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View Full Version : Fears for US recovery as jobs growth slows



JohnnyMarzetti
06-06-2005, 09:48 AM
The US economy generated just 78,000 jobs in May, fewer than half the number expected, rekindling fears that the anaemic labour market may start to slow economic growth.

The figure also heightened speculation that the Federal Reserve might call an end to monetary tightening sooner than previously thought.

The weakness of the labour market has been one of the biggest concerns for economists since the US emerged from recession at the end of 2001. But many analysts believed employers had finally cast aside their reluctance to hire after they added 274,000 to the payroll in April.

Friday's figures suggested that the labour market was once again faltering. The yield on the 10-year bond slid 9 basis points on the news to 3.8 per cent its lowest yield this year although bonds later gave up some of their gains, partly on profit-taking.

“Financial markets are betting that weak employment growth is going to act as a drag on the economy,” said Ian Morris, an economist at HSBC. “If we don't get stronger job increases than this, it is hard to see how consumers can sustain current rates of spending growth.”

The news on jobs capped a week of disappointing economic data and falling bond yields. Figures earlier in the week suggested that the manufacturing sector was growing at its slowest rate in nearly 2 years.

There was also further evidence that inflationary pressures remain more muted than previously thought. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index pointed to a sharp slowdown in the rise of prices paid for raw materials in May. In addition, bond yields were depressed by hints from Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve of Dallas, that an end to monetary tightening was now in sight.

“There is a growing sense that after a rate rise in June, the Fed will become more willing to think of truncating the tightening cycle if the data remains lacklustre,” said Alan Ruskin, director of research at 4Cast, the consultancy.

The silver lining to the report was provided by a fall in the unemployment rate from 5.2 to 5.1 per cent its lowest rate since September 2001.

The rise in hourly earnings was also disappointing, with an advance of just 0.2 per cent on the month and 2.6 per cent over the year. This index which captures about 80 per cent of the work force but excludes managers and professionals suggests that hourly wages are still lagging inflation, which came in at 3.5 in April.

“Slack job growth appears to be making it hard for employees to wring decent pay rises out of companies,” said Jared Bernstein, an analyst at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank. “Job growth has been coming in fits and starts, enough to sustain a recovery but not enough to really start to lift living standards for the bulk of workers.”

May was another disappointing month for the manufacturing sector which has shed around 2.8m jobs since January 2001. In May employment declined by another 7,000 the seventh fall in the past eight months.

The service sector added just 64,000 jobs after 232,000 in April.

--So it looks like even fast food is reaching its saturation point.

I also saw a story this morning that GM may be approaching bankruptcy. The reason, they said, is that their pension funds, which have been promised in their contracts, are costing them too much mainly because of health care costs.
So, they can use bankruptcy to avoid paying what they promised people, but individuals can't anymore.
The main point though, is that if GM does this, it's going to have a rippling effect throughout our economy.

Damn it people!! You all bought Dubya's BS and now you and your children are going to have to live with it!!

RandomGuy
06-07-2005, 02:30 AM
GW is ignoring quite a few fundamental problems with the economy.

This will be the ultimate cost of the distraction in Iraq. Our government's energy and resources are elsewhere, exacerbated by the piss poor planning of our occupation.

Nbadan
06-09-2005, 04:09 AM
[sarcasm]Who needs jobs when you have soaring home values? I could sit at home on my Lazy-boy and make 20K per year on just one property in the right area.[/sarcasm off]

What really gets me is that when Democrats had control of the WH and Senate, all that the Senate minority leader, Newt Gingrich and his conservative Senate co-horts could talk about was its 'New Deal With America' and effort to handcuff liberal spending by forcing a balanced budget amendment on the Democratic administration even though over-all governmental spending has been in line with every Democratic President since Kennedy. Only Carter carried a very slight deficit.

Where is the call for balanced budget amendment by the Republican-controlled congress today? Maybe this is why real old-school Conservatives like Pat Buchanan have lately been voicing their displeasure with the W.H. fiscal and foreign intervention policies and why this Congress has one of the lowest satisfaction ratings ever.

Watch out for 06!

NASHville
06-09-2005, 06:14 AM
Bush has done screwed many Americans.

Clandestino
06-09-2005, 08:38 AM
Jobless claims post biggest drop in 7 weeks

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 last week, the biggest decline in seven weeks, the government reported Thursday.

The Labor Department said 330,000 newly laid-off workers filed benefit claims last week after a surge of 27,000 new claims the previous week, which had been the biggest one-week jump since early 2004.

Labor Department analysts attributed the improvement to fewer layoffs in the auto industry and a shortened workweek because of the Memorial Day holiday, which gave unemployed workers one less day to file claims.

The four-week moving average for claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, also showed improvement last week, falling to 331,750, down from 334,500 the previous week.





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Economists believe that solid economic growth will continue to support increased hiring this year, a prediction that the Bush administration hopes will come true. The administration released a revised economic forecast on Wednesday, projecting that the economy will create 2.1 million jobs this year.

Most private economists believe that the sharp slowdown in job creation seen in May will prove to be a temporary blip. The government reported last week that businesses added just 78,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the weakest increase in almost two years and down sharply from 274,000 jobs created in April.

Part of the improvement in last week's claims number came from a decline in layoffs in the auto industry, which had jumped sharply the previous week.

According to data from the states, layoffs in Michigan rose by 10,419 for the week ending May 28, the biggest jump of any of the states. That was attributed to temporary layoffs at auto plants.

RandomGuy
06-10-2005, 07:26 AM
(an article that misses some key factors regarding the labor market--RG)

(you might want to edit out the ads when you cut and paste there, sparky.

June 3, 2005
The nation's payrolls expanded by 78,000 jobs in May, according to today's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.* This disappointing outcome is about 100,000 jobs below forecasters' expectations and is a sharp reversal from April's job gains of 274,000.*

Averaging over April's strong showing and May's weak report yields a monthly growth of 176,000, close to the trend over the past year.* However, the abrupt downshift in May—in tandem with other weak indicators such as flat or falling hours in most industries, slow wage growth, continued losses in manufacturing, and the ongoing high levels of long-term unemployment—throws cold water on the hope that April's report was the beginning of a new, accelerated growth pace.*

The [omitted] graph plots the monthly changes in payroll employment over the two-year period of job gains since May 2003.* What is revealing here is the "fits and starts" nature of job growth, where strong months are followed by weak ones.* While trend growth is creating enough jobs to sustain the recovery, this pattern suggests that a convincingly strong labor market recovery has yet to take hold.*

In this regard, it is useful to benchmark recent trends to those in the last recovery.* The 1990s recovery was also initially "jobless" but by this point in the cycle was posting much better results.* Over the past year, payrolls have expanded by an average of 165,000 per month, a growth rate of 1.4%.* Over the same period in the last recovery, the average monthly gain was 316,000, and the growth rate was 3.2%, more than twice that of today.

The slack remaining in the job market continues to hold back the rate of hourly wage growth among blue-collar and non-managerial workers.* The growth in hourly wages over the past year was 2.6%, well below inflation, which has been running in the mid-threes (e.g., 3.5%, April 2004-April 2005).*

http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_econindicators_jobspict_20050603

The Ressurrected One
06-10-2005, 08:58 AM
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom...don't y'all ever get tired of predicting the worst?

Clandestino
06-10-2005, 12:02 PM
(you might want to edit out the ads when you cut and paste there, sparky.

haha..

but anyway, the forecasters are never right... who cares what they think is going to happen or should happen...

the jobless claims are done!

scott
06-10-2005, 06:29 PM
MRTS shows that we still need a downward correction of wages to equalize factor costs for labor vs. capital.

Bandit2981
06-10-2005, 07:23 PM
MRTS shows that we still need a downward correction of wages to equalize factor costs for labor vs. capital.
Whose wages?

scott
06-11-2005, 02:35 AM
Wages in general.

RandomGuy
06-11-2005, 07:24 AM
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom...don't y'all ever get tired of predicting the worst?


Nah. I honestly think we are on the verge of some rather nasty economic stuff.

I also believe that some of the coming things, like an energy crunch and ballooning federal debt are 100% avoidable by an administration with any vision and leadership, neither of wich we are getting out of Washington at the moment.

The fun thing is that when the shit hits the fan, the GOP will have been in control of the White House and both houses of Congress.

There won't be any dodging the blame. Bush will be the Hoover redux, with the "What me worry" theory of presidential leadership thoroughly discredited.


All the conservative demogogue f***sticks won't be able to point at Clinton for shit anymore. Pardon the cussing, but that is one of the conservative cliches that I a SO tired of.

"Bush inheirited a weak economy from Clinton" "Bush had to deal with 9-11." will sound very tired in 2008 and beyond...