Don

[MannyIsGod]

Its that time of year, and I'm pretty sure most of you in South Texas need the rain badly so keep your eye to the Gulf. We'll likely have Don in the next day or so.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

[MannyIsGod]

Some of the first model plots.

Take these with a grain of salt, most of the forecasts will be south of these plots and closer to the Mexican coast.

Also, the models have had a really bad handle on the system to date because of a lack of good data from the area regarding upper air patterns. NOAA will be making flights in and around the system today to gather more data so future model runs should be much better able to deal with it.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/tropical-images-picture-15

[cantthinkofanything]

Fucking shit. Let this happen.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah - looking like it might be the best case scenario for Texas. Lots of rain but not much wind/damage.

[MannyIsGod]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/tx_dm.png

Not that TX needs rain or anything...

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Fucking shit. Let this happen.

Fucking shit is right, man.

[JudynTX]

:tu Come on Don!!!!

[boutons_deux]

Ricky Bobby Perry will say his praying brought the rain, then announce his candidacy because God wants him to run.

Some sacred rain-making music:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xM7BRP7uzFk

[benefactor]

East Texas is probably SOL with this system. SA might get something out of it though if it manages to track closer to the border.

[Frenzy]

So you're saying I should invest in a rain barrel. I saw one at home depot and was like man..I think they sent that to the wrong city :lol

[I. Hustle]

who gives a fuck if it rains or not

all rain does is cause traffic accidents

fuck rain.

Yeah! Rain and it's stupid traffic accidents!

[Drachen]

Gooooooo teal!

[Das Texan]

If this thing makes a bee line to San Antonio, i might jizz my pants.

[cantthinkofanything]

If this thing makes a bee line to San Antonio, i might jizz my pants.

If this thing makes it to Ft. Worth, I'll jizz your mom's pants.

[benefactor]

Officially a tropical storm...with early dynamic models having it making landfall between quite a bit further north than I expected. I'm still feeling it might track further south but I will gladly take the rain if it comes in between Corpus and Galveston. The other good news is that the NHC is predicting it won't make hurricane strength before landfall..which is predicted to be Friday. SST's are very warm...so I'll have to check into the other variables to see what gives them this assumption.

[MannyIsGod]

Latest GFS still doing a shitty job of resolving it.

[MannyIsGod]

http://icons.wxug.com/metgraphics/angela/at2011_DON_model_jul_27.gif

These model runs really don't mean shit. We'll know more by tomorrow morning.

[baseline bum]

http://icons.wxug.com/metgraphics/angela/at2011_DON_model_jul_27.gif

These model runs really don't mean shit. We'll know more by tomorrow morning.

EDIT: D'oh, I should have read the fucking legend. :lol

[Lefty's understudy]

Do Italian people call this one Donnie?

[4>0rings]

I don't understand our local water system.

We are threatened and punished because we aren't using enough water so they say they will raise the price, and then they get all butt hurt when we do?

[Drachen]

I don't understand our local water system.

We are threatened and punished because we aren't using enough water so they say they will raise the price, and then they get all butt hurt when we do?

what?

[4>0rings]

what?
I read an article in the paper not too long ago about the rising prices for water usage and one of the excuses was there was not enough water being used... :rolleyes

[Drachen]

I read an article in the paper not too long ago about the rising prices for water usage and one of the excuses was there was not enough water being used... :rolleyes

I would be interested in reading that, can you find it?

[MannyIsGod]

You sure you didn't misread that?

[benefactor]

Right now wind shear is pretty high in the prediction cone...between 20-30kts. If it stays anywhere close to that then I can see the storm having problems strengthening much.

[SnakeBoy]

You sure you didn't misread that?

He must have. They are restructuring the rates to encourage water conservation. Average residential bill will go down a bit and heavy water users will pay considerably more.

[Drachen]

He must have. They are restructuring the rates to encourage water conservation. Average residential bill will go down a bit and heavy water users will pay considerably more.

This is what I have read over and over again.

[Drachen]

quick question.... isn't it better (rain wise) to be slightly northeast of the eye? Don't you get more rain that way?

[boutons_deux]

Looks like nothing for central TX

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0411W5_NL_sm2+gif/083514W5_NL_sm.gif

[Chingo Bling]

quick question.... isn't it better (rain wise) to be slightly northeast of the eye? Don't you get more rain that way?

Chale guey, be directly in fron of the eye and you will get it all.

[Drachen]

Looks like nothing for central TX

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0411W5_NL_sm2+gif/083514W5_NL_sm.gif

I think that this cone is where the eye could go, we can still get slammed by the storm even if the eye doesn't pass directly over us.

[CubanMustGo]

He must have. They are restructuring the rates to encourage water conservation. Average residential bill will go down a bit and heavy water users will pay considerably more.

There are two issues: long-term and short-term.

Long-term I have no doubt the situation is as presented here. That said, short-term the City depends on getting "X" million dollars each month in profit from water sales to balance its budget, and if overall water usage is WAY down, there certainly could be a (counter-intuitive) raise in overall rates so the City continues to get the financial windfall from water billings.

Now, back to Don. This thing's not going to get strong enough to slam anyone. Given the amount of shear and small size of the storm, it's not even outside the realm of possibility that it totally breaks down before it gets here if it encounters more hostile conditions, tho that doesn't look likely. We have to hope the shear will let up a bit so the thing can organize a little so it can grow and actually form a decent-sized rain coverage area. Otherwise it hits the coast, a few counties get rain down there, and then poof it goes away before most of the state can get anything out of it.

[MannyIsGod]

It is better to be on the NE side of the center of circulation, yes. However, one bad thing about the storm is how compact it is. It needs to expand a lot more before landfall and that probably won't happen. Its very small.

San Antonio should get rain out of this though.

[Sense]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/tx_dm.png

Not that TX needs rain or anything...

:) I'm on that small spot on the right.

[Chomag]

Come on Don! Bring it!!!

[boutons_deux]

it's not multi-100-mile-wide monster. It's a punk

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

SA will get nothing more than some interesting cloud sightings to the s/w. :)

The drought's hit on this season's TX ag is estimated to be $4B+.

[boutons_deux]

animation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

looks like the center will pass 100+ miles from SA.

[Chomag]

It may be apunk but we will take anything we can get lol

[SnakeBoy]

It may be apunk but we will take anything we can get lol

They're saying 4-6" of rain possibly...I'll sure take it.

[MannyIsGod]

I hate to see it keep moving to the south. South Texas needs rain too but yeah.

[SnakeBoy]

I'm north of SA, I think I'm going to get screwed. Sucks, most of the deer around here look like skeletons.

[ManuBalboa]

Thanks Rick Perry. :)

[CubanMustGo]

Fuck this shit. At the rate it's bending southward it may end up going into Mexico.

[leemajors]

He must have. They are restructuring the rates to encourage water conservation. Average residential bill will go down a bit and heavy water users will pay considerably more.

I would like to see the businesses that run their sprinklers all night pouring water in the street pay out the ass.

[MannyIsGod]

The track is pretty far south now. Looks like SA is going to get totally hosed.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

That sucks. I was expecting driving into the rain.

[boutons_deux]

coming ashore now, right over Brownsville

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[MannyIsGod]

Nah, its still a few hours off shore and it will come ashore near the Rockport Port A area just south of Corpus.

[MANGINA]

I'm still headed down there this weekend.

[cantthinkofanything]

If this thing makes a bee line to San Antonio, i might jizz my pants.


If this thing makes it to Ft. Worth, I'll jizz your mom's pants.

oh well. I did this anyway.

[baseline bum]

Everyone survive that madman ok?

[cherylsteele]

Don was a dud.

[Fabbs]

Did SA even get a light sprinkle?

[desflood]

It rained in my neighborhood three times in 24 hours. None of it lasted more than a couple of minutes.

[cherylsteele]

ur a fiucking idoit for even starting a threref abiut this

it wont rain is san antonio and it wont so stfu
and stop actin like its about to 99 flood again fagg

That flood was actually 1998.........idiot.
Get your facts straight.

[TE]

It literally drizzled in my neighborhood, then just like that it was gone.


I had never seen a tropical storm disappear like that.