What are the chances this is Bonner's breakout Playoffs?

[Calispursfan11]

With Manu ailing this is Mattie's chance to shine. Discuss.

[Sean Cagney]

Like the post count before this or I mean reply count before me 0.............. Okay?

Neal cool, Green maybe somewhat! Bonner? :lol:lol:lol

[GinobiliForTres]

With Manu ailing this is Mattie's chance to shine. Discuss.

His chances are as down as his shooting percentage was in March.

[duncan228]

...Despite ending his season mired in a shooting slump, Matt Bonner finished as the NBA’s most accurate 3-point shooter at 45.7 percent. It marked the first time a Spurs player has led the league in that category since 2002-03, when Bruce Bowen shot 44.1 percent.

Parker beats Ginobili as Spurs’ top scorer (http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2011/04/15/parker-beats-ginobili-as-spurs-top-scorer/)
Jeff McDonald

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2011/04/15/parker-beats-ginobili-as-spurs-top-scorer/

[Sean Cagney]

Okay also Smith and others shot above .400 in 02, when the playoffs began their old asses phased out and we did not see alot later (Actually 01 and 02), OLD NON MOBILE GUYS WE HAD THEN! Bonner is like them IMO later in the year, will fail later! Neal could be Jax in 03 playoffs, he is our Key IMO from three to scare others.

[Texas_Ranger]

0,1%

[justinandimcool]

Well, he's due. 43% FG last year, 34% three point shooting. If he even only slightly improves, magnify it with all those minutes he's gonna get, it'll be huge. But if he chokes again it will cost us dearly...we might have to rely on Novak.

[1Parker1]

The problem with Bonner is that I think he'll help in the first round, however I feel like as the competition gets tougher and tougher in the playoffs, he shrinks further and further. If the Spurs are lucky enough to get to the WCF and potentially play LA---I have ZERO belief he'll do much. Against the Grizz? I actually think he'll be helpful...Grizz don't really have someone who can defend him out in the 3 point line.

Only silver lining is that he seems to have started his usual playoff slump a little early this season, so maybe he got it all out of his system before the playoffs :)

[Cessation]

zbo and gasol routinelly rape bonner

[admiralsnackbar]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/7/7/f/77fd8f4aee1576f5a4512f6b0d63a71f.png

[Danny.Zhu]

That would be zero.

[ElNono]

If we manage to be up 20, he'll probably look great...

[chazley]

Since our big three seem to be the healthiest they've been in any playoffs where Bonner has gotten minutes, and the fact his percentages have been so subpar for about a month now, I think there is a very good chance you see Bonner have a series or two where he shoots north of 50% from three. If I see him play with Blair in the playoffs though I will scream.

[Sean Cagney]

Since our big three seem to be the healthiest they've been in any playoffs where Bonner has gotten minutes, and the fact his percentages have been so subpar for about a month now, I think there is a very good chance you see Bonner have a series or two where he shoots north of 50% from three. If I see him play with Blair in the playoffs though I will scream.

Yep and bet on us losing that game there if they do! Or games! We will be in control with 8 up or so, then that lineup comes out and we are down three and struggle at the end to keep it up or lose.

[TE]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/7/7/f/77fd8f4aee1576f5a4512f6b0d63a71f.png
:lol

[Calispursfan11]

LOLing re Chazley's "scream" reference to the Blair/Bonner tandem. The only worse frontlne tandem I can think of is Villanueva/Maxiell.

[SenorSpur]

Less than zero.

[ElNono]

Since our big three seem to be the healthiest they've been in any playoffs where Bonner has gotten minutes, and the fact his percentages have been so subpar for about a month now, I think there is a very good chance you see Bonner have a series or two where he shoots north of 50% from three. If I see him play with Blair in the playoffs though I will scream.

This from the guy that actually spent countless posts defending Roger Mason Jr... :depressed

[Cane]

Unlike last year, Bonnner's got a healthy shooting hand (and he's at the top of the 3 point shooting list) and the Spurs have HCA so I expect his play to be better. If I remember right, the Grizzlies are a bad team at defending the 3 point line so things are looking good for the roleplaying floor spacer, offensively anyway. If Gasol and Randolph have to come out of the paint to respect Bonner's shot then thats gravy since that will open up opportunities for the big 3 and others which is a stat thats hard to find other than maybe +/-


:flag:

[baseline bum]

http://horrifticintentions.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/a_chance-jpeg.jpg
So you're telling me there's a chance?

[Obstructed_View]

"With Manu ailing" really worries me, as it presents images of Pop starting Bonner in a Finley role. :lol

Gary Neal might get a chance to really step it up, and George is playing well. If RJ shows up...

[ShoogarBear]

If RJ shows up...

This is more important than Bonner showing up.

However, the chances of it are probably about equal.

[Obstructed_View]

This is more important than Bonner showing up.

However, the chances of it are probably about equal.

Aside from health, RJ rediscovering his game is as critical as any other factor. Pretty much the only way the Spurs get past their lack of size and defense is if they've got a lot of guys pushing the tempo and scoring inside. RJ's ability to draw fouls was huge at the beginning of the season.

[vander]

exactly equal to our title chances

[rayray2k8]

exactly equal to our title chances

which is why they'll lose because of him. :blah

[greyforest]

I think Gary Neal is probably more clutch

[ploto]

Most NBA players don't break out of anything at 31.

[TimDunkem]

Well, he's due. 43% FG last year, 34% three point shooting. If he even only slightly improves, magnify it with all those minutes he's gonna get, it'll be huge. But if he chokes again it will cost us dearly...we might have to rely on Novak.
So will the amount of points he gives up. Bonner is doomed to fail whether it be by shooting a piss-poor percentage, or giving up 10-20 points a game.

[admiralsnackbar]

Most NBA players don't break out of anything at 31.
I wouldn't be surprised if Alvin Robertson had a break-out year.

He's crafty.

[silverblackfan]

Aw crap. Hope springs eternal for a Spurs fan. It would be pretty cool to find out that Bonner is suddenly clutch in the playoffs. It would be even cooler if we could find a way to exploit all the athletic guys that immediately attack his defense.

[eric365]

I think Gary Neal is probably more clutch

It's not Bonner's fault, it's just that there is less space in playoff and Bonner can't shoot when he is a little contested.

Gary Neal's shooting is way more suited for the playoff that Bonner's.

However it was the same with Mason and didn't delivered :depressed

[yavozerb]

Bonner has zero chance of breaking out cause most on ST will always find something wrong with his game....

[DMC]

He's not going to break out. He plays to his ability now. That's why Pop plays the guy in the first place; he does pretty much everything he's physically and mentally able to do.

For someone to have a break out game, they have to have something to break out of and something to break into. He has nothing to break into. He's not in a slump. He's shooting fine. He's just not effective if teams close out on him. That's not going to change in the playoffs.

Danny Green, he could have a break out game. Guys like that who have that potential just stored and waiting, those guys can break out.

[sa_butta]

The only breakout will be whoever he is gaurding...
I hope he shoots well and makes some 3's to help us out, but
his defense is pitiful.

[lefty]

According to Timvp, Bonner was a great signing.

[it's me]

According to Timvp, Bonner was a great signing.

:lmao

[DMC]

We have 61 wins. Everyone on that team seems to be a great signing. I think Tim was questionable however.

[it's me]

Now.... on Bonner's chances of "Playoff breakout".............lol zero, nothing, not even a small chance, nada, cero, ni un poco, nulla, niente, nessuna, etc, etc..........

[pjjrfan]

I got every candle lit in my house, and I plan on getting more. As a fan I just gotta believe Bonner will get his head out of his ass and play big.

[DBMethos]

If Bonner doesn't monumentally suck, that's already better than he's ever done in the playoffs before.

[temujin]

Most NBA players don't break out of anything at 31.

Bruce Bowen says hi.

[cheguevara]

0%

[temujin]

Zero.

Spurs will lose ALL PO games in which Bonner-Blair play >5' together.

[The_Worlds_finest]

Should i get the scab on my Wank checked out

[GrandeDavid]

I think he will rise to the occasion. I know that goes completely against his historical playoff performances, but just a hunch.

[cantthinkofanything]

I wouldn't be surprised if Alvin Robertson had a break-out year.

He's crafty.

I thought this was a good joke.

Maybe better:

What are the chances this is Bonner's breakout Playoffs?

Alvin Robertson has a better chance of breaking out.

[LakerHater]

I hope he does cuz he pure crap out there!

[admiralsnackbar]

I thought this was a good joke.

Maybe better:

What are the chances this is Bonner's breakout Playoffs?

Alvin Robertson has a better chance of breaking out.

:lol Delivery a little rigid, was it?

[Mel_13]

Most NBA players don't break out of anything at 31.


Bonner has zero chance of breaking out cause most on ST will always find something wrong with his game....


He's not going to break out. He plays to his ability now. That's why Pop plays the guy in the first place; he does pretty much everything he's physically and mentally able to do.

For someone to have a break out game, they have to have something to break out of and something to break into. He has nothing to break into. He's not in a slump. He's shooting fine. He's just not effective if teams close out on him. That's not going to change in the playoffs.

Danny Green, he could have a break out game. Guys like that who have that potential just stored and waiting, those guys can break out.

True, true, and true.

[Spursmania]

Zero!

[xtremesteven33]

Bonner just needs to know his role and not do too much. Its apparent he thinks too much when hes out there and doesnt have confidence in himself. What REALLY sucks is that every team has so much confidence scoring the ball when Bonner is on the floor.

I dont think Pop will leave Bonner out there too long if hes sucking that bad.

I hope...

[Spursmania]

...What REALLY sucks is that every team has so much confidence scoring the ball when Bonner is on the floor...

[Hooks]

I'm expecting him to do okay against the Grizz offensively, but his defense will suck as well as his rebounding. In 92 minutes against the Grizz this year he's pulled down a monster 10 rebounds!

I have a feeling Neal will step it up though, he has that "I don't give a fuck" attitude which will help him excel in the playoffs.

[dbestpro]

The only playoff breakout that Bonner might see is a case of shingles.

[The Truth #6]

He'll play hard. If Pop has a good team plan to limit Zach, then hopefully Bonner can follow that plan. Otherwise, Bonner will get abused down low.

[Rummpd]

95% confidence interval = [0.01 - 1]%

Sigh and that is what is wrong we should not even be discussing Bonner and an important playoff role - he is a 10th to 12th man!

[John Basedow]

Neal will show up, imo. Hill will be streaky as always, so take the good with the bad. Expect nothing from JA.

Bonner and RJ will fail miserably--maybe not against the Grizz, but against OKC for sure.


Splitter will be needed (duh), but Pop's probable reluctance to give him minutes will fuck the Spurs in the end.

[Calispursfan11]

Neal will show up, imo. Hill will be streaky as always, so take the good with the bad. Expect nothing from JA.

Bonner and RJ will fail miserably--maybe not against the Grizz, but against OKC for sure.


Splitter will be needed (duh), but Pop's probable reluctance to give him minutes will fuck the Spurs in the end.

John, it's an honor to get your take. How's the personal fitness going and how can I get abs like yours?

[Calispursfan11]

In additon to his league leading 3 point prowess, I'm looking for Bonner the enforcer, as he used to be known while with the Toronto Raptors for violently taking down Kevin Garnett. We need somebody who can lay down the law. Bonner might be the first ever enforcer/straight A student in the NBA and I'm looking for him to kick some Grizzly rear.

[1Parker1]

I'm ok with Bonner not having a breakout playoffs. We need George Hill and Richard Frickin Jefferson to have a breakout to have a fighters chance of advancing to the Finals.

[z0sa]

Bonner better nut the fuck up. Period. Shoot when you're open without hesitation, hustle on both ends, just be yourself ffs. If you think instead of react even one game these playoffs, I'm done defending your sandwich eating ass. You have the experience, you have the spot, you have the ability, just get that shit done.

[ShoogarBear]

I wouldn't be surprised if Alvin Robertson had a break-out year.

He's crafty.

Ha.

[kaji157]

THIS should be a vBookie!!

I would bet everything that he will end up with negative +/- and shooting below .350 from 3 and below .450 overall.

Anyways, the chances he shows up this year are:

0% of showing up by past showings, he 0 of 4 in Chances Of Showing/Times He Showed Up.

15,3% showing up by past showings, he is 4/26 (.153) Good Playoff Game`/Playoff Games played.

31,8% of showing by his overall 3pt shooting % in playoffs .318

36.4% of showing by his overall shooting % in playoffs .364

So by accounting this 3 carelessly selected items Matt Bonners gets a 20.8% chances of having his breakout playoffs.
And yes.... the optimism keeps coming to me... this equals a 1 on 5 chance he will have a breakout playoffs... and this would be the 5th, YES FIFTH time Bonner makes the playoffs..

So all thing considered!!!

Matt Bonner will suck most likely... unless nonsense maths have any sense..

You heard it first, on Spurstalk.

[dunkman]

He's a bench player, except for the sixth man, those players are typically very inconsistent in offensive production. I think that Bonner should have 2-3 good shooting games per series, which what is expected from him. When one bench player doesn't show up others do, so there is a balance.

He showed up in some games in the series against the Suns previous season.

On the defensive end, Bonner knows the Spurs system well, but he's bellow average 1 on 1 and help defender, which may affect overall defense.

[Cessation]

Defenders treat bonner like he isn't there.

[DMC]

Defenders treat bonner like he isn't there.
He's usually not.

[mystargtr34]

I would say 10-15%

[Capt Bringdown]

We know what Bonner's capabilities are, that's the lesser problem. The bigger problem is Pop's coaching, i.e. how Bonner is utilized.

While other role players might see their minutes adjusted according to how they perform or how they matchup with our opponents, this rarely if ever happens with Bonner.

Just like Finley.

[baseline bum]

The Spurs' best hope for a title is for Bynum to get injured. Their second best bet is for Bonner to get hurt.

[5in10]

He'll have his chance against the grizzlies, don't they allow like the most 3s per game? They supposedly have a pretty weak perimeter game, so bonner should get a lot of open looks.

[SpurSpurSpurs]

He'll have his chance against the grizzlies, don't they allow like the most 3s per game? They supposedly have a pretty weak perimeter game, so bonner should get a lot of open looks.

True. Grizzlies can't usually defend the 3. Bonner? Yeah, hell get his open looks and will prolly miss a whole bunch of them. Of course he will fail miserably with his rotation on D and will just watch the ball when rebounding instead of boxing out. Classic! :lol

[will_spurs]

we should not even be discussing Bonner and an important playoff role - he is a 10th to 12th man!

He is a 10th to 12th man playing 5th man minutes. That's why we're talking about it.

We don't need a breakout from Bonner - we just need him to keep playing in the playoffs at the same level as in the regular season. It's indeed kinda sad when "not fading during the playoffs" would be considered a breakout.

[Splits]

5%? 10?

[Spurs 4 The Win]

As long as he keeps using that one handed floater and not relying solely on his 3 point shot, he will be effective for the entire playoffs

Exactly, teams let him penetrate and throw up that floater every time and he can get it whenever he wants. He needs to start taking more runs into the lane to get more opportunities like this.

[Brunodf]

Premature ejaculation... Bonner hit 3-6, played bad D as usual.

[SpurPadre]

Was Bonner's 10 points a playoff career high for him? It has to be, he at least had to score more points in this one game tonight than he did in the entire playoffs last year.

[ElNono]

I'll take anything while Diaw is out, tbh

[Spurs 4 The Win]

He also played a season high in minutes lol

[SpurPadre]

Premature ejaculation... Bonner hit 3-6, played bad D as usual.

To be fair, he played decent help defense in more than a couple moments today. This was simply the best playoff game he's ever had. That being said, one game won't erase a long career of shitty playoff outings. There better be more where that came from because Pop is forced to use him with Diaw out and Splitter playing like Britney Griner trying out for the Mavericks.

[Fabbs]

Premature ejaculation... Bonner hit 3-6, played bad D as usual.
The O rebound where he was feeling all chesty because it was his 2nd O rebound of the possession (both fell into his lap). Tried to put it back up and Howard swatted it with ease. :lol

[Russo21]

I hope so. Any Spur on the court has to give 100% If his on the floor i'll be gunning for him big time and hoping he plays like Mike. That being said, i shit bricks any time i see him hoist a shot, put the ball on the floor or defend someone in big playoff games.

[sventhedog]

probably a 5% chance that he will be "big shot bonner."

can't question his shooting and now some sort of tear drop. he also knows his role and he has become a pretty decent under popovich. but he is really limited too much by his lack of athleticism. not tall enough to guard bigs and not fast enough to guard athletic 4's.

[silverblk mystix]

I enjoyed the part of the game when Bonner hit a shot and Timmy went up to him patted his head and said;

If you continue playing like this - you can finally get rid of that Pontiac and I will personally buy you a German car!

Loved it.

[will_spurs]

Was Bonner's 10 points a playoff career high for him? It has to be, he at least had to score more points in this one game tonight than he did in the entire playoffs last year.

He's not that bad. He has 5 playoffs games with 10+ points (including last night) and his career high is 14 points (against Phoenix in 2009). In 2010-11 his per 36 numbers during the regular season and the playoffs were basically the same.

One game is (way) too early to tell but more than the stats, it's a mix of confidence and poise that can give us a bit of hope.

[Leetonidas]

Matt finally had a playoff game of note, it only took 6 years. Hopefully Matty can keep it up, it's insane how lethal the Spurs could be if this ginger could just hit his threes at a 40% clip. This was big for him imo, he's one of the most unconfident shooters I've ever seen, so this game should definitely boost his confidence and give him a little more of an edge. I'm going to laugh my ass off if the key to winning is pulling Gasol out of the paint and having Bonner drain 3s on him :lol

[Brazil]

That the first time I remember Matty hitting a clutch 3 in the fourth quarter so in my books thats a great first game

[Seventyniner]

That the first time I remember Matty hitting a clutch 3 in the fourth quarter so in my books thats a great first game

From Grizzlies/Spurs game 1 in 2011:


2:09


94-93
Matt Bonner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tony Parker assists)





1:28


94-96
Matt Bonner makes three point jumper (Tim Duncan assists)




Matt's 3 to put the Spurs up 16 yesterday doesn't meet my definition of clutch. Those two do.

I'm not saying he hasn't been bad in the playoffs, just that he isn't 0 for everything in playoff clutch situations.

[Brazil]

From Grizzlies/Spurs game 1 in 2011:


2:09

94-93
Matt Bonner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tony Parker assists)




1:28

94-96
Matt Bonner makes three point jumper (Tim Duncan assists)



Matt's 3 to put the Spurs up 16 yesterday doesn't meet my definition of clutch. Those two do.

I'm not saying he hasn't been bad in the playoffs, just that he isn't 0 for everything in playoff clutch situations.

I stand corrected, didn't remember these two shots during game 1 in 2011. Matt's 3 yesterday is a dagger and was important.

[ambchang]

Matt really wasn't half bad yesterday, and actually played decent D. I don't expect Bonner to stop Howard or Pau by himself. Both are all-star caliber players, and there really isn't anybody who can stop them one on one, but Matt gave good defensive effort to slow them down and allow the defense to set.

[ace3g]

http://media.kens5.com/images/20130421_Spurs_Lakers_04.JPG

[DieHardSpursFan1537]

0.34535242%

[T Park]

Premature ejaculation... Bonner hit 3-6, played bad D as usual.

His defense was solid. Its just he can't match Gasol or Howard's length.
Just because the offensive player is longer and taller doesnt make the defender's defense bad...

[Drachen]

http://media.kens5.com/images/20130421_Spurs_Lakers_04.JPG

White men can't jump?

[024]

Yeah, Bonner was put in a position to fail when he had to guard Gasol. Putting him on Jamison is obviously the best way to go. I can definitely see how the Spurs miss Diaw. Pop even gambled a Blair/Bonner frontcourt in an attempt to give Splitter and Duncan some extra rest. It was pretty disastrous but the Lakers luckily didn't take full advantage. If Pop wants to gamble to give extra rest to Duncan and Splitter, he should really try Baynes.

[moisaenz]

Yeah, Bonner was put in a position to fail when he had to guard Gasol. Putting him on Jamison is obviously the best way to go. I can definitely see how the Spurs miss Diaw. Pop even gambled a Blair/Bonner frontcourt in an attempt to give Splitter and Duncan some extra rest. It was pretty disastrous but the Lakers luckily didn't take full advantage. If Pop wants to gamble to give extra rest to Duncan and Splitter, he should really try Baynes.

If Lakers start being more physical it would not be a bad

[moisaenz]

Yeah, Bonner was put in a position to fail when he had to guard Gasol. Putting him on Jamison is obviously the best way to go. I can definitely see how the Spurs miss Diaw. Pop even gambled a Blair/Bonner frontcourt in an attempt to give Splitter and Duncan some extra rest. It was pretty disastrous but the Lakers luckily didn't take full advantage. If Pop wants to gamble to give extra rest to Duncan and Splitter, he should really try Baynes.

If Lakers start being more physical it would not be a bad idea

[Mark in Austin]

Bonner will always be fool's gold. Always. If you're counting on Bonner to win, you're fucked.

[Sean Cagney]

Bonner will always be fool's gold. Always. If you're counting on Bonner to win, you're fucked.

.................

[spurraider21]

There was only one bad defensive play by bon-bon that sticks out to me. Pau was posting him up, and Bonner literally went matador on one of Gasol's little head fakes and Pau got a layup right at the rim. Most of the time Bonner was able to at least force Pau or Dwight to take a contested hook shot. If he can do that, I'm fine with his D. Will Pau/Dwight get points on Bonner, sure, but they'll make shots against the best of defenders too. As long as they're not layups/dunks he's giving up, I can live with it. Make them work for it. If he's doing that and is being effective on the other end, he's worth minutes. I said before the season, have him out there to space the floor on O and hack a dwight on D. I'm cool with that usage too

[superjames1992]

I've always thought that Bonner played fairly fundamentally sound defense. He just doesn't have the physical skills to be really good at it and you can't really fault him for that. He tries and typically doesn't make many mistakes, though; I can't really get mad over that. And he's certainly a better defender than Blair.

[callo1]

I think this sums it up:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

[Legacy]

I don't wanna' jinx The Red Mamba.

[ezau]

He was solid last time defensively, and I even thought Dwight's block on Bonner's second left should've been a goaltend.