Oh no..Polls show independents running from right

[George Gervin's Afro]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...US_0412513.pdf

[EVAY]

George, help us out here...the link doesn't do what I think you intended. Try again?

[Winehole23]

404 error -- page not found

[George Gervin's Afro]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0412513.pdf


someone better warn jacksommerset.. his head may explode

[Winehole23]

http://newlifeonahomestead.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/a_Weather_Vane.jpg

[Winehole23]

We're a year and a half out. The political winds could change. If the economy stays the same or gets worse, that's bad for Obama.

[TeyshaBlue]

Not surprising, really. Just a continuation of the independent vacillation that's occurred over the last decade of elections.

[MannyIsGod]

We're a year and a half out. The political winds could change. If the economy stays the same or gets worse, that's bad for Obama.

It has to get worse for it to be bad news for him. Its growing right now so if it stays the same then it'll grow slightly which is good enough to carry him through.

Not going to take much to flip the house again though. Especially because Obama will draw out more voters than the last election and he'll provide coattails to be ridden. The GOP is really unlikely to nominate someone who can seriously challenge him and if Trump could pull a Perot.

[MannyIsGod]

Its not like the Independents have a clue though. They're just slamming away at buttons in hopes one works. Not likely.

[RandomGuy]

Normally this would be where someone says "I hate to say I told you so", but if I tried to say that, it would be untruthful. I love to say shit like that.

This will continue as long as the Tea Party wing of the GOP is in the driver's seat.

I think the GOP is in for an unpleasant 2012 election and ss a Democrat, I can only hope people like Michele Bachmann keep talking. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised of the DNC didn't pony up for airtime to let her speak directly to the American people.

I have been saying that the GOP has been taken over by its more radical elements for some time, as the RINO comments here so aptly demonstrate.

[TeyshaBlue]

Eh...what Rino comments are you refering to, RG?

[Sec24Row7]

He's not going to get the same turnout this time as he did last time... especially from the black community...

He will get the same % of the voters... but fewer of them will show up at the polls...

It's not "new" and "exciting" anymore.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Normally this would be where someone says "I hate to say I told you so", but if I tried to say that, it would be untruthful. I love to say shit like that.

This will continue as long as the Tea Party wing of the GOP is in the driver's seat.

I think the GOP is in for an unpleasant 2012 election and ss a Democrat, I can only hope people like Michele Bachmann keep talking. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised of the DNC didn't pony up for airtime to let her speak directly to the American people.

I have been saying that the GOP has been taken over by its more radical elements for some time, as the RINO comments here so aptly demonstrate.

Bachmann/Gingrich 2012!

[coyotes_geek]

Its not like the Independents have a clue though. They're just slamming away at buttons in hopes one works. Not likely.

Democrats and republicans slamming away at the same button every single time hasn't exactly worked either.

(Disclaimer: CG = independent. :))

[Winehole23]

It has to get worse for it to be bad news for him. Its growing right now so if it stays the same then it'll grow slightly which is good enough to carry him through. Perhaps. If the country doesn't feel any better about economic prospects in a year and a half, that's probably bad for Obama regardless of the numbers.

[Sec24Row7]

Its not like the Independents have a clue though. They're just slamming away at buttons in hopes one works. Not likely.

Hahah are you for real? I would think a higher percentage of independents know what is going on than members of either party.

They actually wade through the rhetoric to make a decision instead of getting a memo from the mothership as to what their thoughts are.

[RandomGuy]

Eh...what Rino comments are you refering to, RG?

Mainly the usual suspects hammering any Republican that dares to not toe the party line. The self-professed libertarians and Republicans that post here tend to take a dim view of moderates in their party.

Given enough digging, I could probably find comments to support that, starting with Wild Cobra, who I remember specifically making comments to that effect.

[RandomGuy]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0412513.pdf


someone better warn jacksommerset.. his head may explode

Drilled down into this.

The people who identified themselves as moderates tended to identify the GOP as extremist as opposed to mainstream by a ratio of 3:1. Moderates flipped 180 on that ratio when it came to Democrats. (last page of report)

[jack sommerset]

Does anyone really believe this poll? Seriously, give me a few more over a period of a couple of weeks and I may give it some thought.

FYI. I knew you liked pole, george.

[coyotes_geek]

Perhaps. If the country doesn't feel any better about economic prospects in a year and a half, that's probably bad for Obama regardless of the numbers.

$4 gas, 3% inflation and an unemployment rate still in the 8's% would be a pretty tough combination for an incumbent president to overcome.

I certainly hope that's not the reality we're facing 18 months from now, but it's possible.

[jack sommerset]

$4 gas, 3% inflation and an unemployment rate still in the 8's% would be a pretty tough combination for an incumbent president to overcome.

I certainly hope that's not the reality we're facing 18 months from now, but it's possible.

I have 4 jobs. Do you know If I am counted 4 times or just once?

[TeyshaBlue]

Mainly the usual suspects hammering any Republican that dares to not toe the party line. The self-professed libertarians and Republicans that post here tend to take a dim view of moderates in their party.

Given enough digging, I could probably find comments to support that, starting with Wild Cobra, who I remember specifically making comments to that effect.

Oh...I thought you were refering to this thread which, at the time (:lol), was free from RINOIDISMS.

[Sec24Row7]

$4 gas, 3% inflation and an unemployment rate still in the 8's% would be a pretty tough combination for an incumbent president to overcome.

I certainly hope that's not the reality we're facing 18 months from now, but it's possible.

Yeah... would be... know anyone who has a college education, hasn't been arrested, cheated on their spouse or have a horribly tarnished image from the last go round that wants to run against him?

Yeah... when you find that person... tell me... and I might think we have a chance of not making this an 8 year disaster.

[TeyshaBlue]

Drilled down into this.

The people who identified themselves as moderates tended to identify the GOP as extremist as opposed to mainstream by a ratio of 3:1. Moderates flipped 180 on that ratio when it came to Democrats. (last page of report)
Would you describe the Democratic Party more
as mainstream or extremist

Mainstream 46%
.................................................. ...
Extremist
39%
.................................................. .......
Not sure 15%


Would you describe the Republican Party more
as mainstream or extremist?

Mainstream 40%
.................................................. ...
Extremist
48%
.................................................. .......
Not sure 12%


The differential is not quite that stark, RG. With the unsure's covering the margin between mainstream and extremist in both camps, I don't think there's much conclusive evidence of anything in this series of questions.

[baseline bum]

Yeah... would be... know anyone who has a college education, hasn't been arrested, cheated on their spouse or have a horribly tarnished image from the last go round that wants to run against him?

Yeah... when you find that person... tell me... and I might think we have a chance of not making this an 8 year disaster.

Huh? It's already a 10 year disaster.

[MannyIsGod]

Democrats and republicans slamming away at the same button every single time hasn't exactly worked either.

(Disclaimer: CG = independent. :))


Hahah are you for real? I would think a higher percentage of independents know what is going on than members of either party.

They actually wade through the rhetoric to make a decision instead of getting a memo from the mothership as to what their thoughts are.

I don't remember saying Dems or the GOP had a clue either But the fact remains that we're in the exact same position we were in at the last election and you have a swing in independents.

If nothing has changed what are they basing the swing on? They're basing it on a general discontent stemming from larger problems in society that neither party is actually addressing.

If independents actually waded through the rhetoric they would in no way pick either a dem or republican so you can save that bullshit for other independents who will actually buy it.

[TeyshaBlue]

I don't remember saying Dems or the GOP had a clue either But the fact remains that we're in the exact same position we were in at the last election and you have a swing in independents.

If nothing has changed what are they basing the swing on? They're basing it on a general discontent stemming from larger problems in society that neither party is actually addressing.

If independents actually waded through the rhetoric they would in no way pick either a dem or republican so you can save that bullshit for other independents who will actually buy it.

Troof.:tu

[baseline bum]

If independents actually waded through the rhetoric they would in no way pick either a dem or republican so you can save that bullshit for other independents who will actually buy it.

So they'd pick a socialist?

[Sec24Row7]

Huh? It's already a 10 year disaster.

Of course you know what I am talking about, so responding to you trying to explain myself would just be a waste of energy.

Why the hell do people respond to posts on this board like they are running for office?

[MannyIsGod]

$4 gas, 3% inflation and an unemployment rate still in the 8's% would be a pretty tough combination for an incumbent president to overcome.

I certainly hope that's not the reality we're facing 18 months from now, but it's possible.

Obama has better poll numbers than Regan at this point in his first term. There are a lot of parallels. An appreciation of the hill challengers have to climb to beat an incumbent are necessary to fully appreciate how much of an advantage Obama has.

Gonna probably take a combination of an excellent GOP candidate (LOL oh shit I'm sorry LOL) and the economy getting worse. I admit gas prices could have a huge impact but 4 dollar gas isn't new and while it sucks I think you're going to need prices closer to $5 a gallon to have a dent.

To be fair, however, I only play an election pundit on the internet and I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night so take it for what its worth.

[baseline bum]

Obama has better poll numbers than Regan at this point in his first term. There are a lot of parallels.

Fitting, since they're both about equal pieces of shit.

[Sec24Row7]

If independents actually waded through the rhetoric they would in no way pick either a dem or republican so you can save that bullshit for other independents who will actually buy it.

Ohh... so people can't be smart enough to pick and choose who is the best option of the candidates that have a chance to win... to be true independents they have to throw their vote away like an ideologue.

How did those votes for Nader work out for you?

[coyotes_geek]

Yeah... would be... know anyone who has a college education, hasn't been arrested, cheated on their spouse or have a horribly tarnished image from the last go round that wants to run against him?

Yeah... when you find that person... tell me... and I might think we have a chance of not making this an 8 year disaster.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/img/6/3/8/6/1/6/i/6/8/0/o/Rick_Perry1.jpg

(half joking, half not)

[MannyIsGod]

Ohh... so people can't be smart enough to pick and choose who is the best option of the candidates that have a chance to win... to be true independents they have to throw their vote away like an ideologue.

How did those votes for Nader work out for you?

I never said anything of the sort. What I said was very clearly, the choices they are leaving themselves are shit. I find it laughable that you somehow want to frame independents who less than 4 months into a new Congress are already jumping ship as somehow the holders of the best judgement in the political universe.

The fact of the matter is that they make shitty choices and they have no rationale for their choices other than its something other than what is currently in power.

Its exactly as I described up above: A blind man groping in the dark hoping that the next thing he grabs is the choice that saves him. Not likely.

[MannyIsGod]

Its also a false choice when you frame it as "the best candidate who has a chance to win". Yeah, the two choices usually suck but independents are every it as complicit as ideologues in the system that produces two shitty candidates each time. Apparently somehow independents are the smarter decision makers than democrats and republicans but are at their mercy? Thats laughable.

The establishment has the independents by the nuts just like they have everyone else.

[MannyIsGod]

Remember that one time independents chose Ross Perot over Clinton and Bush?

:lol

Yeah, neither do I.

[coyotes_geek]

Obama has better poll numbers than Regan at this point in his first term. There are a lot of parallels. An appreciation of the hill challengers have to climb to beat an incumbent are necessary to fully appreciate how much of an advantage Obama has.

Gonna probably take a combination of an excellent GOP candidate (LOL oh shit I'm sorry LOL) and the economy getting worse. I admit gas prices could have a huge impact but 4 dollar gas isn't new and while it sucks I think you're going to need prices closer to $5 a gallon to have a dent.

If the economy behaves the same way over the next 18 months that it did the 18 months before Reagan's second election then Obama's got nothing to worry about. If you look at the 1 term guys, there's usually a link between inflation & unemployment.


To be fair, however, I only play an election pundit on the internet and I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night so take it for what its worth.

:tu

Me too.

[Sec24Row7]

I remember very well. It gave Clinton credit for the tech bubble prosperity instead of Bush. Bygones.

[Sec24Row7]

Its also a false choice when you frame it as "the best candidate who has a chance to win". Yeah, the two choices usually suck but independents are every it as complicit as ideologues in the system that produces two shitty candidates each time. Apparently somehow independents are the smarter decision makers than democrats and republicans but are at their mercy? Thats laughable.

The establishment has the independents by the nuts just like they have everyone else.

You act as if politicians get elected and then act on their own with no input from their constituencies or the next 2/4/6 years...

[MannyIsGod]

They sure as hell don't listen to independents over their term.

[Sec24Row7]

They sure as hell don't listen to independents over their term.

Hahahaha

[ManuBalboa]

None of this matters. Both parties are running from America's problems.

[ManuBalboa]

Manny you are still delusional.

[Nbadan]

I agree with Manny, none of the stronger candidates I see in the GOP is gonna cut it...I think Romney could give Obama a run but Obama would likely pull it out.....Palin, Trump, Newt, even the Governors....they are a joke....

[RandomGuy]

Would you describe the Democratic Party more
as mainstream or extremist

Mainstream 46%
.................................................. ...
Extremist
39%
.................................................. .......
Not sure 15%


Would you describe the Republican Party more
as mainstream or extremist?

Mainstream 40%
.................................................. ...
Extremist
48%
.................................................. .......
Not sure 12%


The differential is not quite that stark, RG. With the unsure's covering the margin between mainstream and extremist in both camps, I don't think there's much conclusive evidence of anything in this series of questions.

The total differential sure.

I got the wrong page. It was on page 5 of the pdf where they break it down by self-identified "moderateness".

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0412513.pdf

Three to one, moderates identified the GOP as "extremist".

[Nbadan]

Three to one, moderates identified the GOP as "extremist".

Oddly, or not, that's about what we see on this board..

[johnsmith]

Oddly, or not, that's about what we see on this board..

Says the guy furthest to the left.

[Wild Cobra]

A snapshot of the public view when the media makes the republicans out as the bad guys on the budget.

Now that there is a 38-1/2 billion cut, what would a new poll look like?

[LnGrrrR]

If nothing has changed what are they basing the swing on? They're basing it on a general discontent stemming from larger problems in society that neither party is actually addressing.

I'm more of a civil/social liberties voter, and Obama's huge backpedal on that might be one reason for more independents.

[TeyshaBlue]

http://www.digitaljournal.com/img/6/3/8/6/1/6/i/6/8/0/o/Rick_Perry1.jpg

(half joking, half not)

You probably need to have yer ass kicked for that post.:ihit
:lol

[coyotes_geek]

You probably need to have yer ass kicked for that post.:ihit
:lol

:p:

All kidding aside though, I think we're forced to admit two sad truths. First, a run at the white house is probably the only way to get Perry out of the governor's mansion. Second, it's not like there's much in the way of competition for that GOP nomination.

[MannyIsGod]

Perry's not stupid. He's going to sit out a race where the GOP has very slim chances.

[boutons_deux]

Here's a poll that show Repugs voters don't want what the VRWC wants:

"among Republicans the most popular position is that Medicare shouldn't be touched at all."

http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_medicare_gallup_overhaul.jpg

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/04/should-we-gut-medicare-trout

[TeyshaBlue]

Here's a poll that show Repugs voters don't want what the VRWC wants:

"among Republicans the most popular position is that Medicare shouldn't be touched at all."

http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_medicare_gallup_overhaul.jpg

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/04/should-we-gut-medicare-trout

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. The non-minor composite is 61% among adults.

The non-minor composite is 61% among Republicans.:wtf

"These kinds of questions, after all, are pretty useless if they're not tied to anything else. I mean, who wouldn't be in favor of leaving everything the way it is if they don't understand that it might cost them more?"

[lazerelmo]

Debnam produces another leftist poll.

:wakeup