Rummpd
04-04-2011, 08:47 AM
An AP article today discusses the SAS breaking the first 6 game of Duncan's career but fails (as expected) to mention that:
http://www.statesman.com/sports/pro/nba-roundup-spurs-at-long-last-break-their-1372463.html
1) He missed 4 games and Parker, Manu, Dice missed a game that would have been winnable and Spurs had a lead or were close in every 4th quarter (with the possible exception of Boston and that was not a blowout, and Spurs would have won or made that game very competitive, IMO if Popovich was using a true playoff lineup).
2) Spurs lost several games right near the end, that were primarily due to Spurs errors but they also faced hot teams and of course, no one mentioned some questionable calls when the Spurs were involved (or questionable lineups).
3) Every team the Spurs played was either in the playoffs or working to get in or fighting for seeding.
4) There is a silver lining potentially as there are at least flashes of seeing brilliant play by Hill and shooters like Neal and Bonner currently had horrible streaks. Meanwhile, Manu, who was the most clutch player in the NBA over a 5 year period per NBA.com was uncharactistically not clutch, probably out of sheer exhaustion. Parker has been at times brilliant but also made some key errors and he may still be recovering from his injury a little but THERE IS NO TEAM WITH THREE BETTER GUARDS GOING INTO THE PLAYOFFS (or 4 if you can get a hot and assertive Neal going as well)
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/john_schuhmann/11/05/clutch.numbersgame/index.html
Bonner is what he is but if is hitting shots can be on the floor 15-25 minutes a game (which I expect he will be in the playoffs) as long as it is not soley with Blair IMO against most lineups.
5) Splitter is at least not riding the bench all games right now and provides some needed size that Pop can and may actually turn to on some occassions in the playoffs.
The sky is not falling, the team is still a solid team, has a 2 /1/2 game lead thanks to the gutty and under-rated Nuggets; and I (and seemingly others) perhaps over-reacted to Pop's stubborness, the teams poor play by the big three and/or untested reserves at the end, but perhaps this was also a natural "regression to the mean*" effect that in the end a 60-63 win season is still damm good and sets the Spurs in good stead, if healthy for the playoffs.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15333621 Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. .
[I]Outlook
The Spurs' gangbusters performance over the final two months of the 2009-10 regular season confirmed they still have something left in the tank, and they should have enough help from the cavalry this season to build on last season's performance. Between a likely uptick in output from a healthier Parker, the continued development of Hill and Blair and the additions of Splitter and Anderson, San Antonio has a lot of rotation spots that appear to be major upgrades.
As a result, it should be more than able to offset any moderate declines from Duncan and Ginobili this season. I emphasize "moderate," because if one of them collapses, San Antonio's title hopes are toast. But the Spurs have managed those players' minutes so well that one has to think they can age fairly gracefully.
Additionally, we can count on the Spurs' front office to make the right moves in-season as needs arise. San Antonio has won at least 50 games for 11 straight seasons; if you prorate the 1998-99 lockout year, the streak is at 13. That run appears to have at least one more year in it. While I don't see the Spurs as championship favorites, let's not write them off as contenders just yet.
Prediction: 54-28, 1st in Southwest Division, 3rd in Western Conference http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp10/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=SpursForecast1011
(None of ESPN writters predicted the Spurs to win the title by the way and will not still but Spurs still have a legit shot: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-NBAchamps)
http://www.statesman.com/sports/pro/nba-roundup-spurs-at-long-last-break-their-1372463.html
1) He missed 4 games and Parker, Manu, Dice missed a game that would have been winnable and Spurs had a lead or were close in every 4th quarter (with the possible exception of Boston and that was not a blowout, and Spurs would have won or made that game very competitive, IMO if Popovich was using a true playoff lineup).
2) Spurs lost several games right near the end, that were primarily due to Spurs errors but they also faced hot teams and of course, no one mentioned some questionable calls when the Spurs were involved (or questionable lineups).
3) Every team the Spurs played was either in the playoffs or working to get in or fighting for seeding.
4) There is a silver lining potentially as there are at least flashes of seeing brilliant play by Hill and shooters like Neal and Bonner currently had horrible streaks. Meanwhile, Manu, who was the most clutch player in the NBA over a 5 year period per NBA.com was uncharactistically not clutch, probably out of sheer exhaustion. Parker has been at times brilliant but also made some key errors and he may still be recovering from his injury a little but THERE IS NO TEAM WITH THREE BETTER GUARDS GOING INTO THE PLAYOFFS (or 4 if you can get a hot and assertive Neal going as well)
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/john_schuhmann/11/05/clutch.numbersgame/index.html
Bonner is what he is but if is hitting shots can be on the floor 15-25 minutes a game (which I expect he will be in the playoffs) as long as it is not soley with Blair IMO against most lineups.
5) Splitter is at least not riding the bench all games right now and provides some needed size that Pop can and may actually turn to on some occassions in the playoffs.
The sky is not falling, the team is still a solid team, has a 2 /1/2 game lead thanks to the gutty and under-rated Nuggets; and I (and seemingly others) perhaps over-reacted to Pop's stubborness, the teams poor play by the big three and/or untested reserves at the end, but perhaps this was also a natural "regression to the mean*" effect that in the end a 60-63 win season is still damm good and sets the Spurs in good stead, if healthy for the playoffs.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15333621 Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. .
[I]Outlook
The Spurs' gangbusters performance over the final two months of the 2009-10 regular season confirmed they still have something left in the tank, and they should have enough help from the cavalry this season to build on last season's performance. Between a likely uptick in output from a healthier Parker, the continued development of Hill and Blair and the additions of Splitter and Anderson, San Antonio has a lot of rotation spots that appear to be major upgrades.
As a result, it should be more than able to offset any moderate declines from Duncan and Ginobili this season. I emphasize "moderate," because if one of them collapses, San Antonio's title hopes are toast. But the Spurs have managed those players' minutes so well that one has to think they can age fairly gracefully.
Additionally, we can count on the Spurs' front office to make the right moves in-season as needs arise. San Antonio has won at least 50 games for 11 straight seasons; if you prorate the 1998-99 lockout year, the streak is at 13. That run appears to have at least one more year in it. While I don't see the Spurs as championship favorites, let's not write them off as contenders just yet.
Prediction: 54-28, 1st in Southwest Division, 3rd in Western Conference http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp10/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=SpursForecast1011
(None of ESPN writters predicted the Spurs to win the title by the way and will not still but Spurs still have a legit shot: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-NBAchamps)