Syria enters a new phase

[RandomGuy]

Bashar needs to GTFO, before he ends up like Ghadaffi.

Time to decide what kind of aid we need to give to *these* rebels.


BEIRUT (AP) — Dozens of soldiers and security forces were gunned down by suspected army defectors in southern Syria, a deadly ambush that comes as President Bashar Assad increasingly appears unable to manage the crisis, activists said Tuesday.

Monday's hours-long clash in the southern province of Daraa came on a particularly bloody day in Syria, with as many as 90 people killed across the country. The brazen attack by the army defectors suggested a new confidence among troops who have sided with the protesters and highlighted the potential for an armed confrontation to escalate.

The U.N. estimates the regime's military crackdown on an 8-month-old uprising has killed 3,500 people in the past eight months. November is shaping up to be the bloodiest month of the revolt, with well over 300 people killed so far.

The latest death toll was compiled by sources including British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the Local Coordination Committees activist coalition and morgue officials.

Rami Abdul-Rahman, head of the observatory, confirmed that 34 soldiers were killed in an ambush in Daraa, the birthplace of the uprising that began in mid-March, inspired by successful revolts in Tunisia, Egypt and later Libya.

Although activists say the protests have remained largely peaceful, with demonstrators calling for the regime's downfall, an armed insurgency has developed in recent months targeting Assad's military and security forces.

Assad is facing the most severe challenge to his family's four-decade rule in Syria, with former allies as well as Western nations using increasingly harsh rhetoric in urging him to stop his bloody crackdown. On Tuesday, Turkey said it no longer has confidence in the Syrian regime and warned Assad that his brutal crackdown threatens to place him on a list of leaders who "feed on blood."

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's comments were a blow to Syria, because the countries once cultivated close ties. But Turkish leaders have grown increasingly frustrated with Damascus over its refusal to halt the attacks on protesters.

On Monday, Jordan's King Abdullah II said Assad should step down for the good of his country, the first Arab leader to publicly make such a call.

That prompted pro-government protesters to converge on Jordan's embassy in Damascus, with three of them scaling the fence and ripping down the Jordanian flag — the latest in a string of attacks on foreign missions. Jordan's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Kayed said no one entered the embassy and no injuries occurred.

Monday's bloodiest attacks were in Daraa province, along the Jordanian border, including the attack that killed 34 soldiers. According to the observatory, 12 defectors and 23 civilians also killed in the area.

A resident near the town of Khirbet Ghazaleh in Daraa province said he heard more than four hours of intense gunfire. He asked that his name not be used for fear of government reprisals.

Another witness, who is an activist in the area, said he counted the bodies of 12 people, believed to be civilians killed by security forces' fire.

"I saw two army armored personnel carriers, totally burnt," he told The Associated Press by telephone. He also asked for anonymity out of fear for his safety.

In the restive city of Homs, the morgue received 19 corpses, all of them shot.

Other activist groups had slightly different figures of those killed, a common occurrence because the Syrian government has prevented independent reporting and barred most foreign journalists. Details gathered by activist groups and witnesses are key channels of information.

Syria's crackdown has brought international condemnation, but Damascus generally had been spared broad reproach in the Arab world. That changed Saturday, with a near-unanimous vote by the 22-member Arab League to suspend Syria, and the situation appeared to be spiraling out of Assad's control.

Earlier Monday, Syria struck back at its international critics, branding an Arab League decision to suspend its membership as "shameful and malicious" and accusing other Arabs of conspiring with the West to undermine the regime.

The sharp rebuke suggests Damascus fears the United States and its allies might use the rare Arab consensus to press for tougher sanctions at the United Nations.

Assad says extremists pushing a foreign agenda to destabilize Syria are behind the unrest, not true reform-seekers aiming to open the country's autocratic political system.

http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-soldiers-killed-clash-defectors-131725807.html

[Drachen]

Bashar needs to GTFO, before he ends up like Ghadaffi.

Time to decide what kind of aid we need to give to *these* rebels.



http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-soldiers-killed-clash-defectors-131725807.html

I really like that time where he promised reforms and a cease of hostilities to his arab league partners, then didn't even pretend like he was actually going to do it. I am being partially facetious, but only partially because that particular action is what caused EVERYONE (outside of Iran) to turn against him. Also, not that I like extra deaths and all, but maybe if they are successful without our help, it will provide a blueprint for Iranians.

[vy65]

lol turks calling other countries genocidal

[RandomGuy]

lol turks calling other countries genocidal

For those who aren't familiar with the rather nasty black spot on Turkey's national record:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Genocide


Nasty stuff. Turkish nationialists piss me off, as they deny this like neo-nazi's deny the Holocaust.

[Winehole23]

Turkey shares a border with Syria and will figure prominently in any solution proposed exogenously.

[boutons_deux]

Lots of Syrians camping in Turkey waiting for Bashar's exit.

[Winehole23]

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=245312&R=R3

[Winehole23]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15731187

[Winehole23]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8891553/Syria-Turkey-warns-Bashar-al-Assad-he-is-on-knife-edge.html

[Winehole23]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/16/us-syria-attack-idUSTRE7AF06V20111116

[RandomGuy]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/16/us-syria-attack-idUSTRE7AF06V20111116

That is one that raised my eyebrows. Haven't been following too closely, but that seems like the beginning of an active civil war, even more than the OP.

The military that is rebelling is targeting the intel services that are keeping the rest of the army loyal.

At this point, I would guess that US assets of some type, CIA or DOD, are probably in contact with the rebels, if not the Turkish military.

Turkey in the north, Iraq and the US in the east, and the abandonment of the Arab League.

Time for a poll.

[Winehole23]

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/97493/syria-kurds-national-council

[boutons_deux]

Great promise when the source of Bashar's power (the army) turns against him, but it will take 1000s more military to defect, esp the brass.

But they'll probably end up like Egypt, with Mubarak gone, but the military holding all the cards (aka guns).

[Winehole23]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/01/20121772734954345.html

[Winehole23]

Arab foreign ministers meet on Sunday to discuss whether to ask the United Nations to help their mission in Syria (http://www.reuters.com/places/syria) which has failed to end a 10-month crackdown on anti-government protests in which thousands have died.http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/07/us-syria-league-idUSTRE80609E20120107

[Winehole23]

The city of Zabadani in southwestern Syria reportedly has fallen into the hands of anti-regime forceshttp://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/24/considering_a_us-iranian_deal_99854.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/world/middleeast/blasts-kill-at-least-14-on-syrian-police-truck.html?hp

[Winehole23]

Syrian soldiers killed 19 people in fighting to retake Damascus suburbs from rebels on Sunday, activists said, a day after the Arab League suspended its monitoring mission in Syria because of mounting violence.

Around 2,000 soldiers in buses and armored personnel carriers, along with at least 50 tanks and armored vehicles, moved at dawn into the Ghouta area on the eastern edge of Damascus to reinforce an offensive in the suburbs of Saqba, Hammouriya and Kfar Batna, activists said.


The army pushed into the heart of Kfar Batna and four tanks were in its central square, they said, in a move to flush out rebels who had taken over districts just a few kilometers from President Bashar al-Assad's centre of power.


"It's urban war. There are bodies in the street," said one activist, speaking from Kfar Batna. Activists said 14 civilians and five insurgents from the rebel Free Syrian Army were killed there and in other suburbs.


http://www.realclearworld.com/news/reuters/international/2012/Jan/29/syrian_forces_battle_to_retake_damascus_suburbs.ht ml

[TDMVPDPOY]

replacing a regime, for the muslim brotherhood, where every fighter, leader and their dogs all want the winnings at the end of the war...and that is some sought of position of leadership in the new govt....just the same shit all over again, but more dumbshits in govt

[Winehole23]

Last summer, I used this space to speculate (http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=282686) that the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, if it sensed that it was losing power in Damascus, might contemplate retreating to the Alawite heartland in the coastal areas and mountains of northwestern Syria. Today, that option is very much alive, and according to several independent sources it is being discussed freely within the Alawite community.

To read more: http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=363038#ixzz1mCjhJsFw

[Spurs da champs]

It's none of our business & why don't you aid the rebels?

[cheguevara]

For those who aren't familiar with the rather nasty black spot on Turkey's national record:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Genocide


Nasty stuff. Turkish nationialists piss me off, as they deny this like neo-nazi's deny the Holocaust.


During American expansion into the western frontier, one primary effort to destroy the Indian way of life was the attempts of the U.S. government to make farmers and cattle ranchers of the Indians. In addition, one of the most substantial methods was the premeditated destructions of flora and fauna which the American Indians used for food and a variety of other purposes. We now also know that the Indians were intentionally exposed to smallpox by Europeans. The discovery of gold in California, early in 1848, prompted American migration and expansion into the west. The greed of Americans for money and land was rejuvenated with the Homestead Act of 1862. In California and Texas there was blatant genocide of Indians by non-Indians during certain historic periods. In California, the decrease from about a quarter of a million to less than 20,000 is primarily due to the cruelties and wholesale massacres perpetrated by the miners and early settlers. Indian education began with forts erected by Jesuits, in which indigenous youths were incarcerated, indoctrinated with non-indigenous Christian values, and forced into manual labor. These children were forcibly removed from their parents by soldiers and many times never saw their families until later in their adulthood. This was after their value systems and knowledge had been supplanted with colonial thinking. One of the foundations of the U.S. imperialist strategy was to replace traditional leadership of the various indigenous nations with indoctrinated "graduates" of white "schools," in order to expedite compliance with U.S. goals and expansion.

Probably one of the most ruinous acts to the Indians was the disappearance of the buffalo. For the Indians who lived on the Plains, life depended on the buffalo. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, there were an estimated forty million buffalo, but between 1830 and 1888 there was a rapid, systematic extermination culminating in the sudden slaughter of the only two remaining Plain herds. By around 1895, the formerly vast buffalo populations were practically extinct. The slaughter occurred because of the economic value of buffalo hides to Americans and because the animals were in the way of the rapidly westward expanding population. The end result was widescale starvation and the social and cultural disintegration of many Plains tribes.

http://www.iearn.org/hgp/aeti/aeti-1997/native-americans.html

[Winehole23]

Arab League members Sunday called for a joint peacekeeping mission in Syria with the United Nations and urged members to support the Syrian opposition as it faces a bloody government crackdown.http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/12/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html

[Winehole23]

Civil war segues into sectarian conflict?


Syrian government forces attacked opponents of President Bashar al-Assad in cities and towns across the country on Tuesday and Arab officials confirmed that regional governments would be ready to arm the resistance if the bloodshed did not cease.


The western city of Homs, heart of the uprising against Assad's 11-year-rule, suffered a bombardment of pro-opposition neighborhoods for the 11th day running. At least six people were reported killed.


Residents also fled from Rankous, a rural town near the capital Damascus, as it came under government artillery fire.


With Assad seemingly oblivious to international condemnation of his campaign to crush the revolt, Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia (http://www.reuters.com/places/saudi-arabia) pushed for a new resolution at the United Nations supporting a peace plan forged at a meeting in Cairo on Sunday.


But Arab League diplomats said that arming the opposition forces was now officially an option.


A resolution passed at the meeting urged Arabs to "provide all kinds of political and material support" to the opposition.


This would allow arms transfers, they confirmed to Reuters.


"We will back the opposition financially and diplomatically in the beginning but if the killing by the regime continues, civilians must be helped to protect themselves. The resolution gives Arab states all options to protect the Syrian people," an Arab ambassador said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/14/us-syria-idUSL5E8DB0BH20120214

[Winehole23]

Leslie Gelb does a nice job framing a question (http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/02/12/why-obama-should-go-slow-in-syria.html) that's been on my mind amidst repeated calls (http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/06/opinion/hamid-syria/index.html) for Western military intervention in Syria (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/feb/10/syria-not-iraq-wrong-intervene):

Faced with evil, Americans always want to be on the side of the angels. So American interventionists, hawks, and human-rights types are banding together, as they did in Libya, to stop President Bashar al-Assad from killing his people. But when interventionists become avenging angels, they blind themselves and the nation, and run dangerously amok. They plunge in with no plans, with half-baked plans, with demands to supply arms to rebels they know nothing about, with ideas for no-fly zones and bombing. Their good intentions could pave the road to hell for Syrians—preserving lives today, but sacrificing many more later.[Emphasis mine] This is an important point that was overlooked in Libya and will probably be overlooked again with respect to Syria: what constitutes protecting people? If you spare 10,000 civilians in a Benghazi or Homs only to set in motion a series of events that winds up killing and displacing as many if not more people over a five or ten year period, have you actually done anything that's morally commendable? Do lives become less important if they're lost gradually instead of in one mass slaughter?

We have been told (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/18cb7f14-ce3c-11e0-99ec-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Wzx5H6VB)that the intervention in Libya was a vindication of the Responsibility to Protect - the doctrine that legitimizes military intervention against a state committing atrocities against its own people - but how can we render any moral judgment on what's occurred in Libya? It's not at all clear that the country can be responsibly governed and continued tribal in-fighting could claim as many lives - or more - than any Gaddafi crackdown.


It often looks like advocates of "Responsibility to Protect" want a pass on this, using the overwhelming humanitarian emergency to overwhelm (or brow-beat) those asking for restraint without tackling the broader issue of how their proposed remedy will save lives over the long term. But it won't go away. If the U.S. steps into Syria and starts arming factions and, perhaps, carving out safe havens and humanitarian enclaves with no-fly-zones it could set Syria up for a protracted civil war. If that civil war claims more lives than those lost to date in Assad's brutal crackdown, can we really be said to be "protecting" anyone?
http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/does_a_responsibility_to_protect.html

[cheguevara]

:lol Saudi is entered the barking game. At least they have something to gain other than political bullshit that US/Israel is in for.

They want to throw pro-Iran regime out and install a pro-Saudi regime. They don't care if Al Qaeda or any other terrorists will be their "freedom fighters"

Israel/US(neocon|jew lobby)/Saudi coalition is working in unison here. And in the end the american people are probably the ones who are going to pay for the cost(in dollars and maybe even american blood)

[Winehole23]

The United States on Tuesday appeared to open the door to eventually arming the Syrian opposition, saying if a political solution to the crisis were impossible it might have to consider other options.


The comments, made by officials at both the White House and the State Department, marked a shift in emphasis by Washington, which thus far has stressed its policy of not arming the opposition and has said little about alternatives.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/21/us-syria-usa-rebels-idUSTRE81K1EX20120221

[Winehole23]

As fighting continues in Syria, President Obama indicted that the U.S. could beef up its role there, saying the U.S. cannot be a "bystander" as Syrian President Basha al-Assad continues the "slaughter of innocents."


"It's important that we not be bystanders during these extraordinary events," Mr. Obama said in remarks after a White House meeting with Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57384992-503544/obama-on-syria-u.s-cant-be-a-bystander/

[FuzzyLumpkins]

this current conflict stinks of cold war bullshit and i was really hoping that we would not see that type of foreign policy have to be used. Russia does not want to lose its Mediterranean port for obvious reasons and is not going to even have a thought of relenting until they have some guarantees.

Up until that point its going to be NATO arming the rebels and the Russians arming the regime. That will be bloody indeed. Just like old times.

Only shot of that not happening is if this newfangled replacement government can coalesce enough and have enough internal support to give concessions to the Russians.

I really do not know enough about the rebel leadership or Syria as a whole really as regards to their views on the Russians. I imagine that the last few months have done little to please the rebels though whatever came before.

[Drachen]

Didn't want to start a new thread so I thought I would use this one since this is kinda a new phase.

Syria: Internet and mobile communication 'cut off' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-20546302)


The internet has been cut off and mobile phones have been disrupted in Syria, monitoring firms have said.

Networking firm Renesys said the country's connection protocols were unreachable, "effectively removing the country from the internet".

Local reports suggested that the internet had been down since early afternoon, and that telephone lines were only working intermittently.

The Syrian government has blamed "terrorists" for the disconnection.

"The terrorists targeted the internet lines, resulting in some regions being cut off," Syria's minister of information told a pro-government television station.

According to activists, it has been known for similar communication cuts to occur in isolated areas before military operations.

Amnesty International has described the reports as "very disturbing".

Renesys, a US-based company which tracks internet connectivity worldwide, said on its blog: "In the global routing table, all 84 of Syria's IP address blocks have become unreachable."

According to its systems, access was disconnected at 12:26pm local time (10:26 GMT).

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/64467000/jpg/_64467960_64467959.jpg

[RandomGuy]

Didn't want to start a new thread so I thought I would use this one since this is kinda a new phase.

Syria: Internet and mobile communication 'cut off' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-20546302)


http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/64467000/jpg/_64467960_64467959.jpg

The rebels have also been overruning military bases and capturing more sophisticated weapons.


Syrian rebels take two military bases in heavy fighting
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-take-two-military-bases-in-heavy-fighting/2012/11/27/058f17fa-38d3-11e2-8a97-363b0f9a0ab3_story.html



In the past week alone, rebels have taken control of about a half-dozen military bases across the country as well as the Tishreen hydroelectric dam near the Turkish border.
Both of the bases taken Tuesday were used by the Syrian air force, one of the deadliest threats to rebel fighters, according to opposition groups. The Syrian military has regularly blasted rebel positions, as well as residential neighborhoods, with jets and helicopters in recent months, killing thousands.


Still, rebels also have had a number of recent successes in shooting down Syrian military aircraft, a possible sign that they have been able to confiscate heavier weaponry, potentially including surface-to-air missiles, after taking over government military bases.

Two helicopters were shot down in Aleppo province Tuesday, according to activists. A video of one of the attacks posted online shows what appears to be a *surface-to-air missile slamming into a helicopter in a ball of orange flame.

We are seeing the final phases as Assads military disintegrates, IMO.

3-12 more months and he will be brutally murdered after being captured, if he does not commit suicide.

Shit will hit the fan when that happens as all the neighboring countries work to install a crony in power, most notably Iran.

As soon as that happens, expect massive waves of refugees as the Aloites (sp?) flee vengeful sunni militias. You saw something similar in Iraq and Yugoslavia, you will see it in Syria.

[Drachen]

The rebels have also been overruning military bases and capturing more sophisticated weapons.


Syrian rebels take two military bases in heavy fighting
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-take-two-military-bases-in-heavy-fighting/2012/11/27/058f17fa-38d3-11e2-8a97-363b0f9a0ab3_story.html






We are seeing the final phases as Assads military disintegrates, IMO.

3-12 more months and he will be brutally murdered after being captured, if he does not commit suicide.

Shit will hit the fan when that happens as all the neighboring countries work to install a crony in power, most notably Iran.

As soon as that happens, expect massive waves of refugees as the Aloites (sp?) flee vengeful sunni militias. You saw something similar in Iraq and Yugoslavia, you will see it in Syria.

Maybe its time to deploy those mini internet in a box kits that they were talking about after egypt to turkey who just might "lose" them near the border.