The Flood Worry No One Is Mentioning.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm not sure how many of you are familiar with the Old River Control Structure but there's a link to give you brief view:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_River_Control_Structure

Basically, its a system of damns and river control devices meant to keep the Mississippi flowing in its current channel instead of switching over the the channel known as the Atchafalya river. If it switches over New Orleans and Baton Rogue all of a sudden become much different cities.

In any event, the entire structure came extremely close to failing in 1973 during a massive flood. They didn't realize just how lucky they were until after the flood when they discovered that the water nearly scoured out the filling underneath the structures which would have basically swept them away and ended any control we had there. Had that happened the Mississippi would have switched channels and it would not have been able to be moved back. I'm pretty sure if that happened today we'd still be screwed.

They've ha big floods since 73 but none as big as that flood until now. This is going to be a lot like that flood and yet I've seen nothing in the news about this structure. This flood has the potential to completely fuck over shipping on the Mississippi so I'm pretty shocked there's no news on this.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.americaswetlandresources.com/background_facts/detailedstory/LouisianaRiverControl.html

Thats some more information on the system and how it almost failed.

[Drachen]

I think that New Orleans should really get the hint that God hates them.

[CosmicCowboy]

Thanks for the interesting link Manny!

[Drachen]

Thanks for the interesting link Manny!


Yeah, I honestly should have made my sarcastic (but true) remark AFTER I thanked Manny. It really is interesting.

[CuckingFunt]

I know that they opened the Bonnet Carre spillway (mentioned in Manny's link) yesterday morning, but other than that the local news has been relatively quiet on the subject.

[boutons_deux]

I have ultimate, unshakable confidence in the US Corps of Engineers.

[MannyIsGod]

I know that they opened the Bonnet Carre spillway (mentioned in Manny's link) yesterday morning, but other than that the local news has been relatively quiet on the subject.

They are probably going to open the other mentioned as well and that one has only been opened twice I believe. I'm surprised the media down there isn't saying much because this is a pretty fucking huge flood and its all flowing downstream.

[TeyshaBlue]

I hear conflicting reports on when that thing's gonna crest. Some say today @ 48 feet. Last night I was hearing maybe in another 6 days.

[CosmicCowboy]

I hear conflicting reports on when that thing's gonna crest. Some say today @ 48 feet. Last night I was hearing maybe in another 6 days.

I heard the same thing...today @ 48.

[MannyIsGod]

I take it back, the Morganza spillway has only been opened one time and that was 1973.

[MannyIsGod]

I hear conflicting reports on when that thing's gonna crest. Some say today @ 48 feet. Last night I was hearing maybe in another 6 days.

Well it depends on where on the river you are talking about. I think the crest for Memphis will be today or has already happened. The further down you go the river the longer it will take.

[CosmicCowboy]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/us/11river.html


But that is not likely to be enough, and corps officials have requested permission from the Mississippi River Commission, a federal advisory agency, to open the Morganza spillway in Louisiana. That spillway has been opened only once, in 1973, and even a partial opening would result in widespread flooding that would affect thousands of people in parts of southern Louisiana.

“It’s not a light decision,” said Bob Anderson, a corps spokesman, adding that certain measurements on the river would determine if and when the opening should take place. But, he said, “it’s the way the system was designed.”

[Cry Havoc]

Katrina part 2 in the works. :depressed

[CuckingFunt]

They are probably going to open the other mentioned as well and that one has only been opened twice I believe. I'm surprised the media down there isn't saying much because this is a pretty fucking huge flood and its all flowing downstream.

Actually, since posting that I checked the Times Picayune and confirmed that the river is getting quite a bit of attention there. Didn't think of it immediately because I haven't gotten back in the habit of reading the newspaper since the semester ended.

[MannyIsGod]

According to Jeff Masters the crest at Red River Landing is being forecast at 3 feet above the record. Thats a bit south of the Old River Control Structure.



Mississippi River crests at Memphis: 2nd highest flood on record
The Mississippi River has crested at Memphis, Tennessee this morning, reaching the 2nd highest level on record. The flood height of 47.79' was just below the all-time record height of 48.7' set in the great 1937 flood. Fortunately, the levees constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers are much taller and stronger than was the case 74 years ago, and the mainline Mississippi River levees are expected to hold back this record flood and prevent a multi-billion dollar flood disaster. However, flooding on tributaries feeding into the Mississippi is severe in many locations along the Mississippi, since the tremendous volume of water confined behind the levees is backing up into the tributaries.

Downstream from Memphis, flood waters pouring in from the Arkansas River, Yazoo River, and other tributaries are expected to swell the Mississippi high enough to beat the all-time record at Vicksburg, Mississippi by 1.3' on May 19, by 6' at Natchez, Mississippi on May 21, and by 3.2' at Red River Landing on May 22. The Mississippi is forecast to crest at 19.5' in New Orleans on May 23. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet, so it is a good bet that the Army Corps will fully open the Bonnet Carre' Spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans this week. The Bonnet Carre' Spillway was partially opened yesterday, and has the capacity to take 250,000 cubic feet per second of Mississippi River water into Lake Pontchartrain. This may not be enough to keep flood heights from rising dangerously close to the top of New Orleans' levees, and the Army Corps may elect to open the final relief valve they have at their disposal--the massive Morganza Spillway, 35 miles upstream from Baton Rouge. The Morganza Spillway has been opened only once in history, back in 1973. Rainfall amounts of at most 0.75 inches are expected over the Lower Mississippi River watershed over the next five days, which should prevent flood heights from rising above the current forecast.

[TeyshaBlue]

Katrina part 2 in the works. :depressed

Surely not....:depressed

Maybe FEMA should start camping out down there now.

[MannyIsGod]

Katrina part 2 in the works. :depressed

Not likely. The urban areas are extremely well protected. This likely won't kill many people if anyone, but its going to cause a lot of damage to crops, fisheries, and cattle (especially when they open Morganza). But if the control structure fails then you will be looking at a huge economic disaster.

[CuckingFunt]

Katrina part 2 in the works. :depressed

Uh, yeah... fingers crossed that isn't the case.

I'm really hoping the fact it has been, so far, unusually dry down here will help to prevent that. We haven't had rain in weeks.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh the amount of rain you've missed on isn't going to matter a bit to be quite honest. This is water from melted snow pack in the midwest. Every drop of water that falls in the ohio river an Mississippi watersheds eventually makes its way down the river through Louisiana to the Gulf of Mexico. They've also had the wettest April on record through the Midwest so while the lack of rain you've had is good its basically like having someone shoot you in the heart instead of your head.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.d.umn.edu/~seawww/art/quickart/mississippiwatershed.gif

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2011/apr2011_precip.gif

That image is just the rainfall received in April and not the snow pack through the winter. This flood was predicted and expected months ago but its been worse because of the April rain.

[CosmicCowboy]

Not likely. The urban areas are extremely well protected. This likely won't kill many people if anyone, but its going to cause a lot of damage to crops, fisheries, and cattle (especially when they open Morganza). But if the control structure fails then you will be looking at a huge economic disaster.

It's cutting it close...the levee at New Orleans is 20' and they are predicting 19.5' rise at NO. Hope they have all the nutria holes plugged.

[CuckingFunt]

Oh the amount of rain you've missed on isn't going to matter a bit to be quite honest. This is water from melted snow pack in the midwest. Every drop of water that falls in the ohio river an Mississippi watersheds eventually makes its way down the river through Louisiana to the Gulf of Mexico. They've also had the wettest April on record through the Midwest so while the lack of rain you've had is good its basically like having someone shoot you in the heart instead of your head.

But... that's something, right? I'm well aware that local rainfall has fuck all to do with the immediate concerns, hence the fact the rising levels have been working their way downriver from several states away, but heavy rains and a high water table are enough to make minor flooding a pretty regular occurrence here in the spring/summer and it's good to not also have that.

Ultimately, I'm not terribly concerned that this will actually turn into another Katrina. For one thing, that moment stands out because it doesn't happen every day. Despite an admittedly questionable geographic location (especially the newer parts of the city, which are actually below sea level) and the long history of governmental/corporate destruction of the features that act as the city's natural protection, much of New Orleans has survived in tact for a number of centuries. For another thing, as Manny said, the urban area is pretty well protected by levees, pumps, canals, and various other structures that (fingers crossed) now actually work the way they're intended. Biggest concern is how this will affect land that is currently being used for farming. After Katrina and BP, the last fucking thing New Orleans needs is the deterioration of yet another form of industry.

[MannyIsGod]

A lot of farmland is fucked in the short term. In the long term the flooding is a good thing, but not this year.

[ManuBalboa]

Can Texas haz sum of that water?

[Trainwreck2100]

even arizona is laughing at us

[Wild Cobra]

I have little sympathy for those who buy residential or business property in a flood plain.

As for the farm land, flooding usually makes it better for future crops.

[CosmicCowboy]

I have little sympathy for those who buy residential or business property in a flood plain.

As for the farm land, flooding usually makes it better for future crops.

This is no ordinary flood WC. And they could probably care less whether you sympathize with them. There will be flooding dozens of miles from the river when they pop that second flood control dam. Thats an action of last resort..admitting they would rather fuck the rural people than the urban people...

[coyotes_geek]

I have little sympathy for those who buy residential or business property in a flood plain.

They're called poor people and there's a reason they bought there.

Also, this flood far exceeds any event around which flood plain boundaries get established. The bitch about trying to design against Mother Nature is that she's always capable of coming up with a bigger event than the one you planned for. That holds true whether we're talking about floods along the Mississippi, earthquakes in California or Tsunamis in Japan.

[Lizard_King]

And?

[Wild Cobra]

They're called poor people and there's a reason they bought there.

Also, this flood far exceeds any event around which flood plain boundaries get established. The bitch about trying to design against Mother Nature is that she's always capable of coming up with a bigger event than the one you planned for. That holds true whether we're talking about floods along the Mississippi, earthquakes in California or Tsunamis in Japan.
Poor people buying rather than renting?

As for exceeding flood boundaries, I say bullshit. I'm sure geological records would disagree with you.

Nature has cycles. Some long, some short. Never feel assured when someone says "don't worry about it, it's a 1500 year cycle."

Really now... Is anywhere 50 ft. and closer to a waterline safe from long cycle flooding? I say only a fool believes such.

[Wild Cobra]

This is no ordinary flood WC. And they could probably care less whether you sympathize with them. There will be flooding dozens of miles from the river when they pop that second flood control dam. Thats an action of last resort..admitting they would rather fuck the rural people than the urban people...
Miles away is how high above the normal water line?

My God man... Look at the size of the area that drains into these waterways.

Though rare, it is a known flood plain.

[baseline bum]

I have no sympathy for anyone buying homes in the western or central US in the path of death from the Yellowstone supervolcano.



I have no sympathy for anyone buying homes on the Eastern seaboard in the path of the megatsunami that will come when La Palma falls into the ocean.

[clambake]

i have no sympathy for the women and children i want to kill

[Wild Cobra]

I have no sympathy for anyone buying homes in the western or central US in the path of death from the Yellowstone supervolcano.



I have no sympathy for anyone buying homes on the Eastern seaboard in the path of the megatsunami that will come when La Palma falls into the ocean.

That's a clear exaggeration. No wonder you are often wrong. maybe you should line up more facts. Yellowstone is never expected to erupt like it did before. I'll bet if it does, it will likely be when the earths orbit around the sun increases in eccentricity again. That's a good 50k years or so. Tidal forces play havok. The eastern seaboard is not in the Ring of Fire.

[baseline bum]

That's a clear exaggeration. No wonder you are often wrong. maybe you should line up more facts. Yellowstone is never expected to erupt like it did before. I'll bet if it does, it will likely be when the earths orbit around the sun increases in eccentricity again. That's a good 50k years or so. Tidal forces play havok. The eastern seaboard is not in the Ring of Fire.

:lol The Yellowstone supervolcano is on a 600,000 year cycle and it has been almost 600,000 years. The tsunami that'll wipe out the eastern seaboard won't be caused directly by an earthquake like the one that wiped out Sendai; it'll be the landslide from half of the island of La Palma falling into the ocean after an earthquake, and the tsunami will be hundreds of feet high.

[baseline bum]

i have no sympathy for the women and children i want to kill

[Wild Cobra]

Hey guys, I just quoted Clambake's slander.

Ain't I cool!
So you're going to be a pathetic ass to top it off...

[baseline bum]

He had a good point.

[Wild Cobra]

He had a good point.
My my...

What a twisted mind you both have.

[CuckingFunt]

My my...

What a twisted mind you both have.

My mind is not quite so twisted.



I don't think you actively want to kill the women and children in the affected areas. I just think maybe you don't care so much if they die.

[Wild Cobra]

:lol The Yellowstone supervolcano is on a 600,000 year cycle and it has been almost 600,000 years. The tsunami that'll wipe out the eastern seaboard won't be caused directly by an earthquake like the one that wiped out Sendai; it'll be the landslide from half of the island of La Palma falling into the ocean after an earthquake, and the tsunami will be hundreds of feet high.
Your problem with the supervolcano idea is that the tidal forces that are part of the equation are diminishing for the next 26k years. They need to be higher, not lower.

Rather than the low points for eccentricity, look at the high (green) points of this graph:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x262/Wild_Cobra/Global%20Warming/eccentricity.jpg

There was one about 600,000 years ago, another about 200,000 years. We won't be in that range of gravitational shearing for another 600,000 years, approximate. The one about 200,000 years from now won't be as intense as what caused that eruption, but I guess it's possible.

Before you say I'm wrong, I suggest you research how these tidal forces work with the rotation of the earth and proximity to the sun, and how eccentricity plays a role. The moon of course will play a role as it's eccentricity and relationship to the earth and sun have impact. Tidal forces not only affect the oceans, but the magma in the earth as well.

As for your Tsunami, I looked at what you're talking about. I thought you meant La Palma, CA at first, and that city is far inland.

The estimated wave is initially more that 80 meters at T+1 hr. in some places, but by the time it reached the Americas, it's about 13 meters max in North America, and 18 meters max at Brazil. It is also estimated that this well not occur for at least another 10,000+years.

The idea of that island collapsing is really remote, but yes. Possible. One article I read estimated it would take a volcanic force of 12,000 to 28,000 billion Newtons to make it happen.

Big difference when you look at probabilities. Neither the Tsunami, or volcano compare in any statistical sense to flooding we see of far shorter timelines.

[clambake]

My mind is not quite so twisted.



I don't think you actively want to kill the women and children in the affected areas. I just think maybe you don't care so much if they die.

he's more interested in killing women and children trying to cross the border...just because they're looking for a better life.

[MannyIsGod]

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/opinion-zone/2011/05/historic-flooding-wreaks-havoc-along-mississippi-river

Thats the first mention I've seen of it in the media. And I have no idea who that website or their source The Daily Impact is. I just find it weird this story has gained no traction.

[MannyIsGod]

Jeff Masters wrote about this today.


The Old River Control Structure's greatest test: the flood of 2011
Flow rates of the Mississippi at the latitude of the Old River Control Structure are expected to exceed the all-time record on Saturday, giving the Old River Control Structure its greatest test since the flood of 1973. Since there are now four structures to control the flooding instead of just the two that existed in 1973, the Old River Control Structure should be able to handle a much greater flow of water. The flood of 2011 is not as large as the maximum 1-in-500 year "Project Flood" that the Old River Control Structure was designed to handle, and the Army Corps of Engineers has expressed confidence that the structure can handle the current flood. However, the system has never been tested in these conditions before. This is a dangerous flood, and very high water levels are expected for many weeks. Unexpected flaws in the design of the Old River Control Structure may give it a few percent chance of failure under these sorts of unprecedented conditions. While I expect that the Old River Control Structure will indeed hold back the great flood of 2011, we also need to be concerned about the levees on either side of the structure. The levees near Old River Control Structure range from 71 - 74 feet high, and the flood is expected to crest at 65.5 feet on May 22. This is, in theory, plenty of levee to handle such a flood, but levees subjected to long periods of pressure can and do fail sometimes, and the Corps has to be super-careful to keep all the levees under constant surveillance and quickly move to repair sand boils or piping problems that might develop. Any failure of a levee on the west bank of the Mississippi could allow the river to jump its banks permanently and carve a new path to the Gulf of Mexico. I'll say more about the potential costs of such an event in a future post.

According to the latest information from the Army Corps the Old River Control Structure is currently passing 624,000 cubic feet per second of water, which is 1% beyond what is intended in a maximum "Project Flood." The flow rate of the Mississippi at New Orleans is at 100% of the maximum Project Flood. These are dangerous flow rates, and makes it likely that the Army Corps will open the Morganza Spillway in the next few days to take pressure off of the Old River Control Structure and New Orleans levees. Neither can be allowed to fail. In theory, the Old River Control Structure can be operated at 140% of a Project Flood, since there are now four control structures instead of just the two that existed in 1973 (flows rates of 300,000 cfs, 350,000 cfs, 320,000 cfs, and 170,000 cfs can go through the Low Sill, Auxiliary, Overbank, and Hydroelectric structures, respectively.) Apparently, the Corps is considering this, as evidenced by their Scenario #3 images they posted yesterday. This is a risky proposition, as the Old River Control Structure would be pushed to its absolute limit in this scenario. It would seem a lower risk proposition to open the Morganza spillway to divert up to 600,000 cfs, unless there are concerns the Corps has they aren't telling us about.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1801

Now that he's written about it, there will probably be a good deal of media attention.

[MannyIsGod]

I think its fucking stupid they are even considering not opening Morganza. That land is a spillway and while its going to flood a lot of farmland and cost those people a lot of money they knew that going in and its a Spillway. If they choose not to open that spillway and the Old River structure fails its got ENORMOUS consequences and they shouldn't be gambling with that.

[TeyshaBlue]

Choice #1...open the spillway and shit on everyone in the path of it. End result, lots of pissed off shat-upons.
Choice #2...don't open it and if the ORS fails, call it an act of God.

I can see the resistance to path #1.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah - considering how little attention they're getting and how little accountability is ever held here in the US then I can see that. Its just fucking stupid from a fundamental stand point. The risk reward is terrible.

[MannyIsGod]

Good information on the situation to be found here.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/missriver.asp

As shown by scenario 3 avoiding opening the spillway confines the flooding quite a bit but then every piece of that system including the levees and the ORCS are put to the absolute limit. I would be shocked if they didn't open Morganza.

[Winehole23]

Just heard on NPR: Evacuations in LA, Bobby Jindal urges Corps of Engineers to open the Morganza Spillway.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, they can't afford to fuck around with it. They have to open and it and even then the system will be under quite a bit of strain.

[RandomGuy]

The Mississippi River Commission has given U.S. Army Corp of Engineers the authority to open the Morganza Spillway.

[RandomGuy]

:lol The Yellowstone supervolcano is on a 600,000 year cycle and it has been almost 600,000 years. The tsunami that'll wipe out the eastern seaboard won't be caused directly by an earthquake like the one that wiped out Sendai; it'll be the landslide from half of the island of La Palma falling into the ocean after an earthquake, and the tsunami will be hundreds of feet high.


The three super eruptions occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million, and 640,000 years ago, forming the Island Park Caldera, the Henry's Fork Caldera, and Yellowstone calderas, respectively.[8] The Island Park Caldera supereruption (2.1 million years ago), which produced the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff, was the largest and produced 2,500 times as much ash as the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption. The next biggest supereruption formed the Yellowstone Caldera (640,000 years ago) and produced the Lava Creek Tuff. The Henry's Fork Caldera (1.2 million years ago) produced the smaller Mesa Falls Tuff but is the only caldera from the SRP-Y hotspot that is plainly visible today

Chances it will happen in my lifetime: very small.

Chances that humanity's technology will advance to the point that we will acquire the ability to prevent the next one before it happens: pretty high

chances that the supercomputer life form that will take over after we are extinct will be able to prevent it: 100%

[MannyIsGod]

Chances it will happen in my lifetime: very small.

Chances that humanity's technology will advance to the point that we will acquire the ability to prevent the next one before it happens: pretty high

chances that the supercomputer life form that will take over after we are extinct will be able to prevent it: 100%

Prevent? Yeah fucking right. The chances of preventing an eruption of that size are pretty much the chances of blowing up a nuclear weapon in the palm of your hand and still having fingers.