Wages of Wins: A Mostly Familiar Story in San Antonio

[duncan228]

A Mostly Familiar Story in San Antonio (http://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/04/10/a-mostly-familiar-story-in-san-antonio/)
by dberri
The Wages of Wins Journal

The Spurs have clinched the best record in the Western Conference. And they may finish with the best record in the NBA. But despite their lofty status in the NBA standings, the Spurs have not been a frequent topic in this forum. In fact, the last post dedicated to the Spurs was offered on the 3rd of December (http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/12/03/a-small-sample-in-san-antonio-tells-a-familiar-story/).

That post looked at the Spurs after just 18 games. Now that 80 games have been played, what stories can be told?

The Spurs have won 61 games, but that record is a bit of an illusion. The team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) is 6.3, a mark consistent with a team that would win about 55 or 56 wins in 80 games. When we turn to Wins Produced, we see that these 55 or 56 wins come from a familiar source.


* Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker have combined to produce 31.6 wins.

* Everyone Else on the roster has combined to produce 24.0 wins.

As I did back December, let’s take a similar look at the Spurs across the past four seasons.


* 2006-07: Duncan-Ginobili-Parker (43.9 Wins Produced), Everyone Else (19.2 Wins Produced)

* 2007-08: Duncan-Ginobili-Parker (41.2 Wins Produced), Everyone Else (12.4 Wins Produced)

* 2008-09: Duncan-Ginobili-Parker (30.7 Wins Produced), Everyone Else (20.4 Wins Produced)

* 2009-10: Duncan-Ginobili-Parker (31.7 Wins Produced), Everyone Else (22.8 Wins Produced)

The big three in San Antonio are on pace to produce about as many wins as we have seen in each of the last two seasons. And if that was all the Spurs had, this team would struggle. But Everyone Else on the Spurs is clearly helping. Consequently, although the Spurs are not the “best” team in the NBA (in terms of efficiency differential or Wins Produced), this team does rank among the best.

Keep reading... (http://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/04/10/a-mostly-familiar-story-in-san-antonio/)

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/04/10/a-mostly-familiar-story-in-san-antonio/

[thispego]

eeegh that article sucked. thaks for posting 228

[howbouthemspurs]

Boooooorrriiiiinnnng!

[Bartleby]

So although we don’t know if “some point” for Duncan and Ginobili is 2011-12, we do know that the Spurs need to find someone to replace these players someday . . . . if the Spurs wish to contend again in the future, the team will have to find some players to produce wins in the same quantities it is currently getting from Duncan and Ginobili

Good stuff! This guy doesn't miss a thing.

[spursfaninla]

After the number crunching, the insight offered is that without Manu and Tim, the Spurs will not win as much as they do now. So we better find a replacement for them in the next year or two.

Thanks for that.

[wontstartdumbthreads]

I've done some futher analysis to find the following interesting facts:

When the Spurs play great and the opponent sucks - Spurs win 95%
When the Spurs play great and the opponent plays great - Spurs win 60%
When the Spurs suck and the opponent sucks - Spurs win 50%
When the Spurs suck and the opponent plays great - Spurs win 20%

This is only a summary. My original work contains more catagories such as "Spurs play OK / Opponent sucks" and "Bonner plays / Opponent sucks". But due to the massive amount of time I spent, I am having to charge for the full report. If you would like to purchase the full copy, please let me know by this thread. Since I'm blocked from accessign my own user page.

Disclaimer: Results based moslty on memory.

[senorglory]

I've done some futher analysis to find the following interesting facts:

When the Spurs play great and the opponent sucks - Spurs win 95%
When the Spurs play great and the opponent plays great - Spurs win 60%
When the Spurs suck and the opponent sucks - Spurs win 50%
When the Spurs suck and the opponent plays great - Spurs win 20%

This is only a summary. My original work contains more catagories such as "Spurs play OK / Opponent sucks" and "Bonner plays / Opponent sucks". But due to the massive amount of time I spent, I am having to charge for the full report. If you would like to purchase the full copy, please let me know by this thread. Since I'm blocked from accessign my own user page.

Disclaimer: Results based moslty on memory.

This research is grant worthy.

[wildbill2u]

When was the last time you read something truly novel and insightful about the Spurs. Instead we get rehashed pablum. You read one story for the last few years and you've read 'em all.

Same thing happens on TV in televised games. Last night against the Lakers, one of the talking heads suddenly realized in the 4th quater they had spent the entire game, talking about the Lakers and their season.