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View Full Version : VegasInsider.com Chris David analysis



wildbill2u
06-14-2005, 11:21 AM
VegasInsider.com.

Not to be seen as an encouragement for illegal wagering. Just an interesting article. :angel

Editor’s note: Chris David has been destroying the books with a 17-5 (77%) run in the playoffs. CD cashed big again Sunday with another winning parlay with the SA-Over for Game 2! CD owns The NBA Finals, going 4-0 L4, 12-2 (86%) in his last 14 finals picks.



The NBA Finals continue Tuesday, with Detroit hoping to salvage some pride from The Palace of Auburn Hills in Game 3. The Pistons face a 2-0 deficit in their best-of-seven series against the Spurs and hopes of repeating as champions appears to be bleak. ABC offers coverage of this battle at 9:00 p.m. EST.

San Antonio's Manu Ginobili has lived up to all the hype and more.
San Antonio opened up a commanding lead after drilling Detroit 97-76 in Game 2 as a six-point favorite, while the combined 173 points went ‘over’ the closing total of 171. The Spurs came out of the gate quickly with a 30-19 lead in the first quarter before holding a 58-42 advantage at the break.

Spurs’ guard Manu Ginobili dropped in 27 points on 6-of-8 from the floor, including 4-of-5 from downtown and 11-of-13 from the stripe. Tim Duncan added 18 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks. At this point, the most intriguing part of the series might come down to whether Ginobili or Duncan wins the Most Valuable Player award.

Greg Popovich’s squad has been the aggressor in the first two games, capturing every loose ball and creating havoc on both ends of the floor. The Spurs won Game 1 by 15 points (84-69), but they really didn’t play a sound game offensively, shooting just 43 percent from the field.

Game 2 was a different story, as San Antonio shot 47 percent from the field, including 46 percent (11-of-24) from downtown. Toss in a healthy 28-of-34 (82%) from the free throw line and you got all signs pointing to a blowout.

Did we mention that Detroit shot 40 percent from the field and were 0-of-6 from 3-point land? Also, the Pistons only attempted 16 free throws, while making just 10. Richard Hamilton struggled for his second straight game, shooting 33 percent (5-of-15) from the floor for 14 points. Is it safe to say Spurs’ guard Bruce Bowen is the best man-to-man defender in the league?

Ironically, the Spurs had more turnovers (15-13) and were beat on the glass (45-36), especially on the defensive end. The Pistons grabbed 18 offensive boards, which translated into 20 more shots (82-62). Still, if you can’t put the ball in the bucket, you’re going to be in trouble.

Let’s take a look at the line for Game 3. Oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants tabbed Detroit as a four-point home favorite, with the total listed at 172. Most books have held the side, but the total has dropped to 171 and 170 in a few spots.

First, let me give much kudos goes to the books for playing the public on the totals in this series so far. The Game 1 total opened at 174 and jumped to 179 before closing out at 176. Sure enough, the combined 153 points never threatened the closing number.

Then, Game 2 opens at 170 after seeing a defensive struggle in Game 1 and bounces anywhere between 169 and 171. The number landed on 173 and even though most people might think it was close, it really wasn’t. Both teams combined for 100 at the break and only need 30 points in the fourth quarter to cover all bets. The ‘over’ cashed with two minutes still on the clock in fourth quarter.

The question that I ask myself for the third game is, “Why is Detroit favored?” The Pistons haven’t shown up so far and you can make a case that if it wasn’t for injuries to Miami’s Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade, then we wouldn’t even be talking about the champs, right?

Amateurs aren’t expecting Detroit to go down 3-0 on its homecourt and the Pistons’ 39-11 straight up and 28-21 against the spread mark has to be noted. Not to mention that LB’s team is 7-2 both SU and ATS mark in the playoffs, winning all seven tilts by double-digits.

This brings us to San Antonio. The Spurs have been an underdog just six times this year in the regular season, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. If you do your homework, then you’ll realize that Duncan missed five of those games and the one game he played was his first off an injury in a meaningless game against Minnesota on Apr. 20.

In the playoffs, San Antonio has been an underdog three times. All three situations occurred in the Western Conference Finals and the Spurs won all three games outright versus Phoenix at America West Arena.

50 cent
06-14-2005, 12:15 PM
I'll taking the Spurs +4 tonight and maybe a small play on the under.

Rummpd
06-14-2005, 12:20 PM
Spurs cover and win out right!