PDA

View Full Version : Tornadoes and global warming



DarrinS
05-24-2011, 01:05 PM
An appetizer from HuffandPuffPost

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-mckibben/stay-calm-carry-on-our-pl_b_866130.html




Caution: It is vitally important not to make connections. When you see pictures of rubble like this week's shots from Joplin, Mo., you should not wonder: Is this somehow related to the tornado outbreak three weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, Ala., or the enormous outbreak a couple of weeks before that (which, together, comprised the most active April for tornadoes in U.S. history)? No, that doesn't mean a thing.

It is far better to think of these as isolated, unpredictable, discrete events. It is not advisable to try to connect them in your mind with, say, the fires burning across Texas -- fires that have burned more of America at this point this year than any wildfires have in previous years. Texas, and adjoining parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, are drier than they've ever been -- the drought is worse than that of the Dust Bowl. But do not wonder if they're somehow connected.

If you did wonder, you see, you would also have to wonder about whether this year's record snowfalls and rainfalls across the Midwest -- resulting in record flooding along the Mississippi -- could somehow be related. And then you might find your thoughts wandering to, oh, global warming, and to the fact that climatologists have been predicting for years that as we flood the atmosphere with carbon we will also start both drying and flooding the planet, since warm air holds more water vapor than cold air.

It's far smarter to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods -- that's the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don't let yourself wonder why all these record-breaking events are happening in such proximity -- that is, why there have been unprecedented megafloods in Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan in the past year. Why it's just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years. No, better to focus on the immediate casualties, watch the videotape from the store cameras as the shelves are blown over. Look at the news anchorman standing in his waders in the rising river as the water approaches his chest.

Because if you asked yourself what it meant that the Amazon has just come through its second hundred-year drought in the past five years, or that the pine forests across the western part of this continent have been obliterated by a beetle in the past decade -- well, you might have to ask other questions. Such as: Should President Obama really just have opened a huge swath of Wyoming to new coal mining? Should Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sign a permit this summer allowing a huge new pipeline to carry oil from the tar sands of Alberta? You might also have to ask yourself: Do we have a bigger problem than $4-a-gallon gasoline?

Better to join with the U.S. House of Representatives, which voted 240 to 184 this spring to defeat a resolution saying simply that "climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for public health and welfare." Propose your own physics; ignore physics altogether. Just don't start asking yourself whether there might be some relation among last year's failed grain harvest from the Russian heat wave, and Queensland's failed grain harvest from its record flood, and France's and Germany's current drought-related crop failures, and the death of the winter wheat crop in Texas, and the inability of Midwestern farmers to get corn planted in their sodden fields. Surely the record food prices are just freak outliers, not signs of anything systemic.

It's very important to stay calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies. If worst ever did come to worst, it's reassuring to remember what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there's no need to worry because "populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations." I'm pretty sure that's what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today.

DarrinS
05-24-2011, 01:12 PM
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/joplin-missouri-tornado-causing-rise-deadly-storms/story?id=13665260






The carnage in Joplin, Missouri, has only added to an already-horrific year for tornadoes in the U.S. Sunday evening's tornado in Joplin has caused the highest death toll from a single tornado in more than 50 years.

ABC News spoke with lead forecaster Greg Carbin of the National Weather Service's National Severe Storm Laboratory and asked him why the 2011 tornado season has been so extraordinarily devastating.

Is the death toll in 2011 significantly higher than previous years?

Short Answer: Yes. The average death toll is normally 60 to 70.

Meteorologist Greg Carbin: "In the past decade the average annual death toll from tornadoes has been around 60 to 70 people. The average killer tornado claims about two lives and so what's going on this year is something well above that. ... We're now approaching about 500 fatalities for the year to date, just under that. That is something we have not experienced in this country in over 35 years and it still looks like we're still around the number nine as far as the deadliest year on record. So there have been many years in the past over the past couple of generations in which we've exceeded 500 fatalities in a year, it's just that they haven't occurred recently."

Have there been more tornadoes in 2011 than previous years?

Short Answer: No, the tornadoes are just hitting populated areas.

Carbin: "There is no indication of an upward trend in either intensity or numbers. We've had a lot more reports of tornadoes, but most of those tornadoes are actually the weak tornadoes, the F-0. When you take out the F-0 tornadoes from the long-term record, there is very little increase in the total number of tornadoes, and we don't see any increase in the number of violent tornadoes. It's just that these things are coming, and they're very rare and extreme, and they happen to be hitting populated areas. So right now, no indication of an upward trend in the strong to violent tornadoes that we're seeing."

Are strong tornadoes a result of global warming?

Short Answer: Unknown. There is evidence that suggests both yes and no.

Carbin: "With respect to a connection to climate change ... it's an unanswered question, essentially. We know that there are ingredients that thunderstorms need that could increase in a warmer world, but we also know there are ingredients that may decrease, so the connections if any are very tenuous and the scientific discoveries on this have yet to be made."

Are more tornadoes on the way?

Short Answer: The number of tornadoes is expected to decrease as summer begins.

Carbin: "In the summer months we often see a lot of thunderstorms in many areas of the country, but we also tend to lose the wind shear that's necessary for organized severe weather. ... So we'll see a lot of thunderstorms as we go through the summer months and they'll be scattered across the entire nation, but, again, as we move towards summer we lose the dynamics and the wind shear that's produced tornadoes and tornadic thunderstorms."

coyotes_geek
05-24-2011, 01:18 PM
:tu Great topic. I eagerly await the intelligent, thought provoking discussion that this thread is certain to generate.

TeyshaBlue
05-24-2011, 01:27 PM
:tu Great topic. I eagerly await the intelligent, thought provoking discussion that this thread is certain to generate.

I like websites and stuff. Do you like websites?

DarrinS
05-24-2011, 02:09 PM
:tu Great topic. I eagerly await the intelligent, thought provoking discussion that this thread is certain to generate.


I've come to realize that there actually aren't many actual "discussions" on this board.


Mostly, it's just stuff like what you just posted.

George Gervin's Afro
05-24-2011, 02:12 PM
I've come to realize that there actually aren't many actual "discussions" on this board.


Mostly, it's just stuff like what you just posted.

does anyone else get the irony of this post?

DarrinS
05-24-2011, 02:14 PM
does anyone else get the irony of this post?


GGA is a good example.

ChumpDumper
05-24-2011, 02:17 PM
I've come to realize that there actually aren't many actual "discussions" on this board.


Mostly, it's just stuff like what you just posted.Or in cases of your posts like that one, what I am about to post now:

:lmao

George Gervin's Afro
05-24-2011, 02:19 PM
I've come to realize that there actually aren't many actual "discussions" on this board.


Mostly, it's just stuff like what you just posted.



sincerely,

the poster who starts threads and never enters the discussion

coyotes_geek
05-24-2011, 02:36 PM
I've come to realize that there actually aren't many actual "discussions" on this board.


Mostly, it's just stuff like what you just posted.

True. I would feel bad about it, but somehow I doubt after the previous 1,000 global warming threads you've started that this is the one time you were truly interested in generating a sincere discussion on the topic.

TeyshaBlue
05-24-2011, 02:44 PM
does anyone else get the irony of this post?

Delicious sauce is delicious.

Nbadan
05-24-2011, 06:59 PM
Manny is spinning in his grave as we speak..

Wild Cobra
05-24-2011, 08:20 PM
Speaking of Tornadoes, I'm in Oklahoma right now, near Oklahoma City. We had some twisters do damage not far away.

MannyIsGod
05-24-2011, 08:41 PM
Manny is spinning in his grave as we speak..

Why exactly? I'd say I'm spinning on top of the grave you dug for yourself the last time you tried to debate me on this subject. Want to have another go at it?

Nbadan
05-25-2011, 12:12 AM
Nothing to see here....move along...

cQnvxJZucds