

It's the basketball Hall of Fame. Hill will be in for his college and for his Gold Medal on the 1996 Dream Team. I think the voters will look favorably on him and his NBA career because he had an elite peak that was derailed by injury, and, despite numerous setbacks, never retired, kept fighting, and has proven very valuable again.

I don't know if Hill will make it, but I really like him as a player and person, and hope he'll get in there.

[JMarkJohns]

I don't know if Hill will make it, but I really like him as a player and person, and hope he'll get in there.

He won two National Championships while at Duke (getting to a third NC game losing to Arkansas), where he had a great career, and was a significant contributor (5th leading scorer) on the Olympic squad that broke the original Dream Team's records.

It's cumulative. His 7 year peak was proof of potential (finished as high as 3rd in MVP voting) and I don't think his injury will be counted against him to the point it keeps him out of the HoF.

I don't expect immediate enshrinement, but he'll get it. Honestly, I think Laettner gets in eventually to, as he was a top-10 NCAA player of all time. Maybe even top-5.

[LnGrrrR]

If Gale Sayers can get in the NFL for "peak period", I don't see why Hill can't. I'll cross my fingers.

[Blake]

Probably. But theoreticals don't have a big place in HoF discussions. It's about what a person did or didn't do.

True, and if Billups played as the 4th best person on two teams, he'd get a similar boost.

no doubt.

I'm playing that out as if I had a vote. If I did, those are theoreticals I play out.


Yes, but East Coast bias is more about media saturation. There's a ton of sports media in the East Coast (NY/BOS) moreso than Detroit/midwest. (Detroit isn't even the biggest media in that area, that would go to Chitown.)

duly noted.


Fair enough. But the Hall of Fame isn't just "Hall of Best Statistical Players". Rings, situations, teams etc etc all should be taken into account. Fairly or unfairly, DJ gets a boost from being on those iconic Boston teams.

Unfairly, imo.

But since he is in, I look at Billups career and see great similarities in stats, finals appearances and accolades.

If I'm a voter, I don't see how I can fairly leave Billups out.

I see it being a coin flip that he gets in, but if I had to guess, I think it lands on him getting in.

[Blake]

I totally blanked about those. Excellent point. Surprised that only puts him at #115.

apparently there is a very heavy emphasis on championships and offensive stats.

[JamStone]

If Gale Sayers can get in the NFL for "peak period", I don't see why Hill can't. I'll cross my fingers.

Hard to compare NFL players. The career lifespan of the average NFL runningback is about 4 years. It's rare to play 7, 8+ years in the NFL as a runningback. While in the NBA, HOF players have 10-13 year careers. Now, even longer. Grant Hill had a peak of about 6-7 years. That's pretty short for the NBA. Sayers had a short prime for even NFL standards but you have to realize the standards are different.

[LnGrrrR]

Unfairly, imo.

I won't argue that. When people think "HoF", I don't think DJ necessarily comes to mind. But there's a few other players in the HoF that are borderline as well. (Just look at all the 50/60 Celtics players in there.)



But since he is in, I look at Billups career and see great similarities in stats, finals appearances and accolades.

If I'm a voter, I don't see how I can fairly leave Billups out.

I see it being a coin flip that he gets in, but if I had to guess, I think it lands on him getting in.

I think the championships and defensive teams are enough to put DJ in, and Billups out. If DJ to me (an admitted C's homer) is a borderline HoF'er, then that leaves Chauncey on the other side. (Maybe unfairly, I won't argue that.)

[LnGrrrR]

Hard to compare NFL players. The career lifespan of the average NFL runningback is about 4 years. It's rare to play 7, 8+ years in the NFL as a runningback. While in the NBA, HOF players have 10-13 year careers. Now, even longer. Grant Hill had a peak of about 6-7 years. That's pretty short for the NBA. Sayers had a short prime for even NFL standards but you have to realize the standards are different.

I just think there's room for a few "peak" players in the Hall. Especially since Hill was a near-annual All-Star/annual All-NBA before his injury... avg'd 20 PPG, 8+ RPG, 6+ APG, plus RotY... add that all up with the "classiness" (:lol) AND his comeback story, and I think he has a decent shot.

[JMarkJohns]

Hard to compare NFL players. The career lifespan of the average NFL runningback is about 4 years. It's rare to play 7, 8+ years in the NFL as a runningback. While in the NBA, HOF players have 10-13 year careers. Now, even longer. Grant Hill had a peak of about 6-7 years. That's pretty short for the NBA. Sayers had a short prime for even NFL standards but you have to realize the standards are different.

Agreed. I don't believe Hill would get in if only predicated upon his NBA career. However, I think his peak pre-injury showed his HOF potential within that NBA career enough, that when coupled with one of the greatest collegiate careers, Olympic success, and being a beloved player and person, he'll eventually get the nod. It'll be close, but the cumulative equates to HOF recognition.

I think his injury will be viewed somewhat tragically in relation to everything and the fact he keep fighting to play showed the heart many wanted to see of him on the court at times. The total career answers some of the questions in a round-about sort of way.

[Kyle Orton]

How the fuck is Deke a sure thing? He was a role player.

[JMarkJohns]

How the fuck is Deke a sure thing? He was a role player.

4-time Defensive POY, multiple All-NBA teams, 8-time All-Star and 2nd All-Time in blocks.

[JamStone]

Deke is far from a sure thing as a player.

I think Ben Wallace has a better chance than Dikembe.

[Blake]

4-time Defensive POY, multiple All-NBA teams, 8-time All-Star and 2nd All-Time in blocks.

then that means Ben Wallace would probably get in too.

[FkLA]

Decided to go to basketball reference HOF probability to see what they thought. It obviously isn't 100% accurate but it's an interesting gauge because it is based on statistical information and it does seem somewhat accurate.

HOF Probability list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

The formula they use: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Basically, if you're ranked in the top 75 or so on the list, you're essentially a lock for the HOF unless you're Jo Jo White. Once you get past around 75, it's a guessing game. Once you get passed rank #90, you're unlikely to get in. The lowest ranked HOFer on this list of 250 players is Calvin Murphy at 205. There are only 4 HOFers ranked lower than 150.


Chris Webber - ranked 80th highest all time with a .7295 HOF probability. The only player above him who is eligible and not in the HOF is Jo Jo White. Ahead of guys like Mourning and Dikembe who some think are locks.

Rasheed Wallace - ranked 209th with a .0361 HOF probability. Won't and shouldn't get in.

Chauncey Billups - ranked 132nd with a .2144 HOF probability. Probably only consideration is the Finals MVP but likely won't make it.

Marc Jackson - unless I missed him, he's not in the top 250 players most likely to get in based on the formula.

Dikembe Mutombo - ranked 214th with a .0328 HOF probability. I could see him getting in more as a "contributor" than a "player" for his humanitarian acts as an NBA ambassador. I don't think he qualifies as a player.

Alonzo Mourning - ranked 106th with a .4723 HOF probability. I think 2006 helped him even though he was a back-up center and role player. Otherwise, I don't think he'd have a chance.

Robert Horry - not in the top 250 based on this formula.

Tracy McGrady - ranked 85th with a .6875 HOF probability. The modern perception of him by fans is much different from his actual statistical perception for the HOF. If he gets in, there will be plenty of people who will disagree with it, especially because of the playoff futility of the teams he's played for. But there's a far greater chance for him to get in than everyone else on the list other than his cousin. But I'm one of those who don't think he should get in either.

Grant Hill - ranked 111th with a .4405 HOF probability. Would rank higher if his college career was included.

Vince Carter - ranked 65th with .8628 HOF probability. A lot of what I said about T-Mac goes for Vince. But I think Vince could make it the same way Dominique did, over time with people appreciating his numbers and focusing less on what happened with his departure in Toronto and his inability to help teams get better later in his career. I initially said he wouldn't get in, but looking how highly he ranks statistically all time, I'm reconsidering that opinion.

Here are a couple other interesting names on the list and where they rank based on the formula they used.

Manu Ginobili - ranked 154th with a .1314 HOF probability. Doesn't take into consideration his international career.

Reggie Miller - ranked 190th with a .0553 HOF probability. Since there's a thread about him, thought I'd include him.

Jamstone with the goods tbh.

It does however seem that like many of the other formulas that are around today, it kind of favors strong offensive numbers...I dont think defensive specialists like Deke, Zo, and Big Ben would have any chance if we go by the formula. Since ppg which was not their strength are a key part of the formula, while bpg arent considered at all. Interesting seeing how the other more offensive-minded players stack up against each other though.

[FkLA]

Deke is far from a sure thing as a player.

I think Ben Wallace has a better chance than Dikembe.


then that means Ben Wallace would probably get in too.

I know Ben has his share of DPOYs as well but I dont think he has the accolades JMark brought up for Deke's case...he also cant compare with Deke's longevity and Id also bring up the difference in the eras. Deke played when the center postition was extremely competitive and held his own. Add his humanitarian efforts and I think its pretty certain that he'll get in.

Starting to lean towards Hill getting in as well...6-7 yrs as a superstar+two gold medals+two national championships is pretty hard to ignore.

[TampaDude]

With 2 mvps, Nash is a lock.

I'm pretty sure every player who has won even just one MVP who is HOF eligible is in.

^ this

Nash is a LOCK for the HOF. You're on crack if you think he doesn't get in, ring or no ring.

[JamStone]

Good point (edit: in response to post #79).

But I guess offense, particularly scoring, is and always has been considered among the biggest factors. Guys like Mark Eaton and Michael Cooper and Alvin Robertson and Sidney Moncrief aren't even on the radar for the HOF. Neither will Bruce Bowen. Neither will Marcus Camby, but we all know he a faux defender anyway so that's a good thing.

Zo might have had a chance if he stayed healthy because he was also a solid offensive producer in his prime.

Deke and Ben Wallace are very unique cases and it will be interesting to see if they get in when they are eligible. The league really hasn't had many other guys like them who dominated that much defensively. As I said it earlier, I think Dikembe has a better shot as a contributor for his humanitarian acts around the world while representing the NBA. The obvious advantage Ben Wallace has over Deke is that he was the anchor and heart and soul of a championship team. He also anchored one of the best defensive teams in the history of the league. He also has a couple distinctly impressive career accomplishments. He's one of five players to lead the league in both rebounding and blocked shots. The other three were Hakeem, Kareem, and Bill Walton and then later Dwight Howard. He's also one of I believe only six players to have accumulated 10,000 career rebounds, 2,000 career blocks, and 1,000 career steals. The other five are Hakeem, David Robinson, Kareem, Patrick Ewing, and Robert Parish, all HOFers.

But I do agree with you that the formula basketball reference uses does not really account for players like Dikembe and Ben. Either would be examples of HOF exceptions, not under the normal standards of HOF players.

[JamStone]

I know Ben has his share of DPOYs as well but I dont think he has the accolades JMark brought up for Deke's case...he also cant compare with Deke's longevity and Id also bring up the difference in the eras. Deke played when the center postition was extremely competitive and held his own. Add his humanitarian efforts and I think its pretty certain that he'll get in.


Read my post above. The biggest distinction is that Ben Wallace helped lead a team to a championship while Deke did not. Also, the 2003-04 Pistons might have been the best defensive team in the history of the league and Ben anchored it. I mentioned a couple of other tidbits that distinguish Ben Wallace as a player. Also, perhaps not a real consideration, but also realize that Ben dominated in the defensive categories that centers generally do as basically a 6'7 center. HOF voters might not consider that, but it's something of note.

[Blake]

Deke played when the center postition was extremely competitive and held his own. Add his humanitarian efforts and I think its pretty certain that he'll get in.


interesting how many people put an emphasis on his humanitarian efforts.

[Blake]

just curious, anyone have a list of players that got in on their college basketball career alone?

[JMarkJohns]

I've long had an issue with the HOF monitor equation because most major awards don't factor in, neither do 2nd and 3rd team selections or All-Star nominations.

They need to revamp it to include all these honors, albeit to a lesser extent than the honors they do include.

[mardigan]

Vince Carter - Not happening. He could have if he stayed in Toronto and lead Toronto deep into the playoffs for a few years in a row (which is entirely possible given how much the East sucked in the early 2000s), but instead, he chose to pout, went on to the Nets and Magic to become the 2nd/3rd banana.

I think Vince will get in no problem. He will end up hanging around the top 30 all time in scoring for awhile, and I don't see how a top 30 scorer doesn't get in, even without the other accomplishments to back it up.

[LnGrrrR]

then that means Ben Wallace would probably get in too.

I don't think I'd mind that too much, tbh. I'm sure there's people on the offensive side who were a complete liability on the defensive end that are in the HoF, after all. I don't think one side is necessarily more important than the other.

[LILCOOK]

mourning won a title and was a big reason of it bc of his play during the mavs heat series. he basically made shaq a bench player in that series.

i think you gotta put in mourning in there.

[HarlemHeat37]

When I said Mutombo should be a lock in the HOF, I meant IMO, since he obviously isn't even nearly a lock by their standards, especially since offense is always rewarded ahead of defense..it should also be noted that unlike Ben Wallace, Mutombo was never a complete liability on the offensive end..in his prime, he was decent at creating his own shot in the post, and he wasn't a liability on the FT line..

- Mutombo was the first player to win more than 2 DPOYs..he set the standard, despite playing in an era that had arguably the best group of defensive big men in NBA history..

- Mutombo's career overlapped with Shaq, Olajuwon, Robinson and Ewing..it's difficult to build up accolades, when you have competition of that nature..

- Mutombo has longevity in his favor..he was an elite defensive player deep into his 30s, and was still one of the better defensive Cs in the NBA in his late 30s..

- JMark already pointed out his accolades..

- Mutombo was the best player on many playoff teams, but most notably, the Denver team that upset the #1 seed Sonics, which should count for something IMO..he averaged 6 blocks per game during that series, one of the highest marks for a series, in NBA history..

- His humanitarian work will help..image definitely counts for something IMO, especially when you're a borderline player..

[redzero]

:lol @ Horry deserving to be in the HoF.

[HarlemHeat37]

The HOF monitor is just the formula to predict which players get in, which is based on the admissions from many years ago..it's not a gauge of which players should get it, but it's a decent predictor, based on past admissions/omissions..it should definitely be updated though, IMO..it's also too reliant on championship success, and it doesn't effectively weigh longevity..


Webber's prime is remembered fondly, due to the popularity of the Kings, and his overall and possibly unique skill set when he entered the NBA IMO..his peak didn't last long enough, he was always hurt, he doesn't have the accolades, and more importantly, he was a playoff choker..if he had peaked for a longer amount of time, then maybe, otherwise, I don't think he should get in..


Ben Wallace, like Mutombo, is very debatable, especially since he was an offensive liability..however, he was the best player on an unexpected title team, he's the only guy(other than Mutombo) to rack up DPOYs at the rate in which he has amassed them, he's a multiple time All-Star..

Wallace's playoff run in 2003-2004 was disgusting..the Pistons were 31 points per/100 poss better with Ben Wallace on the floor, which is the highest number of any player since this stat was released(in the early 2000s), only Lebron has been close to matching it..

[LILCOOK]

robert horry will prob go in as one of the best role players in nba history and being deadly from 3.

[hitmanyr2k]

Chris Webber - Borderline
Rasheed Wallace - No
Chauncey Billups - No
Marc Jackson - No
Dikembe Mutombo - Yes
Alonzo Mourning - Borderline
Robert Horry - HELL NO!!
Tracy McGrady - No
Grant Hill - Borderline, factoring in college career
Vince Carter - No

[baseline bum]

Might sound crazy, but I think upsetting the Sonics in the first round is big for Deke. Him on the ground clutching the ball after taking Seattle down in their building is one of the iconic moments in NBA history.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/175114/Nuggets_8_t600_medium.jpg

Plus, you gotta factor in him being one of the most feared shotblockers in the game from 1991 to 2008; just ridiculous longevity. I think Mutombo is a mortal lock for the hall.

[Killakobe81]

Might sound crazy, but I think upsetting the Sonics in the first round is big for Deke. Him on the ground clutching the ball after taking Seattle down in their building is one of the iconic moments in NBA history.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/175114/Nuggets_8_t600_medium.jpg

Plus, you gotta factor in him being one of the most feared shotblockers in the game from 1991 to 2008; just ridiculous longevity. I think Mutombo is a mortal lock for the hall.

Iconic moment has only happened twice I think we maybe due for a third entry ...:rollin

All kidding aside I think he gets in ... not sure he is a lock though ...

[JMarkJohns]

I know the Fab Four no longer technically exists, but Webber was the epicenter of a shock wave felt throughout basketball for the next two decades. He's in. Unless they are stupid, he's in.

[baseline bum]

Wallace's playoff run in 2003-2004 was disgusting..the Pistons were 31 points per/100 poss better with Ben Wallace on the floor, which is the highest number of any player since this stat was released(in the early 2000s), only Lebron has been close to matching it..

Out of curiosity, what were they for him the next year in the playoffs? I remember lots of Pistons fans talking about how he fell off a bit that year, but I hated his ass for the way he could pressure the Spurs guards in the backcourt that year. How many bigmen can do that? I still have nightmares about him and Hunter destroying Beno Udrih every time he brought the ball up the floor. :lol

[baseline bum]

Iconic moment has only happened twice I think we maybe due for a third entry ...:rollin


Nah, I think you guys are too far back to catch San Antonio for that 1-seed. Maybe a repeat of a 7 over a 2?

[Blake]

- His humanitarian work will help..image definitely counts for something IMO, especially when you're a borderline player..

just curious, what other HOFer has humanitarian on his resume?

[Blake]

Grant Hill - Borderline, factoring in college career


what other player is in because they factored in college career?

[J_Paco]

what other player is in because they factored in college career?

First guy that comes to mind is Bill Walton. His great college career at UCLA definitely aided Walton in reaching the HOF, especially when his NBA career was dampened by injuries.

[LILCOOK]

bobby hurley would of been the next john stockton

[JMarkJohns]

what other player is in because they factored in college career?

James Worthy was helped by his NCAA career as much as his NBA championships for his good but not great NBA career.

[rayjayjohnson]

Sheed and Billups Hall of Famers?? :lmao:lmao:lmao


you mean finals mvp, team usa leader chauncey billups?

[Jt.ONE]

Chris Webber
Rasheed Wallace
Chauncey Billups
Marc Jackson
Dikembe Mutombo
Alonzo Mourning
Robert Horry
Tracy McGrady
Grant Hill
Vince Carter

the only 2 that come in mind that MIGHT be are mutombo and mourning, but they are borderline to me imo.

marc jackson 3rd all time assist leader, there must be some credit for him there?

[JMarkJohns]

the only 2 that come in mind that MIGHT be are mutombo and mourning, but they are borderline to me imo.

marc jackson 3rd all time assist leader, there must be some credit for him there?

Jackson wasn't that good. His impressive career stats are one of longevity, not supreme talent. He's an above average PG with a few very good years. He's a one-time All-Star with career averages of 10 ppg, 8 apg on 45% shooting.

Not Hall worthy. The fact he's even nominated is absurd.

[Blake]

I don't think I'd mind that too much, tbh. I'm sure there's people on the offensive side who were a complete liability on the defensive end that are in the HoF, after all. I don't think one side is necessarily more important than the other.

Gervin was pretty mediocre on defense.

[ChuckD]

Decided to go to basketball reference HOF probability to see what they thought. It obviously isn't 100% accurate but it's an interesting gauge because it is based on statistical information and it does seem somewhat accurate.

HOF Probability list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

The formula they use: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Basically, if you're ranked in the top 75 or so on the list, you're essentially a lock for the HOF unless you're Jo Jo White. Once you get past around 75, it's a guessing game. Once you get passed rank #90, you're unlikely to get in. The lowest ranked HOFer on this list of 250 players is Calvin Murphy at 205. There are only 4 HOFers ranked lower than 150.


Chris Webber - ranked 80th highest all time with a .7295 HOF probability. The only player above him who is eligible and not in the HOF is Jo Jo White. Ahead of guys like Mourning and Dikembe who some think are locks.

Rasheed Wallace - ranked 209th with a .0361 HOF probability. Won't and shouldn't get in.

Chauncey Billups - ranked 132nd with a .2144 HOF probability. Probably only consideration is the Finals MVP but likely won't make it.

Marc Jackson - unless I missed him, he's not in the top 250 players most likely to get in based on the formula.

Dikembe Mutombo - ranked 214th with a .0328 HOF probability. I could see him getting in more as a "contributor" than a "player" for his humanitarian acts as an NBA ambassador. I don't think he qualifies as a player.

Alonzo Mourning - ranked 106th with a .4723 HOF probability. I think 2006 helped him even though he was a back-up center and role player. Otherwise, I don't think he'd have a chance.

Robert Horry - not in the top 250 based on this formula.

Tracy McGrady - ranked 85th with a .6875 HOF probability. The modern perception of him by fans is much different from his actual statistical perception for the HOF. If he gets in, there will be plenty of people who will disagree with it, especially because of the playoff futility of the teams he's played for. But there's a far greater chance for him to get in than everyone else on the list other than his cousin. But I'm one of those who don't think he should get in either.

Grant Hill - ranked 111th with a .4405 HOF probability. Would rank higher if his college career was included.

Vince Carter - ranked 65th with .8628 HOF probability. A lot of what I said about T-Mac goes for Vince. But I think Vince could make it the same way Dominique did, over time with people appreciating his numbers and focusing less on what happened with his departure in Toronto and his inability to help teams get better later in his career. I initially said he wouldn't get in, but looking how highly he ranks statistically all time, I'm reconsidering that opinion.

Here are a couple other interesting names on the list and where they rank based on the formula they used.

Manu Ginobili - ranked 154th with a .1314 HOF probability. Doesn't take into consideration his international career.

Reggie Miller - ranked 190th with a .0553 HOF probability. Since there's a thread about him, thought I'd include him.

Ginobili won't get in using the NBA formula, but he's a mortal lock for his Euroleague and FIBA WC/Olympics accomplishments. Just look at Drazen Petrovic's HoF profile page and you'll see why Manu is going in.

[JamStone]

Thanks but I already knew that. That's specifically why I mentioned his international accomplishments weren't factored into his ranking using this formula.

[DMC]

Wow..Did you just compare Dominique Wilkins to Robert Horry?


Holy fuck.

No worse than comparing Kobe to MJ.

[DMC]

you mean finals mvp, team usa leader chauncey billups?

He means "PG for the Nuggets, otherwise you would be saying the same fucking thing Billups"

[ChuckD]

No worse than comparing Kobe to MJ.

Robert Horry is a 7ppg career scorer, so yes, comparing him to 'Nique is way worse than Kobe/MJ comparisons.