CubanMustGo
03-22-2011, 03:29 PM
Tony Parker really said the only important thing to be said (http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2011/03/21/spurs-beat-warriors-lose-duncan/) about Tim Duncan’s nasty-looking ankle sprain that, according to San Antonio’s broadcast team, will sideline him for a couple of weeks: The Spurs have zero chance of winning the title without Duncan, and if the injury somehow becomes serious enough to actually limit him or keep him out for the playoffs, the Thunder would suddenly look pretty good sitting in that No. 4 slot in a potential second-round matchup with San Antonio.
What else is there to say, really? There’s no “race” for the top seed to worry about, no key stretch of the schedule left. There is the postseason and nothing else for San Antonio.
Duncan is the main (and possibly only) thing standing between the Spurs and defensive mediocrity. He is the team’s sole reliable rim protector, and the Spurs have quietly allowed a whopping six more points per 100 possessions with Duncan on the bench this season, according to Basketball Value (http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2010-2011&team=SAS). For the 28 minutes Duncan is on the floor every game, the Spurs defend only a smidgen worse than Boston and Chicago — and that difference vanishes once you factor in how much more potent Western Conference offenses are than their counterparts in the East. With Duncan on the bench, San Antonio defends like a league-average team.
The Spurs have been among the league’s top 10 defenses all season. But the D hasn’t been as good as their typical mid-2000s defense, and it has been the weaker half of the Spurs’ team. The idea was that playing Duncan heavier minutes would make the defense playoff-stingy again. If the Spurs can’t play Duncan heavy minutes, you can’t consider them the favorites in the Western Conference. And if they can’t play Duncan at all, they will not be much of a factor.
This is obvious, I realize, but that’s the only real story here: A title contender’s hopes hinge on the health of one of its three core players and its only elite interior defender. The Spurs were already concerned enough about defense to shift DeJuan Blair out of the starting lineup in favor of Antonio McDyess, who adds size and mid-range shooting without sacrificing any defensive rebounding. But McDyess is not a guy you can play 35 minutes a game at this point.
The doom-and-gloom talk is probably unwarranted, anyway. Early estimates have Duncan out a few weeks, and however long he’s out, you can bet it will be bit longer than would be the case if the Spurs were at the other end of the playoff standings. So let’s all cross our fingers for a quick recovery and full health for the postseason. Because the postseason needs a healthy Spurs team to reach its peak entertainment potential.
A few other bullet points on Duncan’s injury:
• The injury comes right as the Spurs are scheduled to play just about every West team jostling for playoff seeding and/or the conference’s final playoff spot. They play in Denver (currently fifth at 42-29) on Wednesday before heading to Portland (sixth, at 40-30) on Friday and then Memphis (eighth, at 39-22) on Sunday. The next day? A home game against the Blazers, who might end up the only postseason contender fortunate enough to get two Duncan-less games out of this.
If Duncan is still out at the beginning of April, he could miss consecutive games against Phoenix and Houston, the two teams just behind Memphis in the race for the eighth spot.
In other words, the Duncan Effect generally evens out, save for perhaps the seventh-place Hornets, who get nothing out of this and have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way.
• Now is the chance for Tiago Splitter to earn postseason minutes. He has played a bit more in March, but he has not been able to earn consistent minutes and or give the Spurs quite what they were hoping for — a second true big man to ease the burden on Duncan.
• Now might also mark the chance for us to get to see even more unabashed small ball from Gregg Popovich. The Spurs are at their smallest when they go with three guards and Richard Jefferson at power forward, but any three-guard set with Steve Novak or Matt Bonner at power forward is going to play very small — especially if Blair is the center. Popovich loves to spread the floor this way, and we could see him go smaller for longer stretches without Duncan.
• Do people realize how wonderfully Parker has played over the last two weeks or so? The guy looks as fast as ever and is absolutely rounding into playoff shape. In the last eight games, Parker is averaging 20.3 points per game on 54 percent shooting and nearly 16 shots per game — about 2.5 more per game than his season average. The one-man fast break is in full effect, and he is shredding every defense he faces.
What else is there to say, really? There’s no “race” for the top seed to worry about, no key stretch of the schedule left. There is the postseason and nothing else for San Antonio.
Duncan is the main (and possibly only) thing standing between the Spurs and defensive mediocrity. He is the team’s sole reliable rim protector, and the Spurs have quietly allowed a whopping six more points per 100 possessions with Duncan on the bench this season, according to Basketball Value (http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2010-2011&team=SAS). For the 28 minutes Duncan is on the floor every game, the Spurs defend only a smidgen worse than Boston and Chicago — and that difference vanishes once you factor in how much more potent Western Conference offenses are than their counterparts in the East. With Duncan on the bench, San Antonio defends like a league-average team.
The Spurs have been among the league’s top 10 defenses all season. But the D hasn’t been as good as their typical mid-2000s defense, and it has been the weaker half of the Spurs’ team. The idea was that playing Duncan heavier minutes would make the defense playoff-stingy again. If the Spurs can’t play Duncan heavy minutes, you can’t consider them the favorites in the Western Conference. And if they can’t play Duncan at all, they will not be much of a factor.
This is obvious, I realize, but that’s the only real story here: A title contender’s hopes hinge on the health of one of its three core players and its only elite interior defender. The Spurs were already concerned enough about defense to shift DeJuan Blair out of the starting lineup in favor of Antonio McDyess, who adds size and mid-range shooting without sacrificing any defensive rebounding. But McDyess is not a guy you can play 35 minutes a game at this point.
The doom-and-gloom talk is probably unwarranted, anyway. Early estimates have Duncan out a few weeks, and however long he’s out, you can bet it will be bit longer than would be the case if the Spurs were at the other end of the playoff standings. So let’s all cross our fingers for a quick recovery and full health for the postseason. Because the postseason needs a healthy Spurs team to reach its peak entertainment potential.
A few other bullet points on Duncan’s injury:
• The injury comes right as the Spurs are scheduled to play just about every West team jostling for playoff seeding and/or the conference’s final playoff spot. They play in Denver (currently fifth at 42-29) on Wednesday before heading to Portland (sixth, at 40-30) on Friday and then Memphis (eighth, at 39-22) on Sunday. The next day? A home game against the Blazers, who might end up the only postseason contender fortunate enough to get two Duncan-less games out of this.
If Duncan is still out at the beginning of April, he could miss consecutive games against Phoenix and Houston, the two teams just behind Memphis in the race for the eighth spot.
In other words, the Duncan Effect generally evens out, save for perhaps the seventh-place Hornets, who get nothing out of this and have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way.
• Now is the chance for Tiago Splitter to earn postseason minutes. He has played a bit more in March, but he has not been able to earn consistent minutes and or give the Spurs quite what they were hoping for — a second true big man to ease the burden on Duncan.
• Now might also mark the chance for us to get to see even more unabashed small ball from Gregg Popovich. The Spurs are at their smallest when they go with three guards and Richard Jefferson at power forward, but any three-guard set with Steve Novak or Matt Bonner at power forward is going to play very small — especially if Blair is the center. Popovich loves to spread the floor this way, and we could see him go smaller for longer stretches without Duncan.
• Do people realize how wonderfully Parker has played over the last two weeks or so? The guy looks as fast as ever and is absolutely rounding into playoff shape. In the last eight games, Parker is averaging 20.3 points per game on 54 percent shooting and nearly 16 shots per game — about 2.5 more per game than his season average. The one-man fast break is in full effect, and he is shredding every defense he faces.