Hollingerstradamus

[IronMaxipad]

Hollinger expects a sharp decline in Odom's production

Originally Published: November 28, 2011

Odom had a career season at age 31. That's the good news. The bad news is he is one of seven players whose stats can be expected to sharply regress this season, based on a phenomenon called the Fluke Rule. While these seasons are not all flukes per se, the rule of thumb still holds: Any player past the age of 28 whose player efficiency rating (A) jumps by more than three points in a season and (B) is above 14 will see his PER regress the next season, on average, by roughly the same amount. The odds are better than 90 percent that his PER will go down, and in many cases the decline is steep.

This is particularly true for players like Odom that are on the wrong side of 30 and had never played this well previously. Odom's PER last season was a career high because he shot the lights out both in the basket area (70.2 percent) and on 3-pointers (38.2 percent). However, based on his career norms he seems unlikely to sustain such lofty percentages.

http://espn.go.com/photo/2006/1102/pg2_odom_275.jpg

As a reminder, here's how last year's Fluke Rule class fared (see chart). While it rarely works out this neatly across the entire group, the mean Fluke Rule player will lose three points on his PER the following season. (Nice Fluke Rule players are similarly affected).


Fluke Rule, Class of 2009-10
Player 2008-09 PER 2009-10 PER 2010-11 PER Change
Corey Maggette 16.91 20.40 15.89 -4.51
Jamal Crawford 15.15 18.50 14.29 -4.21
Nazr Mohammed 7.71 19.64 15.98 -3.66
Ben Wallace 12.18 15.84 12.29 -3.55
Sam Dalembert 13.22 16.84 14.10 -2.74
Luke Ridnour 12.95 17.81 15.08 -2.73
Carlos Boozer 17.28 21.42 18.90 -2.52


This year, the other seven players joining Odom in Flukeville are Brad Miller, Tony Allen, Chris Andersen, Earl Boykins, Tyson Chandler, Tony Parker and Chris Wilcox. Miller may not play this year after having microfracture over the summer, but of the other seven we can expect six to decline. Parker and Chandler, who were 28 years old on Dec. 31 of last season, are slightly less susceptible than their older cohorts, but all will be hard-pressed to maintain last season's production

Fluke Rule, Class of 2010-11
Player Team 2009-10 PER 2010-11 PER Change
Chris Wilcox Det 12.04 18.09 +6.05
Tyson Chandler Dal 12.58 18.45 +5.87
Earl Boykins Mil 12.98 17.62 +4.64
Tony Allen Mem 14.23 18.40 +4.17
Tony Parker SA 16.49 20.44 +3.95
Lamar Odom LAL 15.98 19.50 +3.52
Brad Miller Hou 12.96 16.37 +3.41
Chris Andersen Den 15.88 19.03 +3.15


While the eight players in this season's crop run the gamut from "no freaking way he does that again" (Wilcox) to "potential glaring exception" (Parker), Odom represents a fairly typical Fluke Rule player and it's clear how his numbers could fall back to earth. Last season he blew away his career highs in field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage and TS%. If those revert back to his usual levels -- which is nearly always what happens -- his PER will come along for the ride. The result would still leave Odom as one of the most effective sixth men in the game because of his defense, rebounding, ballhandling and not insignificant scoring. But it's unrealistic to expect him to shoot 70 percent at the rim and drill 38 percent of his 3s.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story?page=2011-12-lal-preview&_slug_=losangeles-lakers-player-profiles&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fstory%3fpage%3d2011-12-lal-preview%26_slug_%3dlosangeles-lakers-player-profiles#reserves

:lmao

[lefty]

No shit

[mavs>spurs]

Yeah, older players sometimes regress who woulda thought. But he is in no way accurately predicting anything, this is totally hit and miss. For example, his rule should have applied to JET for the past several years according to his criteria but it didnt. Jet just kept performing and got even better in his old age, as do some other players. Whole thing is flawed.

[LkrFan]

Lakers' FO must have insider. :lol

[Mav-elous Man]

Yeah, older players sometimes regress who woulda thought. But he is in no way accurately predicting anything, this is totally hit and miss. For example, his rule should have applied to JET for the past several years according to his criteria but it didnt. Jet just kept performing and got even better in his old age, as do some other players. Whole thing is flawed.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[monosylab1k]

Yeah he also predicted Blazers in 4, Lakers in 6, Thunder in 6, and Heat in 5 if I remember correctly. He's good!

[Giuseppe]

Yeah he also predicted Blazers in 4, Lakers in 6, Thunder in 6, and Heat in 5 if I remember correctly. He's good!

What's it to you...By then you'd already quit.

[monosylab1k]

What's it to you...By then you'd already quit.

and in a few short months you'd suffer The Mistake and The Non-Endorsement.

[Giuseppe]

and in a few short months you'd suffer The Mistake and The Non-Endorsement.

You stormed off though, cussing Chandler, et al the entire way.

It was wonderful that my Luva spent some time in the stacks finding that beauty.
:lmao

[monosylab1k]

You stormed off though, cussing Chandler, et al the entire way.

Exactly. But never once did I quit. And little did you know a few months later the shit sandwiches known as The Mistake and The Non-Endorsement would be shoved into your piehole.

[Giuseppe]

Exactly. But never once did I quit. And little did you know a few months later the shit sandwiches known as The Mistake and The Non-Endorsement would be shoved into your piehole.

A course you quit. In broad daylight, daddy. At the top of your lungs, in big bold black letters.

:lmao

[monosylab1k]

A course you quit.

Never once did the word "quit" show up in that post.

[Giuseppe]

"I'm done." equates to I quit.

You quit.

[monosylab1k]

"I'm done." equates to I quit.

You quit.

"I'm done" can mean a lot of things. I'm done having high hopes. I'm done trusting the Mavs front office. I'm done with defending the decisions of the team. It never meant that I quit on them.

"I'm done" is open to interpretation, something you've no room trying to interpret since you failed so miserably trying to interpret Kori's message, resulting in The Mistake and the subsequent The Non-Endorsement.

[Giuseppe]

"I'm done" can mean a lot of things. I'm done having high hopes. I'm done trusting the Mavs front office. I'm done with defending the decisions of the team. It never meant that I quit on them.

"I'm done" is open to interpretation, something you've no room trying to interpret since you failed so miserably trying to interpret Kori's message, resulting in The Mistake and the subsequent The Non-Endorsement.

Perhaps, but, in this case "I'm done" means you quit.

And daddy, you're livin' with this.

This, I vow.

[monosylab1k]

Perhaps, but, in this case "I'm done" means you quit.

You've no room to make that call. Petition Mrs. Ellis herself to make that judgement, or shut yer yapper, the same yapper that committed The Mistake which led to the humiliation of The Non-Endorsement.

[Giuseppe]

You've no room to make that call. Petition Mrs. Ellis herself to make that judgement, or shut yer yapper, the same yapper that committed The Mistake which led to the humiliation of The Non-Endorsement.

Not qualified. She jumped the shark last evening.

You quit. And you're livin' with it.

And that's just the way it's gonna be.

[monosylab1k]

Not qualified.

After The Mistake, neither are you. Petition Mr. Ellis then. But you ain't makin this call, daddy-o. Nuh uh. Not after you got The Non-Endorsement shoved into your piehole.

[Giuseppe]

After The Mistake, neither are you. Petition Mr. Ellis then. But you ain't makin this call, daddy-o. Nuh uh. Not after you got The Non-Endorsement shoved into your piehole.

Yes, I am. And you quit, dad.

Let us proceed...

P.S., he jumped the same shark.

[monosylab1k]

Yes, I am.

Nope. You ain't qualified either. Not after The Mistake.

[Giuseppe]

Nope. You ain't qualified either. Not after The Mistake.

Yep. I am.

You quit.

[monosylab1k]

Yep.

Nope. You aren't.
Let this be the official parameters for this new battle. If you utter the words "you quit" once more in this thread, then you have officially surrendered the battle to me. If I utter the words "You're a Mormon" then I surrender to you. Post again in this thread to confirm that you accept these parameters.

[Giuseppe]

Nope. You aren't.
Let this be the official parameters for this new battle. If you utter the words "you quit" once more in this thread, then you have officially surrendered the battle to me. If I utter the words "You're a Mormon" then I surrender to you. Post again in this thread to confirm that you accept these parameters.

You quitPERIOD

[monosylab1k]

You quitPERIOD

Thanks!

[Giuseppe]

Thanks!

That won't save ya.

Let us proceed...

[monosylab1k]

That won't save ya.

Let us proceed...

Until you find someone qualified, you've no room. That's it, and that's all.

[Giuseppe]

Until you find someone qualified, you've no room. That's it, and that's all.

Nope.

You quitPERIOD

[monosylab1k]

Nope.

You quitPERIOD

nope.

[Giuseppe]

nope.

Yep.

You quit, daddy-O.

[monosylab1k]

Yep.

You quit, daddy-O.

And there it is. I accept your surrender in this thread, Giuseppe, as clearly defined in the parameters stated in post #22 of this thread.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Well, Cully agreed to the parameters then violated them. He clearly lost.

[Giuseppe]

And there it is. I accept your surrender in this thread, Giuseppe, as clearly defined in the parameters stated in post #22 of this thread.

You can chase your elbow round your asshole till the cows come home.

You quit, A.

You're livin' it, B.

Let us proceed...C.

[Giuseppe]

Well, Cully agreed to the parameters then violated them. He clearly lost.

You tried to quit too.

But, I gave you a permanent by your leave.

tee, hee.

[monosylab1k]

Well, Cully agreed to the parameters then violated them. He clearly lost.

The Surrender

[Giuseppe]

The Surrender

You quit.

[monosylab1k]

You can chase your elbow round your asshole till the cows come home.

You quit, A.

You're livin' it, B.

Let us proceed...C.

You surrendered. It's there in post #22 of this thread, in plain white letters. You surrendered, I win, and that's that.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

The Prediction
The Catastrophe
The Surrender

Cully is looking to end 2011 in historically embarrassing fashion

[Giuseppe]

The Prediction
The Catastrophe
The Surrender

Cully is looking to end 2011 in historically embarrassing fashion

Yep, you tried to quit. But, I ain't lettin' ya, sweetcheeks.

You started with the Suns.

You'll end with 'em.

Let us proceed...

[Giuseppe]

You surrendered. It's there in post #22 of this thread, in plain white letters. You surrendered, I win, and that's that.

Nope.

You quitPERIOD

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Yep, you tried to quit. But, I ain't lettin' ya, sweetcheeks.

You started with the Suns.

You'll end with 'em.

Let us proceed...
You started with the Cavs and you quit on them.


Two can play at that game.

[Giuseppe]

You started with the Cavs and you quit on them.


Two can play at that game.

That ain't what you told 'em here when I first landed. You lauded me then, sweetheart.

ha, ha.

[monosylab1k]

Nope.

You quitPERIOD

You surrendered. It's over. You willfully agreed to the parameters and then gave me your official surrender in this thread. I accepted. It's over.

The Surrender

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

I didn't know you lived in Cleveland when you first started posting here :lol

:lol someone from Cleveland claiming to be a Lakers fan

[Giuseppe]

You surrendered. It's over. You willfully agreed to the parameters and then gave me your official surrender in this thread. I accepted. It's over.

The Surrender

Uh, uh, sassafras,,,

You quitPERIOD

[redzero]

If lying about qualifying is open to opinion, then so is "I'm done."

[Giuseppe]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/images/Style_Templates/nba/statusicon/post_new.gif Today, 12:02 PM #45 (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5541821&postcount=45) redzero (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=16145)
Get some!

Red, returning to his mother's vomit.

[monosylab1k]

Uh, uh, sassafras,,,

You quitPERIOD

You can post till you're blue in the face in this thread, but I'm gonna go take my victory lap after I induced The Surrender.

ESYkXammpZ8

[Giuseppe]

You can post till you're blue in the face in this thread, but I'm gonna go take my victory lap after I induced The Surrender.

You can do whatever you want.

You quitPERIOD

[redzero]

If lying about qualifying is open to opinion, then so is "I'm done."

^

[Giuseppe]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/images/Style_Templates/nba/statusicon/post_new.gif Today, 12:20 PM #49 (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5541847&postcount=49) redzero (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=16145)
Get some!
C'mon, Red, come get some. Bring your mother.

[redzero]

Point still stands.

:lol retard logic

[Giuseppe]

^Still & all, Red.

Welcome back, dad.

[redzero]

:lol flip-flopper
:lol retard logic

[Giuseppe]

:lol flip-flopper
:lol retard logic

Just so nice to have you back speakin' to me again, sweetheart.

tee, hee.

Don't fret, nobody keeps me on ignore forever.

[redzero]

I never put anybody on my ignore list.

:lol lying about qualifying