Pregame Thoughts: Spurs vs. Mavericks - Jan. 5

[timvp]

Tonight's game against the reigning NBA champion Dallas Mavericks (still odd to type) has a number of interesting subplots. Here's some things I'll be watching out for.

Tim Duncan's mobility
The first time Duncan played in the second night of a back-to-back this season, he had one of the worst games of his career in the blowout loss in Houston. If Duncan again looks rigid tonight, that would be a really bad sign for the rest of the season.

However, it should be noted that this isn't your typical NBA back-to-back. About 95% of the time, there is a plane trip between the two games. This type of back-to-back with both games being at home just doesn't happen during a normal season.

Will the lack of travel help Duncan? Let's hope so.

Defending Dirk Nowitzki
When Antonio McDyess was on the roster, the Spurs had someone they could throw at Nowitzki. With McDyess enjoying retirement, who will attempt to guard Nowitzki? Honestly, I have no idea.

DeJuan Blair will probably start off on him but that will be a disaster. Duncan won't get the call. Putting Matt Bonner on him is even worse than leaving Nowitzki open because Bonner will turn two-pointers into three-pointers and three-pointers into four-pointers.

Tiago Splitter probably isn't mobile enough but it could be worth a try. Richard Jefferson could be a decent option, although he'd likely get bullied by Nowitzki.

The player I actually want to see get the call to defend Nowitzki is Kawhi Leonard. First of all, it'd be great experience for Leonard. Plus, the rook is quick, long and a good rebounder -- which on paper makes him a good choice against the big German.

That said, I fully expect Nowitzki to toast Leonard, too. The best hope ultimately will be that the one-time NBA champion is having a bad shooting night.

TJ Ford's Progress
Last night, Ford had by far his best game of the season. Was it a result of getting comfortable with the system and thus an outcome we can expect more often? Another question: The Mavs, like the Warriors, are loaded with small guards. Will that lead to Pop paying Ford and Tony Parker at the same time again tonight?

Danny Green's Encore
Green has been really good lately, especially in his last outing against the Warriors. Now let's see what he can do while shouldering some expectations. There are a number of minutes up for grabs right now in the rotation and a good performance tonight could cement Green's spot.

Altered Rotation
Speaking of the rotation, it will be interesting to see how much Pop changes it based off of the Warriors game. You'd think he has to give Green a look early. If he does, will it at be at Leonard's expense? Could Pop actually start Green, allow Leonard to keep his role and make Anderson the odd man out? Will he play small ball and allow them all to play? Stay tuned.

Ian Mahinmi versus Tiago Splitter
Every Spurs fan will be watching when these two backup centers go at it. While both have been effective players this season, they do their work in completely different fashions. Splitter can be soft at times, while that's not an adjective ever used to describe Mahinmi's play. But then Mahinmi's basketball IQ and feel for the game are still highly suspect. Shall be interesting. For bandwidth's sake, let's hope Splitter at least holds his own.

[timvp]

Oh and yeah a win could do wonders for the team's confidence. The Mavs should be heavily favored but the Spurs being at home should give 'em a fighting chance.

[DPG21920]

I think it's pretty clear Tiago should get his shot. At this point, he's been the team's best defender and has done well on a slew of different bigs (craftier guys like Scola and amazing athletes like Blake Griffin). He seems to be the clear cut option even though on paper people like to write about his shortcomings.

[Spurminator]

Hell, throw Green on Dirk if you need to. He might have a Stephen Jackson/Bruce Bowen effect on him.

[timvp]

Hell, throw Green on Dirk if you need to. He might have a Stephen Jackson/Bruce Bowen effect on him.

I thought about that. He's probably too short but I wouldn't blame Pop for at least giving it a try.

[jjktkk]

In spot minutes, I can see Leonard getting a shot at Dirk tonight. Imo, one of the reasons they drafted Leonard, was his ability to guard mutiple positions.

[DMC]

No one in the NBA can really guard Dirk. Just don't give him 50 ft attempts, keep him off the boards and keep him honest out to 18' if possible.

[baseline bum]

Bonner; this team needs as low a seed as possible to nab someone decent in the draft.

[gameFACE]

TJ Ford and Danny Green are playing like they're trying to prove something and that's great for tonight. Splitter, Anderson and Tony should have better games. If Bonner can play (gasp) defense like he did last night that could bode well for the team.

They're not going to let the Mavs get this one at home, w/ or w/o Manu.

[wildbill2u]

Mavs frontline of Odom, Haywood and Nowitski > Duncan, Blair, Jefferson.

Pop will have to come up with a better lineup to win this battle.

Even Duncan, Splitter Jefferson may not make up for the extra length of the Mav's bigs--and it doesn't get any shorter if the Mavs go to their bench--but we do.

[LakerHater]

Throw Diogu on Dirk, fuck it!

[Lukor]

Interesting thoughts.
One note though: With the departure of Barea Dallas is no longer loaded with small guards. West(starting at the 2) is 6'4 and so is Kidd,thats hardly undersized.

The Barea/Terry backcourt is a thing of the past and since Roddy only plays 5-10mpg you'll see more of the Terry/Carter backcourt than anything else not named Kidd/Terry. The Mavs 2nd unit actually likes to go big with Terry(at pg)/Vince/Odom(at the 3)/Dirk/Mahinmi. It will be interesting to see how the Spurs match up with that, but as i said, mavs being small in the backcourt is a thing of the past.

[timvp]

Interesting thoughts.
One note though: With the departure of Barea Dallas is no longer loaded with small guards. The Barea/Terry backcourt is a thing of the past and since Roddy only plays 5-10mpg you'll see more of the Terry/Carter backcourt than anything else not named Kidd/Terry. The Mavs 2nd unit actually likes to go big with Terry(at pg)/Vince/Odom(at the 3)/Dirk/Mahinmi. It will be interesting to see how the Spurs match up with that, but as i said, mavs being small in the backcourt is a thing of the past.

Kidd and Terry is a small backcourt and, like you said, that's the Mavs main guard duo. And when either is paired with West, that's still small.

I do agree that the Mavs backcourt is bigger now without Barea but it's still one of the small in the league.

[xtremesteven33]

The Spurs/Mavericks rivalry has already reached legendary status. This could be another classic encounter even without Manu. I expect man on man defense on Dirk for the first half then I expect Pop to throw double teams at him in the second half.

Spurs usually can keep Terry under control for the most part. It will be very interesting to see how they defend Odom.

[angelbelow]

I had a really good feeling going into last nights game. Even when we struggled heavily in the first half defending Ellis and Curry.

But I have a really bad feeling about tonight's game. Maybe because the Warriors are that bad, and the Mavericks are the Mavericks. They're desperate for a win after a poor start so they'll be coming out for blood. Also the back to back really sucks.

[objective]

The Mavs have been using Mahinmi in the safest way possible and he's been producing. He gets zero post-ups. The only time he ever gets that ball when he's not handing the ball off is cutting to the basket or the rare dish for the open jumper.

This pretty much removes him from getting dumb offensive fouls while posting up and cuts out his opportunities for turning the ball over.

Everything else, he's doing pretty much what he did here on the rare occasion he was allowed to play: effective defense, screens for the offense, athletic plays to contest shots and keep possessions alive on the offensive boards, and draw fouls while attacking the rim. He has been a solid, if not outright good, back-up rotation big man.

He could have done that here, but that probably would not have been fair to the team.

[Lukor]

Kidd and Terry is a small backcourt and, like you said, that's the Mavs main guard duo. And when either is paired with West, that's still small.

I do agree that the Mavs backcourt is bigger now without Barea but it's still one of the small in the league.

Fair point,so maybe we can agree on this: The mavs used to have a midget backcourt, now they have a small backcourt (except when they go big with their 2nd unit of Terry/Vince).
Btw i'm excited to see what Leonard can do tonight, havent watched a Spurs game this season yet. And Splitter seems to be improved.

[Russ]

The player I actually want to see get the call to defend Nowitzki is Kawhi Leonard. First of all, it'd be great experience for Leonard. Plus, the rook is quick, long and a good rebounder -- which on paper makes him a good choice against the big German.

That said, I fully expect Nowitzki to toast Leonard, too. The best hope ultimately will be that the one-time NBA champion is having a bad shooting night.

Leonard looks like the right choice. He's much more likely to be the next Bowen than anyone else on the roster (I like Green but he's not the least like Bowen physically nor in his game.)

I'm not so sure Dirk will light Leonard up though. Leonard has the goods on D.

Tim Duncan's mobility
Ian Mahinmi versus Tiago Splitter
Every Spurs fan will be watching when these two backup centers go at it. While both have been effective players this season, they do their work in completely different fashions. Splitter can be soft at times, while that's not an adjective ever used to describe Mahinmi's play. But then Mahinmi's basketball IQ and feel for the game are still highly suspect. Shall be interesting. For bandwidth's sake, let's hope Splitter at least holds his own.

Interesting matchup between two foreign big men that Pop ran through his wringer. For whatever reason, Pop seems to shred foreign bigs (confidence and all) like Kardashian shreds the domestic models. Ian ultimately got run and Tiago is only getting a chance now in his second season. (Rasho ultimately got dealt; even Oberto got cast away.)

Gotta believe Ian will be motivated to wreak revenge. But Tiago is so much better, it may not matter.

Leonard and Tiago are two of the keys to this season. But the Spurs have a stable of young players like nothing in years.

[timvp]

Fair point,so maybe we can agree on this: The mavs used to have a midget backcourt, now they have a small backcourt

:toast


He has been a solid, if not outright good, back-up rotation big man.


It's still mind boggling how much time and resources the Spurs wasted on Mahinmi without ever giving him a legit chance to sink or swim. I will never understand what happened.

Per 36 minutes, here's how Mahinmi and Splitter compare statistically:

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/9392/mahitter.jpg

Splitter's blocks and assists stand out, although so do his turnovers and low field goal percentage. All things being equal, I'd take Splitter over Mahinmi ... although Mahinmi has closed that gap over the last week or so.

[DMC]

So with the stats favoring Mahinmi, why would you choose Splitter, and does your answer to that make the Spurs' decision less mind boggling?

Did Mahinmi get most of his production in trash minutes against end of the bench players?

[Redshadows]

Their frontcourt are bigger than ours and their backcourt are smaller than ours.

[ace3g]

Monroe_SA Mike Monroe
Gary Neal starting at shooting guard for Spurs tonight, not james Anderson

[Amuseddaysleeper]

This is the second night of a 4 games in 5 night stretch. With Denver and okc coking up I wouldn't be surprised to.see Pop wave the white flag if the Spurs are down 9 or more heading into the fourth.

[#41 Shoot Em Up]

I had a really good feeling going into last nights game. Even when we struggled heavily in the first half defending Ellis and Curry.

But I have a really bad feeling about tonight's game. Maybe because the Warriors are that bad, and the Mavericks are the Mavericks. They're desperate for a win after a poor start so they'll be coming out for blood. Also the back to back really sucks.

:lol Way to get the excuses ready.... Mavs "desperate for a win" "back to backs" :lol

[#41 Shoot Em Up]

Hopefully Dallas can continue the momentum...they've looked MUCH improved the last 2 games.

Amen nikka

[timvp]

So with the stats favoring Mahinmi, why would you choose Splitter
Mahinmi is still pretty damn robotic. His ceiling is probably as a good backup center.

Splitter has issues to iron out but he has a lot more actual skill. If he can play a little bit tougher and learn how to get his shots off on a consistent basis, there's no reason why he can't be a long-term starter in the NBA. It's unlikely he's ever more than an average starting center -- but even average starting centers are valuable and make a ton of money.


and does your answer to that make the Spurs' decision less mind boggling?
No because the Spurs could have used both.


Did Mahinmi get most of his production in trash minutes against end of the bench players?
Not this year. He's been a part of the regular rotation.

[timvp]

Monroe_SA Mike Monroe
Gary Neal starting at shooting guard for Spurs tonight, not james Anderson

Very interesting. This points to Anderson being the odd man out of the rotation. Leonard probably remains the backup three, although I guess we'll see.

It's too bad that Anderson has been such a failure this season. The potential is there but he has definitely regressed since the beginning of last year.

I agree with this move by Pop. The Spurs can't survive Ginobili's minutes while giving Anderson charity minutes against good teams.

[Brazil]

^ We have to Neal with it ... and that's ok

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Too soon to start Gary Neal? I'm not crazy about Anderson's play, but he should be given more of a chance.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Very interesting. This points to Anderson being the odd man out of the rotation. Leonard probably remains the backup three, although I guess we'll see.

It's too bad that Anderson has been such a failure this season. The potential is there but he has definitely regressed since the beginning of last year.

I agree with this move by Pop. The Spurs can't survive Ginobili's minutes while giving Anderson charity minutes against good teams.

Makes sense.

[DMC]

Splitter acts like he thinks he's about 6'6. He will be right at the rim with one smaller defender he could own, but he does all the moves, head fakes and often defers to someone else instead of attacking the rim.

He needs to work with a big other than Tim. Tim's game has always been a bit of finesse, and Tim has that strength and doesn't have to attack (but can), but Tiago needs to work with someone who's had to count on power. Tiago needs to develop some attitude.

[Russ]

It's too bad that Anderson has been such a failure this season. The potential is there but he has definitely regressed since the beginning of last year.

Looking at the bright side, it's not like they passed on a bunch of great players when they drafted him at 20 (maybe Landry Fields would have been better).

It was a terrible draft top to bottom.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

What channel is the game supposed to be on? I can't find it.

[foodie2]

Kens 5

[Russ]

What channel is the game supposed to be on? I can't find it.

I'm only getting the Mavs' broadcast.

[analyzed]

Part of the reason Neal is starting is the Mavs small starting back-up, but you also have to believe Green coming of the bench is partly the reason. Anderson's PT really looks glim


http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2012/01/05/neal-tabbed-for-starting-lineup/

[Cane]

This game is all about Tony Parker for me. He's gotta be able to maximize his match-up advantage versus the Mavs tonight. He doesn't have to score but he's gotta break down their perimeter defense. It'll be Parker versus Dirk's impact imo

[timvp]

Tim Duncan's mobility
Will the lack of travel help Duncan? Let's hope so.

It looks like it did. Duncan didn't look great but he looked a lot better than he did against the Rockets.


Defending Dirk Nowitzki
With McDyess enjoying retirement, who will attempt to guard Nowitzki?
It was mostly Blair and Splitter. Blair had a strip of Nowitzki and a few other deflections. Splitter moved his feet pretty well to stay with him. However, that was about as bad as Nowitzki will ever play so there wasn't much to take away.


TJ Ford's Progress
Last night, Ford had by far his best game of the season. Was it a result of getting comfortable with the system and thus an outcome we can expect more often?
Ford looked pretty good again. He's playing like a totally difference player this year than any point in his career. And really, that's a good thing.

He's shooting about half as much as he used to in his prime. He's even shooting about 1/3rd less than he did last year. Ford also isn't forcing things at the rim anymore, which is evident by the fact that he's barely getting to the line. His rebounding is also down compared to his career rates but I think that has to do with him focusing more on getting back on defense and closing out on his man.

If Ford can turn into a quality distributor who takes only smart shots and hustles on defense, I'll be very satisfied by his play. As it is, it's a great sign that Ford realizes he no longer needs to be a star and can help the team most by playing a role.


Danny Green's Encore

He didn't play like a superstar or anything but Green continues to look like he can be a valuable part of the rotation. And while Spurs fans are hyping him up a bit, his stats so far this season show he's been playing at a high level. He has a PER of 20.83, which is eighth best among shooting guards in the league (BTW, Ginobili is first at a ridiculous 35.15).


Altered Rotation
Speaking of the rotation, it will be interesting to see how much Pop changes it based off of the Warriors game. You'd think he has to give Green a look early. If he does, will it at be at Leonard's expense? Could Pop actually start Green, allow Leonard to keep his role and make Anderson the odd man out? Will he play small ball and allow them all to play? Stay tuned.
Pop, of course, does something else. He starts Neal, put Green in the rotation, kept Leonard in the rotation and exiled Anderson. It worked really well last night, so kudos to Pop for that decision.


Ian Mahinmi versus Tiago Splitter

Splitter had 3 points and 3 rebounds in 19 minutes. Mahinmi had seven points, nine rebounds and a block in 20 minutes ... but he also had four turnovers.

I'd say Mahinmi won this battle pretty handily despite the turnovers. He played physically and was one of the few Mavs who looked engage. When Splitter posted up on Mahinmi, he had no hope of moving Splitter. When Mahinmi posted up on Splitter, he scored pretty easily.

I would still take Splitter longterm but these last couple games have been pretty deflating.

[The_Worlds_finest]

Mavs frontline of Odom, Haywood and Nowitski > Duncan, Blair, Jefferson.

Pop will have to come up with a better lineup to win this battle.

Even Duncan, Splitter Jefferson may not make up for the extra length of the Mav's bigs--and it doesn't get any shorter if the Mavs go to their bench--but we do.

:lol pop continues to shit all over the haters on here. Bigs can't guard a team that drills threes like the spurs.