Chazley's season preview 11-12 Season

[chazley]

FINALLY!

That was the collective response for millions of NBA fans around the globe, when the NBA announced early Saturday morning that a deal has tentatively been agreed upon. With the deal expected to be ratified by both sides as quickly as possible, training camps are scheduled to open December 9th, with games starting Christmas Day.

Last season, due to a terrible matchup and a needless Manu injury, the Spurs lost to the Grizzlies in a heartbreaking ending for the Spurs, who had one of the most surprising regular seasons in their storied history.

This season, the Spurs should have a huge chip on their shoulder. Collectively, our team has shed alot of age and added some great young talent the past few years. The big question, as is usually the case recently, is can our big 3 still play at a high level, and more importantly, stay healthy. If they can, there's no doubt in my mind we can be contenders.

Tim Duncan-
Last season: 13.4 PPG/8.9 RPG/2.7APG/3.0 BSPG

Duncan, going into his 15th season, is obviously nearing the end of a historic career. Widely regarded as the best PF to ever play in the NBA, Spurs fans were used to seeing a Duncan who could take over a game at any point of any game. This is no longer the case. He averaged career lows in nearly every category in 10-11, and I don't see that trend reversing this year. With no viable replacement on the roster, I expect to see Duncan give us 12/8 while playing about the same minutes as last year. We are likely to see Tim start the season strong while he's fresh, but the condensed version of the season will hurt Duncan. He's still our anchor on defense, where he remains one of the best in the game. Offensively though, Duncan can no longer compete at an elite level.

Manu Ginobili -
Last season: 17.4 PPG/3.7 RPG/4.9 APG/1.9 BSPG

Manu Ginobili started off the 10-11 season at a torrid pace, quickly becoming a top 3 MVP candidate to start the season. The Spurs were playing at a high pace, and Manu set the tone with his dominant play the first few months of the season. Unfortunately, Manu cooled off near the end of the season, and our team did as well. Manu is still the pulse of this team - without him, we struggle to play at a high level. So it was to be expected when he got injured that we would have a hard time getting through the playoffs. I expect Manu's numbers to fall back near his career averages this year, and he will probably go back down to the 27-28 MPG average he is accustomed to. With our team as deep as it is, we could also see him return to the bench and being a top contender for sixth man of the year, while Neal starts. Would not be surprised to see Manu in the All-Star game again this year if the Spurs continue their trend of starting hot.

Tony Parker-
Last season: 17.5 PPG/3.1 RPG/6.6 APG/1.2 BSPG

Perhaps the most disappointing Spur last year was Tony Parker. Fresh off a contract extension, and with Manu/Tim aging, many fans expected Tony to take the reins and lead our franchise. While he led the team in scoring (barely), I think all of us were left expecting more. In a matchup against Mike Conley he was supposed to dominate, he instead was simply a wash. Tony is too young to be on the downside of his career - he averaged 22 PPG in 08-09, and he should still be able to reach those totals theoretically. It does feel like Tony lacks the desire to be great. With George Hill gone, Tony will be leaned on like never before. While signing a veteran PG is to be expected in the coming weeks, currently we only have Cory Joseph backing him up. This year is Tony's biggest ever: If he doesn't return to 08-09 form this season, he never will, and it will be a shame.

Richard Jefferson-
Last season: 11 PPG/3.8 RPG/1.3 APG/0.9 BSPG

Perhaps the most frustrating Spur in recent memory, RJ was brought in two years ago to add scoring and athleticism to our team. The first year was a disappointment relative to expectations, but it seemed that early on last season RJ finally GOT IT. He was playing at an exceptional level in November/December, shooting lights out from 3 and showing a newfound desire to attack the rim. Alot of this had to do with the Spurs new uptempo system, where RJ has thrived his entire career. Being put in a position to succeed was what RJ needed, and our team benefitted.

Then the year 2011 came. The Spurs tempo started to drop (confusingly), and so did RJ's numbers. By the end of the year, he was basically a traffic cone on the court. While his shooting percentage, especially from 3, held steady, he simply stopped being aggressive. He attempted double digit shots only four times in the year 2011, compared to 18 times in the first two months of the season over a much smaller sample size. After opening night, when he was 7-10 from the FT line, he never went to the line more than 9 times in a game for the rest of the year. The Spurs are simply BETTER as constructed to be an uptempo team, with RJ being a large part of that. RJ deserves some blame as well - he can't play down to the tempo of the game. Honestly, is there a more exciting moment in a Spurs game than when RJ puts his head down and gets to the FT line?

I think RJ gets closer the the 13 PPG mark this year, if he doesn't get cut by the new amnesty clause. I've seen him do it. He was remarkable at times last year. But he HAS to be AGGRESSIVE. If the Spurs return to playing uptempo, he has the potential to put up 15 PPG. He will get the minutes if he plays well.

My Spurs season projection: 48-18, 1st in Western Conference, lose in NBA Finals to Miami Heat.

[ElNono]

^^ Whose troll is this?

[Blackjack]

Mine.

[Blackjack]

I own him.

[Blackjack]

Seriously...

[ElNono]

Figures... hey Captain!

[Blackjack]

Hola - feel free to translate. ;)

[Kori Ellis]

Pop is probably going to micro-manage Timmy and Manu's minutes this year more than ever, even with the shortened season. But I don't expect those two to wind down their careers in anything but a relentless fashion. Despite everyone writing off Duncan, I think he has a good year left in him.

And though Parker sucked in the playoffs last year, he had a pretty dominant (rather than disappointing) season all around. He shot better than in his heralded 08-09 season, and the rest of his stats were about the same. He just didn't shoot nearly as much (thus the drop in PPG). However, he definitely was subpar in the postseason.

I don't really expect much from the Spurs this year (and I didn't last year). So whatever happens, I'll probably be pleasantly surprise.

Less RJ/Bonner/Blair, more of anything else, please.


Hola - feel free to translate. ;)

LOL

[ElNono]

Hola - feel free to translate. ;)

Hi

Disclaimer: This is just my translation, doesn't mean it's accurate.

[Nathan89]

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRxDN9BnylxBMGztfsSHzCIcj9ULiPy8 GGmSluocneosW6CUy-RGA

[Sean Cagney]

Pop is probably going to micro-manage Timmy and Manu's minutes this year more than ever, even with the shortened season. But I don't expect those two to wind down their careers in anything but a relentless fashion. Despite everyone writing off Duncan, I think he has a good year left in him.

And though Parker sucked in the playoffs last year, he had a pretty dominant (rather than disappointing) season all around. He shot better than in his heralded 08-09 season, and the rest of his stats were about the same. He just didn't shoot nearly as much (thus the drop in PPG). However, he definitely was subpar in the postseason.

I don't really expect much from the Spurs this year (and I didn't last year). So whatever happens, I'll probably be pleasantly surprise.

Less RJ/Bonner/Blair, more of anything else, please.



LOL

^^^^^^^ This.

[The Truth #6]

Finally we can stop the hatred of the owners and players and unite around our shared dislike for Bonner.

The Spurs these days are built to be more of a regular season team - not a playoff team, as we saw. If the Spurs can remain well coached and composed, they should be able to win more regular season games then they deserve based on the helter skelter schedule of the shortened season.

On the other hand, their overall talent level is lower due to the decline of the Big 3 and so being well coached might be offset by just not being good enough to compete.

It will be interesting to see how Pop approaches the season: will he try to simplify given the lack of a real training camp? And if so, what will he try to simplify? I imagine he'll focus on defense as best as he can, but no telling how well this unit can actually defend.

So...I expect a lot of guard play/jump shooting like last year and who knows what on defense.

And lastly, Blair: I expect him to be grossly out of shape and be worse then last year...but hopefully not!

[Sean Cagney]

Hey above Chazley is a huge fan of BONNER!!!!!!! He seriously got at me last year a few times on BONNER! He is a fan of that clown! So we can't all unite yet on our hatred for BONNNERRRR! He is trash yeah, but some idiots still like him.

[ElNono]

Hey above Chazley is a huge fan of BONNER!!!!!!! He seriously got at me last year a few times on BONNER! He is a fan of that clown! So we can't all unite yet on our hatred for BONNNERRRR! He is trash yeah, but some idiots still like him.

He was used in the wrong role... for the past 3 years :cry :cry :cry

[Sean Cagney]

He was used in the wrong role... for the past 3 years :cry :cry :cry

Yeah he was! He should be a 10 MPG specialty player, nothing more or less! He is a three shooter at times, if he is off get him outta the game because he does nothing at all if his three is not dropping! NO HE DOES NOT HUSTLE and if he does he suks still on the boards and D! He is a shooter, if it's off bench him immediately! POP get the memo this year please.

[DrSteffo]

Chaz do u still believe in Roger Mason Jr too? What about Santa Claus? I believe in beer and big boobs but will still support my team.

[Brazil]

Chaz is Roger Mason Jr

[DeadlyDynasty]

5/10 trolljob...like the effort

[Stalin]

what everyone wants to really know from chazley predictions, is how hot will bonner get in this season's playoffs, tbh

[Mel_13]

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=157895

[phxspurfan]

What's with the dogging on Blair? He was actually pretty decent at times during the regular season last year. Of course against the tallest of trees he struggles, but would Splitter have been the answer? Probably not.

[Mel_13]

What's with the dogging on Blair? He was actually pretty decent at times during the regular season last year. Of course against the tallest of trees he struggles, but would Splitter have been the answer? Probably not.

The guy got fat during the season. The very least we should be able to expect from professional athletes is that they maintain their fitness.

[ElNono]

He was depressed :cry

Whataburger offered help :cry

[chazley]

Pop is probably going to micro-manage Timmy and Manu's minutes this year more than ever, even with the shortened season. But I don't expect those two to wind down their careers in anything but a relentless fashion. Despite everyone writing off Duncan, I think he has a good year left in him.

And though Parker sucked in the playoffs last year, he had a pretty dominant (rather than disappointing) season all around. He shot better than in his heralded 08-09 season, and the rest of his stats were about the same. He just didn't shoot nearly as much (thus the drop in PPG). However, he definitely was subpar in the postseason.

I don't really expect much from the Spurs this year (and I didn't last year). So whatever happens, I'll probably be pleasantly surprise.

Less RJ/Bonner/Blair, more of anything else, please.



LOL

I agree that Duncan has a good year left in him.. just not at an elite level. 12-8 would be a 'good' season by most NBA standards.

I disagree that Parker had a dominant season last year. If we compare it to his 08-09 campaign, which I would say is probably the best we will ever see Parker, his shooting percentage was only .13% worse than last year, and he put up nearly 4 more shots per game. He was much more confident on his mid range shot back then as well, and a huge criticism of Parker last season was he seemed to lose confidence in his mid range game. If we adjust his stats last season and say maybe 2 of the 4 shots per game he took less than 08-09 season were mid range shots, where the league average is probably in the 41-42% range, you can see why his relative percentage might've dropped. It's still an important shot for Parker for obvious reasons, even if the percentage is relatively low to his overall FG%.

Also, just want to say to all the Bonner people, you're all looking like idiots, because you're essentially agreeing with me because I've said all along he is a great asset to this team, in a 10-15 minute role. Where this gets misconstrued is when I have to defend Bonner as being a very important piece in this role, and it comes off as me having some sort of mancrush on Matt Bonner.

On this team, Matt Bonner is a very valuable piece. He lead the league last year in 3-pt FG% - to say that a guy who led the league is detrimental to our team, which relies on the outside shot, is simply asinine. Pop obviously overuses him, and in general doesn't put him in a great position to succeed. I think he should be playing the 3 in certain situations. The guy plays his butt off. Honestly, I think a big problem of his is he's white, so he gets no benefit of the doubt in most situations as a basketball player. He was 3rd on our team last year in adjusted plus/minus. He should average 12-13 MPG.

That's my official standing on Matt Bonner. Funny thing is, most of you agree with me on most points but you're too fucking dumb to realize it cause I'm on a much higher level of basketball understanding than 90% of you.

[chazley]

The guy got fat during the season. The very least we should be able to expect from professional athletes is that they maintain their fitness.

Agreed. Was very disappointed in Blair last year. After some of his performances in his rookie season, I thought he had the potential to be a Paul Millsap-type. As it turns out, he has an unbelieveable motor, but a relatively poor work ethic. I hope that has changed this summer, and I've heard that it has. This will be a big year for Blair, although I'm not convinced he finishes the year as a Spur.

[chazley]

Chaz do u still believe in Roger Mason Jr too? What about Santa Claus? I believe in beer and big boobs but will still support my team.

Santa Claus is obviously real. Just turns out he wasn't who we thought he was. Kind of a reverse Dennis Green.

I still believe Roger Mason can be a valuable piece of a team, yes. I believe Pop put him in a terrible position trying to make him a backup PG on our team, and it ruined his confidence. As strictly a 3-pt shooter and occasionally running off some screens, he can still positively add to any basketball squad coming off the bench in limited minutes to provide scoring.

[chazley]

Seriously...

You seem to be butthurt that I never thanked you for the beautiful comment you gave me. So let me take the time to express gratitude that you respect me. I'm glad to have some people below me that appreciate my opinions and what I bring to the site.

[Blackjack]

I respect me some me.

[Russo21]

Does it matter? Spurs have no shot at a title with the current lineup. Sad but true. We all know what we need but we arent gonna get it. So fuck it.

[Blackjack]

Fuck what?

It?

With what - and how?

[ElNono]

Also, just want to say to all the Bonner people, you're all looking like idiots, because you're essentially agreeing with me because I've said all along he is a great asset to this team, in a 10-15 minute role. Where this gets misconstrued is when I have to defend Bonner as being a very important piece in this role, and it comes off as me having some sort of mancrush on Matt Bonner.

On this team, Matt Bonner is a very valuable piece. He lead the league last year in 3-pt FG% - to say that a guy who led the league is detrimental to our team, which relies on the outside shot, is simply asinine. Pop obviously overuses him, and in general doesn't put him in a great position to succeed. I think he should be playing the 3 in certain situations. The guy plays his butt off. Honestly, I think a big problem of his is he's white, so he gets no benefit of the doubt in most situations as a basketball player. He was 3rd on our team last year in adjusted plus/minus. He should average 12-13 MPG.

That's my official standing on Matt Bonner. Funny thing is, most of you agree with me on most points but you're too fucking dumb to realize it cause I'm on a much higher level of basketball understanding than 90% of you.

:lmao:lmao:lmao

[ElNono]

I still believe Roger Mason can be a valuable piece of a team, yes. I believe Pop put him in a terrible position trying to make him a backup PG on our team, and it ruined his confidence. As strictly a 3-pt shooter and occasionally running off some screens, he can still positively add to any basketball squad coming off the bench in limited minutes to provide scoring.

Full MLE :lmao

[chazley]

Full MLE :lmao

Yea that was stupid. At the end of the 2009 season he probably would've gotten it, but I should've known that after his disastrous 2010 season he wouldn't get more than the minimum.

[5in10]

I expect big things from James Anderson. I could see him starting by the end of the year, with Manu coming off the bench.

[chazley]

I expect big things from James Anderson. I could see him starting by the end of the year, with Manu coming off the bench.

I don't think it's likely, but definitely a possibility. James was very impressive during his first 6 games before his injury, and I still think he can play at a high level for us. If Manu does come off the bench though, I suspect it will be behind Gary Neal, not JA.

[chazley]

Does it matter? Spurs have no shot at a title with the current lineup. Sad but true. We all know what we need but we arent gonna get it. So fuck it.

I'd be shocked if Spurs don't make a big move before the season. Too many players are being associated with interest from the Spurs right now... something huge is definitely brewing...

[therealtruth]

I agree that Duncan has a good year left in him.. just not at an elite level. 12-8 would be a 'good' season by most NBA standards.

I disagree that Parker had a dominant season last year. If we compare it to his 08-09 campaign, which I would say is probably the best we will ever see Parker, his shooting percentage was only .13% worse than last year, and he put up nearly 4 more shots per game. He was much more confident on his mid range shot back then as well, and a huge criticism of Parker last season was he seemed to lose confidence in his mid range game. If we adjust his stats last season and say maybe 2 of the 4 shots per game he took less than 08-09 season were mid range shots, where the league average is probably in the 41-42% range, you can see why his relative percentage might've dropped. It's still an important shot for Parker for obvious reasons, even if the percentage is relatively low to his overall FG%.

Also, just want to say to all the Bonner people, you're all looking like idiots, because you're essentially agreeing with me because I've said all along he is a great asset to this team, in a 10-15 minute role. Where this gets misconstrued is when I have to defend Bonner as being a very important piece in this role, and it comes off as me having some sort of mancrush on Matt Bonner.

On this team, Matt Bonner is a very valuable piece. He lead the league last year in 3-pt FG% - to say that a guy who led the league is detrimental to our team, which relies on the outside shot, is simply asinine. Pop obviously overuses him, and in general doesn't put him in a great position to succeed. I think he should be playing the 3 in certain situations. The guy plays his butt off. Honestly, I think a big problem of his is he's white, so he gets no benefit of the doubt in most situations as a basketball player. He was 3rd on our team last year in adjusted plus/minus. He should average 12-13 MPG.

That's my official standing on Matt Bonner. Funny thing is, most of you agree with me on most points but you're too fucking dumb to realize it cause I'm on a much higher level of basketball understanding than 90% of you.

Bonner was sixth in plus/minus but he did lead the team in true shooting percentage. Basically when Bonner goes in he should take as many shots as possible. At the same time if he's not hustling on defense and for rebounds he hurts the team. And if he's going to foul somebody he should take a hard foul and prevent the and-1.

[therealtruth]

I am tired of the Manu coming of the bench talk. If this were the Lakers for instance we wouldn't be talking about Kobe coming of the bench. Manu deserves to start. For a guy who should've been a perennial all star he's come off the bench too much. Even Pop realizes he was wrong in the past and has said he won't bring Manu off the bench anymore out of respect.

[Fireball]

I am tired of the Manu coming of the bench talk. If this were the Lakers for instance we wouldn't be talking about Kobe coming of the bench. Manu deserves to start. For a guy who should've been a perennial all star he's come off the bench too much. Even Pop realizes he was wrong in the past and has said he won't bring Manu off the bench anymore out of respect.

Of course Manu is starter material, but him coming of the bench might become a necessity if the Spurs don't acquire a solid back-up point guard. If not and if Anderson looks good in camp he could start and Manu could lead the second unit sharing point guard duties with Neal. I would not feel comfortable with Neal running point alone.

Putting Kobe on the bench is unrealistic ... he just would not do it.

[ElNono]

Of course Manu is starter material, but him coming of the bench might become a necessity if the Spurs don't acquire a solid back-up point guard.

For 10 mins a night, a serviceable backup would do. Count me in the camp that thinks you should start your best team, and that includes Manu.

[Fireball]

For 10 mins a night, a serviceable backup would do. Count me in the camp that thinks you should start your best team, and that includes Manu.

Lets see which PG the Spurs FO will bring in. But serviceable means better than Chris Quinn, does it?

And then hopefully Splitter starts as well ... I want to see him and Manu on the court together ...