Ran Some Numbers

[024]

so i was concerned when i compared the spurs remaining schedule against the mavs. there are many b2bs left (6 i think) for the spurs and they still have to face dallas, lakers (twice), boston, and heat (twice). the mavs and lakers' schedule seem like a cake walk, giving them the opportunity to catch up to the spurs. so i decided to look at the numbers.

there are 23 games left for both the mavs and spurs. if the spurs go .500 (12-11) the rest of the way, they're overall record will be 61-21. to catch up to the spurs, dallas will have to go 18-5.

if the mavs astonish everyone (possible) and go 20-3 the remainder of the way, the spurs have to go 14-9. and so forth. spurs also own the tiebreakers for now in the head to head matchup. even if the mavs win in their last game with the spurs, the head to head will be tied and spurs own the next tie breaker which is i believe is the vs. conference record.

[Spursfan101]

Cool

[TampaDude]

So what you're saying is, we all but have HCA locked up.

[TIMMYD!]

We're getting the #1 seed. No problem.

[024]

btw, the mavs schedule has a decent number of b2bs (5) but only have to face the lakers (twice more) and the spurs one more time. the rest hard games are against 2nd tier teams like NO, portland, and the knicks. all very winnable games.

[024]

So what you're saying is, we all but have HCA locked up.
not necessarily. the spurs will slow down and the mavs do have the tools to go 20-3 the rest of the way. but yeah, it would be pretty hard for them to catch up.

[TampaDude]

not necessarily. the spurs will slow down and the mavs do have the tools to go 20-3 the rest of the way. but yeah, it would be pretty hard for them to catch up.

Yeah...hence the "all but"... :lol

[ChuckD]

not necessarily. the spurs will slow down and the mavs do have the tools to go 20-3 the rest of the way. but yeah, it would be pretty hard for them to catch up.

I ran the numbers, too, and if we go 17-6 to win 66 games, the Mavs have to win out (23-0) just to tie. Considering the current tear that they are on, I don't see that happening.

If they go 20-3, we can go 14-9.

[Obstructed_View]

And even if the Spurs lose HCA, they can still beat anyone if they're healthy and playing well.

[EricB]

And even if the Spurs lose HCA, they can still beat anyone if they're healthy and playing well.

But but but they didn't make a TRADE!!!

[Obstructed_View]

But but but they didn't make a TRADE!!!

Yeah, I don't know how they weren't able to get Jack for Dice and Quinn and a first rounder or to get Thabeet to start ahead of Blair.

I was almost tempted to say that the Spurs only need to worry about Boston catching them, but didn't want to jinx it.

[Cry Havoc]

get Thabeet to start ahead of Blair.

You need your medal taken away from you unless this is sarcasm. :wow

[Obstructed_View]

You need your medal taken away from you unless this is sarcasm. :wow

Well, Thabeet has length. Isn't that what the Spurs need to be able to play against the Lakers? Doesn't matter that he fucking sucks.

[Mel_13]

Final 23 game record in the Big 3/RRT/AT&T Center era:

2002-03: 19-4
2003-04: 18-5
2004-05: 13-10
2005-06: 16-7
2006-07: 17-6
2007-08: 14-9
2008-09: 14-9
2009-10: 15-8

[Frenzy]

I ran some number too..if spurs win more games than any team ..spurs win the champion.

[024]

I ran some number too..if spurs win more games than any team ..spurs win the champion.
regular season championship

[Rummpd]

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

I like the Spurs odds based on simulations of schedules and play to date = about 93% Spurs will get HCA in West.

[Texas_Ranger]

I remember the 05 end of the season when Timmy was injured. Thank god he was ok for the Playoffs.

[Rummpd]

Mavs still have a game vs. SAS, two vs. LAL and a back to back NOH and the Knicks.

Mavs actually have an amazing record with Dirk missing about 8 games but their point differntial is under 4 (3.88) and even if he had played those games historically they seem to be an over-achieving team. They are the only WC threat to catch the Spurs for HCA (although for overall Boston with only 5 less losses and Heat get two games against SAS as well left and have only 17 losses)

[Martin R]

if SPURS don't get the #1 seed, I'll change my sex.
That's how sure I am that I am ga....sorry...that Spurs will win it all.

[K-State Spur]

I don't see the Spurs losing HCA - but, ideally, you'd like to extend (or at least hold) the current lead over the next 6 weeks so that Pop can rest the starters over the last 2.

Dallas does have stretch coming up where they will play 10 of 15 on the road, which will likely determine if they remain within striking distance down the stretch.

[Budkin]

Final 23 game record in the Big 3/RRT/AT&T Center era:

2002-03: 19-4
2003-04: 18-3
2004-05: 13-10
2005-06: 16-7
2006-07: 17-6
2007-08: 14-9
2008-09: 14-9
2009-10: 15-8

Wow even last year when we sucked we did well in this stretch. Really looks like we have this shit locked up. Just got to keep praying that there are no injuries.

[K-State Spur]

Wow even last year when we sucked we did well in this stretch. Really looks like we have this shit locked up. Just got to keep praying that there are no injuries.

Don't forget that while last year was the worst of the Big 3 era, this team was playing terrific ball in the second half (still not a lot of depth, but got relatively healthy).

Interesting that the worst record down the stretch was '04 - '05 (championship season). But, looking at the results, the Spurs had essentially locked up the second seed and weren't passing PHX, following a b2b in which both games went to double OT on the road (clips and warriors), Pop basically through the in the towel during the final 10 days.

[Chieflion]

Don't forget that while last year was the worst of the Big 3 era, this team was playing terrific ball in the second half (still not a lot of depth, but got relatively healthy).

Interesting that the worst record down the stretch was '04 - '05 (championship season). But, looking at the results, the Spurs had essentially locked up the second seed and weren't passing PHX, following a b2b in which both games went to double OT on the road (clips and warriors), Pop basically through the in the towel during the final 10 days.

I believe Duncan was out for the final stretch of the 2005 season too. That counts for something too. Spurs still ended up with a pretty darn good record. This year's team has a chance to surpass all these records, which is an amazing feat in itself. 49-10, best record in the league, career low minutes for Tim Duncan. Feels good.

[Cry Havoc]

I don't see the Spurs losing HCA - but, ideally, you'd like to extend (or at least hold) the current lead over the next 6 weeks so that Pop can rest the starters over the last 2.

Dallas does have stretch coming up where they will play 10 of 15 on the road, which will likely determine if they remain within striking distance down the stretch.

Dallas would have to go something like 36-3 to end the season if we get to ~63 wins. Don't see it happening, especially with that many road games.

[Warlord23]

even if the mavs win in their last game with the spurs, the head to head will be tied and spurs own the next tie breaker which is i believe is the vs. conference record.

In this case, if the Spurs and Mavs tie head to head (2-2), the second tie breaker is the division record (as the Spurs and Mavs are in the same division).

The Spurs are currently 8-3 in the division with 5 games left (H = home, A = away):
DAL - 1 (0 H, 1 A)
MEM - 2 (0 H, 2 A)
HOU - 2 (0 H, 2 A)

That's 5 road games including 2 vs a bruising Memphis team.

The Mavs are 6-5 (2 games back) in the division with their 5 games being:
SAS - 1 (1 H, 0 A)
MEM - 1 (1 H, 0 A)
NOH - 2 (1 H, 1 A)
HOU - 1 (0 H, 1 A)

If the Mavs go 4-1 (a loss at either NO or HOU which is the back end of a B2B), the Spurs will have to go at least 2-3 in their 5 games. Doable, if they take care of business at Houston and maybe 1 of the 2 Memphis games (I'm assuming they lose at DAL, else this discussion is moot since SA will have a 3-1 H2H).

If that stays tied, the next tie breaker is conference record. The Spurs have played 36 games in the WC compared to 32 by the Mavs, but the Spurs only have 5 losses to the Mavs' 8 losses. I think this tie breaker is almost in the bag, given that SA plays 10 eminently winnable games (SAC, @SAC, PHO, @ PHO, GSW, @DEN, UTA, POR, @HOU X2). If they win 9 of those 10, they finish with a 40-12 WC record. That will leave the Mavs with a target of trying to win 16 of 20 vs the West with 11 of 20 being on the road.

Bottom line: it will take a perfect storm for the Mavs to catch us, barring injuries of course.

[Jimcs50]

If we go 0-23, then Dallas only needs to go 7-16