Administration might suggest 56 mpg requirement by 2025

[belindaB]

A week ago the administration met with the large 3 U.S. car manufacturers to talk about having all vehicles and light trucks fulfill a standard of 56.2 miles per gallon requirement by 2025. While the program would increase the price of vehicles, advocates say it will be made up by customers in lower fuel expenses. Opponents, however, see the program as too difficult.





What the discussion was about



Ford, Chrysler and General Motors all met with the administration officials in private meetings to talk about a plan. To meet the requirements, vehicles would have to increase in value on average about $2,100. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will work together with the EPA (EPA) to choose on the rule. September 30 is when it has to be done by.





Picking the 2016 requirement



The proposed figure is a compromise. By 2016, automakers have to get to 35.5 mpg already. The Transportation Department and the Environmental Protection Agency have said they would consider a requirement in the range of 47 mpg to 62 mpg for improvements between 2017 and 2025. The new requirement, if set, would mean an additional 5 percent improvement per intervening year.





Requirements are even increased for some



The 62 mpg standard is something most environmental groups are hoping for. Roland Hwang is at the Natural Resources Defense Council. As the transportation program director, he said, "Fifty-six mpg, while not as ambitious as the level we have been advocating, is a doubling in fuel efficiency from today's average passenger vehicle and would cut drivers' fuel bills in half."





Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign at the Center for Auto Safety, warns, "It is not just the number that matters. It's the loopholes underneath it. And automakers will look to turn whatever number it is into Swiss cheese."





Vehicles would need to be gas-electric hybrids though if they were to actually fulfill the 62 mpg.





Auto dealers discover the strategy 'overly ambitious'



The 56.2 mpg figure isn't a realistic one as reported by National Automobile Dealers Association spokesman Baily Wood. "Overly ambitious standards set 14 years in the future risk severe economic harm if customer wants and needs are not met," he said.





Statements made by two of the three



It could be attainable for General Motors. This was echoed in the comment the North American General Motors president had. "When you put those things in for the first time, they may be more expensive. But this is a volume and scale industry. What was very expensive in the past is no longer very expensive."





It is something Ford is more cautious with. This was apparent in what Ford spokeswoman Christin Baker said. She said Ford would support a "national program that is data driven and factors in the impact of this rule-making on jobs, the economy, consumers and safety." The 56 mpg figure was not talked about at all by her.





At this time, there has not been a remark made from Chrysler.

[Creepn]

As long as they don't make it illegal to drive the cars we have now. I love my car and put a lot of work into it so I'm not planning on getting a new car ever. Unless I come across a wealth of money that is.

Will the cars of now be frowned upon if the majority of the nation are driving those electric cars in 2025? Will I be ticketed for noise disturbance even with stock exhaust? Will girls in 2025 be turned on about how quiet the car sounds than with a loud ass hemi?

[DarrinS]

This was possible back in 1984, well before any hybrids.

GhmViSMm24c

[in2deep]

As long as they don't make it illegal to drive the cars we have now. I love my car and put a lot of work into it so I'm not planning on getting a new car ever. Unless I come across a wealth of money that is.

Will the cars of now be frowned upon if the majority of the nation are driving those electric cars in 2025? Will I be ticketed for noise disturbance even with stock exhaust? Will girls in 2025 be turned on about how quiet the car sounds than with a loud ass hemi?

it will be awesome when in 2025 ppl are driving this little 100mpg tin cans and you and I rolling on 2000-2009 4L engine beasts :hat

[boutons_deux]

"they don't make it illegal to drive the cars we have now"

I doubt they'll make they it illegal, but you never know.

If the price of oil doesn't push oil to the $8 level (and it will), then federal taxes could and should (like adult countries in Europe that aren't controlled by the oilcos).

The could also be an annual tax on cars based on its Fed mileage tests. You wanna roll in a 10 mpg Bentley or Hummer, you pay for the "privilege" of wasting oil

As part of the annual state inspection, there should be an exhaust emissions test. You spew over the limit, you're car must be tweaked until it's legal.

[DarrinS]

If the price of oil doesn't push oil to the $8 level (and it will), then federal taxes could and should (like adult countries in Europe that aren't controlled by the oilcos).


Are you even paying attention to what's currently going on in those "adult countries"?

LMMFAO

[DarrinS]

I wonder why this piece of shit only gets 33 city/41 hwy?

http://media.ed.edmunds-media.com/pictures/VEHICLE/2010/smart/2010.smart.fortwo.20325564-E.jpg

[fyatuk]

If the price of oil doesn't push oil to the $8 level (and it will), then federal taxes could and should (like adult countries in Europe that aren't controlled by the oilcos).

We won't reach that for probably a decade or 2. I do agree that the gas tax should be increased. I like the plans that include an increased gas tax that reduces itself during temporary spikes in cost to insulate the consumer from fluctuations.


The could also be an annual tax on cars based on its Fed mileage tests. You wanna roll in a 10 mpg Bentley or Hummer, you pay for the "privilege" of wasting oil

I've long said the state government should create a sliding scale on vehicle registrations based on EPA rated estimated mileage and age. As gas mileage increases in the future, there will need to be an alternate income to replace declining gas tax revenues (one of the reasons the gas tax needs to be increased), and that's a good start on finding it.


As part of the annual state inspection, there should be an exhaust emissions test. You spew over the limit, you're car must be tweaked until it's legal.

Could be nice. They check to make sure the exhaust system is installed and connected properly and to make sure the gas cap provides a good seal, but they don't really measure the exhaust output.

Well, in Houston, Dallas, Austin, and El Paso MSA's, they now do emissions testing for gasoline powered vehicles no including motorcycles.

[Borat Sagyidev]

This was possible back in 1984, well before any hybrids.

GhmViSMm24c


This type of vehicle is worth 2.5 lbs of pubies in my home country. However, it will kill you if you crash into this same amount of pubies

[boutons_deux]

I wonder why this piece of shit only gets 33 city/41 hwy?

http://media.ed.edmunds-media.com/pictures/VEHICLE/2010/smart/2010.smart.fortwo.20325564-E.jpg

Exactly, I do wonder why these micro cars aren't well over 40 mpg.

The Jetta diesel, not a microcar, of earlier years was being reported in various driving web sites at getting 50 or more highway, and 40+ reliably.

[RandomGuy]

Data points:

1999-2009 average Chinese rate of growth in oil consumption: 6.7%

Most recent estimate of Chinese oil consumption 2010:

9.2M barrels per day.

Implied average growth rate: 6.7%

US oil consumption, 2010
17.4M barrels per day

Most optimistic estimate of current "spare" OPEC capacity + full Libyan capacity:
5.6M barrels per day

Year at which Chinese consumption will surpass 100% of best estimated full OPEC capacity:
2018

I say "best" estimate, because there appears to be some data that suggests OPECs actual capacity, especially for light sweet crude, is non-existant.

Refineries set up for light sweet crude cannot process the heavier sour oil.

As the light sweet supply tightens, demand for that will go up markedly, and you will see a refining bottleneck. Scott could probably speak to that.

Year at which Chinese oil consumption is projected, based on this historical average, to pass that of the US:
2020

I don't think we need government mandated fuel economy. The car companies have access to the same data, and know full well what is about to happen to the cost of a gallon of gas.

http://www.worldcrops.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2011-04-15-china-oil-consumption.gif

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D9-JNTtRKgs/TT7GHdcLaII/AAAAAAAABfg/INdKTsl6aRM/s400/Screen+shot+2011-01-25+at+7.45.03+AM.png

Links:

OPEC spare capacity:
http://www.businessinsider.com/opec-spare-capacity-rig-count-and-the-big-picture-2011-6

Chinese oil consumption:
http://www.stratfor.com/memberships/187432/graphic_of_the_day/20110310-chinas-oil-dependency
... as well as many others. Most data is as of 2009, stratfor seemed to have 2010 data. 2009 Chinese oil consumption 8.6M pbd seems to be the average consensus

Almost all of the Chinese new consumption will have to be imported. If Chinese production falls or trails off, as is likely, its import requirements will actually grow faster than its consumption.

I am fairly sure that Chinese growth is going to be quite constrained by a likely slowdown in the next few years.

Note I haven't said a word about the *other* billion-person economy growing at similar rates, India.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_o2H52OH-Kdg/TIgGUdOsfDI/AAAAAAAAARk/zc1V8Pdj2hk/s320/Screen%20shot%202010-09-08%20at%206.36.24%20PM.png

India consumption:
1.2M bpd 1990
3.0M pbd 2009

Implied growth rate:
4.9%

Year at which China and India together will consume all of the best case spare OPEC capacity plus all of Libyan capacity, assuming no change in rate of growth:
2017

But there is always more oil out there that they will discover, right?

http://www.energyvanguard.com/Portals/88935/images/peak-oil-growing-gap-between-discoveries-and-production.png

http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/WorldOilDiscoveries.jpg

No, not really.

Have fun with that.

[Borat Sagyidev]

Exactly, I do wonder why these micro cars aren't well over 40 mpg.

The Jetta diesel, not a microcar, of earlier years was being reported in various driving web sites at getting 50 or more highway, and 40+ reliably.

The Jetta/Rabbit to the Passat/Jetta had a minimal amount of emissions requirements = less force needed to eject exhaust = higher efficiency

Old Jetta, Civic CRX HF, etc were light cars..so they were economical. But they'd kill you in a minor accident.

The Smart car is relatively heavy and safe, that's why the MPG is not so spectacular.

[DarrinS]

RG makes a good case for us to have our own oil supplies.

[ElNono]

As long it's just a suggestion and not a mandate, then it's a noble goal... We'll know how feasible it is when we get closer to the deadline...

[boutons_deux]

"RG makes a good case for us to have our own oil supplies."

then why aren't US oilcos drilling the 1000s of leases they have now? Maybe they know somwthing you don't?

[Bender]

half the motorcycles made now get less than 40mpg.

[RandomGuy]

RG makes a good case for us to have our own oil supplies.

We have our own supplies. We have about 2% of what is left.

It isn't sufficient to supply us for any meaningful length of time, and it certainly won't enable us to meet all of our needs under any possible scenario.

The correct conclusion is that the shrinking supply, coupled with massive increases in demand will force the price point up.

The market based response will be to shift energy consumption to other forms of energy and use less oil overall.

You do know how the free market works, right?

[RandomGuy]

As long it's just a suggestion and not a mandate, then it's a noble goal... We'll know how feasible it is when we get closer to the deadline...

I think making the companies start researching now will give them a chance to get out ahead of the trend.

It would probably be helpful to mandate it, but given that the market will force them in that direction anyways, but it isn't totally necessary.

[RandomGuy]

"RG makes a good case for us to have our own oil supplies."

then why aren't US oilcos drilling the 1000s of leases they have now? Maybe they know somwthing you don't?

They aren't because the rigs to do so cost $500M and up.

That is a lot of cash even for a big oil company, and they are building the deep water rigs about as fast as the shipbuilders can make them.

The problem though is that the oil companies are somewhat hesitant to run out and commit to these major expenditures as they got badly burned in the 90's.

[TeyshaBlue]

They aren't because the rigs to do so cost $500M and up.

That is a lot of cash even for a big oil company, and they are building the deep water rigs about as fast as the shipbuilders can make them.

The problem though is that the oil companies are somewhat hesitant to run out and commit to these major expenditures as they got badly burned in the 90's.

Bust cycles will do that. It also clears out the "amateurs".:lol

[boutons_deux]

They have 1000s of leases ON SHORE, don't need $500M for an onshore well.

Avg oil well production in USA is 5 - 10 barrels/day, 50K wells. :lol

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/24/Oil_depletion_per_country.png

[RandomGuy]

Bust cycles will do that. It also clears out the "amateurs".:lol

Eyup.

From what I read that is part of the problem with the current oil/gas boom.

A lot of people just moved on to other industries, so now companies are getting caught short-handed.

I have a buddy with a degree in petroleum engineering or something similar that got out of school in the mid-nineties and couldn't find a job.
(or maybe didn't bother to, never did find out how hard he tried, just that he gave up on finding a job with his degree and went on to other things)

[TeyshaBlue]

The costs are somewhere in the neighborhood of 250,000 - 500,000 per day to drill....lot's of variables in that figure. You've got to factor in the geologic studies, lease payments, and crew costs. Typical rigs in my old stomping grounds might be drilling for 3 to 4 weeks (some damn deep wells on the caprock), so you're looking at 10+ million per well...if nothing breaks.

[TeyshaBlue]

Eyup.

From what I read that is part of the problem with the current oil/gas boom.

A lot of people just moved on to other industries, so now companies are getting caught short-handed.

I have a buddy with a degree in petroleum engineering or something similar that got out of school in the mid-nineties and couldn't find a job.
(or maybe didn't bother to, never did find out how hard he tried, just that he gave up on finding a job with his degree and went on to other things)

Man, I can remember when petroleum engineering was a guaranteed homerun. Those dudes could pull down some serious cash right off the bat. Course, that was 40 years ago.


Dammit. 40 years? *sigh*:depressed

[greyforest]

did some research recently about hybrids to find out which to buy. turns out there isn't any competition as the prius slays everything in every category (mpg, cost, interior room, reliability)

its a shame its so ugly

[Wild Cobra]

Is the 56 MPG requirement going to be required for cars in all 57 states?

[Drachen]

half the motorcycles made now get less than 40mpg.

This is probably because due to the fact that motorcycles have long been gas saving champions, that there has been zero push to make them more economical. This is why I cant see myself going higher than a 750. The gas mileage is too damn good, and it is most certainly faster than I need.

[Drachen]

did some research recently about hybrids to find out which to buy. turns out there isn't any competition as the prius slays everything in every category (mpg, cost, interior room, reliability)

its a shame its so ugly

I think that they are coming out with several new body designs in the near future. Prii is what they are called. I believe that Toyota plans on making them a sub brand.

[Wild Cobra]

This is probably because due to the fact that motorcycles have long been gas saving champions, that there has been zero push to make them more economical. This is why I cant see myself going higher than a 750. The gas mileage is too damn good, and it is most certainly faster than I need.
I wonder how all the computer controls would be implemented on a motorcycle.

[Drachen]

I wonder how all the computer controls would be implemented on a motorcycle.

Don't see how it would be any different than a car (other than the fact that there are fewer systems to control on a motorcycle).

[Wild Cobra]

Don't see how it would be any different than a car (other than the fact that there are fewer systems to control on a motorcycle).
Sure, but what would it look like?

[Drachen]

Sure, but what would it look like?

probably a motorcycle.

[boutons_deux]

Carmakers and White House Haggling Over Mileage Rules


"The administration is proposing regulations that will require new American cars and trucks to attain an average of as much as 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025, roughly double the current level. That would require increases in fuel efficiency of nearly 5 percent a year from 2017 to 2025.

The standard would put domestic vehicle fuel efficiency on a par with that in Europe, China and Japan,

The United States has the world’s most lenient vehicle emissions and mileage standards, lagging as much as 10 m.p.g. behind the rest of the world. Europe is expected to reach about 60 m.p.g. by 2020."

http://www.truth-out.org/print/3828

[Wild Cobra]

Carmakers and White House Haggling Over Mileage Rules


"The administration is proposing regulations that will require new American cars and trucks to attain an average of as much as 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025, roughly double the current level. That would require increases in fuel efficiency of nearly 5 percent a year from 2017 to 2025.

The standard would put domestic vehicle fuel efficiency on a par with that in Europe, China and Japan,

The United States has the world’s most lenient vehicle emissions and mileage standards, lagging as much as 10 m.p.g. behind the rest of the world. Europe is expected to reach about 60 m.p.g. by 2020."

http://www.truth-out.org/print/3828
Who is dreaming of Utopia again?

Sorry, but I have a hard time believing such mileage possible, and still have what we consider a car.

[MannyIsGod]

Man, I can remember when petroleum engineering was a guaranteed homerun. Those dudes could pull down some serious cash right off the bat. Course, that was 40 years ago.


Dammit. 40 years? *sigh*:depressed

If by 40 years ago you mean today....

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos027.htm#earnings

Not many more lucrative positions than that.

[MannyIsGod]

Who is dreaming of Utopia again?

Sorry, but I have a hard time believing such mileage possible, and still have what we consider a car.

LOL open mind.

[Wild Cobra]

LOL open mind.
Having a "hard time believing" is not contrary to being open minded. I never implied "impossible."

[boutons_deux]

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

by very definition, conservatives are against progress, will do anything to maintain the status quo, in which they have wealthy vested interest. Then there are the poor, duped losers who are conservative but have no vested interest to defend.

[DarrinS]

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

by very definition, conservatives are against progress, will do anything to maintain the status quo, in which they have wealthy vested interest. Then there are the poor, duped losers who are conservative but have no vested interest to defend.


If, by progress, you mean massive expansion of government and entitlements at the expense of individual liberty, then, yes, conservatives are against progress.


By the way, how do "progressive" policies generate wealth?

[boutons_deux]

"expense of individual libertyexpense of individual liberty"

what liberties are you missing?

Did the Repug Patriot Act and Repug warrantless wiretapping get under your skin? The right-wing consensus here was having the govt rape your expectation privacy was fine as long as you had nothing to hide.

[DarrinS]

LOL open mind.


Actually, based on the laws of thermodynamics, those numbers are achieveable, but at a price. Assuming you could design the most efficient internal combusion engine ever and you could mostly eliminate all sources of friction, drag, etc., you are still left with the mass of the vehicle and the displacement of the engine as variables. You can get high mpg, but you are going to have to sacrifice weight and power.

Those evil oilco bastards at Shell sponsor an annual event called the Eco-marathon. This years winner from Canada had a vehicle that got 2,564.8 mpg. Of course, these vehicles are single-occupant bank tubes that take a minute or so to get up to their blazing top speed (i.e. not very fast).

http://www.shell.com/home/content/ecomarathon/americas/media/event_highlights/2011/04172011_final.html

[coyotes_geek]

One way to improve mileages here in the U.S. would be to revisit the EPA regulations on diesel. There's plenty of high mileage diesels in europe that can't be built here due to a bunch of regulations put in place during the EPA's anti-diesel crusade of the 90s.

[boutons_deux]

Diesel cars gain traction slowly in U.S. market

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/07/05/diesel-cars-gain-traction-slowly-in-u-s-market/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheRawStory+%28The+Raw+Story% 29

[Wild Cobra]

Nobody answered my question.

Is the 56 MPG going to be required in all 57 states?

[boutons_deux]

The 56 mpg rule would apply to a mfr's fleet, not to states.

[Wild Cobra]

The 56 mpg rule would apply to a mfr's fleet, not to states.
LOL...

No shit Sherlock.

You didn't see the joke in there?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I wonder how all the computer controls would be implemented on a motorcycle.

You know when the circuit board blows and you have to change that part?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

LOL...

No shit Sherlock.

You didn't see the joke in there?

Jokes are supposed to be funny.

[Wild Cobra]

Jokes are supposed to be funny.
It is funny, except to Obama apologists.

[boutons_deux]

a hilarious joke, to Barry ankle-biters.

[coyotes_geek]

It is funny, except to Obama apologists.

The shelf life of that joke expired a long time ago.

[Drachen]

It is funny, except to Obama apologists.

It's reaching, it's old, and it's irrelevant to the topic.

[Wild Cobra]

The shelf life of that joke expired a long time ago.
Are you saying Palin jokes have a longer shelf life?

[Wild Cobra]

It's reaching, it's old, and it's irrelevant to the topic.
Sure, it's irrelevant. But 57 is after 56, and Obama mixes up the 57 Islamic states with the 50 US states.

[Drachen]

Are you saying Palin jokes have a longer shelf life?

I would say that certain ones are old (I can see russia, etc).

However, I don't understand why someone would want to pull up 3 year old material when she provides new stuff at least weekly.

Oh and thank you for showing us that you understand that 56 comes before 57. That made the joke HILARIOUS!!!

[coyotes_geek]

Are you saying Palin jokes have a longer shelf life?

If I were saying anything about Palin jokes, I'd have said something about Palin jokes.

But since you bring it up, any jokes about Palin/Russia are old and tired too.