Rummpd
03-17-2011, 05:00 AM
Interesting read: Adjusting for injuries to stars Spurs still have had best success from ESPN Insider on article that also shows how strong Mavs are with Dirk:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=haberstroh_tom&id=6223961
Mavs better than record suggestsWith superstar Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas is a completely different team
At 47-20, the Dallas Mavericks own the third best record in the West. But as impressive as that record may be, they're even better than that.
To see why, let's rewind back to late December when the Mavericks were rolling through league. Heading into their Dec. 27 matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Mavericks had won 12 of their previous 13 games and were toe-to-toe with the San Antonio Spurs for the league's best record. For the Mavericks, all was going smoothly against Kevin Durant and the Thunder until the 9:10 mark in the second quarter, when Dirk Nowitzki tweaked his knee. He left the court and the Mavericks were forced to endure the rest of the game without their star player.
The Mavericks won that game. But they lost many more thereafter with Nowitzki sitting on the end of the bench. All told, Dallas proceeded to drop seven of their next nine games without their German All-Star. The Mavericks are a different team when they don't have Nowitzki, and that rough patch only confirmed that notion.
So when we look at their record now, take a moment to think about what it tells us. We use win-loss records as a tidy form of accounting, but often times we fully rely on them as a barometer of team quality. The case of the Mavericks demonstrates why that becomes a dangerous game.
Injuries are the great variable in sports. We can't predict them with any good deal of certainty, but they happen. And when they do, they can have enormous effects on a team's record. In turn, they control our perception of that team. For the Mavericks, we find that the injury to Nowitzki was especially devastating, but it also means that we may be underrating them too. In fact, Dallas is 45-12 (.790) when Nowitkzi plays and 2-7 (.222) when he does not.
Full Strength Impact Ratings
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Mavs w/Dirk 45 13 .776 109.5 103.7 5.7 +12.2
Mavs w/o Dirk 2 7 .222 101.2 107.7 -6.5
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Spurs w/Parker 53 12 .815 109.2 102.3 6.9 +10.1 Spurs w/o Parker 1 1 .500 106.9 110.1 -3.2
Lakers w/Bynum 30 13 .698 108.3 102.0 6.2 -1.9
Lakers w/o Bynum 18 7 .720 110.2 102.1 8.1
Heat w/Big 3 44 17 .721 109.2 100.9 8.4 +7.7
Heat w/1 of Big 3 2 4 .333 104.9 104.2 0.7
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Magic w/Howard 41 23 .641 106.5 100.4 6.1 +6.9
Magic w/o Howard 1 2 .333 103.4 104.2 -0.8
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Thunder w/Durant 40 22 .645 109.0 105.5 3.5 +4.3
Thunder w/o Durant 3 1 .750 98.7 99.5 -0.8
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Celtics w/Big 4 34 12 .739 105.1 98.1 7.0 +0.1
Celtics w/o Big 4 13 6 .684 105.0 98.1 6.9
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Bulls w/Big 3 14 4 .778 103.1 96.3 6.8 -0.6
Bulls w/o Big 3 34 14 .708 105.4 98.0 7.4
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
But the Mavericks aren't the only ones to suffer an injury to one of their star players. It happens to the best of teams: The Chicago Bulls played without Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer for long stretches this season; the Boston Celtics have sustained injuries to Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo; and the Miami Heat have persisted through some bumps and bruises as well.
Here we see that, when we ignore the Nowitzki injury, the Mavericks have enjoyed far more success in the win column than the Los Angeles Lakers, who are in a dead heat for the West's No. 2 seed. In games without Nowitzki, the Mavericks have been outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possessions, which means the Mavericks have seen a 12.4 point swing depending on the status of their star player. That's an incredibly wide gap that is unparalleled by any of the teams on this list.
For the Orlando Magic, Spurs, Thunder and the Heat, the injury bug hasn't quite plagued their stars like the other teams. We don't want to make too much out of a handful of games, but Miami suffers tremendously without their trio intact. For all the fireworks in the preseason, what we can tell is that the Heat lack the depth behind the Big Three to weather the storm in case of injury.
The Bulls, however, have been able to maintain their elite status even when one of their bigs is sidelined. Credit both Derrick Rose for his MVP-candidate season and head coach Tom Thibodeau for his choreography on the bench. Expect the Bulls to show some patience with Boozer as he recovers from his ankle injury. The Bulls' breezy schedule down the stretch will only help them hold down the fort as he heals.
But what's also interesting is that the Lakers have not been demonstrably better off with Bynum healthy. This is something that could change (and strength of schedule plays a part here as well), but it also speaks to Lamar Odom's effectiveness when he steps into the starting five. The Lakers offense scores 110.2 points per 100 possessions without Bynum, which would be tops for the league, and the team owns a better winning percentage and point differential in the 25 games with their young big man sidelined. In a seven-game playoff series, they'll want Bynum healthy, but they're more than capable of winning without him.
As we approach the home stretch of the regular season, teams who have locked up playoff spots will try to rest their stars and keep them healthy for the big show. As we've seen with the Mavericks and the Heat, some teams don't possess the necessary depth to sustain an injury to their All-Star, should one go down come playoff time. The Thunder and Magic have been fortunate to not lose their franchise player for long stretches this season, and it's safe to say an injury to Durant or Howard would be a crushing blow.
But the Lakers, Bulls and Celtics demonstrate the power of depth and structure. Each of these teams has experienced its share of injuries to key parts (Lakers only with Bynum) but they've been able to absorb them extremely well. This bodes well for their respective playoff runs should a player blow a flat tire at the finish line.
Looking at the winning percentages of teams at full power, however, no one can match the Spurs. The Mavericks and Bulls come close, but San Antonio have plowed through the NBA with their extraordinarily clean bill of health this season. All things equal, the Spurs still have the upper hand.
Tom Haberstroh covers the NBA for ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine. He is also writing about the Miami Heat this season for the ESPN.com Heat Index and contributes to Insider's college basketball, college football and baseball coverage. He contributes to ESPN The Magazine and ESPNNewYork.com and previously worked as a consultant for ESPN Stats and Information and as an analyst for Hoopdata.com. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
[Bynum certainly makes LAL better but his value may be more in providing real depth up front. With him healthy, LAL will almost always have at least 2 of Odom, Gasol and Bynum on the floor at a time making them an improved team Also, Bynum's stats and probably the team performance were also negatively skewed by his time and team adjustment recovering from his injury, which is why Pop needs to continue to adjust the "bigs" rotation as he started to do with Dice inserted into the starting lineup, so "*&% it Pop - it is time to free Splitter")]
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=haberstroh_tom&id=6223961
Mavs better than record suggestsWith superstar Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas is a completely different team
At 47-20, the Dallas Mavericks own the third best record in the West. But as impressive as that record may be, they're even better than that.
To see why, let's rewind back to late December when the Mavericks were rolling through league. Heading into their Dec. 27 matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Mavericks had won 12 of their previous 13 games and were toe-to-toe with the San Antonio Spurs for the league's best record. For the Mavericks, all was going smoothly against Kevin Durant and the Thunder until the 9:10 mark in the second quarter, when Dirk Nowitzki tweaked his knee. He left the court and the Mavericks were forced to endure the rest of the game without their star player.
The Mavericks won that game. But they lost many more thereafter with Nowitzki sitting on the end of the bench. All told, Dallas proceeded to drop seven of their next nine games without their German All-Star. The Mavericks are a different team when they don't have Nowitzki, and that rough patch only confirmed that notion.
So when we look at their record now, take a moment to think about what it tells us. We use win-loss records as a tidy form of accounting, but often times we fully rely on them as a barometer of team quality. The case of the Mavericks demonstrates why that becomes a dangerous game.
Injuries are the great variable in sports. We can't predict them with any good deal of certainty, but they happen. And when they do, they can have enormous effects on a team's record. In turn, they control our perception of that team. For the Mavericks, we find that the injury to Nowitzki was especially devastating, but it also means that we may be underrating them too. In fact, Dallas is 45-12 (.790) when Nowitkzi plays and 2-7 (.222) when he does not.
Full Strength Impact Ratings
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Mavs w/Dirk 45 13 .776 109.5 103.7 5.7 +12.2
Mavs w/o Dirk 2 7 .222 101.2 107.7 -6.5
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Spurs w/Parker 53 12 .815 109.2 102.3 6.9 +10.1 Spurs w/o Parker 1 1 .500 106.9 110.1 -3.2
Lakers w/Bynum 30 13 .698 108.3 102.0 6.2 -1.9
Lakers w/o Bynum 18 7 .720 110.2 102.1 8.1
Heat w/Big 3 44 17 .721 109.2 100.9 8.4 +7.7
Heat w/1 of Big 3 2 4 .333 104.9 104.2 0.7
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Magic w/Howard 41 23 .641 106.5 100.4 6.1 +6.9
Magic w/o Howard 1 2 .333 103.4 104.2 -0.8
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Thunder w/Durant 40 22 .645 109.0 105.5 3.5 +4.3
Thunder w/o Durant 3 1 .750 98.7 99.5 -0.8
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Celtics w/Big 4 34 12 .739 105.1 98.1 7.0 +0.1
Celtics w/o Big 4 13 6 .684 105.0 98.1 6.9
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
Bulls w/Big 3 14 4 .778 103.1 96.3 6.8 -0.6
Bulls w/o Big 3 34 14 .708 105.4 98.0 7.4
W L Wpct Off Def Diff Change
But the Mavericks aren't the only ones to suffer an injury to one of their star players. It happens to the best of teams: The Chicago Bulls played without Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer for long stretches this season; the Boston Celtics have sustained injuries to Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo; and the Miami Heat have persisted through some bumps and bruises as well.
Here we see that, when we ignore the Nowitzki injury, the Mavericks have enjoyed far more success in the win column than the Los Angeles Lakers, who are in a dead heat for the West's No. 2 seed. In games without Nowitzki, the Mavericks have been outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possessions, which means the Mavericks have seen a 12.4 point swing depending on the status of their star player. That's an incredibly wide gap that is unparalleled by any of the teams on this list.
For the Orlando Magic, Spurs, Thunder and the Heat, the injury bug hasn't quite plagued their stars like the other teams. We don't want to make too much out of a handful of games, but Miami suffers tremendously without their trio intact. For all the fireworks in the preseason, what we can tell is that the Heat lack the depth behind the Big Three to weather the storm in case of injury.
The Bulls, however, have been able to maintain their elite status even when one of their bigs is sidelined. Credit both Derrick Rose for his MVP-candidate season and head coach Tom Thibodeau for his choreography on the bench. Expect the Bulls to show some patience with Boozer as he recovers from his ankle injury. The Bulls' breezy schedule down the stretch will only help them hold down the fort as he heals.
But what's also interesting is that the Lakers have not been demonstrably better off with Bynum healthy. This is something that could change (and strength of schedule plays a part here as well), but it also speaks to Lamar Odom's effectiveness when he steps into the starting five. The Lakers offense scores 110.2 points per 100 possessions without Bynum, which would be tops for the league, and the team owns a better winning percentage and point differential in the 25 games with their young big man sidelined. In a seven-game playoff series, they'll want Bynum healthy, but they're more than capable of winning without him.
As we approach the home stretch of the regular season, teams who have locked up playoff spots will try to rest their stars and keep them healthy for the big show. As we've seen with the Mavericks and the Heat, some teams don't possess the necessary depth to sustain an injury to their All-Star, should one go down come playoff time. The Thunder and Magic have been fortunate to not lose their franchise player for long stretches this season, and it's safe to say an injury to Durant or Howard would be a crushing blow.
But the Lakers, Bulls and Celtics demonstrate the power of depth and structure. Each of these teams has experienced its share of injuries to key parts (Lakers only with Bynum) but they've been able to absorb them extremely well. This bodes well for their respective playoff runs should a player blow a flat tire at the finish line.
Looking at the winning percentages of teams at full power, however, no one can match the Spurs. The Mavericks and Bulls come close, but San Antonio have plowed through the NBA with their extraordinarily clean bill of health this season. All things equal, the Spurs still have the upper hand.
Tom Haberstroh covers the NBA for ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine. He is also writing about the Miami Heat this season for the ESPN.com Heat Index and contributes to Insider's college basketball, college football and baseball coverage. He contributes to ESPN The Magazine and ESPNNewYork.com and previously worked as a consultant for ESPN Stats and Information and as an analyst for Hoopdata.com. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
[Bynum certainly makes LAL better but his value may be more in providing real depth up front. With him healthy, LAL will almost always have at least 2 of Odom, Gasol and Bynum on the floor at a time making them an improved team Also, Bynum's stats and probably the team performance were also negatively skewed by his time and team adjustment recovering from his injury, which is why Pop needs to continue to adjust the "bigs" rotation as he started to do with Dice inserted into the starting lineup, so "*&% it Pop - it is time to free Splitter")]