2011-12 Spurs Preview - Part 1: The Big Three Requisites

[timvp]

With the compressed yet surprisingly quiet free agency period for the Spurs coming to an end and the start of the regular season a week away, attention turns to the increasingly daunting task of capturing the franchise's fifth NBA championship. While I've been pessimistic about San Antonio's chances without an acquisition to address at least one of the handful of the team's weaknesses, I still hold out some hope.

How much hope? Not much, honestly. However, it does help that the Western Conference appears to be in flux. The reigning champs have a markedly different group of players in Mavericks uniforms this season, while the perennial powerhouse Lakers are dealing with their share of turmoil. The Thunder could be great, as could the newly-created Clippers and the up-and-coming Grizzlies, though a continuance of growing pains is possible.

As it stands, I give the Spurs about a ten percent chance of coming out of the West. To win it all, I'd say the Spurs have a three or four percent chance. It's not much of a chance … but it's a chance nonetheless.

If the Spurs are to turn their slim hopes into another parade, three things must absolutely happen.

1. A Return to Defensive Supremacy
Since the 2007 title, the Spurs have slowly regressed from elite to average on the defensive end of the court. While the loss of Bruce Bowen and the aging of Tim Duncan are the two largest factors in the decline, a de-emphasizing of the importance of defense by the coaching staff has also inarguably occurred. In the last couple of years, rotations have no longer been based on defensive competence. In fact, measures have been taken to alter the proven defensive blueprint to retrofit offensively oriented lineups.

That must stop. If the Spurs are going to play championship level basketball again, a suffocating defense will play the leading role. The first step is for the coaching staff to revert to their demanding ways. Role players should be required to prioritize defense or else face time on the pine. Lineups should be determined on defensive aptitude. The offense will undoubtedly suffer, but so be it, let it suffer. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are talented enough offensively to guide the Spurs to victories in low-scoring, defensive battles.

2. A Peak in the Playoffs
The Spurs have played great basketball at times over the last few years. For fleeting moments, championship caliber basketball. Unfortunately, the moments have taken place during the regular season. Come playoff time, these teams have sputtered to the finish line.

With 66 games in 120 days, it will be even more difficult for San Antonio to peak at the right time. The regular season will be about survival; one ill-timed injury could have the Spurs fighting for the postseason lives. That said, the Spurs must approach these 66 games with the big picture in mind. Finishing with the best record possible shouldn't be the focus. The focus instead should be to keep the troops adequately rested by limiting minutes and, if necessary, even having the Big Three sit out games. As the Spurs found out last season, seeding is meaningless if the squad is out of gas come the postseason.

3. A Youthful Uprising
The front office hasn't been very subtle in their wish to rebuild this team on the fly. Instead of relying on wily veteran role players, the Spurs must now rely on unproven young players. Although this change isn't necessarily an obstacle, it is without question a riskier route.

The first step in getting production out of the youth is for the coaching staff to trust the youth. As we've seen over the years, this first step is much easier said than done. Tiago Splitter needs to spend a lot of time next to Duncan. Kawhi Leonard needs playing time to learn, fail and grow. Gary Neal needs to be allowed to spread his wings. DeJuan Blair needs time to continue the maturation process. James Anderson needs to be given a green light to build on a strong training camp. Without meeting a vast majority of these needs, the roster simply isn't good enough. The coaching staff holds the keys, let's hope the youth -- and, in reality, the team -- is given a chance.

[lefty]

Thanks


We are so fucked

[manufan10]

If the coaching staff doesn't give Leonard enough playing time, then I won't understand what the point of trading George Hill would be. Leonard has to get a lot of playing time to justify that move.

[Dex]

I hate to play the pessimist, but...the problem is, Matt Bonner spits in the face of all three of those things, and there is no sign of him being removed from the lineup anytime soon. Hell, with the current rotation of bigs, Bonner may end up having a bigger role than ever before, which is just a recipe for disaster.

[Interrohater]

Will we be able to reach any of those three goals if the young guys aren't everything they're hyped to be? If JA and Kawhi can mature quickly and become great defensive presences, then yes. If they struggle, then definitely not as Pop will be reluctant to play them and our defense will struggle as well as hurt the rotation, keeping them from peaking in the playoffs. I think out of all of those, the defensive supremacy is the most crucial to any semblance of success that they might have this season.

[DBMethos]

Thanks for the preview.

This could get ugly.

[Guajalote]

So you're sayin' there's a chance?

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:toast

[objective]

If the coaching staff doesn't give Leonard enough playing time, then I won't understand what the point of trading George Hill would be. Leonard has to get a lot of playing time to justify that move.

It would just mean that the point of trading Hill was to get something for him before he was an RFA because RJ's contract so crippled the team's finances that they wouldn't be able to keep him.

[weebo]

Unlike many posters here, I give the Spurs a good chance coming out of the west. If healthy, I still have faith that Manu, Tim, Tony and Pop can put together one more great run to capture that elusive fifth championship.

[Mr Bones]

Chuck Hayes failed his physical and his contract has been voided. Maybe Sacramento would be interested in Dejuan Blair, who would be cheaper version of Hayes for them. I'd make that trade for Donte Greene, a 6'11" SF who is a good defender and could play some minutes as a tall though thin "smallball" power forward. Sacramento has three SFs, and would probably be interested. Greene had a good second year and a disappointing third year (offensively at least), but I think his upside is greater than Blair's.

[mexicanjunior]

If Jefferson, Blair and Bonner see significant playing time (which they well), all three of your objectives will be shit on within the first half of the condensed season. That said, 2 is a moot point because I don't believe this team will reach the playoffs...which is probably for the best considering lottery balls is all the hope this team has left to try and win a title with Duncan before he is gone for good.

[objective]

Lots of good stuff, but reality unfortunately crushes what little hope there is.



1. A Return to Defensive Supremacy
... In the last couple of years, rotations have no longer been based on defensive competence. In fact, measures have been taken to alter the proven defensive blueprint to retrofit offensively oriented lineups.

That must stop.

Based on history, it won't stop.


Lineups should be determined on defensive aptitude. The offense will undoubtedly suffer, but so be it, let it suffer.

Based on history, that won't happen.



2. A Peak in the Playoffs
.... As the Spurs found out last season, seeding is meaningless if the squad is out of gas come the postseason.

They didn't find out that seeding is meaningless. Pop and crew go on and on and on about how many regular season games they won. The only thing they found out was new excuses.




3. A Youthful Uprising

The first step in getting production out of the youth is for the coaching staff to trust the youth. . . . The coaching staff holds the keys, let's hope the youth -- and, in reality, the team -- is given a chance.

Even though that's what they should do, based on what we know and from history, they won't trust the youth. One big reason is the math of minutes: because that garbage man Jefferson is here, that almost certainly suggests that either Leonard, Anderson or Neal will get zero/fringe time, while the other two won't get the time they need.

If they didn't plan on playing Jefferson a good chunk of minutes, they would have amnestied him. They didn't keep him to bench him.

So now that he's getting his bulk of the time at SF, and Manu and SG and Parker at PG, what's left? TJ Ford behind Parker, Neal behind Manu, And either Leonard or JA cleaning up after RJ's stool leakage. One of those guys will be missing out, and the other probably won't be getting enough minutes anyway to make the necessary leaps forward in his game.

That means no trust for the youth, no hope for the youth, no chance for the youth, nothing.

Pop and RC wanted RJ and his pathetic minute soaking play back, they're going to get their money's worth. They deserve it.

[Xevious]

So now that he's getting his bulk of the time at SF, and Manu and SG and Parker at PG, what's left? TJ Ford behind Parker, Neal behind Manu, And either Leonard or JA cleaning up after RJ's stool leakage. One of those guys will be missing out, and the other probably won't be getting enough minutes anyway to make the necessary leaps forward in his game.

That means no trust for the youth, no hope for the youth, no chance for the youth, nothing.

Pop and RC wanted RJ and his pathetic minute soaking play back, they're going to get their money's worth. They deserve it.

That isn't necessarily a bad thing with this condensed season. Manu will need games off, and there will undoubtedly be injuries.

[lmbebo]

its going to be a long and frustrating year.

[benefactor]

My mindset going into the season:

Short of hitting another homerun in the draft, Spur fan probably needs to prepare themselves for a long time being out of contention. I think they will remain a fixture in the playoffs as they have only missed them a handful of times in their 44 year existance, but I don't see them as contenders again for quite some time.

Spur fan really needs to keep things in perspective moving forward. Life has been really, really good to you. Beyond the 4 titles and 50 win streak, most of you are probably too young to remember the Spurs actually missing the playoffs and I'm betting only a select few remember it happening twice. Missing the playoffs twice in the past 21 seasons is a ton of success...especially when you consider a team like the Nets who have been around just as long as the Spurs and have only made the playoffs 10 times over that same 21 year span. You could also be Hawks fan...who only a few seasons ago was at the end of watching their team go 8 straight seasons without a post season appearance.

Whatever the future brings, hold your head up and be thankful. I know I am.
I would implore all Spurs fans to do themselves a favor and adopt the same. Yes, it's frustrating to go through the offseason and see very little accomplished to better the team(my own frustration posts aren't hard to find), but let's be realistic...was there much that could be done in the first place? Even if they did amnesty RJ and wound up with the full MLE, what impact player is going that is going to accept that type of money to come here? There isn't one...because early/mid 00's Bruce Bowen and Tim Duncan aren't walking through that door. They were the engine that made Spurs defense possible. As soon as they ceased to exist the window closed.

What do I want out of this year? Well, since the window is nailed shut they might as well go back to what they did at the beginning of last year. You have to admit that it was a helluva lot of fun watching the Spurs play that way...and if we are being honest, it's the best way to deal with having to keep RJ around. He thrives in that style of basketball. It will also play to the strengths of the teams athletic group of youngsters. They will once again flame out in the playoffs, but they will win a lot of games and we won't be subjected to a team trying to go back to what made it great when one glance at the roster tells you that is nowhere near close to possible.

[Dex]

My mindset going into the season:

I would implore all Spurs fans to do themselves a favor and adopt the same. Yes, it's frustrating to go through the offseason and see very little accomplished to better the team(my own frustration posts aren't hard to find), but let's be realistic...was there much that could be done in the first place? Even if they did amnesty RJ and wound up with the full MLE, what impact player is going that is going to accept that type of money to come here? There isn't one...because early/mid 00's Bruce Bowen and Tim Duncan aren't walking through that door. They were the engine that made Spurs defense possible. As soon as they ceased to exist the window closed.

What do I want out of this year? Well, since the window is nailed shut they might as well go back to what they did at the beginning of last year. You have to admit that it was a helluva lot of fun watching the Spurs play that way...and if we are being honest, it's the best way to deal with having to keep RJ around. He thrives in that style of basketball. It will also play to the strengths of the teams athletic group of youngsters. They will once again flame out in the playoffs, but they will win a lot of games and we won't be subjected to a team trying to go back to what made it great when one glance at the roster tells you that is nowhere near close to possible.

I'm kind of torn on this opinion. Part of me wants to agree that the Spurs should just go back to the free-wheeling, shot-chucking, fun-to-watch style that got them the #1 seed last season. It's great for fans, and gives us lots to discuss about how great this team COULD be, even though most of know that style isn't going to carry them anywhere in the playoffs.

On the other hand, the worst spot to finish is in the top of the regular season, bottom of the playoffs bunch. Then the Spurs get nothing out of the playoffs (aside from getting to watch some playoff games, which may just be as frustrating as the Memphis series was), and they also get nothing out of the draft. I was okay with being at the bottom of the draft when the Spurs had a CHANCE to ring....but going to the big dance just to sit in the corner doesn't help the franchise going forward.

The other part of me would rather see the Spurs return to their defensive roots, come hell or high water. If they lose, so be it. If they miss the playoffs, so be it. But I'd rather them teach the young guns that is the way you play Spurs basketball, so that they can get used to it going forward, instead of pretending to be something they are not. Playing like the San Antonio Suns breeds bad habits which would just need to be broken, moves us further from the winning philosophy, and only wins them enough games to get a shitty draft pick.

[benefactor]

I'm kind of torn on this opinion. Part of me wants to agree that the Spurs should just go back to the free-wheeling, shot-chucking, fun-to-watch style that got them the #1 seed last season. It's great for fans, and gives us lots to discuss about how great this team COULD be, even though most of know that style isn't going to carry them anywhere in the playoffs.

On the other hand, the worst spot to finish is in the top of the regular season, bottom of the playoffs bunch. Then the Spurs get nothing out of the playoffs (aside from getting to watch some playoff games, which may just be as frustrating as the Memphis series was), and they also get nothing out of the draft. I was okay with being at the bottom of the draft when the Spurs had a CHANCE to ring....but going to the big dance just to sit in the corner doesn't help the franchise going forward.

The other part of me would rather see the Spurs return to their defensive roots, come hell or high water. If they lose, so be it. If they miss the playoffs, so be it. But I'd rather them teach the young guns that is the way you play Spurs basketball, so that they can get used to it going forward, instead of pretending to be something they are not. Playing like the San Antonio Suns breeds bad habits which would just need to be broken, moves us further from the winning philosophy, and only wins them enough games to get a shitty draft pick.
That's an acceptable viewpoint. I guess I just want to get the most out of what's left instead of watching the team struggle night in and night out. TBH...I don't know that Pop is truly committed to getting back to the type of basketball that we all know as Spurs basketball...and that the winning philosophy you speak of is something that only exists in mind of a coach who led the teams of the banners that we currently see hanging from the rafters. I think the move back to defensive principles and personnel will not be fully instituted until another coach takes the reins. I can only hope that the next coach will have the same passion for defensive play that we saw in the Pop of the championship years.

[024]

So you're sayin' there's a chance?

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:toast
:lol

[phxspurfan]

What do I want out of this year? Well, since the window is nailed shut they might as well go back to what they did at the beginning of last year. You have to admit that it was a helluva lot of fun watching the Spurs play that way...and if we are being honest, it's the best way to deal with having to keep RJ around. He thrives in that style of basketball. It will also play to the strengths of the teams athletic group of youngsters. They will once again flame out in the playoffs, but they will win a lot of games and we won't be subjected to a team trying to go back to what made it great when one glance at the roster tells you that is nowhere near close to possible.

this...but I'm not so sure the door is nailed shut considering the changes made in the West. Like others have said with this style last year, if we didn't play Memphis in round 1 or just made it past them with a healthy Manu, there's no telling how far we could have gone. I would say we could make it to the finals again.

[Tyrone Jenkins]

this...but I'm not so sure the door is nailed shut considering the changes made in the West. Like others have said with this style last year, if we didn't play Memphis in round 1 or just made it past them with a healthy Manu, there's no telling how far we could have gone. I would say we could make it to the finals again.

Trust - it's nailed shut.

Even if every player on the team plays to the utmost of their ability, the team is a 5th seed at best...

[Vic Petro]

I think the team will have a better regular season than anyone expects, and then crash and burn in the playoffs.

[Mr. Body]

I think the team will have a better regular season than anyone expects, and then crash and burn in the playoffs.

Like last year!

[thOOdee]

So you're sayin' there's a chance?

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:toast

hahahahahaha

[jjktkk]

Pop abandoned his defensive princples because he no longer has the players to make it work. So far, all of the FO moves in the past few years that have failed. Be it that Mahimni is gonna team with Duncan to become the next twin towers, to Bogans being the defensive "centerpiece". RJ was suppose to be at least average on defense, but so far hes been nothing but an overpaid bust. Bringing in McDyess was suppose to help anchor the defensive front line,but last year showed that he has lost a step defensively. The FO, have, in recent drafts, selected players known for their defensive ability in college: Hairston, Hill, Gist, and now Leonard. Fans can shit on Pop and RC for their allowing this team to regress defensively, but imo, they have made concentrated efforts to improve the teams overall defense. I also think Pop, unlike previous years, will play the young players, provided if he believes their ready to contribute. Last year he was giving consistant minutes to Neal and Anderson, before Anderson got injured. I know alot of folks on here believed Pop really screwed up on not playing Splitter enough in the regular season, to have him ready for the playoffs, but from what little playing time Splitter got, he looked raw and up and down, as far as performance, basically performing like a NBA rookie. If Pop is the reason for Splitter's inconsistant play, then Pop royally screwed up, but to me personally, I will give Pop benefit of the doubt, as far as determining if Splitter was ready or not last year. As far as this season goes, the big 3s health will be still be paramount, but finding a suitable big is also important, along with the continued improvement of Neal and Anderson. Anything Leonard contributes this year will be a bonus.

[ElNono]

^ Some of that is true, and as baseline bum said, it's hard to go into the draft and come out with a Bowen replacement. All that said, Pop really has been way too lenient as far as holding players accountable for defensive fuckups. Manu, Tony... None of those guys were great defenders out of the gate. But it took Pop getting in their face, lighting up a fire under their asses, etc to make them understand that if they wanted playing time, they needed to leave it all on the defensive side.

That kind of accountability is simply gone. And so players don't give a shit when they get repeatedly scored on. I look at Blair after getting abused and abused, and I never see him getting upset with himself. At least Matty puts forth the effort.

Some of that is going to have to come back if we're to improve.

[Obstructed_View]

What's the percentage of coming out of the west when Matt Bonner is the opening day starter?

[jjktkk]

^ Some of that is true, and as baseline bum said, it's hard to go into the draft and come out with a Bowen replacement. All that said, Pop really has been way too lenient as far as holding players accountable for defensive fuckups. Manu, Tony... None of those guys were great defenders out of the gate. But it took Pop getting in their face, lighting up a fire under their asses, etc to make them understand that if they wanted playing time, they needed to leave it all on the defensive side.

That kind of accountability is simply gone. And so players don't give a shit when they get repeatedly scored on. I look at Blair after getting abused and abused, and I never see him getting upset with himself. At least Matty puts forth the effort.

Some of that is going to have to come back if we're to improve.

That is a great point about Pop faling to hold other players accountable. Could it be he doesn't see any potential in,for ex. Blair, RJ, Bonner, etc....? Or is hes just tired of beating a dead horse?

[jjktkk]

What's the percentage of coming out of the west when Matt Bonner is the opening day starter?

I'll puke right along with you.

[jjktkk]

^ Some of that is true, and as baseline bum said, it's hard to go into the draft and come out with a Bowen replacement.

Very true, but I sure like the potential of Leonard.

[hsxvvd]

I hate to play the pessimist, but...the problem is, Matt Bonner spits in the face of all three of those things, and there is no sign of him being removed from the lineup anytime soon. Hell, with the current rotation of bigs, Bonner may end up having a bigger role than ever before, which is just a recipe for disaster.

This.

[Fabbs]

If the Spurs are to turn their slim hopes into another parade, three things must absolutely happen.

1. A Return to Defensive Supremacy
The first step is for the coaching staff to.......

3. A Youthful Uprising
The first step in getting production out of the youth is for the coaching staff to trust the youth. The coaching staff holds the keys, let's hope the youth -- and, in reality, the team -- is given a chance.
2 of 3 Requisites fulfillment is reliant upon the coaching staff.

[QUOTE Guajalote;]So you're sayin' there's a chance?:pop:

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[Amuseddaysleeper]

Do you guys think the Spurs may try to get Duncan to play out more on the perimeter to preserve his body? I think if they ever do pair up Tiago/TD in the starting lineup (I can dream, can't I?) wouldn't it be better to have Tiago bang down there while Duncan just sticks to the elbow and goes for his trademark bank shot?

[Bruno]

I fully agree with all three points but it's impossible to do. Spurs don't have the roster to have some kind of "defensive supremacy". Spurs front office should have done some moves this summer to improve Spurs' defense but they did nothing.

[Hemotivo]

So you're sayin' there's a chance?

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:toast

:lmao

[Bill_Brasky]

Still need that bigman.

[dylankerouac]

Do you guys think the Spurs may try to get Duncan to play out more on the perimeter to preserve his body? I think if they ever do pair up Tiago/TD in the starting lineup (I can dream, can't I?) wouldn't it be better to have Tiago bang down there while Duncan just sticks to the elbow and goes for his trademark bank shot?

Would this work And more along the lines of, will Pop do this?

I'm sure Duncan's knees would appreciate it.