The 10 Most Important Games Remaining On the Schedule

[cheguevara]

By Marilyn Dubinski (Spurs Featured Columnist) on February 22, 2011
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/616342-san-antonio-spurs-the-10-most-important-games-remaining-on-the-schedule

With the "second half" of the season (if you really want to call it that) coming up, the Spurs have 26 games left to prepare for a championship run through the playoffs.

They enter the final stretch with a more comfortable lead in the conference (six games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks) and league (four games ahead of the Boston Celtics) than they could have imagined.

Here are the 10 most important games remaining on their schedule that includes 14 home games and 15 against currently playoff bound teams. (Note: that includes both the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz who are currently tied for the eighth seed in the West.)


Feb. 23: Oklahoma City Thunder
Already playing with a target on their backs, the Spurs cannot afford to start the final stretch with a loss.

March 1: At Memphis Grizzlies
The Spurs cannot give up games to an inferior divisional opponent, especially with three meetings between them left and a potential first round matchup looming.

March 4: Miami Heat
All the Spurs have to do to win is expose Miami's weak bench and post players by playing good defense, rebounding and keeping their role players at bay.

March 16: Los Angeles Lakers
They cannot allow Lakers to get any some kind of confidence builder for the final stretch, and get a game or two back from those annoying small-market Spurs who just won't go away

March 18: At Dallas Mavericks
One thing the Spurs have yet to prove this season is that they can beat the Mavs at full strength. This is the last chance to do it before another playoff series that would have a lot more at stake than simply advancing to the second round.

March 23: At Denver Nuggets

March 25: At Portland Trail Blazers
As a potential first or second round matchup, it does not bode well that Spurs have lost five straight games in Portland. Now would be the time to rectify that issue and not give up winnable games.

March 31: Boston Celtics
Should they meet in the Finals, the Spurs will likely have home-court advantage and need to prove they can beat Paul Pierce and Co. at home.

April 12: At Los Angeles Lakers
The last thing the Spurs want to do is give them hope and momentum before a potential second- or third-round series. This is also both teams' last chances to prove their worth in the regular season, so expect another dog fight.

April 13: At Phoenix Suns
It can be a meaningless game where the Spurs have nothing to gain or lose and will rest the starters. Or it could be a tightly contested game with the Suns fighting to make the playoffs or improve their seeding and the Spurs looking to hold on to the top.

[wontstartdumbthreads]

I didn't see where you included Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals or Game 3 of the NBA Finals. These ususally prove to be pivotal.

[Seventyniner]

I didn't see where you included Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals or Game 3 of the NBA Finals. These ususally prove to be pivotal.

That's because we don't know the dates or locations of those games yet. Duh.

[wontstartdumbthreads]

That's because we don't know the dates or locations of those games yet. Duh.

It's a good point. But we do know they will be away games.

[cheguevara]

"on the schedule"

[wontstartdumbthreads]

"on the schedule"

My bad. Someone said the word "sammich" in another thread and it got me thinking about how much I miss Bennigan's Monte Cristo sammich.

[hater]

OKC tomorrow, Dallas and Portland IMO are the only must wins.

[Agloco]

OKC tomorrow, Dallas and Portland IMO are the only must wins.

You need to consider adding LA, Boston and Miami to that list. 1 of 2 from LA and Miami will do. We need to beat Boston here though.

[DesignatedT]

Every game is equally important. Our goal is to lock the #1 throughout, whoever we beat to accomplish that shouldn't matter.

[Dex]

My bad. Someone said the word "sammich" in another thread and it got me thinking about how much I miss Bennigan's Monte Cristo sammich.

That thing was a lover and a whore at the same time.

[wontstartdumbthreads]

That thing was a lover and a whore at the same time.

:toast

I don't know though. Once you fry it, put on the powder sugar and jelly, it's pretty much all whore.

[Rummpd]

April 12 and 13 will both be totally meaningless.

[Mugen]

Health > Any Remaining Game

[Rummpd]

Spurs get to 52 and 10 I like HCA the rest of the way.

[justinandimcool]

April 12 and 13 will both be totally meaningless.

This. Starters won't play. Don't wanna give the Lakers any momentum/confidence boost to start the playoffs.

[Obstructed_View]

The Spurs have done well this year by treating only one game like it's the most important on the schedule: This game.

[UnWantedTheory]

You need to consider adding LA, Boston and Miami to that list. 1 of 2 from LA and Miami will do. We need to beat Boston here though.

[ShoogarBear]

I don't know about ten. But I know which are the 14 most important.

[spurs10]

The Spurs have done well this year by treating only one game like it's the most important on the schedule: This game.
:toast

[hater]

this will be a good meter of how we progress rest of the season.

IMO,
Spurs go 7-3 or better: West AND league is locked up
Spurs go 6-4: West is locked up but the league not
Spurs go 5-5: We might not get the West, goes down to the wire
Spurs go 4-5: Spurs end up 2nd
Spurs go 3-7 or worse: Spurs end up 2nd or 3rd in the West

again, the magic number is 7

[tuncaboylu]

I don't think that we will lost our West lead even we get 3-7. The other games are very easy and we can winn all but one at most. If we lose 8 games in the remaining schedule, we will finish with 64-18 which is way better than enough to win West.

[hater]

I don't think that we will lost our West lead even we get 3-7. The other games are very easy and we can winn all but one at most. If we lose 8 games in the remaining schedule, we will finish with 64-18 which is way better than enough to win West.

again this is just a meter. If we lose 7 games in this 10. We damn sure will lose a lot more in the other games. We have lost to weak opponents already.

7 baby. 7

[TheSullyMonster]

My bad. Someone said the word "sammich" in another thread and it got me thinking about how much I miss Bennigan's Monte Cristo sammich.

God, I miss that thing.

[Budkin]

The games at the end of the season will be rest time unless we completely collapse.

[hater]

6 to go. next up, Memphis

[GSH]

I didn't see this thread when I posted the info below. Maybe it's worth re-posting here, since you could make a case that there are really just two games left with extra significance.

THE big game is March 18 against the Mavs. If the Spurs win that one, it would be the equivalent of a two-game swing in the standings, because it would guarantee the Spurs the tie-breaker. So the Mavs would have to win 1 more game to finish with the #1 seed in the West.

If you assume a Spurs victory against Dallas, it is the equivalent of having an 8 game lead with 24 to play. (7 actual games, plus the tiebreaker.) That's pretty damned close to insurmountable.

BUT... if you assume that the Spurs lose that one, it would give us a 5 game lead with 24 to play. PLUS it would give the Mavs the possibility of winning a tiebreaker - so it could be the equivalent of just a 4 game lead with 24 to play. That is definitely not insurmountable.

The one other important game is March 31, against Boston, for similar reasons. If the Spurs lose that one, it would guarantee Boston a tiebreaker, should the two teams finish with the same record.

By beating both Dallas and Boston, the Spurs could pretty much wrap up the best record by going just 14-9 (.609) the rest of the way. Boston would have to go 23-3, or Dallas would have to go 23-1. In other words - win those two games and the Spurs can just about coast to HCA throughout the playoffs.

That makes those two games so important, the Spurs ought to be playing them like the prison team from The Longest Yard.

[Rummpd]

Last nights win was huge as it was the kind of team Spurs might have lost in previous years and the refs were horrible and at times Spurs did not match the Thunder effort but still won.

Spurs will go 16 and 9m (63 and 10) or 17 and 8 (64 and 18) so the rest is probably irrelevant as no team is probably going to have more than 62 wins but per above beating Dallas would be huge anyway and IMO splitting the other games: 2 against Heat, 1 Boston and 1st against LAL gets them over the top to the HCA.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds has Spurs with about a 93% chance of hanging onto the HCA in the West

Current simulation with range he has for each has:

Spurs 64 (54-72)
Heat 60 (50-67)
Celtics 59 (48-67)
Mavs 57 (46-65)
Bulls 56 (46-65)
LAL 55 47-63)

Most likely LAL and Mavs will both win IMO about 58 games but I could see the Mavs with their more favorable schedule (only thing LAL has going for it is less BBs) winning 61 and the Heat could get to 62 win area.

If Spurs get to 63-64 they should lock it up but it might get close near the end - and I would love to have the Spurs lock up HCA all the way through before the back to back starting with the LAL on the 2nd to last game of the year.

[hater]

next up Miami

[hater]

this will be a good meter of how we progress rest of the season.

IMO,
Spurs go 7-3 or better: West AND league is locked up
Spurs go 6-4: West is locked up but the league not
Spurs go 5-5: We might not get the West, goes down to the wire
Spurs go 4-5: Spurs end up 2nd
Spurs go 3-7 or worse: Spurs end up 2nd or 3rd in the West

again, the magic number is 7

mmm not looking good. we are 2-2 with 6 games to go.

March 18: At Dallas Mavericks
March 23: At Denver Nuggets
March 25: At Portland Trail Blazers
March 31: Boston Celtics
April 12: At Los Angeles Lakers
April 13: At Phoenix Suns

Given our tough as shit schedule I don't know if we gonna lock up the league anymore. And the mavs game just got 10x more important.

next up mavs. Whoever wins, that win is worth 2 games...

[703 Spurz]

mmm not looking good. we are 2-2 with 6 games to go.

March 18: At Dallas Mavericks
March 23: At Denver Nuggets
March 25: At Portland Trail Blazers
March 31: Boston Celtics
April 12: At Los Angeles Lakers
April 13: At Phoenix Suns

Given our tough as shit schedule I don't know if we gonna lock up the league anymore. And the mavs game just got 10x more important.

next up mavs. Whoever wins, that win is worth 2 games...

Well Dallas still has to play: @NO and vs NYK on a B2B, vs LAL, @POR, vs SA, @UTH and @PHX on a B2B, @LAL on the 2nd night of a B2B, @POR on the 2nd night of a B2B, vs DEN, and vs PHX.

Those are just the difficult games. They could easily drop 3 of those which means if they did, they'd have at least 20 losses. The Spurs would need to finish 12-7 to secure the division.

[703 Spurz]

LA still has to play: @MIA, @DAL, vs ORL, vs POR, vs PHX, vs NO, vs DAL (all on a 7 game homestand), @UTH, vs DEN, vs UTH, @POR, vs OKC, and vs SA (@SAC on last B2B of season).

They're a bit further back than the Spurs are and have played two more games so far. Should the Spurs win their next two, they're up 7 in the loss column. LA would have to finish even better than Dallas to win the conference, at least with the No.1 seed.

[hater]

yes but we lose to Dallas and the West is going down to the wire most definitely. which means no rest for our starters, etc, etc.

[Lebowski Brickowski]

We don't play the fakers on March 16th. wth?

edit: oh, i guess she meant March 6th. I didn't see the dateline earlier.

[tdunk21]

we play lakers 5 times this year?

[John Basedow]

LA is not winning the #1 seed in the West this year...too far back with too little to play. I do expect them to overlap Dallas for #2 though. No matter, winning one game in San Antonio is a piece of cake for the 3-time defending WC champs

[John Basedow]

we play lakers 5 times this year?

No, just 4

[tdunk21]

LA is not winning the #1 seed in the West this year...too far back with too little to play. I do expect them to overlap Dallas for #2 though. No matter, winning one game in San Antonio is a piece of cake for the 3-time defending WC champs

u try very hard....work on those trollin skills and come back....coz u sound stupid...

[John Basedow]

u try very hard....work on those trollin skills and come back....coz u sound stupid...

Why do I need to work on them when:

A. What I said was factual (unless of course some other team won the West the last 3 years) and

B. You follow me around like a lapdog and end up getting trolled in multiple threads as a result of it.


Good one, scro :tu

[hater]

this will be a good meter of how we progress rest of the season.

IMO,
Spurs go 7-3 or better: West AND league is locked up
Spurs go 6-4: West is locked up but the league not
Spurs go 5-5: We might not get the West, goes down to the wire
Spurs go 4-5: Spurs end up 2nd
Spurs go 3-7 or worse: Spurs end up 2nd or 3rd in the West

again, the magic number is 7

damn, sometimes I scare myself. This is pretty much spot on

we are currently 3-3. We need 2 more wins to lock up West.
March 25: At Portland Trail Blazers
March 31: Boston Celtics
April 12: At Los Angeles Lakers
April 13: At Phoenix Suns


again, as I said recently it would not be so bad to fall to #2 anyway...

[in2deep]

I don't think anybody saw the lakers coming. :pctoss