New Fukushima Study

[Agloco]

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/11/11/1112058108.full.pdf+html

This is a link to a non-technical paper published in PNAS recently.

To summarize:

This is a part model, part observational study. Fukushima pefecture is estimated to have gotten on the order of 100,000 MBq (.1 TBq) of activity per square kilometer. Total deposition is estimated at 5.6 PBq.

For perspective, the upper radiation burden for farming is around 2200-2500 Bq per kg of soil.

A dose calc as well:

With the deposition given above, if you took a one meter-squared section and stood 1 meter away from it with your umbilicus at midplane your dose would be .00693 Gy/hr or 6.93 rad/hr. This corresponds to 58139.2 rad or 58.1 Gy in the first year. Obviously un-farmable much less livable.

Note that this calculation is done for Cs-137 on a wooden surface, which best approximates soil (yeah, I'm too lazy to do a soil calc......)


Caveats:

This takes into account Cs-137, which at this time will contribute > 95% of any dose received.

FLEXPART doesn't take into account variable wind fields and precipitation patterns. The actual deposition patterns will likely be more variable than this group estimates.

[TeyshaBlue]

Ag...just want to let you know I appreciate the knowledge you bring to the forum.:toast
Salute.

[Drachen]

Ag...just want to let you know I appreciate the knowledge you bring to the forum.:toast
Salute.

I agree.

[boutons_deux]

Report: US topsoil contains levels of radioactive cesium up to 10,000 percent higher than previously believed

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided to stop testing for Fukushima radiation back in May, however, after declaring that "no harmful levels of radiation (were) reaching the US from Japan." But based on Kaltofen's new data, the EPA is either woefully ignorant of reality, or is deliberately covering up the truth about radiation and deceiving the American public.

http://www.naturalnews.com/034048_topsoil_radioactive_cesium.html#ixzz1dnIczY nb

http://enenews.com/university-researcher-topsoil-8000-pcikg-cesium-fukushima-10000-higher-highest-levels-found-uc-berkeley

MSM and Fox gonna run with this, right?

[CosmicCowboy]

ag...just want to let you know i appreciate the knowledge you bring to the forum.:toast
salute.

x3

[Agloco]

Report: US topsoil contains levels of radioactive cesium up to 10,000 percent higher than previously believed

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided to stop testing for Fukushima radiation back in May, however, after declaring that "no harmful levels of radiation (were) reaching the US from Japan." But based on Kaltofen's new data, the EPA is either woefully ignorant of reality, or is deliberately covering up the truth about radiation and deceiving the American public.

http://www.naturalnews.com/034048_topsoil_radioactive_cesium.html#ixzz1dnIczY nb

http://enenews.com/university-researcher-topsoil-8000-pcikg-cesium-fukushima-10000-higher-highest-levels-found-uc-berkeley

MSM and Fox gonna run with this, right?

Probably before its veracity has been scrutinized no doubt. Let's dig for about 10 minutes:

Hmmmm.....

http://apha.confex.com/apha/139am/webprogram/Paper254015.html


Soils and settled dusts were collected from outdoor surfaces, interior surfaces, and from used children's shoes. The Japanese filters contained cesium 134 and 137, as well as cobalt 60 at levels as high as 3 nCi total activity per sample. Materials collected during April 2011 from Japan also contained Iodine 131.

Then:


Isolated US soil samples contained up to 8 nanoCuries per Kg of radiocesium, while control samples showed no detectable radiocesium.

According to that, US soil exhibits more radiation burden than materials found in Japan. Of course, we have no idea where in Japan they were collected from.....sooooo yeah, this abstract is quite vague.

Also,


Dusts containing radioactive cesium were found at levels orders of magnitude above background more than 100 miles from the accident site, and were detectable on the US west coast.

Detectable? At what levels? With what instrument?

"Orders of magnitude above background?" How many exactly? It matters, no?

Also, where along the Cascades were the samples taken? Windward, Leeward? That matters too. No isotope proportions, no dose extrapolations......sigh.

The information is far too vague in general IMHO. I'm not saying it's a bad study, but it's definitely not something that anyone should "run" with as of yet. Far too many questions are unanswered here.

[mavs>spurs]

I've been hearing doomsday shit like this from many many experts ever since this whole thing happened so it wouldn't surprise me. Bottom line, already high cancer rates boom across the world. Mcdonald's eating, overweight sedentary Americans will be the first to go. Stay in shape and drink plenty of green tea daily people.

[Cry Havoc]

Agloco, what kind of radius in miles/km do you think will be uninhabitable/unfarmable?

[mavs>spurs]

as far as unfarmable goes i wouldnt eat SHIT from california, much less japan

[Cry Havoc]

as far as unfarmable goes i wouldnt eat SHIT from california, much less japan

.... what?

[cheguevara]

http://infobeautiful2.s3.amazonaws.com/radiation_chart_3.png

[ElNono]

http://images.wikia.com/simpsons/images/8/8d/BartSimpson9.gif

[Agloco]

I forgot to include the supplement. My apologies.

http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2011/11/14/1112058108.DCSupplemental/pnas.1112058108_SI.pdf#SM4


Agloco, what kind of radius in miles/km do you think will be uninhabitable/unfarmable?

I don't think we can just put a radius to it really. The deposition patterns and reports are indicative of discontinuities with areas exhibiting high dose gradients. More likely, we will see some recommendation on a minimum safe distance, then use ongoing local surveys to locate and mark hotspots outside of that zone.

For example, Fukushima City has areas within it that are not only unfarmable, but uninhabitable. In Japan the limit is 2500 Bq/kg per Cs isotope for farming and about 10000 Bq/kg for livability. By contrast, some fields yielded harvests that were well within human consumption limits.

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/120711/full/475154a.html

What we are seeing is what we will get I suspect since gamma counter data is stabilized at around .4 uSv (this study conducted at Fukushima Medical University showed levels of 11.9 uSv in March)

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1111/1111.2395.pdf

Based on the reports I've seen from colleagues, I'd recommend 50km as a minimum safe distance with ongoing field surveys. The situation is still potentially dynamic until cold shutdown is achieved at Fukushima, so I'd hold my recommendation until that actually happens.

I've been invited to "tour" Fukushima. If I do wind up going I'll be sure to report a few of my findings.

[Cry Havoc]

I forgot to include the supplement. My apologies.

http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2011/11/14/1112058108.DCSupplemental/pnas.1112058108_SI.pdf#SM4



I don't think we can just put a radius to it really. The deposition patterns and reports are indicative of discontinuities with areas exhibiting high dose gradients. More likely, we will see some recommendation on a minimum safe distance, then use ongoing local surveys to locate and mark hotspots outside of that zone.

For example, Fukushima City has areas within it that are not only unfarmable, but uninhabitable. In Japan the limit is 2500 Bq/kg per Cs isotope for farming and about 10000 Bq/kg for livability. By contrast, some fields yielded harvests that were well within human consumption limits.

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/120711/full/475154a.html

What we are seeing is what we will get I suspect since gamma counter data is stabilized at around .4 uSv (this study conducted at Fukushima Medical University showed levels of 11.9 uSv in March)

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1111/1111.2395.pdf

Based on the reports I've seen from colleagues, I'd recommend 50km as a minimum safe distance with ongoing field surveys. The situation is still potentially dynamic until cold shutdown is achieved at Fukushima, so I'd hold my recommendation until that actually happens.

I've been invited to "tour" Fukushima. If I do wind up going I'll be sure to report a few of my findings.

Yeah, it's obvious that the wind direction post-fallout makes a big difference, I was just curious as to maybe a minimum perimeter. Scary to think that Pripyat/Chernobyl is still so radioactive.

[Agloco]

I was just curious as to maybe a minimum perimeter.

In the end, I'd probably go with 40-50km.

[mavs>spurs]

.... what?

what's so confusing? they recently found levels of radiation 100 times the normal level in areas of california. why would you want to eat anything from there?

[LnGrrrR]

Ag, any clue on how one would "treat" severe radiation poisoning? (Looking at the comments at 4 and 6 million.)

[Cry Havoc]

what's so confusing? they recently found levels of radiation 100 times the normal level in areas of california. why would you want to eat anything from there?

Because.. it's harmless? Normal background radiation is negligible. You have to go several orders of magnitude above that to even begin to have ANY noticeable affects. Your body is capable of dealing with nominal amounts of radiation.

[Cry Havoc]

Ag, any clue on how one would "treat" severe radiation poisoning? (Looking at the comments at 4 and 6 million.)

Depends on the level. At some point you can't do anything for someone, too much radiation is a death sentence.

However, from what I've read, antibiotics, blood clotting meds, and possibly stem cell transplants can manage the symptoms.

[Agloco]

Ag, any clue on how one would "treat" severe radiation poisoning? (Looking at the comments at 4 and 6 million.)


Depends on the level. At some point you can't do anything for someone, too much radiation is a death sentence.

However, from what I've read, antibiotics, blood clotting meds, and possibly stem cell transplants can manage the symptoms.

CH is correct if we're treating Hematopoeitic Syndrome.....roughly 1-3 Gy exposure. At the 6 million microseivert level, we are into Gastrointestinal Syndrome. This corresponds to a 6Gy dose for a pure gamma exposure (as with Cs - 137). The interventions CH listed are still relevant for GI Syndrome.

Infection prophylaxis is a must here also since the intestinal lining is being killed off. Also, aggressive parenteral nutrition and IV resuscitation are going to be the main keys. Depending on the exact dose, odds of survival are 50% or worse. Without medical intervention, mortality is 100%.

There is also work that looks at using anti-apoptotic meds to prevent cellular death.

[LnGrrrR]

So Ag, in English, they pretty much seal you in a bubble, give you some "please live cells!" medicine, and cross their fingers?

[Agloco]

So Ag, in English, they pretty much seal you in a bubble, give you some "please live cells!" medicine, and cross their fingers?

Crossing toes and any other body part that will comply is also advised.

[LnGrrrR]

Crossing toes and any other body part that will comply is also advised.

Nice to know that they have set procedures for this type of thing. :)

[mouse]

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=174441&highlight=Radiation&page=32


Sent from my iPhone

Nice back paddle from your privious posts

[Agloco]

Nice back paddle from your privious posts

Michael Phelps would disagree.

[mouse]

If only your salad tossing groupies in this topic knew how misguided you really are about the dangers of radiation.


Just an observation:
I find it interesting that folks will line up to get a CXR or CT without question, . It's a god dammed three ring circus tbh.

Might want to advise people to avoid bananas as well until this investigation takes place. :lol



^ This misguided man has no problem everyone dying from radiation comparing it to eating a banana of all things.

Your cult followers should be a little more cautious on who's salad they toss .
http://dingo.care2.com/pictures/c2c/share/39/398/834/398348_370.jpg

[Agloco]

If only your salad tossing groupies in this topic knew how misguided you really are about the dangers of radiation.



^ This misguided man has no problem everyone dying from radiation comparing it to eating a banana of all things.

Your cult followers should be a little more cautious on who's salad they toss .
http://dingo.care2.com/pictures/c2c/share/39/398/834/398348_370.jpg

Frankly, I'm surprised you didn't go with the puppy picture again. Variety is the spice of life though, right mouse?

[Agloco]

Btw, here is that entire quote which was so deftly edited by mouse:


Just an observation:

I find it interesting that folks will line up to get a CXR or CT without question, but remain in a tizzy over a modality that imparts around 1% of CXR dose and .01% of a typical CT dose. People need a clear, definitive voice to clarify the risks. It's a god dammed three ring circus tbh.

Might want to advise people to avoid bananas as well until this investigation takes place. :lol

The real concern should be for the operators. That's where the risk is.

[mouse]

Frankly, I'm surprised you didn't go with the puppy picture again.

I am shocked you left out the banana. I supposed if you was a plumber you would talk about how bad Drain o is to the pipes you always seem to have an agenda that help you sleep at night and stay employed.