Simmons: Defining the NBA Finals

[td4mvp3]

Fact: There have only been three Game 7s in the NBA Finals since 1979.


Fact: Not since the '98 Bulls has the eventual champion been in danger of blowing the series during an NBA Finals.


Fact: There's a 90 percent chance that we're headed for another lopsided Finals.
With all due respect to the world champs, the Pistons are a seven-man team that can't even slap together three good games in a row. You really think that's cutting it against a team with a ceiling as high as the Spurs? I keep reading how this series is going to be boring, how we could have some 50-48 games, how America will be falling asleep by Game 2. Has anyone actually watched the Spurs? What more could you want from a basketball team? They banged bodies with a physical Nuggets team in Round 1, handled Seattle's smallball gimmick in Round 2, then played run-and-gun with the Suns in Round 3. Can you remember another basketball team adapting to three different styles in three rounds like that? Dallas is more malleable than Russell Crowe.


That's why the Pistons are in trouble. They have one distinctive style – slow everything down, limit possessions, keep doing the little things, take good shots in crunch time, don't beat themselves – and their uncanny ability to make two or three game-changing plays in the final minutes has been positively Belichick-esque. Well, guess what? The Spurs can play the exact same way, only they have the two best players in the series (Duncan and Ginobili), a better bench and homecourt advantage … and if that's not enough, they've been resting for a week while the Pistons were enduring a grueling seven-game series against a team that probably would have beaten them if Dwyane Wade wasn't injured.


This isn't a pick against the Pistons – I love what they have done during the past two seasons. It's just that the Spurs are that good. In fact, I think they have a chance to become the best title team in eight years (since the '97 Bulls). So I'm going with the Spurs in five.


Some other thoughts …


• Interesting quote from Suns coach Mike D'Antoni this week: "[Tim Duncan] is the ultimate winner, and that's why they're so good … I hate saying it, but he's the best player in the game."


Translation: Duncan is so good, I just threw my 2005 MVP under the bus.


And since Duncan is in his absolute prime right now (eighth season, 29 years old), the whole "Is he the greatest power forward of all-time?" debate has been one of the running subplots of the playoffs. On "Pardon the Interruption" this week, both Kornheiser and Wilbon agreed that he was headed that way but hadn't earned the title yet. Which I find patently absurd, of course. Why couldn't you make the claim? What other power forward was the best guy on a team that won three titles in his first eight seasons? Who was a more complete player? And most important, what would you change about him?


Maybe he isn't as unstoppable in the low-post as Hakeem; maybe he isn't the defender that McHale was; maybe he isn't as good a passer as Walton; maybe he doesn't rebound like Moses; maybe he isn't as explosive as Barkley was; maybe he doesn't put up big numbers quite as consistently as the Mailman did. But he's in the general ballpark with each of those guys in their best categories, isn't he? Has any big man ever brought more to the table?


Comparing him to the other candidates at power forward ...


Karl Malone – Fifty years from now, people will examine his stats and say, "Wait a second, this guy was one of the five best basketball players ever!" And that's why you shouldn't totally trust statistics. There was no stat that could fully capture the Karl Malone "Uh-oh, I'm taking another dump in a big playoff game" Face.
Charles Barkley – His ceiling may have been higher than anyone else's, but Barkley's career actually makes me a little angry. You watch those old Suns games from the '93 season and it's like, "Why the heck did it take him nine years to get in phenomenal shape?" And unlike Malone, his playoff stats were always better than his regular season stats – for instance, in the '86 playoffs (his second season), he averaged a 26-15 in 12 games. Remarkable. I think we will see 20 more Karl Malones before we see another 6-foot-4 power forward who could dominate games like that. Still, he just wasn't as consistent as Duncan, although he is infinitely more fun to hang out with.


Kevin McHale – We'll never know how good he could have been because he broke his foot during the '87 season (when he made first-team All-NBA and shot 60 percent from the field), then aggravated the injury beyond repair during the playoffs. He was never the same after that. But he was the best low-post player in the history of the position, as well as the best defender (everyone forgets this now, but he has to be the only guy who ever guarded Kareem and Andrew Toney within a two-month span).


Elvin Hayes – A little before my time, but everyone seems to agree that he made Karl Malone look clutch by comparison.


Bob Pettit – Sorry, I can't vote for anyone who played during an era when players actually smoked butts at halftime.


My vote still goes to Duncan. Although Amare Stoudemire might end up blowing everyone else away before everything's said and done. Or, as Detroit reader Mike Rooney points out, "If there's an NBA lockout, there's a chance that Amare Stoudemire could put on 150 pounds like Shawn Kemp did. Shouldn't that be enough to get the sides to agree?"


• This is worth rehashing one more time: The center spot was San Antonio's Achilles' heel dating back to David Robinson's retirement and the indefensible Rasho Nesterovic signing, the only real mistake of the R.C. Buford Era (yes, that's the Spurs GM, and yes, that's a stage name). So when they hijacked Nazr Mohammed from the Knicks in February – one of those crazily one-sided trades that actually made me gasp out loud when it happened (the trading equivalent of seeing a Lindsay Lohan photo from the past six weeks) – they didn't just acquire a half-decent center who could give them 25 minutes a night, they were knocking their only weak link (Rasho) out of their playoff rotation. In 16 playoff games, Rasho hasn't played a total of 100 minutes yet.


So in a way, the Mohammed trade was the 2005 equivalent of the Rasheed Wallace trade; maybe it didn't have the same cachet, but it was just as crucial to the overall success of the team. You can't win a championship with Rasho playing 25 minutes a game … but you can win a championship with Mohammed playing 25 minutes a game. In other words, there isn't a day that goes by that R.C. Buford isn't thinking, "Thank God I called Isiah that day just to offer that stupid trade that I never thought he would do."

[spur219]

Great article.

[Extra Stout]

I don't think it was a good article. Simmons underrates the Pistons. He also thought they would get blown out in Game 7 against Miami.

[wildbill2u]

To TD4MVP3:

Some really good stuff, but too much to answer or cite in one post--or even one thread.

[1Parker1]

"You can't win a championship with Rasho playing 25 minutes a game …"

I said this at the begining of the season, before anyone had any idea about the trade. And I was bashed with people saying Rasho is great defensively for us, etc. etc. and that we have a good enough team to win the championship.

[SpursWoman]

I don't think it was a good article. Simmons underrates the Pistons. He also thought they would get blown out in Game 7 against Miami.


He also thought it would be better for basketball if the Suns beat the Spurs. :fro

[SouthernFried]

Underrating the Pistons again.

Damn, I wish we'd get that type of treatment. I hate all this media hype by the media. Pistons are chomping at the bit..."We are the champions...we are in the Finals for 2nd straight year...and everyone is jumping on the Spurs bandwagon. Yeah...lets play some ball."

Talk about motivation...I wish the Spurs were as pissed off as the Pistons are gonna be.

Where's Steve Smith when u need him?

[easjer]

^ Heh.

Rasho is underrated. I know he's no favorite here, but come on. He didn't play 25 mins against Denver because of the ankle injury, same going into the Sonics. Against Pheonix, Nazr was clearly the better choice because he's faster. But let's not pretend Rasho doesn't have his uses - he does. He's better defensively than Nazr and I think would be better against big men like Beg Ben and Shaq.

None of that to say I wish we didn't have Nazr, just that Rasho does ok, you know? And who would that guy have us sign, precisely? Our top choices went to Sacramento and Indiana. Rasho was the best thing left (other than a rookie), and he produced the same numbers DRob produced in his final season.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I think the church of rasho will be no more after this season if Rasho doesn't have a good series.

I'm personally still undecided as to whether he really is that worthless or not. Hmmm...

Oh well, pistons are so screwwwwwed, they're going to be totally unready to handle this team.

[ZappaFan]

That's why the Pistons are in trouble. They have one distinctive style – slow everything down, limit possessions,

This misconception keeps getting repeated by a lot of people. The Pistons push the ball upcourt whenever they have the opportunity. I can't believe anybody actually watching them play hasn't seen that.

The Pistons certainly want to keep it in the half-court for their defense, but on offense they love to push the ball. Their key is if they have to pull it up in the half-court, make sure they share the ball and get a good shot. In those instances where they don't run, they certainly do try to work the shot clock and get a high percentage shot. They absolutely need to limit the turnovers because then that limits the fast break opportunities of the opponent (as does the good shot selection).

But make no mistake, when the Pistons see an opportunity to run, they are all over it!

[td4mvp3]

what i'm really tired of hearing are two things:
-- don't give us the spotlight, it will only give the pistons reason to really go at us
-- pistons play down to their opponents (wasn't brought up in this thread, but i have read it elsewhere)

i think what people really liked about the lakers wasn't so much the drama but not the constant race to be the little guy. hell, skip the lakers and look at the 90s bulls. complete package, great swagger and confidence, not really in-your-face and rude about their dominance but utterly convinced that they would win and that you knew it too. the pistons did a lot of the claiming underdog status in the miami series, always pining about how no one respects them and they're the underdogs. plenty of folks do it here as well, crying when lots of writers start praising the spurs, and rightfully so, for being the best in the league. i wish someone would just come out and accept the top dog spot. you don't have to be obnoxious about it but there's no reason to constantly yearn for the underdog position.

as for the "playing down to their oppnents" nonsense, how good can you really be if you're so influenced by your opponents play. isn't that what the whole "imposing your will" thing is about?

i liked this article precisely because it sums up what i think about when i look at the numbers. if defense is the game, we're a bit better (there's a story on foxsports i'll post if no one has, really makes the case). if it's an offensive fight, we're a bit more better. i'm not saying sweep, i'm not saying how long it will go, i'm just saying it would be a monumental letdown if the spurs didn't win it.

[Experiment2100]

This misconception keeps getting repeated by a lot of people. The Pistons push the ball upcourt whenever they have the opportunity. I can't believe anybody actually watching them play hasn't seen that.

The Pistons certainly want to keep it in the half-court for their defense, but on offense they love to push the ball. Their key is if they have to pull it up in the half-court, make sure they share the ball and get a good shot. In those instances where they don't run, they certainly do try to work the shot clock and get a high percentage shot. They absolutely need to limit the turnovers because then that limits the fast break opportunities of the opponent (as does the good shot selection).

But make no mistake, when the Pistons see an opportunity to run, they are all over it!

THe Spurs proved their ability to limit transition opportunities when they played the best transition team in the league. So Det. will not get the same easy transition baskets. I won't look for either team to run it up that much during this series.

[duncan_21]

Good article. I do believe that suns v eastern team would be better for the nba financially but I think in a sort of way this spurs pistons might be a great series for the casual fan.

You got 2 good play as a team teams and you got your exciting individual players as well. Can't wait about 30 hrs away!!!

[TMSKILZ]

A healthy D.Wade = Heat in finals & Det gone fishing!

[ZappaFan]

A healthy D.Wade = Heat in finals & Det gone fishing!

Wrong. It was the role players choking that lost that game, not D Wade's health. It was bonehead plays by Damon Jones down the stretch and the disappearance of Eddie Jones that lost that game.

[Experiment2100]

Wrong. It was the role players choking that lost that game, not D Wade's health. It was bonehead plays by Damon Jones down the stretch and the disappearance of Eddie Jones that lost that game.

That I have to agree with, their role players sucked give me a break Haslem And the Jones bros. were all overrated. I was just hoping that the Spurs could expose them as craptacular.

[td4mvp3]

i'm not so sure. wade went for 40, 36, 28 and 15 in the games before and during the injury, then just 20 in the last one. the 15 points was the game he got hurt in. there's no argument that the role players sucked pretty badly, but there's also a good chance that wade goes for 30 based on his previous numbers. tayshaun didn't seem to bother him too much after game one (40 points) and getting 20 after having a syringe in your chest is impressive. i'd give it to the heat if wade's healthy.

[Solid D]

The devil really has gotten to you SpursWoman. That chainsaw, head-lopping murderer avatar is sick.

[SpursWoman]

The devil made that avatar. :lol



The devil really has gotten to you SpursWoman.



And I'm not touching that with a 10 foot pole.... :lol :nerd

[spur219]

I said all along since last year that it was a mistake signing Rasho. Now the Spurs will probably try to trade him in the offseason and sign Nazr to an extension. But the problem is no one is going to want Rasho with that fat contract.

[MiNuS]

I saw the MIA-DET game 7 and it really was a toss-up until the last 3 minutes.


The Beer Tossers won!

[Solid D]

I saw the MIA-DET game 7 and it really was a toss-up until the last 3 minutes.


The Beer Tossers won!

It was a toss-up with under a minute left, in fact.

[admack]

Why the Pistons will repeat as champs
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DIME Magazine / Dime Magazine
Posted: 2 hours ago




Allen Iverson piled up points, but they had an answer for the Answer. Reggie Miller drained clutch jumpers, but they forced him into early retirement. Shaq and Flash were powerful and full of grace, but they trudged off their home court, heads hung in disgrace. No matter what's thrown at them, the Detroit Pistons win basketball games. "It's what we do," says Rip Hamilton.
The other side




They're deeper, they have home-court advantage ... see the entire case for why the Spurs will win another championship. Full story...


Joe Dumars echoed that same statement on national TV last night while accepting the Eastern Conference Finals trophy on behalf of the team. And why shouldn't he? The team he assembled in his spitting image is the reigning NBA champ and is steamrolling into The Finals after a monumental Game 7 victory in enemy territory. Dumars is the best executive in the league and did an excellent job carefully crafting a squad filled with the characteristics that made him a two-time champion and will make this Pistons team two-time champs as well.


A former Finals MVP, Dumars was an All-NBA defender, an explosive scorer, a true leader and one of the classiest men to ever don a uniform despite being a key cog on a team nicknamed the "Bad Boys." He defined playing the game "the right way" — the Pistons' current mantra that Larry Brown has made famous over the past two years. (If he's smart, Brown will trademark the catch phrase like Pat Riley did with "three-peat.") Dumars knew that Brown was the perfect teacher to properly guide this crew to the promised land in the way he intended.


Another year in Brown's system, and an NBA-high 1,367 minutes played together this season, has rounded the starting five from a collection of individuals into one super-unit hell-bent on winning basketball games at all costs. It's like the Pistons are a basketball-playing Voltron. The Pistons are unique because each starter is capable of taking over the game at any given time. The fact that Brown has them believing they're always the underdog just adds another log on the fire.





Kahn: Pistons show character
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Photos ...
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Rip Hamilton is a deadly assassin armed with a lethal J and was the team's top scorer in each of the last six games. Bruce Bowen will likely be the one charged with guarding Rip, but he won't be as annoyingly effective as he usually is. Since Rip relies on interference to free up space to launch his shots, Bowen's one-on-one defensive skills won't be utilized often. Plus, with his Vanilla Sky-looking mask, Rip operates with an air of invincibility and isn't afraid to attempt the tough shot. Balling with Jordan for those couple of years in D.C. seems to have paid off.


Sharing the backcourt is the defending Finals MVP Chauncey Billups. Those MVP awards don't grow on trees you know. Billups will be back in the hunt for another trophy because of the ice water pulsating through his veins. He's a clutch shooter who drains 3s with aplomb and converts free throws at a ridiculous 89.8 percent clip. He'll exploit his matchup with Tony Parker by dominating Le Petit Point in the post with his size and strength advantage. If he's doubled down by a big man, Billups will find the cutter or kick it out to Rasheed Wallace, who can drain the open look from anywhere. While Wallace isn't dominant in the post, it's his ability to step outside and draw Tim Duncan away from the hoop that makes this inside-out offense effective. When 'Sheed is locked in, drop to your knees and pray.


Ben Wallace, the defensive MVP, is the anchor for an air-tight defense. Since he'll be guarding a non-scoring threat in Nazr Mohammad, expect the league's best off-the-ball defender to make life miserable for penetrating guards and to double-down on Tim Duncan. Speaking of suffocating D, good luck to the Spurs in getting around Tayshaun Prince's gangly arms. How sick is it that this guy's signature move is the blocked breakaway layup? He's also a highly skilled one-on-one player when he sets up shop on the right wing.


There's no letup when you tap into the reserves either. Lindsey Hunter is a pest with cagey veteran trade secrets while Carlos Arroyo can match Parker's quickness. Elden Campbell and Antonio McDyess are more than just 12 fouls to hack Duncan, though his streaky free-throw shooting (3-12 on May 30) paints a bulls-eye on his back. Did we mention yet that Duncan is playing on two bad wheels and admits his ankles won't be 100 percent till the summer?


While some would say Duncan has had time to rest, he's really just had time to rust. Once you're rolling in the playoffs, an eight-day layoff like this one can really sap your momentum.


Bruce Bowen won't keep Richard Hamilton from getting his looks. (J. Pat Carter / Associated Press)

Meanwhile, Motown is riding the Mo' Train into San Antonio. Winning on the road in the playoffs is tough, but the Pistons did it once in Philly and two times each against Indy and Miami, closing out both series on the road. They accomplished this by neutralizing the crowd and closing out quarters strongly, especially the fourth with Chauncey or Rip handling the rock. Considering that the pivotal game of the series — Game 5 — is in Detroit, this series may be over before it even starts.


You can also forget all the hubbub about Brown causing distractions for his team. If anything, knowing that this may be his swan song might inspire Detroit to send him off into the Cleveland sunset a winner.

You want to talk distractions? Try having hottie Eva Longoria of Desperate Housewives fame strutting around in some lingerie keeping Parker up late the night before a game.

Putting allusions to hot chicks aside, Detroit already overcame their biggest distraction in the Indiana series with the brawl being rehashed by the media 24/7. Imagine how the players felt in that series and ask yourself if a rumor about their coach is going to sway their mental focus.


Remember, they have championship belts to defend in that squared circle, er, on the hardwood, and they will do so with convincing authority. Fundamentals will prevail over the Big Fundamental and the Pistons will again win the title.

It's what they do.
================================================== ======
How about those marbles! :fro Fear the fro :fro

[td4mvp3]

Why the Spurs will win

DIME Magazine / Dime Magazine
Posted: 15 hours ago



The Detroit Pistons are a very, very good basketball team. The San Antonio Spurs are better. It's as simple as that.


The Spurs will win another championship because they are better offensively. They are better defensively. They are a deeper team, they have home court and most importantly, they have the series' best player in Tim Duncan.

Pistons fans are undoubtedly talking their best game, predicting a successful defense of their title because, as we've been annoyingly browbeaten with, "it's what they do," and they do it "the right way."

And let them celebrate.

They just vanquished Shaq Diesel and Dwyane Wade. They ended Reggie Miller's career and they had an answer for A.I. But when you navigate your way through the bravado and the sea of fake championship belts, deep down they all really know the deal. Show us a rational Pistons fan and we'll show you someone who will admit that their team is a poor man's version of the San Antonio Spurs.


The calling card for both teams is stingy defense. Shutting down opponents is how they won all season. Both squads play tremendous individual and team defense, but San Antonio is superior to Detroit in almost every way. The stats don't lie. In the playoffs, the Spurs have bested Detroit in points allowed, field goal percentage, field goals made, 3-point percentage, blocks per game, steals and all rebounding categories. Their statistical dominance over Detroit is almost as sound in the regular season as well.

Now realize that the Spurs did that in the Western Conference, running against high-powered teams in the playoffs like the Suns, Sonics and Nuggets.


If Detroit hopes to avoid a sweep, the first thing they have to do is try to keep Tony Parker out of the lane. He is murder on teams when they let him penetrate. Once in the paint, Parker can get to the hoop, drop it off to Tim Duncan, or kick out to a 3-point shooter on the wing. Chauncey Billups will most likely start on Parker, but Chauncey is a bigger guard and doesn't necessarily have the foot speed to keep up with smaller, speedy players. Allen Iverson went bananas against Detroit because he was able to blow by Billups over and over again. Parker is the only player in the NBA who can rival Iverson in quickness.

Richard Hamilton will most likely be guarded by Bruce Bowen. In the Sonics series, Bowen frustrated and antagonized a similar player in Ray Allen, keeping him in relative check. Hamilton is nice, but we're pretty sure no one will be mistaking him for Jesus Shuttlesworth any time soon. True, the Pistons will be running Rip through his seemingly never-ending wicket of screens and curls, but this is what Bowen lives for. He doesn't mind the contact and if Hamilton does get a step on him, San Antonio's help D is good enough to buy Bowen time to recover.

On the other end, whoever is guarding Bowen is always tempted to ignore him. Time and time again though, Bruce makes teams pay by drilling that open corner 3-pointer. And have you noticed lately that he's been sticking treys from other spots and running the floor more than ever?


Another player that will be in Rip's face is Manu Ginobili, who has evolved into a superstar this season. Larry Brown would like to keep that matchup to a minimum though, because Manu is San Antonio's second-best perimeter defender and there's no way Rip can physically handle him on D. Ginobili flaunts a Parker-like ability to get into the lane, flowing mullet and all, virtually unscathed. He decimated the Suns by carving them up and getting to the rim anytime he pleased. Tayshaun Prince will be draped all over Manu for the vast majority of the series, hoping to use his length to keep Ginobili out of the paint. We're not sure anyone can do that right now though. There might not be a player in the NBA with more confidence than Manu.


As you look to the frontcourt matchups, much will be made over the next two days about Tim Duncan's sore ankles and how they will affect his game. Will they? Doubt it. All of these guys are pros; they play through pain every single night. Duncan is the best big man in the world. We would take him 100 times out of 100 against the Pistons' frontcourt. The Wallaces are obviously great defenders, but this is Duncan's time to shine. Ben and 'Sheed best get ready for a heaping dose of turnaround jumpers in their mugs. There's only so much you can do against Duncan. No matter what, he's gonna get his.


San Antonio has been pleasantly surprised with Nazr Mohammed's play during the stretch run and throughout the playoffs. He defends, he rebounds, and maybe most importantly, like all Spurs big men, he's mobile enough to hedge defensively on pick-and-rolls — a key to their dominance over all three of their playoff opponents thus far. The only time they had issues defending screen and rolls was when Amare Stoudemire was running them and there's no shame in that. If the Spurs couldn't stop him, no one could.


San Antonio's bench is stronger as well. Brent Barry, Beno Udrih and Robert Horry can all step in and there is no let up whatsoever. Detroit counters with Lindsey Hunter and Elden Campbell. Do you feel sick yet, Pistons fans? If not yet, close your eyes and imagine slews of dagger 3s being slung by "Bones" and "Big Shot Bob." There are just no answers anywhere for the Pistons.


The only advantage Detroit could possibly have is in the coaching department. But Larry Brown's antics over the past three weeks have made that a wash. And don't sleep on Gregg Popovich. The guy has two rings to Brown's one. (As if Brown's act wasn't irritating enough, get ready for endless stories about how Brown and Pop are best friends and how they talk on the phone every day).


Somewhere, a Pistons fan is reading this saying, "But Duncan can't make foul shots in the clutch!" Save it. He did have that one miserable foul shooting game against the Suns where he went 3-12 from the stripe, but on the whole, he's shot better from the line in each of the three series (73.3%, 72.5% and 75.0%, respectively) than he did during the regular season (67.0%). He'll stick them when it counts. And besides, if that's what you're holding onto as a ray of light, you're in trouble.


Put away the belts until next year, kids. The Spurs win in five.