The Right Way to Shrink Prisons

[elbamba]

Op-Ed Contributor
By SHIMA BARADARAN
Published: May 30, 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/opinion/31baradaran.html?_r=4&ref=opinion

LAST week the Supreme Court ordered California to reduce its prison population after finding that the state’s penal system was so overcrowded that it constituted cruel and unusual punishment. What the court didn’t do, however, was provide any guidance about how to do it, giving rise to fears of violent convicts being set free and increasing crime rates.

Rather than seek major criminal justice reforms to reduce the prisoner numbers, including scrapping California’s harsh “three strikes” sentencing laws, Gov. Jerry Brown has proposed simply moving the surplus state prisoners to county jails. This does nothing to reduce California’s disproportionately high incarceration rates and could just transfer the overcrowding to local jails.

Fortunately, there is a more lasting solution to overcrowding, one that gets to the heart of exploding inmate populations nationwide: reform the rules governing pretrial detention, in part by using formulas to help judges better determine which defendants are unlikely to commit crimes while on bail. Doing so not only would make the system more fair, but also would significantly reduce the number of people who are unnecessarily jailed and even reduce crime rates.

Every year America spends close to $66 billion to keep people behind bars. But almost 500,000 of the 2.3 million prisoners aren’t convicts; rather, they are accused individuals awaiting trial.

While some defendants are able to pay their bail and go free, most cannot, because many judges, lacking firm insight into what types of prisoners are too dangerous to release, set high bail amounts knowing the accused can’t afford them. Though some of these defendants will eventually be found not guilty and go free, keeping them incarcerated before their trials creates a burden on the prison system.

What’s more, detention begets more detention. Defendants detained before trial are more likely to be convicted if they go to trial, more likely to receive prison sentences rather than probation when sentenced, and, given their weak bargaining power with prosecutors while locked up, are more likely to have longer sentences.

A few jurisdictions, however, have begun to think outside the prison cell. In line with recommendations endorsed by the American Bar Association, Miami-Dade County cut costs associated with detention by supervising defendants outside jail at a total cost of around $400 per defendant per year, compared with $20,000 for incarcerated defendants. In Iowa, alternatives to pretrial detention saved the state’s Southern District $1.7 million in 2009.

These and other jurisdictions have also cut costs using technology, like G.P.S. trackers and ankle bracelets, that allow defendants to remain at home — with supervision — while awaiting trial.

True, while these solutions may make sense from a budgetary standpoint, critics worry that increasing pretrial releases will present a threat to public safety, especially since judges are typically left to make bail decisions based simply on a gut feeling.

The risk of release can be largely reduced by arming judges with more data to inform their decisions. Frank McIntyre, an economist, and I recently examined data from over 100,000 felony defendants over a 15-year period, and we found very clear trends regarding which defendants are more likely to commit crimes while free on bail.

For example, judges often detain too many older defendants (people over 30), defendants with clean records and defendants charged with fraud or public order offenses — in other words, people who are less likely to commit crimes while out on bail. On the other hand, judges release too many young defendants with extensive records, people who are more likely to break the law while awaiting trial.

This data could be used to create a set of guidelines that would give judges a better sense of which defendants to release. Of course, judges must use individual discretion and carefully consider local data with pretrial detention decisions. However, our models indicate that such guidelines could safely lead to the release of up to 25 percent more defendants — and a significant reduction in prison costs and crime rates.

Given eye-popping local, state and federal deficits, it’s unlikely that California will be the only state to face the tough choices involved in reducing its prison population. With the right data on pretrial defendants, though, judges can help make that task a lot easier.


Shima Baradaran is an associate professor of law at Brigham Young University and the chairwoman of the American Bar Association Pretrial Release Task Force.

A version of this op-ed appeared in print on May 31, 2011, on page A23 of the New York edition with the headline: The Right Way to Shrink Prisons.

[Blake]

no mention of the breakdown of the types of crimes prisoners are in jail for.

non-violent offenders/defendants awaiting trial should absolutely be released using ankle bracelets and/or gps trackers.

[clambake]

"Defendant released pre-trial goes on killing spree."

wouldn't want to be that judge.

[coyotes_geek]

"Defendant released pre-trial goes on killing spree."

wouldn't want to be that judge.

Yep. The idea sounds good in theory, but it's success is dependent on judges (often elected ones) who stand to lose their job by being wrong on as few as one defendant.

[jack sommerset]

Convicted Murderers to Be Freed if California State Senator Gets His Way

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/06/02/convicted-murderers-to-be-freed-if-california-state-senator-gets-his-way/

[clambake]

Convicted Murderers to Be Freed if California State Senator Gets His Way

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/06/02/convicted-murderers-to-be-freed-if-california-state-senator-gets-his-way/

"......and likely to relocate to texas"

you're welcome

[elbamba]

Ultimately the decision is up to the trial judges discretion. State legislatures could lighten the burden on the judges by adopting laws that specificially target pre-trial detainees and bail.

I participated in several criminal cases the past couple of years where bail was denied or set at rediculously high amounts for no good reason. (Mind you, when bail is set high, there is a solid arguemtn that the court is using bail as punishment, but appeal that and you might have a client sitting in jail for 6 extra months). In several instances, my client plead and served no time and in others, we got the case dismissed. The court denying bail made no sense.

States use grids for criminal punishment all the time, it would be possible to adopt a similar grid for bail that looks at the level of offense, the nature of the crime, the criminals past history and then determines whether bail would be appropriate and at what price it should be set. Most states have laws that give guidance, but a grid would take it out of the judges hands for the most part.

[Blake]

"Defendant released pre-trial goes on killing spree."

wouldn't want to be that judge.

I like this idea:


.....reform the rules governing pretrial detention, in part by using formulas to help judges better determine which defendants are unlikely to commit crimes while on bail.

if they ever were to come up with a set formula, that judge would be able to sleep at night.

[clambake]

then something happens, and the formula's competence goes on trial.

[elbamba]

then something happens, and the formula's competence goes on trial.

Is it any different from a released convict who served his/her time and then commits a violent crime after being released?

Any repeat offender or convicted criminal who has later commited a violent crime has already served jail time under a formula. States have not stopped using formulas to determine how long a convict should serve, why should it be any different for pre-trial detainees?

[elbamba]

Convicted Murderers to Be Freed if California State Senator Gets His Way

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/06/02/convicted-murderers-to-be-freed-if-california-state-senator-gets-his-way/

That article offers nothing by way of suggesting how to mediate and correct the current problem with overcrowding, underfunded prisons in California. This of course is aproblem that is facing all of America, California just had case that went to the Supreme Court.

Your article does not take into account what the state will pay out on 1983 lawsuits for cruel and unusual punishment.

[clambake]

Is it any different from a released convict who served his/her time and then commits a violent crime after being released?
yes, it would be different.


Any repeat offender or convicted criminal who has later commited a violent crime has already served jail time under a formula. States have not stopped using formulas to determine how long a convict should serve, why should it be any different for pre-trial detainees?

thats why its different.

[Blake]

yes, it would be different.

thats why its different.

If they set up a formula, most likely the formula/grid computation will spit out a tougher ability to get out on bail for repeat offenders, especially for those that committed violent crimes.

[clambake]

If they set up a formula, most likely the formula/grid computation will spit out a tougher ability to get out on bail for repeat offenders, especially for those that committed violent crimes.

who are the people that would create this formula that would release a repeat offender?

[Blake]

who are the people that would create this formula that would release a repeat offender?

dunno exactly.

hopefully the formula would come from and include opinions from judges, prosecutors, law enforcement agencies, and maybe even some private practice lawyers along with other legal entities or interest groups I might not be thinking of at the moment before being introduced into any bill.

[clambake]

dunno exactly.

hopefully the formula would come from and include opinions from judges, prosecutors, law enforcement agencies, and maybe even some private practice lawyers along with other legal entities or interest groups I might not be thinking of at the moment before being introduced into any bill.

you mean those judges that previously set ridiculously high bail?

we're ready to burden a judge with fiscal responsibility in the equation?

[baseline bum]

If only there was a huge population of non-violent offenders that could be cut out of the system by reasonable laws.

[ElNono]

What's the free market solution?

[elbamba]

who are the people that would create this formula that would release a repeat offender?

The state legislature. Like they do in all states now.

[elbamba]

What's the free market solution?

Corrections Corporation of America
GEO Group, Inc.
Community Education Centers.

There are other smaller companies but these are the giants, CCA being the biggest.

However, the contracts are expensive and I am not so sure that the state or federal government save money using private companies.

[elbamba]

you mean those judges that previously set ridiculously high bail?

we're ready to burden a judge with fiscal responsibility in the equation?

I am sure a committee would be formed made up of legislators, judges, attorneys and other interested parties. I know plenty of judges who would like some of the discretion taken out of their hands in this matter. Then, a judge who goes outside the guidlines must have a compelling reason to do so.

What suggestions would you offer to California to reduce the overpopulation, underfunded, human rights violating state that thier jails are currently in?

[clambake]

The state legislature. Like they do in all states now.

so....this already exists, and it's been taken out of the judges decisions?

[clambake]

What suggestions would you offer to California to reduce the overpopulation, underfunded, human rights violating state that thier jails are currently in?

for starters, just what baseline bum suggested.

having a "commitee" of people determining the release based on statistics is spooky.

[boutons_deux]

Damn, seems like the prison population started exploding with St Ronnie's election and getting the VRWC (includes the PIC) shitball rolling

http://www.prisonpolicy.org/prisonindex/graphs/incarcerationrate.jpg

http://www.prisonpolicy.org/graphs/incrate19252001.html

=======

A Hellava Job, Ronnie!

[ElNono]

Corrections Corporation of America
GEO Group, Inc.
Community Education Centers.

There are other smaller companies but these are the giants, CCA being the biggest.

However, the contracts are expensive and I am not so sure that the state or federal government save money using private companies.

Wouldn't those guys actually push for more incarcerations and stiffer penalties? It only makes business sense to them.

[boutons_deux]

"those guys actually push for more incarcerations and stiffer penalties"

Sure they would, and do. The AZ or NV governor pushed thru imprisonment for illegals. By sheer coincidence, the gov's top advisors were PIC executives/lobbyists. It's literally "paying" off.

[elbamba]

so....this already exists, and it's been taken out of the judges decisions?

You misunderstood me. The state legislature creates and implements laws, in this case guidlines, that determine how much time a convicted criminal will serve in jail. The guidlines take many factors into account, type of crime, violence/non-violent, age (minor/adult), repeat offender, etc...This exists right now in most if not all states. The state might call it something different but in essence, they are sentencing guidlines and are only applied to convicted criminals.

What you might not be familiar with is that most county/district prisons will hold pretrial detainees, sometimes for months, while awaiting trial. The article I posted, one of the suggestions is to reduce the number of pre-trial detainees using ankle bracelets, and other devices to monitor them. My suggestion is to adopt guidlines similar to those used in sentencing convicted criminals, and applying the new guidlines to pretrial detainees.

For example, a twenty year old is accused of robbing a store at gun point. The kid has no previous convictions, did not shoot anyone while allegedly robbing the store, and makes off with $90.00. The robber was wearing a mask and gloves, there is no dna evidence and the victim can not identify the accused. The store was closed so there were no customers, the store clerk was working alone at the time of the robbery. The alleged gun used in the incident was an unloaded paintball gun and did not have fingerprints matching the accused.

Using these facts, does it serve society to set bail at $500,000.00? Does it serve society to have this man sit in jail for three months on the tax payers dime? If and when this young man gets out, he lost his job and now collects unemployment from the state.

Would it not be worth the time to implement guidlines that would have taken this case out of the hands of the judges discretion and forced him to apply a more reasonable bail? (These facts are similar but distinct to case I had a few years ago).

[elbamba]

Wouldn't those guys actually push for more incarcerations and stiffer penalties? It only makes business sense to them.

Absolutely. See the AZ immigration bill and who were the major pushes funding that project. Where do you think the detainees were going to be incarcerated.

The free market won't solve this problem. That was kind of my point in posting those companies. The free market will set the convicts free.

[boutons_deux]

Prison Math: What are the costs and benefits of leading the world in locking up human beings

the U.C.–Santa Barbara economist Jeff Grogger found there are large deterrent effects from increased certainty of punishment and much smaller, generally insignificant effects from increased severity. Such findings call into question the economic rationality of increasingly long prison terms. Who knows how many more millions will be locked up by the time public policy finally catches up with economics?

http://reason.com/archives/2011/06/08/prison-math

=======

Like the MIC (both the medical AND military industrial complexes) and , the PIC is just another way taxpayer wealth is transferred to corporations.

[elbamba]

for starters, just what baseline bum suggested.


I can agree to that.

Which do you think will be easier, get state legislatures to pass laws that legalize drugs or get state legislatures to pass guidlines that will assist judges in determining bail?

[clambake]

if this has been implemented in other states, are you stating that bail is no longer set by the judge in those states?

or

are you saying that a system should be implemented for first time offenders, leaving the judge out of the decision?

do you really want to leave that out of their hands?

[elbamba]

having a "commitee" of people determining the release based on statistics is spooky.

They already have committees that determine how long, if at all, convicted criminals will serve jail time. Why not for people who are innocent until proven guilty? Its not like you have to grant bail to someone who is being charged with murdering a person or rape. A judge will still have the authority to deny bail based upon the crime. Usually severe crimes such as murder are off grid offense.

[clambake]

Which do you think will be easier, get state legislatures to pass laws that legalize drugs or get state legislatures to pass guidlines that will assist judges in determining bail?

of course it would be easier to pass a guideline. thats whats spooky.

[elbamba]

if this has been implemented in other states, are you stating that bail is no longer set by the judge in those states?

or

are you saying that a system should be implemented for first time offenders, leaving the judge out of the decision?

do you really want to leave that out of their hands?

Sentencing guidlines have already been implemented in most, if not all states.

I am talking about guidlines before someone is convicted. There are no guidlines that I am aware of for setting bail in any state. If there is anyone in here who know of states that do please correct my ignorance.

States spend billions of dollars housing pre-trial detainees, many of who are not flight risks or who are facing non-violent charges. I want to implement guidlines for these people.

[ElNono]

Absolutely. See the AZ immigration bill and who were the major pushes funding that project. Where do you think the detainees were going to be incarcerated.

The free market won't solve this problem. That was kind of my point in posting those companies. The free market will set the convicts free.

Figures.

There's no doubt that the situation is out of control. I remember reading a while back the abuses and corruption of bail bond industry, which I'm sure adds another facet to this. Probably another topic for another thread.

[clambake]

They already have committees that determine how long, if at all, convicted criminals will serve jail time. Why not for people who are innocent until proven guilty? Its not like you have to grant bail to someone who is being charged with murdering a person or rape. A judge will still have the authority to deny bail based upon the crime. Usually severe crimes such as murder are off grid offense.

i don't have a problem with bracelets and monitoring, but wouldn't the added cost for adequate monitoring be staggering?

the bottom will fall out when they slip through the cracks. and many will slip through.

[Blake]

The state legislature. Like they do in all states now.

the question was 'who would create the formula?'

I took that to mean who would come up with the initial formula/grid, not necessarily who would ultimately make it law.

[coyotes_geek]

if only there was a huge population of non-violent offenders that could be cut out of the system by reasonable laws.

+1

One would think that letting the stoners out of jail would have a much more dramatic effect on reducing prison populations than tinkering with bail amounts.

[Blake]

you mean those judges that previously set ridiculously high bail?

we're ready to burden a judge with fiscal responsibility in the equation?

and/or possible the judge you referred to earlier.

if state legislature agreed to pass the formula into law, there would be no fiscal (or even moral) responsibility put on the judge.

[elbamba]

or

are you saying that a system should be implemented for first time offenders, leaving the judge out of the decision?

do you really want to leave that out of their hands?

Not first time offenders. The guidlines will be for everyone, even repeat offenders. Lets take drugs for example.

Police have an arrest warrent for your roomate. They come to your house and another roomate lets the cops in. While searching the house, the see you sitting in your room with pot in your hand, you invite them into your room, the walk in and see a shotgun on the floor of your closet, its unloaded, but a shotgun nevertheless. They arrest you, now you are facing a potential felony because you were in possession of drugs and a dangerous firearm. You have never had so much as speeding ticket.

Would you agree that in that setting, you are not a danger to society? Would you also agree that society would not benefit from you sitting in jail for several weeks/months while your case goes through the legal system?

These are the types of situations where guidlines setting low bail would help. If the judge feels like you are a danger, they will still have power to set a higher bail. However, now there will be language that no longer allows a judge to do so in his/her discretion, but rather, the judge must have a compelling reason to raise bail. Society is still safe.

[clambake]

and/or possible the judge you referred to earlier.

if state legislature agreed to pass the formula into law, there would be no fiscal (or even moral) responsibility put on the judge.

thats what i'm getting at. be damned to the victims.

[elbamba]

the question was 'who would create the formula?'

I took that to mean who would come up with the initial formula/grid, not necessarily who would ultimately make it law.

It would be a group of legislators backed by lawyers, judges and special interests. I don't expect it do be done for the greater good, but the article makes a good point in addressing that states might look to limit waste by implementing better pretrial practices that will free money for the real dangers to society.

[Blake]

i don't have a problem with bracelets and monitoring, but wouldn't the added cost for adequate monitoring be staggering?


I am fairly sure almost all monitoring is done through private companies and the monitoring service is billed to the defendant.

It's then on the defendant to provide the probation officer with the results of the monitoring.

[clambake]

Not first time offenders. The guidlines will be for everyone, even repeat offenders. Lets take drugs for example.

Police have an arrest warrent for your roomate. They come to your house and another roomate lets the cops in. While searching the house, the see you sitting in your room with pot in your hand, you invite them into your room, the walk in and see a shotgun on the floor of your closet, its unloaded, but a shotgun nevertheless. They arrest you, now you are facing a potential felony because you were in possession of drugs and a dangerous firearm. You have never had so much as speeding ticket.

Would you agree that in that setting, you are not a danger to society? Would you also agree that society would not benefit from you sitting in jail for several weeks/months while your case goes through the legal system?

These are the types of situations where guidlines setting low bail would help. If the judge feels like you are a danger, they will still have power to set a higher bail. However, now there will be language that no longer allows a judge to do so in his/her discretion, but rather, the judge must have a compelling reason to raise bail. Society is still safe.
sure, i can agree with this one scenario, but, what are we talking about here, maybe 8 people?

[Blake]

thats what i'm getting at. be damned to the victims.

what victims are you referring to?

If you have a case of a repeat offender of a violent crime, chances are, the grid would make it very very difficult for him/her to make bail.....if at all.

[elbamba]

if state legislature agreed to pass the formula into law, there would be no fiscal (or even moral) responsibility put on the judge.

We don't seem to have too much of a problem with state legislator setting guidlines to deterimine who long a convicted criminal will serve jail time. Its really not that different.

The prosecutor will still ask the court to deny bail where the prosecutor feels it is necessary. This will limit the stupid prosecutors who operate like zombies and want bail set at high rates or denied for most cases. This will also allow a judge to move outside the guidlines if he has a compelling reason to do so.

[clambake]

I am fairly sure almost all monitoring is done through private companies and the monitoring service is billed to the defendant.

It's then on the defendant to provide the probation officer with the results of the monitoring.

i didn't know that. how do they make sure the defendant pays or can pay?

is that required before release? payment?

[Blake]

We don't seem to have too much of a problem with state legislator setting guidlines to deterimine who long a convicted criminal will serve jail time. Its really not that different.

The prosecutor will still ask the court to deny bail where the prosecutor feels it is necessary. This will limit the stupid prosecutors who operate like zombies and want bail set at high rates or denied for most cases. This will also allow a judge to move outside the guidlines if he has a compelling reason to do so.

Agree, I don't see much of a difference either.

It's why I like the idea. :tu

[Blake]

i didn't know that. how do they make sure the defendant pays or can pay?

is that required before release? payment?

currently, if they don't pay, they can be found to be in violation of parole.

To jail they go.

[elbamba]

sure, i can agree with this one scenario, but, what are we talking about here, maybe 8 people?

I don't have the time but I can lay out millions of examples that you would agree with.

This is why you need the guidlines that can take into account violent vs. non-violent crimes (i.e. Trespass vs. Rape), repeat offenders, age, and many other factos.

[clambake]

what victims are you referring to?
the past and possible future victims of this said defendant that was released pre-trial, just because his alleged crime was considered not violent based on statistics. i'd hate to think these statistics would be based on a whole without recognizing the difference between poodles and pitbulls.


If you have a case of a repeat offender of a violent crime, chances are, the grid would make it very very difficult for him/her to make bail.....if at all.
i don't argue with this.

[elbamba]

i don't have a problem with bracelets and monitoring, but wouldn't the added cost for adequate monitoring be staggering?

the bottom will fall out when they slip through the cracks. and many will slip through.

I don't know how to quote my article but here is a cut and paste:

"A few jurisdictions, however, have begun to think outside the prison cell. In line with recommendations endorsed by the American Bar Association, Miami-Dade County cut costs associated with detention by supervising defendants outside jail at a total cost of around $400 per defendant per year, compared with $20,000 for incarcerated defendants. In Iowa, alternatives to pretrial detention saved the state’s Southern District $1.7 million in 2009."

There is not a perfect system. But I would rather have a non-violent predetainee criminal out of prison, than someone who has been convicted. Remeber that the Supreme Court of the U.S. just ordered thousands of convicted criminals to be released because the state could not afford to hold them in humane conditions.

[Blake]

the past and possible future victims of this said defendant that was released pre-trial, just because his alleged crime was considered not violent based on statistics. i'd hate to think these statistics would be based on a whole without recognizing the difference between poodles and pitbulls.


if the crime is considered non violent based on statistics, then how bad did these future victims get victimized?

do you have an example off hand?

[clambake]

I don't know how to quote my article but here is a cut and paste:

"A few jurisdictions, however, have begun to think outside the prison cell. In line with recommendations endorsed by the American Bar Association, Miami-Dade County cut costs associated with detention by supervising defendants outside jail at a total cost of around $400 per defendant per year, compared with $20,000 for incarcerated defendants. In Iowa, alternatives to pretrial detention saved the state’s Southern District $1.7 million in 2009."

There is not a perfect system. But I would rather have a non-violent predetainee criminal out of prison, than someone who has been convicted. Remeber that the Supreme Court of the U.S. just ordered thousands of convicted criminals to be released because the state could not afford to hold them in humane conditions.

come on man, i read that. didn't you like my "poodles and pit bulls" scenario?

[elbamba]

I have to go back to work. I'll start everyone off by getting us back on track:

Republicans suck! President Obama is a Libyan Socialist! I am a libertarian who believes that the government should regulate any moral issue on which I disagree with liberals.

Go!

[clambake]

if the crime is considered non violent based on statistics, then how bad did these future victims get victimized?

do you have an example off hand?

i don't have an example. but there will be some. and i'd hate to be the judge that presided over the decision.

[Blake]

i don't have an example. but there will be some. and i'd hate to be the judge that presided over the decision.

1. It would obviously depend on the crime, but if a non-violent offender repeats the same non-violent crime while out on probation, I'm not sure what the big deal would be there.

2. if the grid/formula/matrix is placed into law, then the judge would have no choice but to abide by the matrix, thus relieving him/her of the guilt he/she might otherwise currently feel.

[clambake]

1. It would obviously depend on the crime, but if a non-violent offender repeats the same non-violent crime while out on probation, I'm not sure what the big deal would be there.
it could be a very big deal to the victims. it could be life altering.


2. if the grid/formula/matrix is placed into law, then the judge would have no choice but to abide by the matrix, thus relieving him/her of the guilt he/she might otherwise currently feel.

yep. don't like it. poodles and pit bulls.

[Blake]

it could be a very big deal to the victims. it could be life altering.

lol like what?


yep. don't like it. poodles and pit bulls.

sorry, I dont get the analogy.

[MannyIsGod]

The government just can't fucking admit its retarded drug laws fuck everyone but those who make money off of easy incarceration.

[clambake]

lol like what?
like getting your car stolen. the car that allows you to work and back. the car you can't afford to replace. the missing piece that provides for your family. just one example. not lol if you're asking me.




sorry, I dont get the analogy.

thats because you have accepted the standard regarding the statistics without ferreting out the individual. not lol.

[Blake]

like getting your car stolen. the car that allows you to work and back. the car you can't afford to replace. the missing piece that provides for your family. just one example. not lol if you're asking me.

for one, getting convicted of stealing a car over $1500 is grand theft and is a felony.

If someone gets busted on a second charge, I'm pretty sure that bail will be set at an extremely high amount.

Even then, how long would you propose to keep a criminal convicted of grand theft in jail?

Sooner or later we are going to have to free them.


thats because you have accepted the standard regarding the statistics without ferreting out the individual. not lol.

for purposes of starting up a formula, yeah, I'd be good with using standard statistics.

if need be, the formula can be tinkered later, but it would be a nice start, imo.