daaamn....oil down $11 a barrel?

[CosmicCowboy]

looks like the speculator sheep are all running for the door at the same time...

[RandomGuy]

Taking gold with it.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

I can't wait to see gold plummet, like it eventually must.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

And I thought "what goes up, must come down" was an ancient Chinese secret.

Uf, Mi madré :depressed

[MannyIsGod]

Its May. You know that shit is going back up soon. Libya or not, I would be extremely shocked to see the peak in price this year to come before the summer months.

[CosmicCowboy]

I dunno Manny. Did you see the economic news today...jobs, unemployment, etc? Some bad juju there.

[coyotes_geek]

Neither oil or gold are getting hit as hard as silver.

[jack sommerset]

This is going to be the price pretty much the rest of the year. It may go down again in September but families should feel free to budget their gas bills for the summer, the oil companies did. I know the oil biz.

[DMX7]

Obama working his witchcraft?

[Wild Cobra]

And I thought "what goes up, must come down" was an ancient Chinese secret.

Uf, Mi madré :depressed
More bubbles to burst.

[Wild Cobra]

Speculators cannot maintain a high price. Only supply and demand can do that. As I said before, speculators have a limited effect on prices.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

It will hang out or trend slightly lower for the next 2-3 months now that Quantitative Easing 2 has ended.

Give the economy 3-4 months of continuing to tank, and the Fed will print another trillion to prop it up in QE3, and we'll watch oil hit $150/barrel, silver go to $60, and gold to go to $2K.

[Wild Cobra]

It will hang out or trend slightly lower for the next 2-3 months now that Quantitative Easing 2 has ended.

Give the economy 3-4 months of continuing to tank, and the Fed will print another trillion to prop it up in QE3, and we'll watch oil hit $150/barrel, silver go to $60, and gold to go to $2K.
Now this I cannot argue against.

[RandomGuy]

Now this I cannot argue against.

You can do it, if you try!

[boutons_deux]

"Speculators cannot maintain a high price"

They don't need to maintain a high price, only to buy low, drive the price (way) up, profit-take, and get out. They can also casino-bet on the price drops, stop speculating, and take profits on the way down.

[Wild Cobra]

"Speculators cannot maintain a high price"

They don't need to maintain a high price, only to buy low, drive the price (way) up, profit-take, and get out. They can also casino-bet on the price drops, stop speculating, and take profits on the way down.
But that's a risky game. A real speculator will buy low when they see cause for the price to rise. Seems to me that trying to artificially make the price rise is far more dangerous than they like.

[boutons_deux]

"that's a risky game"

bullshit. we aren't talking about Joe Blow day trader on his PC, but speculators able to buy with $100s or $Bs, essentially making their own wave, a unregulated, secretive pump-and-dump.

[Wild Cobra]

I don't think you know what you are talking about Boutons.What about market share? If one group of speculators buys a large lot of oil and drives uop the price, they have to sell it more mare than they paid to profit. Unless they conspire to buy nearly all the oil, others are now underselling them, and they are sitting on a probable oss of money when they sell it.

Are you suggesting they are so organized that this is a conspiracy?

[CosmicCowboy]

WC...think of it as a game of musical chairs played by a bunch of wall street banks and hedge funds. They know the music is gonna stop eventually and when the music stops someone is gonna get fucked and they all hire really smart guys and build complicated computer trading schemes to make sure it's not them. Its just a high stakes poker game to them. They could give a shit about the damage they do to the economy with higher commodity prices.

[boutons_deux]

"so organized that this is a conspiracy"

of course it is. the financial sector is one big scam. With the financial sector, the presumption is ALWAYS guilty, innocent.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

More bubbles to burst.

Ah. You know the ancient Chinese secret, too. :tu

[RandomGuy]

Speculators cannot maintain a high price. Only supply and demand can do that. As I said before, speculators have a limited effect on prices.

With the amount of money flowing into derivatives based on commodities of one sort or another, I am not so sure.

Imagine you want to maintain a position for the long run in commodities. You go out and buy some futures or some derivate that ultimately holds futures. At some point, those futures mature, and to maintain your position, you must then sell them, and roll over.

This adds a lot of artifical demand by people who never intend on taking ownership of the commodity.

As you roll forward, not only do you have increases in underlying demand from normal economic growth, you get additional demand from this phenomenon.

Until such time as the money decides to leave the commodity. Then you get a sharp downward shock.

[RandomGuy]

WC...think of it as a game of musical chairs played by a bunch of wall street banks and hedge funds. They know the music is gonna stop eventually and when the music stops someone is gonna get fucked and they all hire really smart guys and build complicated computer trading schemes to make sure it's not them. Its just a high stakes poker game to them. They could give a shit about the damage they do to the economy with higher commodity prices.

That reminds me of the Really Smart Guys in the short bit:

The Subprime Primer (the mortgage crisis explained by stick figures) (https://docs.google.com/present/view?skipauth=true&pli=1&id=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn)