SenorSpur
05-02-2011, 03:31 PM
Who could die by the 3?
The Spurs and Magic already died by the 3; now others could fall if the 3 doesn't
By Kevin Pelton
Basketball Prospectus
The two upset victims during the first round of the NBA playoffs share a common thread: love of the 3-point shot. The Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs, who both lost in six games last week, ranked atop the league in 3-point attempts and 3-point percentage, respectively. Yet both teams struggled to maintain that kind of perimeter attack in their playoff series, leading to early exits from the postseason.
Orlando's power outage from beyond the arc started with Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia. Because the Atlanta Hawks' two centers were able to hold Dwight Howard in check without double-team help, the Hawks could stay at home on the Magic's perimeter shooters and contest their long-distance attempts. Howard had just three assists in six games. While he has never racked up dimes, more than half of the 1.4 assists Howard averaged during the regular season led to 3-pointers, per Hoopdata.com.
Unable to play inside-out through Howard, Orlando could only generate 3-point attempts through the pick-and-roll game. It's no coincidence that the one game the Magic shot better than 30 percent on 3s (11-of-26, 42.3 percent in Game Five) was also the one where early foul trouble kept Howard from being a major part of the Orlando offense.
All told, the Magic had the edge in every facet of the series with Atlanta save 3-point shooting. Orlando made a dramatically better percentage of 2-point attempts, got more offensive rebounds, got to the free throw line more often and turned the ball over less frequently, yet still lost. It was only fitting that the Magic had opportunities to force overtime in Games 4 and 6 with late 3-pointers and missed both times.
The Memphis Grizzlies' victory over the Spurs was an even greater triumph of 3-point defense. San Antonio's 39.7 percent accuracy beyond the arc during the regular season was the 14th-best shooting season in NBA history, but the Spurs shot worse than 30 percent (29.4 percent, to be exact) during the series with Memphis. San Antonio's offense is intended to create 3-point attempts in a variety of different ways, so the Grizzlies had to be attentive to multiple shooters at all times. Lionel Hollins and assistant Dave Joerger designed a system that would allow Memphis to do that without sacrificing other facets of the team's defense.
Amazingly, not a single Spurs player shot even league average (35.3 percent) from 3-point range during the series with the Grizzlies. Role players Matt Bonner, Richard Jefferson and Gary Neal, all among the NBA's top 12 3-point shooters during the regular season (Bonner led the league), saw particularly troublesome power outages form beyond the arc.
The temptation here is to conclude that an offense heavy on 3-point attempts is problematic in the postseason. Based on a longer sample of postseason history, that would be an overstatement. As recently as two years ago, the Magic reached the NBA Finals with an offense that relied more on the 3-pointer than any other in the league. Even more recently, the Phoenix Suns unexpectedly reached the Western Conference Finals last spring with 3-point statistics highly similar to this year's Spurs' offense (Phoenix ranked fifth in 3s as a percentage of all shot attempts, but led the league by shooting 41.2 percent from beyond the arc). Overall, teams that shoot many 3s have largely performed as expected in the playoffs based on their seed and regular-season statistics.
In general, the 3-pointer has become critical to effective modern NBA offenses. Seven of the teams that ranked in the league's top 10 in 3-point attempts as a percentage of all shot attempts also boasted top-10 offensive ratings. Not only are 3s an efficient weapon in their own right because of the high percentages players now achieve beyond the arc, an attack that features the 3-pointer spaces the floor and creates opportunities for players to post up and create off the dribble.
None of that changes during the postseason, certainly. But the fate of Orlando and San Antonio may highlight the equally critical nature of 3-point defense. Of the NBA's 10 best teams at defending the 3, only the Milwaukee Bucks failed to reach the playoffs -- and that was because of an anemic offense, as Milwaukee ranked fourth in the league in defensive rating.
During the regular season, Atlanta allowed opponents the league's fourth-lowest 3-point percentage, so the Hawks' strong 3-point defense against the Magic should have come as no surprise. The Grizzlies' success is more netewothy, since Memphis was actually one of the NBA's worst teams at defending the 3 all season long. Opponents shot 36.9 percent from beyond the arc against the Grizzlies, putting them 24th in the league. With the opportunity to game plan for a specific opponent over a short series, however, Memphis was able to reverse that trend.
Who else might be vulnerable? Surprisingly, just one of the NBA's top nine teams in terms of relative 3-point attempts remains in the playoffs. That's the Dallas Mavericks, who ranked third behind Orlando and the New York Knicks. The Mavericks had no problems beyond the arc in knocking off the Portland Trail Blazers during the first round, ranking third among playoff teams in 3-point percentage and second in offensive rating.
The Los Angeles Lakers figure to present Dallas a far greater perimeter challenge. Thanks to their length and ability to play one-on-one defense at most positions without requiring help, the Lakers held opponents to 33.5 percent shooting beyond the arc, good for third in the league. Though the Mavericks' offense is diverse enough to survive a drop in 3-point percentage, they will probably need to find their outside touch to pull off the upset in this series.
As for Orlando and San Antonio, as both teams seek to regroup after unexpected losses, it makes little sense to overreact to six games' worth of bad 3-point shooting. Offenses built around the longball have taken both the Magic and the Spurs to great heights, and the appropriate remedy is to tweak things to find answers when the 3s aren't dropping, not a total overhaul.
The Spurs and Magic already died by the 3; now others could fall if the 3 doesn't
By Kevin Pelton
Basketball Prospectus
The two upset victims during the first round of the NBA playoffs share a common thread: love of the 3-point shot. The Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs, who both lost in six games last week, ranked atop the league in 3-point attempts and 3-point percentage, respectively. Yet both teams struggled to maintain that kind of perimeter attack in their playoff series, leading to early exits from the postseason.
Orlando's power outage from beyond the arc started with Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia. Because the Atlanta Hawks' two centers were able to hold Dwight Howard in check without double-team help, the Hawks could stay at home on the Magic's perimeter shooters and contest their long-distance attempts. Howard had just three assists in six games. While he has never racked up dimes, more than half of the 1.4 assists Howard averaged during the regular season led to 3-pointers, per Hoopdata.com.
Unable to play inside-out through Howard, Orlando could only generate 3-point attempts through the pick-and-roll game. It's no coincidence that the one game the Magic shot better than 30 percent on 3s (11-of-26, 42.3 percent in Game Five) was also the one where early foul trouble kept Howard from being a major part of the Orlando offense.
All told, the Magic had the edge in every facet of the series with Atlanta save 3-point shooting. Orlando made a dramatically better percentage of 2-point attempts, got more offensive rebounds, got to the free throw line more often and turned the ball over less frequently, yet still lost. It was only fitting that the Magic had opportunities to force overtime in Games 4 and 6 with late 3-pointers and missed both times.
The Memphis Grizzlies' victory over the Spurs was an even greater triumph of 3-point defense. San Antonio's 39.7 percent accuracy beyond the arc during the regular season was the 14th-best shooting season in NBA history, but the Spurs shot worse than 30 percent (29.4 percent, to be exact) during the series with Memphis. San Antonio's offense is intended to create 3-point attempts in a variety of different ways, so the Grizzlies had to be attentive to multiple shooters at all times. Lionel Hollins and assistant Dave Joerger designed a system that would allow Memphis to do that without sacrificing other facets of the team's defense.
Amazingly, not a single Spurs player shot even league average (35.3 percent) from 3-point range during the series with the Grizzlies. Role players Matt Bonner, Richard Jefferson and Gary Neal, all among the NBA's top 12 3-point shooters during the regular season (Bonner led the league), saw particularly troublesome power outages form beyond the arc.
The temptation here is to conclude that an offense heavy on 3-point attempts is problematic in the postseason. Based on a longer sample of postseason history, that would be an overstatement. As recently as two years ago, the Magic reached the NBA Finals with an offense that relied more on the 3-pointer than any other in the league. Even more recently, the Phoenix Suns unexpectedly reached the Western Conference Finals last spring with 3-point statistics highly similar to this year's Spurs' offense (Phoenix ranked fifth in 3s as a percentage of all shot attempts, but led the league by shooting 41.2 percent from beyond the arc). Overall, teams that shoot many 3s have largely performed as expected in the playoffs based on their seed and regular-season statistics.
In general, the 3-pointer has become critical to effective modern NBA offenses. Seven of the teams that ranked in the league's top 10 in 3-point attempts as a percentage of all shot attempts also boasted top-10 offensive ratings. Not only are 3s an efficient weapon in their own right because of the high percentages players now achieve beyond the arc, an attack that features the 3-pointer spaces the floor and creates opportunities for players to post up and create off the dribble.
None of that changes during the postseason, certainly. But the fate of Orlando and San Antonio may highlight the equally critical nature of 3-point defense. Of the NBA's 10 best teams at defending the 3, only the Milwaukee Bucks failed to reach the playoffs -- and that was because of an anemic offense, as Milwaukee ranked fourth in the league in defensive rating.
During the regular season, Atlanta allowed opponents the league's fourth-lowest 3-point percentage, so the Hawks' strong 3-point defense against the Magic should have come as no surprise. The Grizzlies' success is more netewothy, since Memphis was actually one of the NBA's worst teams at defending the 3 all season long. Opponents shot 36.9 percent from beyond the arc against the Grizzlies, putting them 24th in the league. With the opportunity to game plan for a specific opponent over a short series, however, Memphis was able to reverse that trend.
Who else might be vulnerable? Surprisingly, just one of the NBA's top nine teams in terms of relative 3-point attempts remains in the playoffs. That's the Dallas Mavericks, who ranked third behind Orlando and the New York Knicks. The Mavericks had no problems beyond the arc in knocking off the Portland Trail Blazers during the first round, ranking third among playoff teams in 3-point percentage and second in offensive rating.
The Los Angeles Lakers figure to present Dallas a far greater perimeter challenge. Thanks to their length and ability to play one-on-one defense at most positions without requiring help, the Lakers held opponents to 33.5 percent shooting beyond the arc, good for third in the league. Though the Mavericks' offense is diverse enough to survive a drop in 3-point percentage, they will probably need to find their outside touch to pull off the upset in this series.
As for Orlando and San Antonio, as both teams seek to regroup after unexpected losses, it makes little sense to overreact to six games' worth of bad 3-point shooting. Offenses built around the longball have taken both the Magic and the Spurs to great heights, and the appropriate remedy is to tweak things to find answers when the 3s aren't dropping, not a total overhaul.