Japan Times: Realpolitik unfolds in the South China Sea

[Winehole23]

Observing the diplomatic maneuvering over the South China Sea issues in the runup to and including the July and November Bali summits was like watching a multi-act Shakespearian play unfold. The main protagonist was China, which was bedeviled by several nymphs — the counter claimants to the South China Sea islands and maritime space.http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/eo20111130a1.html

[Winehole23]

Just prior to the November Bali meetings, the political context changed dramatically when the U.S. announced its foreign and military policy "pivot" toward Asia including the "rotation" of up to 2, 500 U.S. troops air and naval assets through Darwin, Australia. This upset the strategic apple cart, inserting the U.S.-China rivalry into the ASEAN security paradigm and the efforts to achieve enduring peace in the South China Sea.


The U.S. has insisted that ASEAN must develop a "clear position" vis a vis China and that the competing claims must be settled in a multilateral forum according to therules of international law, including the Law of the Sea. Moreover, U.S. President Barack Obama said China must "obey the rules". But China is expected to counter that the U.S. alone among major naval powers has not ratified that treaty.



As one Asian analyst put it, "pressure can be good; but too much pressure can crack the fragile security architecture and split ASEAN." While several ASEAN countries supported the U.S. move, some had reservations. Predictably, the Philippines supported the U.S. "pivot" and involvement in the South China Sea disputes. But other ASEAN members were more wary, including Singapore and Malaysia.