Chance of game 6 victory?

[2centsworth]

What chance do you give the spurs?

I changed my mind. Chances 100%!!!

[HarlemHeat37]

50%, tbh..

[tlongII]

0.00000000001 %

[Leetonidas]

Well, if we break it down, there are two teams playing one game with two possible outcomes for each team. They could beat the Grizzlies or lose to them, vice versa for the Grizz. So, based on this empirical evidence, I would say the Spurs chances of winning this contest are roughly fifty percent.

Give or take.

[lefty]

1% tbh

[sahoopster]

0.00000000001 %

So, you're saying there's a chance?

[braeden0613]

I feel better after the miracle game 5, but still this series has been rough. It's really all in the players hands, if they want this game, they can take it. I say 40-50%

[Cry Havoc]

If Parker comes out aggressive, if Duncan plays solid, and if the guys build on the momentum from last game, I'd say we have a 75% chance to win. Memphis is going to be really tight after letting one slip away, it will be a test of their youth to maintain composure and not try to do too much (i.e., winning the game in the first 10 minutes).

I like our chances. I'll say 65%. Huge shots like that have a tendency to give teams a lot of energy and drive. If our guys answer that shot with the level of play they are capable of, Memphis doesn't stand a chance.

[TDfan2007]

Winner of the first quarter wins the game. The Spurs need to come out with more energy than they did last night.

[GrandeDavid]

55%. The Spurs have a slight edge due to experience, momentum and also the fact that Tony will come in more confident with his midranger. Also, I think the Law of Probability might have something to say. Rare it is that the Spurs love 5 or so straight on the road, which is what they would've done spanning this playoffs and end of regular season if they lose Friday.

[boutons_deux]

Tony finding his balls and shot in OT was beautiful. If that's the end of his jump shooting slump, we'll be OK.

But the entire rotation will have to surpass themselves.

[FromWayDowntown]

If it makes any difference to those of you weighing in on the odds, I can almost guarantee (I'm 99.5% certain) that the Game 6 crew chief will be Danny Crawford, Joey Crawford, or Steve Javie.

And, for what it's worth, I think the greater odds are that it will be one of the Crawfords; I'm leaning toward the belief that it will be Danny Crawford.

[leemajors]

Winner of the first quarter wins the game. The Spurs need to come out with more energy than they did last night.

I'd say it depends more on how the Spurs play in the 3rd.

[sa_butta]

I'd say it depends more on how the Spurs play in the 3rd.
partly true, but even if we are losing at the end of the third it has to be by 10 or less, or I feel like we lose the game. I also feel like we have to play 48 minutes of aggressive basketball on both sides...Do not get comfortable with any lead.

[spursfaninla]

I'd say it depends more on how the Spurs play in the 3rd.

Well, we can't lose the 3rd BADLY, but if we have a lead (like last game) but lose some of it in the 3rd, that would be great.

We just can't get a beatdown like this last game in the 3rd and expect to win.

[2Cleva]

The fact that Memphis took the Spurs best punch in game 5 and they still controlled the game doesn't bode well for SA.

[PDXSpursFan]

Game 6: 30%
Game 7: 60%

[FromWayDowntown]

The fact that Memphis took the Spurs best punch in game 5 and they still controlled the game doesn't bode well for SA.

That is the most worrisome thing about Game 5. The Spurs built a 15 point lead and Memphis just stayed calm and went to work eroding it.

Without a miracle, we're talking offseason after spitting the bit in a must-have home game.

[Warlord23]

Game 6: 30%
Game 7: 60%

Yep, pretty much what I feel

[Mugen]

The fact that Memphis took the Spurs best punch in game 5 and they still controlled the game doesn't bode well for SA.

Very true. But Memphis has played above their heads in 5 games already while SA has yet to play a complete game.

A lot of that can be how MEM is playing us but also a lot of it has been the Spurs' uncharacteristically careless turnovers and a inability to finish on the break.

Fact is Memphis could have shut the door in Game 5 but they didn't and now the Spurs have no life and a new series.

[doobs]

The energy, crispness, and execution in OT made me optimistic about the rest of the series. Even old man Duncan sprang to life.

[sananspursfan21]

20% if the spurs see an unphased group of griz, 75% if they're even the slightest bit scared :)

[Trainwreck2100]

it depends on whether the scrub shooters decide to remember that they are scrub shooters

[Mhak]

My Observation through out the series:

First of all, Tip my hat to Memphis they are playing with confidence.

Our guys are playing out of character. To many turnovers and players not playing their game.

Mcdyess is playing like a rookie and very indecisive on the ball.

Parker shooting 3's. Memphis would take that any day.

Defense going under instead over Guarding Conley. He's shots are all in rhythm.

And Bonner.. nough said.

Those are my concerns.

In order to win next game we need to stop the hurricane. Im still Optimistic we will win this series.

[Crookshanks]

If it makes any difference to those of you weighing in on the odds, I can almost guarantee (I'm 99.5% certain) that the Game 6 crew chief will be Danny Crawford, Joey Crawford, or Steve Javie.

And, for what it's worth, I think the greater odds are that it will be one of the Crawfords; I'm leaning toward the belief that it will be Danny Crawford.

I'm hoping for Steve Javie because he never lets the home crowd sway him. In fact, he sometimes seem to give the benefit of the doubt to the visiting team.

[OoOoOoOoOoO]

I'd say the chances are even. Let's hope the Spurs play with intensity, defending well and hitting their shots and the Grizz players have the worst game ever in their careers. Anything could happen. Go Spurs!

[eyeh8u]

its not on NBAtv so 0%

[DJ Mbenga]

i just dont see some things changing. gasol and randolph continue their rape. will parker keep making those jumpshots. the grizz played solid defense. dared him to make them and he did. will ginobli make more 3s than the entire grizz team?
with a young team that crowd going nuts is gonna help them

[Juggity]

with a young team that crowd going nuts is gonna help them

That crowd ain't gonna have anything to celebrate. They'll be silent by end. :)

[hater]

If it makes any difference to those of you weighing in on the odds, I can almost guarantee (I'm 99.5% certain) that the Game 6 crew chief will be Danny Crawford, Joey Crawford, or Steve Javie.

And, for what it's worth, I think the greater odds are that it will be one of the Crawfords; I'm leaning toward the belief that it will be Danny Crawford.

what do the refs have to do with the outcome of the game?

[Budkin]

Had we just won a close game I would say 30%, but the way we won is going to put a ton of pressure on them to close out. As long as we play well I would now say it's 50/50.

[honestfool84]

i will say the Spurs have a 55% chance of winning.

my heart says 100%.

[hater]

I don't see the Spurs wining game 6. I almost broke my tv seeing the Spurs play the 1st 3 quarters of game 5. Horrible play, still can't even complete a pass. Memphis hasn't changed their game since game 1.

But they do have a real chance. 20%

[redskinfan]

Let's hope that Memphis does not recover from this!!

[Sense]

I'd say around 40%.... The Spurs NEED the desire to win, and to come out aggresively and show this young team how it's done... otherwise they just run all over them again... and the Spurs have never been good against good crowds... and they'll have a great one.

[Mark in Austin]

For a team that is famous for making good adjustments, the Spurs have yet to make one that works aside from less Blair.

Credit Memphis. They recognized a structural weakness in the Spurs they thought they could exploit, and they have gone about doing so very effectively.

It took a miracle shot to get a home elimination game to overtime. That doesn't bode well for game 6.


25%.

[hater]

and the Spurs have never been good against good crowds...

Denver, Phoenix, Seattle, Dallas

[nkdlunch]

50% the teams are so evenly matched it's awesome. This series has game 7 written all over it.

Spurs Grizz is the most entertaining playoff series by far

Grizz will be alittle mentally hurt but not much at all. On the other hand the wild crowd will not affect the Spurs much either.

[Jimcs50]

I guess 55% since Vegas has them as a 1.5 pt favorite.

[ohmwrecker]

I wish I felt better about the Spurs chances, but it's going to be tough. The only saving grace imo, is that the Grizzlies are playing at the top of their level (maybe above) and the Spurs have yet to do that completely.

[sammy]

Spurs win by 10! Spurs in 7! Go Spurs Go!

[GrandeDavid]

The fact that Memphis took the Spurs best punch in game 5 and they still controlled the game doesn't bode well for SA.

I think its the other way around. The Spurs missed more fairly easy shots, took Memphis' best counterpunch and best possible effort in the second half. I see your point, but I think that there are arguments to both sides and I'm sure the next game will come down to the wire. The fact that we have Manu Ginobili and The Shooter makes me feel confident on the Spurs' chances.

[Jimcs50]

The longer the Spurs can either keep it even or keep a small lead, the better chance that Memphis' young inexperienced plaers will fold at crunch time.


Golden State as an 8 seed had same 3-2 lead in 07 against Dallas, and I thought they would fold at home, but they came out and smoked Dallas from the getgo. I hope Memphis does opposite and just tightens up.

[Horse]

Very true. But Memphis has played above their heads in 5 games already while SA has yet to play a complete game.

A lot of that can be how MEM is playing us but also a lot of it has been the Spurs' uncharacteristically careless turnovers and a inability to finish on the break.

Fact is Memphis could have shut the door in Game 5 but they didn't and now the Spurs have no life and a new series.
That's a hugh point our stats from last night are not all that great, they outshot us we had one less turnover. And they still keep getting alot of bounces and unexpected players knocking down shot after shot who the fuck ever heard of young or arthur before this series? We play like we did all reg season we can do it. If we do I believe their inexperience will finally catchup with them in a game 7 on the road:flag:

[Horse]

I think its the other way around. The Spurs missed more fairly easy shots, took Memphis' best counterpunch and best possible effort in the second half. I see your point, but I think that there are arguments to both sides and I'm sure the next game will come down to the wire. The fact that we have Manu Ginobili and The Shooter makes me feel confident on the Spurs' chances.
It took Manu not playing game one, a miracle shot by randolph every bounce and their whole bench playing better than they really are to get a 3-1 lead. They are all talking about how tough this loss was maybe it will finally get in their head, we can do it!

[SenorSpur]

Chances are not good as Grizzlies have exploited the Spurs weak interior - at will - at home and on the road. If the Spurs can keep it close, they have a chance. They certainly cannot afford any long scoring droughts - like they have at the start of the 3rd quarter of Game 4.

They'll have a much better chance if they keep the stupid turnovers to a minimum and win the rebounding battle. I'll give them a 35% chance.

[KaiRMD1]

If the Spurs play for 48 minutes, 100% both games, it's as simple as that. When the Spurs are on, the Grizzlies can't beat us.

[TampaDude]

Realistically, 50% for Game 6...and if the Spurs win that game, 99% for Game 7...NFW the Spurs will lose a Game 7 against the fucking Grizz...NO FUCKING WAY!!!!!

GO SPURS GO!!!!!

[DesignatedT]

Denver, Phoenix, Seattle, Dallas

You forgot New Orleans. Game 7 on the road.

[DesignatedT]

If the series plays out like it has been then the Spurs shouldn't win this game but there is one thing that stands out from previous games and that is Memphis now has the pressure for once. They have gone all series without the pressure on there back so we will see how they handle it.

[George Gervin's Afro]

I think memphis is due a bad game.. in every series there is one game that a team usually really sucks.. I think memphis is due for the sucky game..

[Maddog]

I think memphis is due a bad game.. in every series there is one game that a team usually really sucks.. I think memphis is due for the sucky game..

Wether they are due are not- they have yet to have a bad game.
Part of that is their style of play limits that- having strong post play.

but it's been very close other than game 4. In three losses
1 w/o Manu 4 point lead with less than two minutes
3 down two with the shot clock expiring and Z hits a 3?!
4 beaten soundly

I would put it at the 30-40% chance. Memephis is at home and to date have not gotten flustered. Tip of the hat to Hollins and team.

[TE]

it depends on whether the scrub shooters decide to remember that they are scrub shooters

This.


Never have I seen scrubs for an opposing team shoot outside shots so well against the Spurs. The way the Memphis scrubs are shooting reminds me of the 2006 WCSF (vs Mavs) and last year's series vs Phoenix.


Mike Conley, Sam Young, Tony Allen, Dorrel fucking Arthur, and Randolph have never shot so collectively well against anyone like they are shooting against the Spurs.


Their success is a product of two things:


Confidence and lack of better Spur defense.





I hope their confidence is rattled because if not, it'll be game 4 all over again.

[ace3g]

For me this has been a 50/50 series; in terms of all the 50/50 balls (A loose ball contested by a player from each team, where neither is considered favorite to reach the ball first). Pretty much the entire series, the Grizzlies have gotten to these "50/50" balls, whether that be rebounds, loose balls, baskets where the ball seems to touch every part of the rim before falling in, etc.

If the Spurs can limit the Grizzlies to even half of those 50/50s, the Spurs chances of a Game 6 victory will increase exponentially.

[Jimcs50]

Griz already restless:


This article in today's Memphis paper.


Zach Randolph couldn’t sleep.

Mike Conley and several teammates watched Game 5 again and again.

But the Grizzlies insist that they won’t be reeling when their playoff series with the San Antonio Spurs shifts back to FedExForum for Game 6 Friday night at 8.

They’ll be restless.

“I wish we could play right now,” Randolph said this afternoon after the Griz gathered for a film session.

Memphis leads 3-2 in the best-of-seven, first-round match-up with a chance to end the series in front of its home crowd.

The game will be televised on ESPN and SportSouth.

Tickets went on sale at 10 a.m. and the team announced that the game sold out in five minutes. It was the fastest sellout in franchise history.

On the floor, the Griz still are trying to become just the second eighth seed to oust a No. 1 seed in a seven-game series. Memphis led the series 3-1 before losing 110-103 in overtime Wednesday night at San Antonio’s AT&T Center.

Griz coach Lionel Hollins used the Game 5 video to remind his players of why they still are in command.

“We’ve got to go out and give another good effort (Friday) night,” Hollins said.

© 2011 Memphis Commercial Appeal. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

[Chomag]

I think the pressure is more on the grizzlies now for game 6. The Spurs are still struggling to decisively beat them so I still think I would not count out the Grizzlies. Either way it's going to be apretty good game I think.

[phxspurfan]

100,000%

[Jimcs50]

I hope we don't need to score 7 points in last 13.6 secs to tie game again.

:p:

[foodie2]

Watching Manu's postgame interview, I came away with the feeling that he has doubts, and that can't happen. I realize he has to be realistic, but he just comes across as thinking that it is just going to be too hard.

[Hoops Czar]

About the same as Philly's chances against Miami.

[Mugen]

Watching Manu's postgame interview, I came away with the feeling that he has doubts, and that can't happen. I realize he has to be realistic, but he just comes across as thinking that it is just going to be too hard.

Manu has always been a realist. He's never been a Sheed type of guy who makes guarantees to pump up his squad. He says what's on his mind.

He's the last guy I'm worried about for tomorrow.

[TampaDude]

Grizz have GOT to be feeling the pressure now, no matter what they say or don't say...they know they MUST win Game 6...they know that a Game 7 back in SA is the nightmare scenario for Memphis.

[dbreiden83080]

Dig the fuck in and keep it close.. Memphis will be pressured maybe into folding..

[xellos88330]

Depends on the 3rd quarter.

[spurtech09]

What chance do you give the spurs?

I say 25%
with the spurs finally playing spur basketball and tony parker finally good signs....I like spurs chances....80% chance

[spurspokesman]

Winner of the first quarter wins the game. The Spurs need to come out with more energy than they did last night.

This

[Jimcs50]

with the spurs finally playing spur basketball and tony parker finally good signs....I like spurs chances....80% chance



100%


I would bet the farm, the house, the dog, everything I have on this game. Spurs are winning it or wine for everyone.

[spurs10]

I'd say it depends more on how the Spurs play in the 3rd.
I agree. The 3rd quarter is pivotal. The last two is were they've outplayed us. We know they'll be coming out of the half all pumped up. It's time to turn this series around and bring it back home!! If we play like we played in OT, I think we've got a great shot of winning!!
:ihit:flag::ihit:flag:

[Hoops Czar]

with the spurs finally playing spur basketball and tony parker finally good signs....I like spurs chances....80% chance

Spurs basketball? They needed a Manu fling and a Neal three at the buzzer to send the game into overtime. They couldn't stop Memphis in the second half. They blew a 16 point first half lead. This is Spurs basketball?

[gospursgojas]

Fuck all yalls 20 and 30 percents...

100%.

Spurs are back in this shit.

[waly.mg]

1,000,000,000 % more than with 3 second left in the 5th game

[waly.mg]

i Think the 5th game was a must win for the Spurs and Memphis best choice was a garbage lose or a win, but not a heartbreaker lose

That game was a heartbreaker lose, so the chances of win are more

[Hoops Czar]

i Think the 5th game was a must win for the Spurs and Memphis best choice was a garbage lose or a win, but not a heartbreaker lose

That game was a heartbreaker lose, so the chances of win are more

You think....

[waly.mg]

http://www.blogzilla.es/wp-content/uploads/susan-boyle.jpg

[waly.mg]

You think....

i Think the 5th game was a must win for the Spurs BUT Memphis best choice was a garbage lose or a win, but not a heartbreaker lose

[dn0774]

The offense is due for a breakout game imo...our 3's have to fall eventually. If we can keep our turnovers down and Parker can actually finish at the rim we'll be fine. Parker needs to win his matchup with Conley decisively.

[kaji157]

I wouldnt be so optimistic.
I think we are clearly underdogs here, at most i give us 40% chance of victory. We have just won 2 out of 5 so that's pretty logical.
That 40% chances depend on many things, we need solid nights from a lot of players and one or two have to excel.
We need to get back to our basics, i know pop thinks Manu would save him more often than not, but also moving the ball better wouldnt hurt, this Memphis team runs a lot on defense, covering spaces, we have to move the ball a lot more, ala 2007.
On defense McDyess, Duncan and Splitter need to at least play as they played yesterday, Splitter seems to me to be the one with best chances against Gasol, not so much about Z-Bo, i would make that swich, or at least try it when McDyess is on Z-Bo to see what happens.
Also we have to run more, this Memphis team is very good when their defense is set, Tony and Hill having their confidence back up will help in that regard, Jefferson is still missing, maybe he finds some mojo and also helps here a bit.

All in all, a lot of things have to fall in their place for us to win, i will think that we will loose, because everytime i thought we were going to win, we lost, and yesterday was the oposite and we won, so i will stick to my looser mentality, just to help the team the only way i can.

Don't hate me, i hate for the good of the team.

[Waps1980]

What if Manu fired 1st then Neal fired the 2nd round that busted the Grizz up.
There shots just might not fall like they have done all series, the Grizz had the game won to only have it ripped away.
What does that feeling do to a team its got to get some kind of emotional rollercoaster going, possible derail the bloody thing.

Great chance in game 6

Geez they only won game 1 & 3 by scoring a 3 pointer in the last minute of each game.
Spurs have a good chance 60% I say of taking game 6.
We have nothing to lose seen as we never should have got to game 6, its like a free round, our guys are going to come out fully loaded.

[alchemist]

"We don't want to go back" to San Antonio, Randolph said.




honestly this is the real game 7. The Grizz know that if they lose Game 6 they won't get another W this series. For the Spurs obviously if they lose there's no other day to play.

I expect this game to be a slug fest, the Spurs don't want it to end like this. Neither do the Grizz. One for ages.

[Mugen]

0-4 in Memphis this year. They are due.

[Spurs Brazil]

100%

1.

[TE]

It's time to nut up, or shut the fuck up.
:flag:

If the Spurs can't win tomorrow, then they never deserved to win a title this year.

[Chaz]

%51

[fotan2]

game 6 : 1%
game 7 : 99%

if memphis blows their 99% winable game on frieday, just don't bother playing game 7.

[jack0fspeed]

Mavericks pulled off the dramatic G5 win vs GSW in 2007 to pull to 2-3...then lost by 25 in G6.

I see the same happening here.

[Johnny RIngo]

5% - Too many gutless cowards on this Spurs team(Jefferson, Bonner, Hill, Blair). I expect all four of them to play like shit on Friday.

[1Parker1]

Game will start off close in the first half and I think the Grizz will pull away in the 3rd and 4th.

Spurs were in a do or die situation on their own homecourt after winning 61 games and the Grizz took their best punch when the Spurs went up 16....and the Grizz calmly came back. I don't know what the heck Hollins tells his team at halftime--but every game it seems to do the trick.

It will take a miracle part deux for the Spurs to win tommorow night in Memphis. I just don't have confidence in the role players (specifically Hill and Bonner and RJ) to be effective on the road. And Tim Duncan isn't going to magically give us 25 and 10 like the old days. The only hope I can think of is that the Grizz are due for a poor shooting night...but I doubt it'll happen against the Spurs porous defense.

[Man In Black]

As long as Bonner & Jefferson play limited minutes, that Hill replicates his 4th quarter performance, and McDyess doesn't try any hero-type passes...then I think the Spurs can gut out a W in Memphis. I'm hoping Tim turns back the clock and gives us a 20-10-5 game but I must give Memphis credit for how hard they are playing. Spurs need to be even more physical than them and they need to SHOW it. Make the dog whimper back to the crate.

[ElNono]

It will depend on the 3 point lottery... if we have an inspired night from outside and the balls to jack them up even with people coming at you, we might luck out...

If we shot like the rest of the series (with the exception of the last 5 seconds of Q4 G5), I'll say it's pretty much a done deal.

[ElNono]

As long as Bonner & Jefferson play limited minutes, that Hill replicates his 4th quarter performance, and McDyess doesn't try any hero-type passes...then I think the Spurs can gut out a W in Memphis. I'm hoping Tim turns back the clock and gives us a 20-10-5 game but I must give Memphis credit for how hard they are playing. Spurs need to be even more physical than them and they need to SHOW it. Make the dog whimper back to the crate.

It's tough to be overly physical on the road...

[Obstructed_View]

The bad news: The Spurs haven't played a great game in probably close to 2 months. They haven't played a 48 minute game in God knows how long. They haven't been able to execute consistently at the end of games in over a month, and now they've suddenly rediscovered the inability to come out after halftime with any intensity.

The good news: Parker is getting assists, not turning the ball over as badly, and rediscovered both his midrange jumper and his killer instinct at the end of game five. The Spurs are playing better defense in general than most of us thought they could. They showed some ability to get three point attempts for a change, and the pressure should now be on Memphis instead of San Antonio, who really have nothing to lose tomorrow and can play loose.

Still missing the entire bench this postseason and the three point percentage, which were supposed to be the biggest strengths of the team. I say 25% at best.

[ezau]

That is the most worrisome thing about Game 5. The Spurs built a 15 point lead and Memphis just stayed calm and went to work eroding it.

Without a miracle, we're talking offseason after spitting the bit in a must-have home game.

Memphis was playing without any pressure because they were up 3-1. Now that they have to close out the Spurs after a game that they should have won, the pressure is going to affect them next game.

[chasky]

Game Six: 1/3.
Game Seven: 2/3.

Win the Series = 1/3*2/3 = 2/9 ~= 0.22.

Aprox. the same % of Tony missing FT's.

[Man In Black]

It's tough to be overly physical on the road...
Memphis hasn't had a problem with playing that way, neither should the Spurs.
I would prefer that Silver & Black go down fighting Alamo style than choose the soft as Charmin White Flag route. They can't call every foul. But it starts with personnel. If Bonner's turnstile defense is in the game for more than 15 minutes, that white flag is being raised.
The Spurs need to go hard and :ihit
They do that and then we can pull this series even. The Spurs have forced Game 7's being down 3-1. It's high time they won one.

[Obstructed_View]

If the Spurs play for 48 minutes, 100% both games, it's as simple as that. When the Spurs are on, the Grizzlies can't beat us.

Agreed, but what are the chances that the Spurs play for 48 minutes for two games?

[all_heart]

Spurs got to play hard nosed D for 48 minutes, something they have done in short spurts in a few games. They should double Z-Bo early and force Memphis to pass the ball and hit long range shots. Make them work hard for their points. This should help wear them down and make it that much harder to play good D on the Spurs. Nobody is due for anything, they need to work hard for a victory tomorrow.

[Spurminator]

I still hold to a, perhaps naive, view that the Spurs are the better team, and as such will always have the better chance of winning as long as they don't screw themselves. Guess we'll see.

51%.

[024]

the 50% estimates are way too high. spurs have yet to show in any of the games how they plan on beating the grizzlies. even in a game 5 elimination in home court, the spurs got outplayed in the second half and required two miracle heaves just to stay in the game. by the time OT came around, the grizzlies finally said fuck it and decided to close this series back at home. if the grizzlies can out play the spurs so hard in the second half of a pretty meaningless game to them, they will bring the pain in a game 6 back at home. odds of SA winning is 30%.

[TDMVPDPOY]

only wat to win, execute and attack the rim get them bigs into early foul trouble

[siraulo23]

For me this has been a 50/50 series; in terms of all the 50/50 balls (A loose ball contested by a player from each team, where neither is considered favorite to reach the ball first). Pretty much the entire series, the Grizzlies have gotten to these "50/50" balls, whether that be rebounds, loose balls, baskets where the ball seems to touch every part of the rim before falling in, etc.

If the Spurs can limit the Grizzlies to even half of those 50/50s, the Spurs chances of a Game 6 victory will increase exponentially.

pisses me off the most, how many of them do they average in a game?

[Sean Cagney]

Spurs have a long shot here, I would say maybe 30%, but if their shots fall and Memphis is off I see them pulling it off and going to 7 games!

[ElNono]

Memphis hasn't had a problem with playing that way, neither should the Spurs.
I would prefer that Silver & Black go down fighting Alamo style than choose the soft as Charmin White Flag route. They can't call every foul. But it starts with personnel. If Bonner's turnstile defense is in the game for more than 15 minutes, that white flag is being raised.
The Spurs need to go hard and :ihit
They do that and then we can pull this series even. The Spurs have forced Game 7's being down 3-1. It's high time they won one.

The difference is that the Griz are smart as far as where they play tough... just play the tape and watch Battier while he's in there... he's pushing and shoving everybody off the ball... They're also very aggressive fighting the boxouts for offensive rebounds (again, without the ball).

We instead push and shove the guy with the ball once we realize we can't stop him from scoring.

We tried to play our style of tough starting the 3rd quarter of Game 4, fouling instead of allowing a layup. And it ended up in a 14-0 run all from the FT line.

You also need to remember that Pop wants this team not to foul. That's been the philosophy all season long, and it's just difficult to change the mentality for just one game.

The game will have to be won playing hard, the brand of defense they tried to play in the OT, but for a much longer time (hard to do when TD can't play over 30-something minutes), and making shots... a lot of shots.

[Isitjustme?]

20%

[TD 21]

For me this has been a 50/50 series; in terms of all the 50/50 balls (A loose ball contested by a player from each team, where neither is considered favorite to reach the ball first). Pretty much the entire series, the Grizzlies have gotten to these "50/50" balls, whether that be rebounds, loose balls, baskets where the ball seems to touch every part of the rim before falling in, etc.

If the Spurs can limit the Grizzlies to even half of those 50/50s, the Spurs chances of a Game 6 victory will increase exponentially.

Jefferson had at least two chances yesterday to dive on the floor for loose balls (both should have been his), yet he hesitated, then went down meekly, while Conley threw himself on the ball and secured both. If Jefferson secures both of those balls, that's two more possessions and maybe it doesn't take all it took at the end to win.

With the season on the line, the Spurs choose to go with three guards, two of which were physically over matched in their match-ups, over Jefferson. On offense, Hill is basically exclusively a spot up shooter when playing with Parker and Ginobili. Jefferson has been the better three point shooter all season AND physically, unlike Hill, he's capable of matching up with Young and Battier. Yet despite that and the fact that Young was killing them in the fourth, they still stuck with Hill over him. That shows you how little confidence they have in Jefferson. He should be taking that personally.

[NewJerSpur]

Hopefully by halftime the score is something like 52-40 Spurs.....will need Hill to step up and stay agressive and DECISIVE, need Dice to stop shooting outside of his range and continue to battle and crash the boards, Neal to bail us out with some clutch (Mike Conley-esque) jumpers and for TP to continue to rediscover his midrange jumper.

As silly as this may sound, I think if anything puts pressure on a group of youngsters like Memphis despite how poised they've been to-date is seeing the other NBA teams closing out around them.....might not even be so much pressure as much as it is a feeling of angst in that they may want to rush to the 2nd round especially after losing in the way that they did; they may be in a hurry up to put the past behind them and move on like the rest of their peers leading their respective series. Just a thought......please no 3rd quarter TO-fest, please.

[objective]

Spurs chances go up as Bonner and Jefferson's minutes go down.

That's basically the key to the game. Sure, they can win with those two playing. They won games 2 and 5 while those two played about 53 minutes combined in each game.

The more Splitter, the better. Don't believe this nonsense that Splitter and Duncan can't play together. The Spurs are better with their better players playing, and that's Splitter.

A perfect world would have a 3-big rotation of TD, McDyess and Splitter with Blair filling in spot minutes.

And re: Jefferson, any minutes he doesn't play are positives. He might hit a three, or get some free throws, but he is just not bringing enough to the table to warrant his minutes. If that means more Hill, or Neal, or even Danny Green or fat Anderson, so be it.

[DirkISaCocLuvinPuSSy]

GRIZZ DAWN FUCKED UP, all i gotta say.

[Yorae]

uhmm is sam young really this good?

[Doctor J]

Mavericks pulled off the dramatic G5 win vs GSW in 2007 to pull to 2-3...then lost by 25 in G6.

I see the same happening here.


Spurs are not Mavs.

Years after years, they have done it, and they just know what it takes to get out of this kind of situation. That is why they won 4 rings.

[Rummpd]

Spurs taking this to Sunday.....

[admiralsnackbar]

I'd love to say we got this, but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if we were able to take it to gm 7.

As long as the Griz keep chasing us off the 3 and forcing us down to their bigs, we'll be without our golden goose of outside shooting. I'd say better ball-movement would help, but Mayo and Allen have been great at covering the passing lanes, so really we're living and dying by our slashers having enough success to start collapsing the Memphis defense.

If Tony, Hill, and Ginobili can have a great first half slashing, that would hopefully set the stage for a sustainable 2nd half with a more diversified offense featuring outside shooters. Unfortunately all 3 players have played below their potential all series for their own reasons.

[Danny.Zhu]

45%

[ManuTastic]

I'm gonna go with 53%. So far this series, Memphis has gotten every damn bounce and lucky roll on every shot, and we've gotten almost none. I'd like to see a few of their short shots rim out.