Demos Registering to Vote At Twice The Rate Of Republicans

[Nbadan]

The Republican pool of voters is tapped out, If the Demos can get a 55% or over turnout, this election is a lock for Kerry.



<snip>

SALEM, Ore. - Democrats are leading Republicans by almost two-to-one in their efforts to register new voters for the November election.

That, according to voter data released yesterday.

The Registration figures released from the Oregon Elections Division show that over 74-thousand people have been to the voter rolls in the last six months.

And of those new voters, over 33-thousand are Democrats. Only around 17-thousand have signed on as Republicans. The rest have registered as independents. Or else minor-party members.

<snip>


KATU (http://www.katu.com/news/story.asp?ID=71159)

Talk about it!

[Tommy Duncan]

1. That's Oregon.

2. The Oregon (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1923.topi c) thread would be a good location for that article.

[Joe Chalupa]

I hope they are not only registering..but voting!

[Nbadan]

As I said before, the Repubican voter pool is almost dry. I think national figures would bore out the same conclusion. Either way, most polls only figure in "people who voted 2000" or "likely voters". New voters could make a real difference in 2004.

To win in 04, I think W will have to attract a few Reagan democrats, and right now, I don't see him even having a strangle-hold on some conservatives.

[SpursWoman]

the Repubican voter pool is almost dry


Oh, really? I'm curious on how you come to that conclusion. Because of Oregon? A state that already votes primarily Democrat?

[Joe Chalupa]

I think that Kerry still has some major work to do if he plans on ousting Bush. The incumbent always has the advantage unless he/she screws up, which I think Dubya has, but too many are willing to live with those screw ups.

[Tommy Duncan]

Keep wishing danny.

It's the Demos who have the weaker coalition.

[Nbadan]

Oh, really? I'm curious on how you come to that conclusion. Because of Oregon? A state that already votes primarily Democrat?

I'm basing my belief on historical national figures that show that Republicans have traditionally voted at much higher rates than those who consider themselves progressives. I think the rate was around 70% to less than 50%. I think it is unrealistic to believe that republicans can get a much higher turnout than 75%, therefore, if there is a record turnout in 04 as I am predicting, most of those new voters would be democrat and to win W. would have to attract a sizeable number of them.

[Spurminator]

Clearly the two registered Republicans in Oregon need to make more of an effort to attract some Independents.

[Tommy Duncan]

You are overestimating the number of partisan Democrat voters out there. In a number of surveys I have seen the GOP has reached rough parity with the Democrats when it comes to party identification.

It seems like you are basing a lot of this off the 2000 election. In 2000 Gore was identified with the incumbent administration and the reality of the economic downturn had yet to set in. And of course that was before 9/11.

Another point which is overlooked is that 4 million evangelicals did not vote in the 2000 election.

The American electorate is still somewhat conservative when it comes to presidential elections, both in terms of ideology but also in terms of changing administrations.

Given how uninspiring Kerry has been, how unified the GOP is behind Bush, and how undecideds, youth, and women are moving to Bush in the polls I've seen your progressive tidal wave theory is more fairly tale than anything else.

But whatever eases the pain, I suppose.

[LandSharkII]

But whatever eases the pain, I suppose.

Danny is the King of Denial.

[Nbadan]

how undecideds, youth, and women are moving to Bush in the polls I've seen

Women and youth? Your in self-denial if you think that W. has a chance of attracting more of this constituency than the demo's will attract.

All I'm saying is that most polls maybe under-estimating the eventual Kerry vote by enough first-time voters to make this a run away for Kerry, even if this isn't what most conventional polls seem to be saying right now because most polls exclude this large segment of voters. They could also be under-estimating the eventual number for W, but I think that the numbers will show that the demo's will benefit most from a large turnout in November.

[DeSPURado]

Overseas ballotsd may actually contribute this time too. reports from everywhere say that demand has skyrocketed for absentee ballots from that uncounted constituency.

[Tommy Duncan]

Yes danny look at the internals of most of these polls which have come out recently.

Another thing to consider is that the average Gore voter was probably less ideologically motivated than the average Bush voter back in 2000.

[Whottt]

You put too much emphasis on party affiliation Dan...I happen to believe that most voters are like myself and vote based on the candidate...not party affiliation...especially when it comes to The President! I think that most voters vote this way is easily borne out by the fact that neither party has truly dominated the Oval Office.

Judging based on party affiliation can be misleading...Check my records and you will see I have voted for a democrat for president in the past 3 elections and nearly always lean towards the democratic ticket across the ballot...

............... but I won't be voting for Kerry this time around...

This guy sucks and I can't believe the democratic party is touting this colossal commie lump of shit as their candidate.

No fucking thanks! There's a difference between being a liberal and being a gaping ass queer who bends over and spreads wide for France in a pathetic suckass faggot attempt to be loved by anyone born outside the USA.

I don't even think Kerry should be allowed to live in the USA much less run for Oval Office...I'd sooner vote for Arnie...I'd rather be unemployed and hated by the rest of the world than have an asskissing submissive running the country and that's exactly what Kerry is...The Dems swung to far to the left...if I have to go to extremes it's better to go to the extreme on the right...At least Bush knows how to say **** You to other countries...to swing to the extreme the left is just plain stupid in the current world environment...it's just plain naive...because all those other countries leading the shit parade are jealous, they all have their own agendas...and none of them are more altrusitic towards other nations on their best day than the USA is on it's worst...regardless of who is running the country...the 60's are over...people realized that drugs **** you up in the head...let's not put a sniveling 60's posterboy in the whitehouse...his time is passed and his ideas are anachronistic given the current state of the world.

[Yonivore]

I think the subject line of this thread just indicates that Demoncrats are registering in two states...like they did in 2000.