Key to Spurs playoff seeding: playoff-bound teams in away games

[spursfaninla]

If everything continues as it has, we obviously get the 1st seed into the playoffs.

However, instead of guessing or hoping how the Spurs will do in the final stretch, and trying to be objective here, it is probably more fruitful to project, from the Spurs performance against strong away teams, how they should do these final games.

From that, we can compare how Dallas, Boston, and LA are currently playing (WELL), and from that, you get what is the likely worst case scenario for how we enter the playoffs.

Currently, the Spurs are 5 up on Boston, 5.5 up on Dallas, and 7 up on LA. Spurs have 18 games left, with 10 of those against teams who would currently make the playoffs (designated with *). Of those 10 games, 7 are away. However, Houston, Utah, and Phx are just out of the playoffs, and we play all 3 of them.

Sac-Home
Hou-away
Miami*-Away
Dal*-Away
Char-home
GS-home
Den*-away
Port*-away
mem*-away
Port*-home
Bos*-home
Hou-away
phx-home
atl*-away
uta-home
LA*-away
Phx-away

First, at the edge of the realm of possibility, if the Spurs go 15-3, a very stout 83% win rate, and end with a 67 win record, Boston can't catch up because they could run the table and win 66; Dallas could win 64 if they go 17-0, so the Spurs only need to go 13-5, finishing with 72% wins, to make it impossible for them to catch up. LA can only win 62 games, requiring us to go 11-7 to take 63 games.

Now, although Dallas has been playing ridiculously well, and could end losing only a few games, I doubt Boston, Dallas, or LA run the table. Instead, if they play as they have, they will win about 80% of their last games, and they finish like this:

Boston: 16-4, 62 wins
Dallas: 14-3, 61 wins
LA: 13-3, 59 wins

Our current record in home games is 30-3, which is a win % of over 90%. Our win percentage against away teams is 22-9, which is a win % just under 71%. However, our away schedule is particularly brutal, and so we should not expect to play that well against such a strong schedule.

Looking at our past performance in away games, we have won 6 away games against playoff-bound teams (Oak, NO, Den, DAl, Ind, LA, in order of dates), and lost 8 (Orlando, NY, Bos, No, Port, Phi, Ci, mem).

That is a 42% win percentage. If we win that much in our 7 similarly strong away games, we win 2.9, about 3. Assuming we win our 3 easier away games, and win at least 80% of the rest of the home games (under performing from our past), that comes to 6 away and about 6.4 home wins, for about 12 wins. So, we should go 12-6, for a 64 win season, or 13-5 for 65 wins.

Hmm, that is about the projection that Hollinger has been giving, too.

Anyway, if this projection is probable, which I think it is, we will be sweating it the last few games of the season if Boston or Dallas put together strong ends of the season, Which definitely Dallas will and Boston should. Our current cushion of 5 games on our closest opponent and 5.5 cushion in the west will be significantly smaller.

As a side note: Boston has a current record of 9-4 in away games against playoff teams (69%), and Dallas is 11-7 (61%). Boston has 8 away playoff games, and Dallas has 3.

[TampaDude]

Spurs just gotta TCB, and they'll be #1 seed.

[Warlord23]

Here's how I see it finishing.

Home games:
6 easy ones (SAC X2, CHA, GSW, PHO, UTA): 6-0
2 tough ones (POR, BOS): 1-1

Away games:
5 tough ones (LAL, DAL, POR, MIA, DEN): 2-3
5 medium ones (HOU X2, MEM, PHO, ATL): 3-2

Total: 12-6, which would give us a season record of 64-18. Every team aside from Boston already has 18 losses. Boston has 16 losses, and has 9 away games against .500 or better opponents, including SA, MIA, CHI, NY X 2. They also have 6 back to backs.

Barring a massive let-down, Spurs will likely have HCA throughout. Anyway this should be the least of our concerns. The key is whether Pop will be able to counter what the Lakers showed us last week.

[ChuckD]

Here's how I see it, W23.

Home games (same as you):
6 easy ones (SAC X2, CHA, GSW, PHO, UTA): 6-0
2 tough ones (POR, BOS): 1-1

Away games:
4 tough ones (LAL, DAL, POR, MIA): 2-2
6 medium ones (HOU X2, MEM, PHO, ATL, DEN): 5-1

[Warlord23]

Right on cue, Boston loses to Philly. They have 17 losses now, and still have a ton of tough games.

[spursfaninla]

Boston is not the concern for Home Court. It is Dallas. They have a MUCH easier rest of the way. Only 3 tough games, really. They could literally go 17-0; I would not be surprised to see 15-2 or 16-1 very easily.

[spursfaninla]

Here's how I see it, W23.

Home games (same as you):
6 easy ones (SAC X2, CHA, GSW, PHO, UTA): 6-0
2 tough ones (POR, BOS): 1-1

Away games:
4 tough ones (LAL, DAL, POR, MIA): 2-2
6 medium ones (HOU X2, MEM, PHO, ATL, DEN): 5-1

Spurs have a 42% win percentage against playoff teams away. What makes you think they will go 4-3 instead (not counting houston and phx games)?

Sounds like a small difference, but you are projecting something like a 70% win percentage instead of 40% in playoff away games; arguably, the Spurs were playing better earlier in the year as well.

[ChuckD]

Spurs have a 42% win percentage against playoff teams away. What makes you think they will go 4-3 instead (not counting houston and phx games)?

Sounds like a small difference, but you are projecting something like a 70% win percentage instead of 40% in playoff away games; arguably, the Spurs were playing better earlier in the year as well.

It's the stretch run. SPAM.