timvp
12-26-2011, 08:30 PM
Tim Duncan
http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/2406/duncan12p.jpg
At first glance, it appears as if Tim Duncan's production fell off a cliff last year. However, in reality, Duncan's level of statistically production was basically par for his career course -- he just played less minutes. His shooting, rebounding and passing numbers continue to be consistent on a per-minute basis.
Due to spending less time posting up in the paint in an effort to ease the burden on his aging joints, his scoring dropped to a career-low rate. Not only did he shoot less at the rim, he also didn't frequent the free throw line as much as usual.
This season, I expect Duncan's numbers to continue going south -- starting with his minutes per game. I also see his rate of rebounds, blocked shots and steals dipping a bit due to the the lack of available rest in the regular season. However, I think his scoring rate will remain at last season's level.
Manu Ginobili
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/929/ginobili12p.jpg
To begin last season, Manu Ginobili was playing at a near MVP level. He deservedly made the All-Star team for the second time in his career. Unfortunately, his level of play dipped as the season progressed. And then injury was added when he broke his arm during the last game of the season.
All told, Ginobili was still very good last year. He's passing better than he ever has in his career. His scoring is nearly at its peak. Only Ginobili's rebounding gives you a clue that he's 34 years old.
In this condensed schedule, Ginobili's production could depend on his ability to connect on three-pointers. He struggled a bit from deep last year and he can't afford a repeat of that. If Ginobili can hit threes, he can save his legs and he'd also find it easier to drive to the hoop when he decides to penetrate. If his three-point percentage falls further, we could witness a notable drop in production.
Tony Parker
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/9589/parker12p.jpg
In the regular season, Tony Parker bounced back from a forgettable 2009-10 campaign. He scored better, he shot better and his assists numbers were the best of his career -- all while using fewer possessions than the previous five seasons.
Unfortunately, Parker's strong regular season became moot after a horrendous showing the playoffs. Going into the series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Parker was San Antonio's No. 1 advantage. But, as we all remember, Parker ended up getting outplayed by Mike Conley. That, perhaps more than anything else, doomed the Spurs.
After a strong summer playing for (and in) France, I'm hoping that Parker is primed for big things. At 29, he's the member of the Big Three most able to survive the exhaustion of a 66-game, 126-day schedule. I expect his passing numbers to improve even further while retaining his scoring frequency.
Richard Jefferson
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/5100/jefferson12p.jpg
Richard Jefferson had a strong start to last season. After the first couple months, Jefferson's improvements made it look like the Spurs may have invested wisely in the small forward. However, Jefferson made less and less of an impact as the season progressed. By the playoffs, he had regressed to the point of invisibility.
This season, I expect him to rely more than ever on catch-and-shoot threes. His athleticism is waning (as is, most likely, his confidence) so asking him to do much more would be foolish. If he can hit three-pointers at a high rate and play adequate defense, I'd be happy enough.
DeJuan Blair
http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/9513/blair12p.jpg
Here's how DeJuan Blair's season went last year: named the starter, struggled early, rediscovered his rhythm, moved to the bench, ate a lot of fast food, got fat, ended up a non-factor. It wasn't exactly the type of sophomore season the Spurs hoped out of their bowling ball of a bigman.
This year, it appears as if Blair will begin as the starter once again. While I'm projecting him to improve on his last season's numbers, I'm also a bit worried. I'm worried that his athleticism may be in early decline due to his lack of ACLs. I'm also worried that his production could plummet if (or is it when?) he's moved to the bench due to being upset with his ever-changing role. No matter the case, we'll know a lot more about Blair's future following this season.
Gary Neal
http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/153/neal12p.jpg
While the Spurs weren't very good last year following the All-Star break, Gary Neal was definitely a bright spot. In 24 minutes a game, Neal averaged 12 points and shot 47.8% from the field. Overall, Neal proved to be a fantastic find by the front office who appears to have a bright future in the NBA.
That said, I expect Neal's numbers to regress a little bit. I think the loss of George Hill from the reserve unit will allow teams to pay more attention to him. Plus, there just aren't many players who can shoot as well as Neal did as a rookie, so some sort of regression should be expected.
Tiago Splitter
http://img862.imageshack.us/img862/2164/splitter12p.jpg
Tiago Splitter spent his rookie year getting a couple minutes here and a couple minutes there. He was never given a legitimate role in the rotation. Well, until the postseason when Splitter found himself playing important minutes next to Duncan for the first time all season. (Don't even get me started...)
What can we expect from Splitter this year? Well, we can expect him to get more minutes. Outside of that, I'm not too sure. I could see him being one of the most improved players in the league. I could also imagine the coaching staff being unsatisfied with the fit and looking to trade him. The most likely outcome, though, is production at basically the same per-minute rate as last season.
Matt Bonner
http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/4453/bonner12p.jpg
The good news: Matt Bonner led the league in three-point percentage last season. The bad news: Matt Bonner is becoming more and more one-dimensional. Despite his marksmanship, he set a career-low in points per minute. He also had the worst year of his career rebounding-wise.
This year, if he's getting minutes, hopefully he can avoid a further decline. He's already a really bad rebounder -- if he gets any worse he would basically become unplayable. Offensively, he has to shoot above 40% on three-pointers to have any value. Since Pop will play Bonner either way, I'm hoping that Bonner can at least replicate what he did last season.
TJ Ford
http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/2895/ford12p.jpg
TJ Ford has been really bad the last few seasons. In fact, his teams have been much better without the injury prone point guard. At 28, Ford is no longer the superb athlete he used to be and has yet to adjust his game accordingly.
The hope with Ford is that he'll find his comfort zone in San Antonio. Now that he doesn't have the pressure to start, maybe he can concentrate on making his teammates better instead of justifying his bloated contract. I can't say I'm confident that Ford will find the fountain of usefulness but I'm willing to hope.
James Anderson
http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/1712/anderson12p.jpg
The Spurs are hoping that their youth plays a big role this season. James Anderson, perhaps more than any youngster on the squad, is the player widely expected to lead that charge. After getting off to a strong start in his rookie year, he got injured and then was never the same.
This season, I think he'll produce -- especially when it comes to scoring the basketball. However, I'm a bit concerned that his efficiency may suffer growing pains. We'll also have to see whether this condensed schedule will take its tole on a player who is essentially a rookie.
Kawhi Leonard
http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/4655/leonard12p.jpg
Speaking of rookies, Kawhi Leonard is the most hyped rookie the Spurs have had on their team since some guy named Tim Duncan. Pundits are already counting on big things from the 15th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.
Personally, as you can see in the numbers, I don't think scoring will be an area of strength -- to say the least. If he's to have an impact, it will have to be in terms of rebounding and playing defense. That said, rebounding and defense could be enough to earn Leonard a big chunk of minutes.
http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/2406/duncan12p.jpg
At first glance, it appears as if Tim Duncan's production fell off a cliff last year. However, in reality, Duncan's level of statistically production was basically par for his career course -- he just played less minutes. His shooting, rebounding and passing numbers continue to be consistent on a per-minute basis.
Due to spending less time posting up in the paint in an effort to ease the burden on his aging joints, his scoring dropped to a career-low rate. Not only did he shoot less at the rim, he also didn't frequent the free throw line as much as usual.
This season, I expect Duncan's numbers to continue going south -- starting with his minutes per game. I also see his rate of rebounds, blocked shots and steals dipping a bit due to the the lack of available rest in the regular season. However, I think his scoring rate will remain at last season's level.
Manu Ginobili
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/929/ginobili12p.jpg
To begin last season, Manu Ginobili was playing at a near MVP level. He deservedly made the All-Star team for the second time in his career. Unfortunately, his level of play dipped as the season progressed. And then injury was added when he broke his arm during the last game of the season.
All told, Ginobili was still very good last year. He's passing better than he ever has in his career. His scoring is nearly at its peak. Only Ginobili's rebounding gives you a clue that he's 34 years old.
In this condensed schedule, Ginobili's production could depend on his ability to connect on three-pointers. He struggled a bit from deep last year and he can't afford a repeat of that. If Ginobili can hit threes, he can save his legs and he'd also find it easier to drive to the hoop when he decides to penetrate. If his three-point percentage falls further, we could witness a notable drop in production.
Tony Parker
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/9589/parker12p.jpg
In the regular season, Tony Parker bounced back from a forgettable 2009-10 campaign. He scored better, he shot better and his assists numbers were the best of his career -- all while using fewer possessions than the previous five seasons.
Unfortunately, Parker's strong regular season became moot after a horrendous showing the playoffs. Going into the series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Parker was San Antonio's No. 1 advantage. But, as we all remember, Parker ended up getting outplayed by Mike Conley. That, perhaps more than anything else, doomed the Spurs.
After a strong summer playing for (and in) France, I'm hoping that Parker is primed for big things. At 29, he's the member of the Big Three most able to survive the exhaustion of a 66-game, 126-day schedule. I expect his passing numbers to improve even further while retaining his scoring frequency.
Richard Jefferson
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/5100/jefferson12p.jpg
Richard Jefferson had a strong start to last season. After the first couple months, Jefferson's improvements made it look like the Spurs may have invested wisely in the small forward. However, Jefferson made less and less of an impact as the season progressed. By the playoffs, he had regressed to the point of invisibility.
This season, I expect him to rely more than ever on catch-and-shoot threes. His athleticism is waning (as is, most likely, his confidence) so asking him to do much more would be foolish. If he can hit three-pointers at a high rate and play adequate defense, I'd be happy enough.
DeJuan Blair
http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/9513/blair12p.jpg
Here's how DeJuan Blair's season went last year: named the starter, struggled early, rediscovered his rhythm, moved to the bench, ate a lot of fast food, got fat, ended up a non-factor. It wasn't exactly the type of sophomore season the Spurs hoped out of their bowling ball of a bigman.
This year, it appears as if Blair will begin as the starter once again. While I'm projecting him to improve on his last season's numbers, I'm also a bit worried. I'm worried that his athleticism may be in early decline due to his lack of ACLs. I'm also worried that his production could plummet if (or is it when?) he's moved to the bench due to being upset with his ever-changing role. No matter the case, we'll know a lot more about Blair's future following this season.
Gary Neal
http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/153/neal12p.jpg
While the Spurs weren't very good last year following the All-Star break, Gary Neal was definitely a bright spot. In 24 minutes a game, Neal averaged 12 points and shot 47.8% from the field. Overall, Neal proved to be a fantastic find by the front office who appears to have a bright future in the NBA.
That said, I expect Neal's numbers to regress a little bit. I think the loss of George Hill from the reserve unit will allow teams to pay more attention to him. Plus, there just aren't many players who can shoot as well as Neal did as a rookie, so some sort of regression should be expected.
Tiago Splitter
http://img862.imageshack.us/img862/2164/splitter12p.jpg
Tiago Splitter spent his rookie year getting a couple minutes here and a couple minutes there. He was never given a legitimate role in the rotation. Well, until the postseason when Splitter found himself playing important minutes next to Duncan for the first time all season. (Don't even get me started...)
What can we expect from Splitter this year? Well, we can expect him to get more minutes. Outside of that, I'm not too sure. I could see him being one of the most improved players in the league. I could also imagine the coaching staff being unsatisfied with the fit and looking to trade him. The most likely outcome, though, is production at basically the same per-minute rate as last season.
Matt Bonner
http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/4453/bonner12p.jpg
The good news: Matt Bonner led the league in three-point percentage last season. The bad news: Matt Bonner is becoming more and more one-dimensional. Despite his marksmanship, he set a career-low in points per minute. He also had the worst year of his career rebounding-wise.
This year, if he's getting minutes, hopefully he can avoid a further decline. He's already a really bad rebounder -- if he gets any worse he would basically become unplayable. Offensively, he has to shoot above 40% on three-pointers to have any value. Since Pop will play Bonner either way, I'm hoping that Bonner can at least replicate what he did last season.
TJ Ford
http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/2895/ford12p.jpg
TJ Ford has been really bad the last few seasons. In fact, his teams have been much better without the injury prone point guard. At 28, Ford is no longer the superb athlete he used to be and has yet to adjust his game accordingly.
The hope with Ford is that he'll find his comfort zone in San Antonio. Now that he doesn't have the pressure to start, maybe he can concentrate on making his teammates better instead of justifying his bloated contract. I can't say I'm confident that Ford will find the fountain of usefulness but I'm willing to hope.
James Anderson
http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/1712/anderson12p.jpg
The Spurs are hoping that their youth plays a big role this season. James Anderson, perhaps more than any youngster on the squad, is the player widely expected to lead that charge. After getting off to a strong start in his rookie year, he got injured and then was never the same.
This season, I think he'll produce -- especially when it comes to scoring the basketball. However, I'm a bit concerned that his efficiency may suffer growing pains. We'll also have to see whether this condensed schedule will take its tole on a player who is essentially a rookie.
Kawhi Leonard
http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/4655/leonard12p.jpg
Speaking of rookies, Kawhi Leonard is the most hyped rookie the Spurs have had on their team since some guy named Tim Duncan. Pundits are already counting on big things from the 15th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.
Personally, as you can see in the numbers, I don't think scoring will be an area of strength -- to say the least. If he's to have an impact, it will have to be in terms of rebounding and playing defense. That said, rebounding and defense could be enough to earn Leonard a big chunk of minutes.