Playoff match-ups/Predictions as of today for Western Conference (March 7, 2011)

[TE]

(1) SAN ANTONIO (51-12) vs. (8) Memphis (35-29)

(2) DALLAS (45-17) vs. (7) Portland (35-27)

(3) LOS ANGELES (45-19) vs. (6) New Orleans (37-28)

(4) OKLAHOMA CITY (39-22) vs. (5) Denver (37-27)

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html

My analysis

Seeds 6-8
TBH, I'm inclined to believe Memphis will slide up get the sixth seed. They have 10 games left against playoff teams (1 game against tenth seeded Utah) in the remaining schedule with 5 of those being away. The chances of them moving up in the bracket is high if the Hornets start to slide (most likeliest of all hypotheticals due to CP3 being out) AND the Blazers begin to feel the wrath of their daunting schedule (13 games left against playoff opponents, 1 game against tenth seed Utah, with 7 of those being away games). The Hornets have 10 games left against playoff opponents with 4 being away games. The Hornets also have 5 games against opponents currently in the ninth, tenth, and eleven seeds (3 games against Phoenix, 1 games against Utah, and 1 game against Houston). Missing CP3 for a couple of games against quality opponents can cost them their seeding and appearance in the playoffs altogether.

Seeds 4-5
The fourth and fifth seeds (OKC and Denver) will not change. So that match-up in all likelihood should occur.

Seeds 1-3
The first, second, and third seeds are in a bit of uncertainty particularly with the second and third seeds. The Spurs, having a 5.5 game lead against the Mavs and a 6.5 game lead against the Lakers. The Mavs have 9 games remaining against playoff opponents with 4 being against the ninth, tenth, and eleventh seeds. 7 of these important games are away games. Pop knows the importance of HCA and will play to have it to finish the season, and for that reason I don't see the Spurs moving down to the second seed. The second seed Mavericks have 9 games against current playoff opponents, and 3 games against teams in the ninth, tenth, and eleventh seeds. 6 of these remaining tough games are away. The Lakers have 11 games left against current playoff teams, and 2 games against the ninth and tenth seeds. 4 of the remaining tough games are away. A stretch of three straight away games against playoff opponents is followed by a stretch of 6 straight home games. Whether there will be a flip between the second and third seed is in all honesty, a toss up. The Lakers have an advantage with the schedule with that 6 game homestand, that'll allow them to build up some sort of momentum which in all likelihood may propel them to overtake the second seed.

The best case scenario for the Spurs is they play the Hornets or any of the teams looking outside (Phoenix, Utah, Houston). The Grizzlies are a tough first round match up as we all have already witnessed this season. The Blazers are also a tough match up because of the match up problems there rotations create, oh and Lemarcus Aldridge also plays for them. The second round will be a lot tougher because either potential match up (vs OKC or Denver) will present tougher match-up problems. Now that OKC has acquired Perkins, and with the withstanding rotation of Westbrook and Durant the Thunder create havoc. The Denver Nuggets as of late have been playing very well. As a team, they push the ball and look for other people to score. Afflalo is a stud btw. If the Spurs are to make to the WCF, they would either face the Mavs (barring the Mavs don't choke in the first or second round) or the Lakers. I would rather the Spurs play the Mavs because of familiarity and because the match-up problems versus the Mavs are far less severe than the match-up problems versus the Lakers. Although, I do have to say, if the Spurs would win the championship, it would taste less sweeter because they would have avoided dethroning the champs.

My prediction:
First round
Spurs beat Hornets in 5
Lakers beat Blazers in 5
Mavs beat Grizzlies in 6
Thunder beat Nuggets in 7

Second round
Spurs beat Thunder in 6
Mavs beat Lakers in 7

WCF
Spurs beat Mavs in 7

:flag: :flag: :flag:
:lobt::lobt::lobt::lobt: .......... :lobt2:

[redzero]

You know that Paul's concussion isn't that serious, right? I doubt he stays out for long.

[jiggy_55]

If those were the matchups, I'd predict:

Spurs beat Hornets in 6
Lakers beat Blazers in 6
Mavs beat Grizzlies in 7
Thunder beat Nuggets in 5

[TE]

You know that Paul's concussion isn't that serious, right? I doubt he stays out for long.

If Paul comes back early, I still don't see the Hornets keeping that sixth seed. They have a ridiculous stretch of tough games coming up. Their play has been shaky as of late (4-6 last 10 games).
http://www.nba.com/hornets/schedule/

[TE]

If those were the matchups, I'd predict:

Spurs beat Hornets in 6
Lakers beat Blazers in 6
Mavs beat Grizzlies in 7
Thunder beat Nuggets in 5

It would be awesome if the Grizzlies got the Lakers in the first round and then the Mavs in the second round. That would be like running a 20K and carrying a 50 pound backpack all the while without water breaks.

[jiggy_55]

It would be awesome if the Grizzlies got the Lakers in the first round and then the Mavs in the second round. That would be like running a 20K and carrying a 50 pound backpack all the while without water breaks.

The Grizzlies will likely have to jump to 6th to get that series, or LA would have to take over 2nd, but it's quite possible. I don't think Memphis ends up 8th so I see them facing the Mavs or Lakers, a good scenario for us as long as it doesn't mean that Portland is 8th. Those are the 2 teams I don't want SA to get matched up with as both are more dangerous than NOR, DEN or even PHX and HOU.

[jiggy_55]

If Paul comes back early, I still don't see the Hornets keeping that sixth seed. They have a ridiculous stretch of tough games coming up. Their play has been shaky as of late (4-6 last 10 games).
http://www.nba.com/hornets/schedule/

CP3 is expected back in few days, he is missing tonight's game but might return for the next one. Theirs no serious injury.

[TE]

The Grizzlies will likely have to jump to 6th to get that series, or LA would have to take over 2nd, but it's quite possible. I don't think Memphis ends up 8th so I see them facing the Mavs or Lakers, a good scenario for us as long as it doesn't mean that Portland is 8th. Those are the 2 teams I don't want SA to get matched up with as both are more dangerous than NOR, DEN or even PHX and HOU.

The Grizzlies will jump to the sixth seed. They oddly play their best against the better teams of the league. I really want to see them play the Lakers. That would be an awesome series.