How bad is this draft class gonna end up?

[Kyle Orton]

Last night, Sullinger declared he's for sure coming back to OSU.

Kyrie Irving from day 1 has said he wants to be at Duke for at least two years to learn from coach K. I doubt an injury plagued freshman season that ended with disappointment changes that.

Everyone close to Derrick Williams says he wants to stay at UA as long as it takes to win a championship. I personally still think he's as good as gone, but he does love school and knows that Arizona has a way better team than even this year if he sticks around. There's an outside shot he stays.

It was weak as it is, but if these 3 guys all stay in school (maybe the top 3 prospects going into the draft), it could be historically bad. Harrison Barnes would be the consensus #1 pick in spite of how inconsistent he's looked this year (that is, assuming he doesn't stay in school). After him, the next best prospects are guys like Enes Kanter and Perry Jones who did absolutely nothing in college but would be drafted merely based off athleticism and potential.

[Riddler]

BAD, I'm talking any movie that Matt Damon is in BADDDD

[Kyle Orton]

:lmao

[JoeTait75]

Sullinger isn't ready for the NBA anyway, IMO.

I think Derrick Williams alone coming out- if he comes out- makes this draft better than some of the historical stinkers like 2000.

[Kyle Orton]

Sullinger is sure as hell more ready for the NBA than Perry Jones, Harrison Barnes or Terrence Jones.

I know you and I agree on how weak of a coach Matta is, but honest question, is it Matta as a recruiter who gets guys like Sullinger, Turner, Oden and Conley, or is it more the fact they all grew up in Ohio or close to Ohio and saw how rabid the Buckeye fan base is and how much of a spotlight playing there is?

[JamStone]

Sullinger may reconsider when he finds out he's pretty much a lock to go in the top 5. Greg Monroe said the same thing last year when Georgetown got ousted from the tourney and then later changed his mind. Kids are usually emotional after a big loss.

But to add to the names mentioned, I read something about Harrison Barnes saying he's going to stay unless UNC wins it all this year so he may not be in the draft class either.

This draft class could rival 2000. It could be epically bad.

[JoeTait75]

I know you and I agree on how weak of a coach Matta is, but honest question, is it Matta as a recruiter who gets guys like Sullinger, Turner, Oden and Conley, or is it more the fact they all grew up in Ohio or close to Ohio and saw how rabid the Buckeye fan base is and how much of a spotlight playing there is?

I give more credit to Matta for getting those guys. Ohio State had a decade-long stretch before he got there where they really weren't very good (other than the 1999 Final Four run, and that was a total fluke.) Huggy Bear's Cincinnati teams were well ahead of them in their own state for most of the '90s and the first half of the '00s. Xavier, even some MAC teams in given years were better than them.

So Matta can recruit. But Indiana being a mess doesn't hurt. Oden and Conley would have been Hoosiers back in the day.

BTW, everyone says they're staying this time of year. Some of them will be saying different things in April and May.

[Kai]

Well fuck if the top of the lottery is gonna suck, I don't even want to think about picks 11-16ish

[Kyle Orton]

I think it'll be a crap shoot. The top 10 picks won't be typical top 10 picks, and the 11-16 picks won't be much worse.

[Axe Murderer]

Perry Jones is gonna be a stud

[JamStone]

Just like most drafts, there will be a couple of good players, maybe even all stars in this class. It just lacks any sure-fire all star caliber player that you just know will be good. Irving and Derrick Williams might be the closest to that type of talent, and neither is guaranteed to enter this draft. But when there are no sure fire stars at the top of the lottery, it's even more of a crap shoot than most drafts. The best players from this draft might end up being kids drafted in the #15-25 range as opposed to the top of the lottery.

Guys like Terrence Jones, Harrison Barnes, and Perry Jones have all the physical tools and gifts to be stars but none are guaranteed to be stars. Could just as easily end up being like Rodney White, DerMarr Johnson, and Jared Jeffries.

Teams in the mid to late first round and not in the lottery might be better off in this draft. They might not get superstars but there's a good chance to find quality players who are ready to play almost immediately. I think guys like Chris Singleton, JaJuan Johnson, and Justin Harper will likely end up being great value picks later in the first round and have a good chance to be quality players at the next level.

[JamStone]

Perry Jones is gonna be a stud

Has all the physical tools. But I question why a kid that big and that athletic and explosive didn't dominate more at the college level. Now scoring wise, I give him a little break because he played with a blackhole in Dunn. But he was second on his team in rebounding to that Acy kid, who averaged fewer minutes than him. Jones only had double digit rebounds in 4 games out of 30 this season. Averaged under a block a game. He played nearly 34 minutes a game. I'm left to wonder why he didn't dominate more.

I think there's a chance that there are motivation and work ethic issues, but that's just a guess. In a conference that has seen NBA talent dominate in the likes of Durant and Beasley even as freshmen, Perry Jones did not wow nearly as much. His talent and potential are undeniable. But there's something that leaves you questioning how he will translate to the NBA.

[Kyle Orton]

I don't see Perry Jones being any different than hybrid-forward guys like Brandon Wright, Aminu, Daye, or Anthony Randolph who are extremely talented but were mediocre in college and don't have any work ethic.

[baseline bum]

Irving and Williams would be nuts to return, with their stock what it is. It has nowhere to go but down, especially considering the strength of next year's freshman class. No team in their right mind is going to take Jones, Kanter, Valaciunas, or Barnes ahead of those two. Then again, maybe Khan would.

[Greg Oden]

Irving's stock can only go down after coming off his freshman year where he misses most of the season and his team gets embarrassed in the tournament? He's not falling out of the top 3-5 by staying another year and dominating, tbh.

[John Basedow]

Irving most definitely needs to return...He's only played a handful of college games, he's coming off an injury, and he's still raw. The guy played around 15 games...he's not ready for 82 NBA games just yet

[JamStone]

Irving's stock can only go down after coming off his freshman year where he misses most of the season and his team gets embarrassed in the tournament? He's not falling out of the top 3-5 by staying another year and dominating, tbh.

Draft stock can be very fragile. Guys like Ron Steele out of Alabama a few years ago and Daniel Gibson early on in their college careers were considered lottery picks. Not just first round picks, but lottery picks. Steele wasn't drafted (he did get hurt though) and Gibson ended up being a second round pick I believe when he declared. Look at a guy like Larry Drew who regressed after his freshman year and ended up losing minutes at UNC and decided to leave the team. Now he wasn't regarded as a lottery pick but it just shows you that nothing is guaranteed.

Irving does appear to be the type of elite talent you wouldn't expect to drop off but it could happen. And especially on a team like Duke that collects top talent year after year. What happens if Austin Rivers outplays Irving, earns the PG job and Irving loses confidence? Irving right now is almost guaranteed as you suggest to be a top 3-5 pick in this year's draft. If he dominates again next year, sure he'll still be a top pick. But that's assuming he does. What happens if he gets injured again? Will he get labeled injury prone and will that affect his draft stock?

I'm not opposed to him returning to school if that's what he really wants to do. But you can't guarantee he'll remain a top draft prospect by staying.

[Kyle Orton]

Austin Rivers is a shooting guard tbh. Duke is getting a 5 star PG tho in Quinn Cook but I don't see him winning any PT over Irving.

[baseline bum]

Austin Rivers is a shooting guard tbh. Duke is getting a 5 star PG tho in Quinn Cook but I don't see him winning any PT over Irving.

I hope they give Rivers a chance to get lots of time at the point, as the odds are pretty stacked against 6'4" shooting guards in the NBA.

[Kyle Orton]

I don't see it happening if they have Irving and Cook eating up all the minutes at PG next year.

[Hornets1]

Well fuck if the top of the lottery is gonna suck, I don't even want to think about picks 11-16ish

Sucks even worse for most of the worse part of the lottery class thats hoping for a team changer outside the top few picks

[mingus]

i think Sullinger leaves and i think he's going to be an absolute stud in the NBA. his game is going to translate very well to the NBA for the most part.

[baseline bum]

Wow, now Williams giving hints he's returning? This draft is looking to be about 1-deep now. :lol

I feel bad for the Cavs with their two high lottery picks and only one top prospect (Irving) who looks to be a really strong bet to declare. Normally you'd think they could go after an upside guy like Jones, Motiejunas, Kanter, etc. with that Clippers pick, but wow... those guys could be top 5 now.

[baseline bum]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Brandon Knight stay put for another two years to graduate too. Besides, he could log some huge assist numbers next to Davis and Gilchrist and really elevate his draft stock.

[jay_shs]

1/10

worse than the Kwame class, at least you had Pau Gasol, Tony Parker and Andrei Kirilenko there

[baseline bum]

1/10

worse than the Kwame class, at least you had Pau Gasol, Tony Parker and Andrei Kirilenko there

The Kwame class was hyped beyond belief to be a really strong draft class. Curry was the next Shaq, Chandler the next Garnett, Kwame was supposed to be both of them, and Vescey even had the Spurs trying to trade DRob for the rights to Eddie Griffin. There were still lots of really good players in that draft aside from Gasol and Parker though: Joe Johnson, Gilbert Arenas (pre-injury), JRich, Zach Randolph, and Gerald Wallace for example.

[admiralsnackbar]

i think Sullinger leaves and i think he's going to be an absolute stud in the NBA. his game is going to translate very well to the NBA for the most part.

"I'm a man of my word. Period. Point blank."

--J. Sullinger


I'm not saying you or JamStone are wrong about the kid reconsidering, but by saying the above, he didn't make it easy on himself if he backs out of his commitment.