tlongII
01-05-2012, 06:42 PM
http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/01/04/are-the-trail-blazers-now-contenders/#?sct=nba_bf2_a6
http://sinbapointforward.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/aldridge.jpg
About 28 of Portland's 83 shots per game (33.7 percent) have come at the rim so far this season.
We’re not even 10 percent through the regular season, so the importance of any statistical trend falls somewhere between “totally meaningless” and “possibly indicative of larger things to come.” With that in mind, four teams rank among the top 10 in both points scored and allowed per possession: the Heat, Bulls, 76ers and Trail Blazers.
The first two might be the two very best teams in the league. Philadelphia has played a league-low four games, and though all have been on the road, three have come against probable or certain lottery teams. And then there’s Portland, a sad sack franchise that draws sympathy but little respect as a legitimate contender. A few of us labeled the Blazers as potential sleepers in the Western Conference, but even the optimists didn’t quite expect Nate McMillan’s slow-poke team to turn into a fast-paced, rim-attacking, foul-drawing monster that destroyed every opponent three-point attack. And when the Blazers came out running at a breakneck pace that meshes well with Raymond Felton and Gerald Wallace, smart folks like SB Nation’s Mike Prada wondered how they’d fare against a good team that slowed things down a bit.
The Blazers answered emphatically in a smart, efficient, fantastic win Tuesday at Oklahoma City, a team admittedly playing on the second end of a tough Dallas-Portland back-to-back. It was easily Portland’s slowest game of the season, featuring just 91 possessions, below the league’s average, let alone the average for a Portland team that ranks fourth in possessions per game even after last night. And the Blazers — not the Thunder — looked like the disciplined team ready to play grind-it-out ball. They got to the line 36 times, becoming a normal thing for a team that ranks fifth in free-throw rate after finishing in the middle of the league last season. They rebounded a decent share of their own misses, reminding us that what had been a top-five offensive rebounding team for two straight seasons remains solidly in the top 10 in offensive rebounding rate so far in this one.
The Blazers took a lot of shots (26) at the rim, something they have done much more of this season. About 28 of Portland’s 83 shots per game – 33.7 percent — have come at the rim; such close shots accounted for just 30.5 percent of its overall attempts last season, and considering how often this team is getting to the line now, those stats undersell the degree to which it is going to the basket. LaMarcus Aldridge is shooting more jumpers, but he hasn’t reduced his close shots or free throws in the process. Gerald Wallace is barely shooting long two-pointers at all so far, preferring to either fly to the rim or shoot threes. And while he’s not even an average three-point shooter, if he’s going to shoot long jumpers, you’d at least prefer they count for an extra point in the event they go in. (You might also prefer that a few more come from the corners, but we’re dealing with a tiny sample size.)
Basically, the Blazers have changed their identity without sacrificing much of what their refined, slow-paced predecessors did. They have been more careless with the ball than McMillan’s typically turnover-phobic teams, but even in turnover rate, which factors in pace, the Blazers have been average. And average there is acceptable, considering Portland is still forcing turnovers at a slightly better-than-average rate. A team that used to win the turnover battle handily can live with drawing even if their fast-paced style creates benefits elsewhere.
And the Blazers just looked like the more polished team in the half-court Tuesday in Oklahoma City — like a team that knows exactly what it wants to do every time down. When Wesley Matthews found himself matched up with the shorter, lighter Daequan Cook, he transformed from a spot-up shooter/off-ball cutter into a one-on-one attacker from the perimeter and the post — and to great success. When Wallace, playing either forward position, drew Kevin Durant as his defender, he went to the block, where the Blazers fed him repeatedly and watched him bully Durant for easy baskets.
With the exception of some occasional head-scratchers from Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford (part of the package), the players on this team generally understand their own strengths and weaknesses, and what they should do on a given possession. I especially enjoyed a moment with about 6:50 to go, when Matthews found himself isolated at the top of the arc against Nick Collison on a switch. Guards live for this moment — one-on-one against a slower big guy. Matthews waved away Nicolas Batum’s offer of a pick and appeared ready to attack – before noticing Aldridge had an even better mismatch against James Harden on the left block. Matthews immediately switched course and swung the ball to Wallace, who was calling for it on the left wing, because he had a better angle to toss an entry pass to Aldridge. Smart, selfless offense — the kind of offense you have to play when you lack a top-dog perimeter player.
Still, there are questions we have to answer before we anoint the Blazers as a contender:
• To what degree will the shooting numbers even out, and what happens when they do?
Portland has held opponents to just 26.3 percent shooting from three-point range, the second-lowest mark in the league. That will come up, even if the Blazers, blessed with smart perimeter defenders and two big men who can cover the pick-and-roll well (Aldridge and Marcus Camby) look to have the personnel of a good perimeter defense. Opponents have jacked about 20 threes per game against Portland, an average number once you factor in the team’s fast pace, so it’s not as if they have been gun-shy.
On the flip side, the Blazers are taking a ton of long two-pointers and have hit 45 percent of them so far – the third-best mark in the league, and a number that isn’t going to be sustainable. Aldridge is taking 7.4 per game, second-most in the league (to LeBron James) and has hit a Dirk Nowitzki-like 51 percent so far from that range. Aldridge is a good shooter, but he’s never been this good. Crawford is taking way more long twos per 40 minutes than ever before in his trigger-happy career, and he’s so far been able to make them at an above-average rate – typical for him — despite the increased volume.
The Blazers, relative to last season, are taking fewer threes and more long twos, normally a bad idea. It’s working so far, but can it last?
• Can they keep up this rebounding?
Portland was an awful defensive rebounding team last season — 24th in defensive rebounding rate — in part because Aldridge, for whatever reason, has never been much of a rebounder. His numbers are even worse this season, but Portland is covering for him by playing its small lineups (with Wallace at power forward) more sparingly than expected and getting massive defensive rebounding numbers from Camby, Wallace, Batum and Matthews (remarkably sporting the same defensive rebounding rate as Aldridge). Even Crawford, heretofore one of the league’s very worst rebounders, is grabbing defensive boards at a career-best rate. The net result: The Blazers are second overall in defensive rebounding rate, having gobbled up 80 percent of opponent misses so far; no team even approached that number last season.
Again, this is the same selfless, gang contribution mentality we’re seeing on offense. But it’s fair to ask what will happen if Camby and/or Kurt Thomas gets hurt or tired, or if the Blazers realize they need to play small more often in order to score efficiently. And can the perimeter guys continue to defend the three at an elite level and contribute on the glass?
We’ll learn more as the season goes on, but right now, the Blazers look legit.
http://sinbapointforward.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/aldridge.jpg
About 28 of Portland's 83 shots per game (33.7 percent) have come at the rim so far this season.
We’re not even 10 percent through the regular season, so the importance of any statistical trend falls somewhere between “totally meaningless” and “possibly indicative of larger things to come.” With that in mind, four teams rank among the top 10 in both points scored and allowed per possession: the Heat, Bulls, 76ers and Trail Blazers.
The first two might be the two very best teams in the league. Philadelphia has played a league-low four games, and though all have been on the road, three have come against probable or certain lottery teams. And then there’s Portland, a sad sack franchise that draws sympathy but little respect as a legitimate contender. A few of us labeled the Blazers as potential sleepers in the Western Conference, but even the optimists didn’t quite expect Nate McMillan’s slow-poke team to turn into a fast-paced, rim-attacking, foul-drawing monster that destroyed every opponent three-point attack. And when the Blazers came out running at a breakneck pace that meshes well with Raymond Felton and Gerald Wallace, smart folks like SB Nation’s Mike Prada wondered how they’d fare against a good team that slowed things down a bit.
The Blazers answered emphatically in a smart, efficient, fantastic win Tuesday at Oklahoma City, a team admittedly playing on the second end of a tough Dallas-Portland back-to-back. It was easily Portland’s slowest game of the season, featuring just 91 possessions, below the league’s average, let alone the average for a Portland team that ranks fourth in possessions per game even after last night. And the Blazers — not the Thunder — looked like the disciplined team ready to play grind-it-out ball. They got to the line 36 times, becoming a normal thing for a team that ranks fifth in free-throw rate after finishing in the middle of the league last season. They rebounded a decent share of their own misses, reminding us that what had been a top-five offensive rebounding team for two straight seasons remains solidly in the top 10 in offensive rebounding rate so far in this one.
The Blazers took a lot of shots (26) at the rim, something they have done much more of this season. About 28 of Portland’s 83 shots per game – 33.7 percent — have come at the rim; such close shots accounted for just 30.5 percent of its overall attempts last season, and considering how often this team is getting to the line now, those stats undersell the degree to which it is going to the basket. LaMarcus Aldridge is shooting more jumpers, but he hasn’t reduced his close shots or free throws in the process. Gerald Wallace is barely shooting long two-pointers at all so far, preferring to either fly to the rim or shoot threes. And while he’s not even an average three-point shooter, if he’s going to shoot long jumpers, you’d at least prefer they count for an extra point in the event they go in. (You might also prefer that a few more come from the corners, but we’re dealing with a tiny sample size.)
Basically, the Blazers have changed their identity without sacrificing much of what their refined, slow-paced predecessors did. They have been more careless with the ball than McMillan’s typically turnover-phobic teams, but even in turnover rate, which factors in pace, the Blazers have been average. And average there is acceptable, considering Portland is still forcing turnovers at a slightly better-than-average rate. A team that used to win the turnover battle handily can live with drawing even if their fast-paced style creates benefits elsewhere.
And the Blazers just looked like the more polished team in the half-court Tuesday in Oklahoma City — like a team that knows exactly what it wants to do every time down. When Wesley Matthews found himself matched up with the shorter, lighter Daequan Cook, he transformed from a spot-up shooter/off-ball cutter into a one-on-one attacker from the perimeter and the post — and to great success. When Wallace, playing either forward position, drew Kevin Durant as his defender, he went to the block, where the Blazers fed him repeatedly and watched him bully Durant for easy baskets.
With the exception of some occasional head-scratchers from Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford (part of the package), the players on this team generally understand their own strengths and weaknesses, and what they should do on a given possession. I especially enjoyed a moment with about 6:50 to go, when Matthews found himself isolated at the top of the arc against Nick Collison on a switch. Guards live for this moment — one-on-one against a slower big guy. Matthews waved away Nicolas Batum’s offer of a pick and appeared ready to attack – before noticing Aldridge had an even better mismatch against James Harden on the left block. Matthews immediately switched course and swung the ball to Wallace, who was calling for it on the left wing, because he had a better angle to toss an entry pass to Aldridge. Smart, selfless offense — the kind of offense you have to play when you lack a top-dog perimeter player.
Still, there are questions we have to answer before we anoint the Blazers as a contender:
• To what degree will the shooting numbers even out, and what happens when they do?
Portland has held opponents to just 26.3 percent shooting from three-point range, the second-lowest mark in the league. That will come up, even if the Blazers, blessed with smart perimeter defenders and two big men who can cover the pick-and-roll well (Aldridge and Marcus Camby) look to have the personnel of a good perimeter defense. Opponents have jacked about 20 threes per game against Portland, an average number once you factor in the team’s fast pace, so it’s not as if they have been gun-shy.
On the flip side, the Blazers are taking a ton of long two-pointers and have hit 45 percent of them so far – the third-best mark in the league, and a number that isn’t going to be sustainable. Aldridge is taking 7.4 per game, second-most in the league (to LeBron James) and has hit a Dirk Nowitzki-like 51 percent so far from that range. Aldridge is a good shooter, but he’s never been this good. Crawford is taking way more long twos per 40 minutes than ever before in his trigger-happy career, and he’s so far been able to make them at an above-average rate – typical for him — despite the increased volume.
The Blazers, relative to last season, are taking fewer threes and more long twos, normally a bad idea. It’s working so far, but can it last?
• Can they keep up this rebounding?
Portland was an awful defensive rebounding team last season — 24th in defensive rebounding rate — in part because Aldridge, for whatever reason, has never been much of a rebounder. His numbers are even worse this season, but Portland is covering for him by playing its small lineups (with Wallace at power forward) more sparingly than expected and getting massive defensive rebounding numbers from Camby, Wallace, Batum and Matthews (remarkably sporting the same defensive rebounding rate as Aldridge). Even Crawford, heretofore one of the league’s very worst rebounders, is grabbing defensive boards at a career-best rate. The net result: The Blazers are second overall in defensive rebounding rate, having gobbled up 80 percent of opponent misses so far; no team even approached that number last season.
Again, this is the same selfless, gang contribution mentality we’re seeing on offense. But it’s fair to ask what will happen if Camby and/or Kurt Thomas gets hurt or tired, or if the Blazers realize they need to play small more often in order to score efficiently. And can the perimeter guys continue to defend the three at an elite level and contribute on the glass?
We’ll learn more as the season goes on, but right now, the Blazers look legit.