Porn for Bonner Fans - Spurs vs. Nuggets Pregame Thoughts

[timvp]

Matt Bonner isn't exactly the most beloved around these parts. And honestly, I'm pretty tired of his act, too. A lot of us will agree that the Spurs have been burned too many times in the playoffs due to the coaching staff trusting Bonner too much.

However, despite his shortcomings when the postseason lights are turned on, Bonner remains a statistical regular season phenom. Every year, he's at the top of the plus/minus stats for the team. This year is no different: he has the best plus/minus per minute of any player in the rotation. The Spurs outscore opponents by 14.6 points per 48 minutes that Bonner is on the court -- a full two points higher than the next closest player.

Don't worry, ElNono, I'm not going to get into the debate on why Bonner thrives in regular season plus/minus. That's a discussion for another post.

However, what I do want to point out is that every advanced stat points to Bonner having a dominant defensive year so far this year. Yes, Bonner dominant on defense.

Opponents Points Per 48
Matt Bonner - 82.1
Danny Green - 85.3
Richard Jefferson - 85.4
Tiago Splitter - 86.0

So with Bonner on the court, the Spurs defense is more than three points per 48 minutes better than the second best number. Going further, the Spurs give up 93.9 points per 100 possessions with Bonner on the court and 106.7 points per 100 possessions when Bonner is off the court.

Bonner must just be getting lucky, right? Perhaps, but even his individual advanced stats are dominant. The players Bonner defend have a cumulative PER of 9.4, which is much better than the corresponding numbers for the other bigs on the team: Duncan at 16.1, Splitter at 17.6, Blair at 21.8.

If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, I guess we have at least to consider the possibility that Bonner isn't the pushover on defense that many profess.

Kawhi Leonard's NBA Skill
I've been hard on Kawhi Leonard to date in his rookie season due to his seemingly diminishing offensive capabilities. However, so far he has shown a legitimate NBA skill: the ability to rebound.

Leonard's rebound rate is currently 14.8 and that's the best number in the entire NBA for a small forward. Even more impressive is that Leonard hasn't played much small ball power forward this year, while just about every other great small forward rebounder spends plenty of time at PF.

And this doesn't look much like a fluke. Leonard was a fantastic rebounder in college and while he's not overly athletic, he shows very good timing and a willingness to bang.

Leonard's ability to rebound has a profound effect on the team's overall ability to rebound. When he's off the court, the Spurs grab only 48.9% of available rebounds. When Leonard is on the court, that number skyrockets to 57.6%.

If Leonard can become a plus defender, remain a great rebounder and become even halfway passable on offense, he'll have a long NBA career.

Danny Green Ain't No Slouch, Either
Quietly, Danny Green is also a really good rebounder. In fact, of shooting guards who have played at least 70 minutes this season, Green leads the way in rebound rate (12.6).

Are Green's numbers a fluke? Maybe not. This year, he's averaging 8.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. Last year with the Spurs, he averaged 6.5 rebounds per 40 minutes. In 19 career games in the D-League, he averaged 7.9 rebounds per 40 minutes. In his junior year at North Carolina, he averaged 8.8 rebounds per 40 minutes.

While Green's defensive energy and three-point shooting might be the most noticeable parts of his game, don't overlook his rebounding. Going forward, Green and Leonard paired together could be deceptively effective simply due to their ability to control the glass.

Nuggets Nuggets
On paper, the Nuggets are a horrible matchup for the Spurs. Right now, the two biggest issues for San Antonio are stamina and depth in the paint. Denver is first by a mile in the NBA in both fast break points per game (24.2 points, Chicago is second at 19.9) and points in the paint (52.8 points, Miami is second at 49.8).

The Nuggets are also great at getting to the free throw line, while the Spurs defense is dependent on keeping opponents off the line. Add in the facts that the Nuggets are extremely deep and that they allow opposing teams to shoot only 26.3% on three-pointers (second best in the NBA) and it's safe to say the Spurs are in trouble.

That said, the Spurs are at home and they've shown a lot of heart the last two outings so there's a chance ... but probably not a good chance.

[ElNono]

Don't worry, ElNono, I'm not going to get into the debate on why Bonner thrives in regular season plus/minus. That's a discussion for another post.

Good, good. Now let me read your post in it's entirety :lol

[itzsoweezee]

Bonner has the lowest defensive rating on the team. You, and your stats, are simply wrong.

[underdawg]

not hard to understand - his lack of athleticism confuses opponents.

[itzsoweezee]

Bonner allows 104 per 100 possessions. In comparison, Splitter allows 97, Duncan allows 98, and Blair allows 101. Bonner's defensive win shares is .1, Blair's is .2, and Splitter and Duncan's is .3.

Bonner is the worst player on the team in both of those stats.

You are simply, completely wrong. On top of objective statistics, simple observation backs up how wrong you are.

[ElNono]

Yeah, I'm looking at his Defensive rating on basketball-reference, and it's 104 (104 points per 100 possessions) this season. Not sure where the 93.9 comes from.

He's also posting the worst defensive winning shares of his entire career, but that might have to do with the fact that he's also experiencing the lowest usage of his career (always a positive thing. We'll see if people that claim he should be only be playing 10-15mpg are onto something).

Ultimately, I hope the current usage will also mirror during the playoffs. Let's hope he's not being 'rested'. The Spurs still need a decent 4th big. Ike is not it. Hope they keep on looking.

Thanks for the writeup.

[timvp]

Bonner has the lowest defensive rating on the team. You, and your stats, are simply wrong.


Bonner allows 104 per 100 possessions. In comparison, Splitter allows 97, Duncan allows 98, and Blair allows 101. Bonner's defensive win shares is .1, Blair's is .2, and Splitter and Duncan's is .3.

Bonner is the worst player on the team in both of those stats.

You are simply, completely wrong. On top of objective statistics, simple observation backs up how wrong you are.

:lol Try again.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS10.HTM

You obviously don't know what you are talking about. Defensive rating is calculated using stats, not actual performance.

Apology accepted in advance.

[itzsoweezee]

:lol Try again.

You obviously don't know what you are talking about. Defensive rating is calculated using stats, not actual performance.

Apology accepted in advance.



Read it and weep:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html

[DPG21920]

ST sh:loltting on Timvp

[ElNono]

The difference could be a per-48m adjustment. Not sure. I would think whatever the adjustment is would apply evenly though.

[timvp]

Read it and weep:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html

You obviously don't know how Defensive Rating is calculated. Let me find the formula so you can go ahead and apologize.

BRB.

[Kori Ellis]

Basketball-reference.com's results are an "estimate" based on a formula developed by Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper -- it's not the actual points allowed per 100 possessions.

[ElNono]

BTW, I thought last two games were the best two games from Matt.

[itzsoweezee]

Basketball-reference.com's results are an "estimate" based on a formula developed by Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper -- it's not the actual points allowed per 100 possessions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_rating

Defensive Rating = (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100

Anything else you'd like to be educated on? Let me know.

[ElNono]

I gotta go do groceries... I'll apologize later before the game starts

:lol

[Kori Ellis]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_rating

Defensive Rating = (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100

Anything else you'd like to be educated on? Let me know.

That's incorrect. Basketball-reference.com uses a formula that includes a lot of other crap.

[GoodOdor]

itssoweezee educating fools.

[ElNono]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_rating

Defensive Rating = (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100

Anything else you'd like to be educated on? Let me know.

It does say on b-r.com that's an estimate though.

[DPG21920]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_rating

Defensive Rating = (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100

Anything else you'd like to be educated on? Let me know.

fQbRyay_ojY

[itzsoweezee]

It does say on b-r.com that's an estimate though.

Yeah, it's an estimate of his defensive ability.

The site clearly says that it uses Oliver's formula.

[itzsoweezee]

That's incorrect. Basketball-reference.com uses a formula that includes a lot of other crap.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

"Defensive Rating (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 posessions. This rating was developed by Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper. I will point you to Dean's book for complete details."


You're welcome.

[dylankerouac]

Great info here, thanks Timvp. Hopefully both teams keep this close and the Spurs pull away at the end.

[timvp]

You obviously don't know how Defensive Rating is calculated. Let me find the formula so you can go ahead and apologize.

BRB.


It uses existing defensive stats -- defensive rebounds, blocks, steals, fouls -- to estimate defensive usage (how many possessions each player was responsible for defending) and "stops" (how many times that defender prevented the other team from scoring).


Yeah, so obviously if you try to use defensive rebounds, blocks, steals and fouls in a calculation to figure out how good Bonner plays defense, of course he's going to look like the worst player on earth. He doesn't do any of that.

And, like I said, you don't understand what you are quoting. That isn't points allowed per 100 possessions. It's a calculation based on available stats to estimate points allowed per 100 possessions. HUGE difference. And honestly, I don't know why someone would want an estimate when you can have the real thing.

As you can see at 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS10.HTM), Bonner allows 93.9 points per 100 possessions. That's not an estimate; that's a fact.

So yeah, before imploding your chode all over your keyboard in an attempt to prove me wrong, know what you're talking about first.

Thanks.

[itzsoweezee]

Yeah, so obviously if you try to use defensive rebounds, blocks, steals and fouls in a calculation to figure out how good Bonner plays defense, of course he's going to look like the worst player on earth. He doesn't do any of that.

And, like I said, you don't understand what you are quoting. That isn't points allowed per 100 possessions. It's a calculation based on available stats to estimate points allowed per 100 possessions. HUGE difference. And honestly, I don't know why someone would want an estimate when you can have the real thing.

As you can see at 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS10.HTM), Bonner allows 93.9 points per 100 possessions. That's not an estimate; that's a fact.

So yeah, before imploding your chode all over your keyboard in an attempt to prove me wrong, know what you're talking about first.

Thanks.


Lol, you are a moron. I even connected the fucking dots for you.

[timvp]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_rating

Defensive Rating = (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100

Anything else you'd like to be educated on? Let me know.

:lmao That's not the basketball-reference version of defensive rating. Read where it says "estimate" based on stats.

Got damn hilarious.

[DPG21920]

http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/4940/ohhh.gif

[Kori Ellis]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

"Defensive Rating (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 posessions. This rating was developed by Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper. I will point you to Dean's book for complete details."


You're welcome.

It's an ESTIMATE of points allowed per 100 possessions, based on his formula. His formula gives you bonuses for things like blocks, steals, etc. and it takes away from you for things like fouls, etc.

The stat on 82games.com is just a straight up stat -- how many points were allowed per 100 possessions while the guy was on the floor. The stat on basketball-reference.com is an ESTIMATE of points allowed per 100 possessions created by Oliver's formula (which accounts for things like blocks, steals, fouls, etc.)

Seriously, I'm not trying to be a b1tch, just read around the internet (or pick up that book) and you'll see it's a formula based on a lot of factors.

[itzsoweezee]

As you can see at 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS10.HTM), Bonner allows 93.9 points per 100 possessions. That's not an estimate; that's a fact.



Lol, you're not even right about this "fact."

It says right on the page you cited: "Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis"

[DPG21920]

Lol, you're not even right about this "fact."

It says right on the page you cited: "Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis"

http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/NETSFAN.gif

[itzsoweezee]

It's an ESTIMATE of points allowed per 100 possessions, based on his formula. His formula gives you bonuses for things like blocks, steals, etc. and it takes away from you for things like fouls, etc.

The stat on 82games.com is just a straight up stat -- how many points were allowed per 100 possessions while the guy was on the floor. The stat on basketball-reference.com is an ESTIMATE of points allowed per 100 possessions created by Oliver's formula (which accounts for things like blocks, steals, fouls, etc.)




Defensive Rating= Points allowed*100/possessions

That's a quote from Oliver's own article. http://www.powerbasketball.com/theywin2.html

[timvp]

Lol, you are a moron. I even connected the fucking dots for you.

What don't you understand? WTF?

Click the link I gave you. Scroll down and look at Matt Bonner's "Defense: Pts per 100 Poss."

If you don't believe that, go here:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22011&split=9&team=Spurs

Then divide Bonner's points allowed by his minutes, multiply by 48 minutes and then adjust for pace to get it to 100 possessions. Hint: you'll come up with the same number available at 82games.com.

Again, the number on basketball-reference.com is calculated with rebounds, blocks, steals, fouls, etc. and is an ESTIMATE of how many points he's allowing per 100 possessions. But there's no reason to use an estimate when the actual stat is available.





I know Bonner haters are rabid but damn this is amazing :lmao

[timvp]

Lol, you're not even right about this "fact."

It says right on the page you cited: "Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis"

Do you not see words such as "many" and "estimate"? The stats below that in the table are per 48 minutes. That one specifically says per 100 possessions.

[timvp]

Do you not see words such as "many" and "estimate"? The stats below that in the table are per 48 minutes. That one specifically says per 100 possessions.

http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/5969/bonnerstats.jpg

[jeebus]

:corn:

EDIT: oh shit, MSpaint has been unleashed. It just got serious.

[Kori Ellis]

Defensive Rating= Points allowed*100/possessions

That's a quote from Oliver's own article. http://www.powerbasketball.com/theywin2.html

Correct. And to him "Points allowed" is the result of his formula.

[itzsoweezee]

:lmao That's not the basketball-reference version of defensive rating. Read where it says "estimate" based on stats.

Got damn hilarious.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

"Defensive Rating (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 posessions. This rating was developed by Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper. I will point you to Dean's book for complete details."

[WeNeedLength]

Bonner doesn't suck at defense, Bonner does suck at defense. Which one do you think Spurstalk will argue for? That's what I thought. Complete fluke of stats except for only one reason I can think of. We have not seen nearly as much Turd Towers as we did last season so whoever Bonner is paired up with doesn't suck nearly as bad as Blair does on defense.

[Kori Ellis]

You aren't getting it. The guy made up a formula to determine what "Points allowed" is.

His formula takes into account, blocks, steals, fouls, etc.
His formula is an estimate (in his mind) of points allowed.

It's not necessarily a bad stat... it's just not = actual points allowed.

[DeadlyDynasty]

:corn:

[DPG21920]

:lol Timvp being trolled. Message from Itzso


itzsoweezee 5:35 p.m. 01/07/2012

Hey dpg, watch the Timvp pre-game thread. I'm going to mess with him lol

[DPG21920]

Strong case for top 20 AP poll imo

[itzsoweezee]

Correct. And to him "Points allowed" is the result of his formula.


"Points divided by possessions times 100. Also called simply "Rating", "Offensive Rating" for points scored per 100 possessions, or "Defensive Rating" for points allowed per 100 possessions."

[Kori Ellis]

According to Oliver's formula:

DRtg=TMDRtg+.2*[100*DPtsPerScPoss*(1-Stop%)-TMDRtg]
where
TMDRtg=(Points allowed*100)/Possessions

DPtsPerScPoss=Points scored per opponents' scoring possessions

Stop%=Individual defensive stops/stops+defensive scoring possessions (this is the stat that accounts for blocks, steals, etc.)

[WeNeedLength]

:lol Timvp being trolled. Message from Itzso

http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/22/obama_applause.gif

[Kori Ellis]

Any other questions?

[DPG21920]

:lol Kori, not you too

[timvp]

Defensive Rating= Points allowed*100/possessions


Okay, bro, then let's do that exercise.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22011&split=9&team=Spurs

Bonner has given up 225 points in 131.5 minutes.

225 divided by 131.5 = 1.71 points per minute Bonner is giving up

1.71 multiplied by 48 minutes = 82.1 points Bonner is giving up per game

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor

In that link, you can see the Spurs average 93.5 possessions per 48 minutes.

82.1 divided by 93.5 multiplied by 100 = 87.8 points per 100 possessions

Adjust that 87.8 to account for the slower pace that the team plays at with Bonner on the court and you get the original number from 82games.com.

Apology, once again, accepted.

If you think the Spurs give up 104 points per 100 possessions with Bonner on the court ... I have no idea what to tell you at this point.

[timvp]

According to Oliver's formula:

DRtg=TMDRtg+.2*[100*DPtsPerScPoss*(1-Stop%)-TMDRtg]
where
TMDRtg=(Points allowed*100)/Possessions

DPtsPerScPoss=Points scored per opponents' scoring possessions

Stop%=Individual defensive stops/stops+defensive scoring possessions (this is the stat that accounts for blocks, steals, etc.)

Ah shyt, game over.

:married:

[DPG21920]

itzso bursting onto the scene son.

[Bruno]

Bonner is playing against bench players who aren't, most of the time, as good offensive players as starters.

[Kori Ellis]

Oh and by the way, Bonner sucks.

[jeebus]

itzso bursting onto the scene son.

He did do a nice troll job.

[timvp]

Wait, it gets better. By using Dean Oliver's defensive rating estimate on basektball-reference.com, Bruce Bowen was the worst defender on the team during the 2005 season.

http://img815.imageshack.us/img815/2730/bowen05.jpg

Do you still think it means points given up per 100 possessions? :lmao

Bowen didn't get steals or blocks so these types of "estimates" were absolutely worthless.

[DPG21920]

Timvp has lost it :lol

[timvp]

During the 2007 championship season, Bowen tied with Finley and Beno :lmao

http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/911/bowen07.jpg

[jeebus]

Timvp IS itzso. It totally makes sense.

[WeNeedLength]

Oh and by the way, Bonner sucks.

/thread :tu

[jjktkk]

not hard to understand - his lack of athleticism confuses opponents.

:lol

[timvp]

Timvp has lost it :lol

:lol Bro came at me hard and quick with that ish. I'll give it to him that he had me open about five windows at the same time to try to keep up and disprove him before he buried me.

Honestly, though, I see where he got confused. Basektball-reference.com isn't too specific about the origins of that stat. I'm pretty sure he was legitimately confused but if that was a troll job, it was a hell of a troll job. He got me.

[DPG21920]

Drop the bombshell, Itzso. Drop.It.

[chazley]

Timvp, welcome to my world. Defending bonner, no matter how strong your argument is, only results in all the spurstalk idiots coming out of the wood work. Ive defended bonner for two years straight now, only using facts, yet people use their eyes and only see an awkward white dude who runs like a t-rex and has the worst dribble drive in history of league.

Ironic that only the highly reapected poaters such as myself are the only ones who appreciate what bonner brings to this team in a limited role.

[chazley]

Bonner is playing against bench players who aren't, most of the time, as good offensive players as starters.

People use this quote way too often. Its a fucking useless point. Sorry.

[timvp]

Drop the bombshell, Itzso. Drop.It.

It's over.

HPoWrWwwi8M

[timvp]

Defending bonner, no matter how strong your argument is, only results in all the spurstalk idiots coming out of the wood work

The ironic thing is I'm not even defending Bonner. I've given up on him being a playoff contributor on a championship team. I dislike Bonner as much as the average SpursTalk user.

I was just defending the stats. Bro called me everything but timvp before I had time to refresh...

[chazley]

The ironic thing is I'm not even defending Bonner. I've given up on him being a playoff contributor on a championship team. I dislike Bonner as much as the average SpursTalk user.

I was just defending the stats. Bro called me everything but timvp before I had time to refresh...

The dude has sucked repeatedly in the playoffs, no doubt. But at the same time, he almost single handedly won game 1 last year. If we cut bonner tomorrow, what kind of teams would like to have him? Miami... Chicago... Contenders that need outside shooting would love to have him in a limited role.

Alot of bonners playoff failures can be attributed to the overall ineffectiveness of the big three though. Bonner is not a guy who can create his shot, and he doeant have the quickest release. I saw his issues as more of his defender not having to help as much, moreso than him choking.

[Kori Ellis]

According to Oliver's formula:

DRtg=TMDRtg+.2*[100*DPtsPerScPoss*(1-Stop%)-TMDRtg]
where
TMDRtg=(Points allowed*100)/Possessions

DPtsPerScPoss=Points scored per opponents' scoring possessions

Stop%=Individual defensive stops/stops+defensive scoring possessions (this is the stat that accounts for blocks, steals, etc.)

Oh and to break it out even further, here's his formula for "stops" used in the stop% section.

Stops = steals + blocks x FMwt x (1-1.07 x opp OR%) + DR + (1-FMwt)

[Trill Clinton]

http://i944.photobucket.com/albums/ad289/bhilde1/2le3onb.gif

[Hooks]

I hope I can find the software for my capture card online, dude is terrible defensively just horrible.

[Josepatches_]

The defensive rating of basketball-reference fits much better with the reality of who is a better defensive player.

Some kind of stats can be real numbers but they are garbage because every player is playing a different role in a very different situation so you can't compare his work. +/- is one of this fake stats to me

Bonner's stats per 48 minutes are funny.Our defense is better but our offense is worse when he's playing. I agree with one

[chazley]

I hope I can find the software for my capture card online, dude is terrible defensively just horrible.

You could point out terrible defensive possessions for every spurs player... No one is mistaking this spurs group with the spurs of 4-5 years ago defensively. Bonner at least plays with effort at that end consistantly.. and for a player out there mainly for his offensive contributions, anything he does defensively is just a bonus.

[Josepatches_]

During the 2007 championship season, Bowen tied with Finley and Beno :lmao

http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/911/bowen07.jpg


Bowen seems to be one of the few ones who breaks the rule.

Anyway it fits better the defensive skills than the "real" defensive rating.That's sure. But it's far away to be perfect

[timvp]

The defensive rating of basketball-reference fits much better with the reality of who is a better defensive player.

So Bowen was the team's worst defender in 2005 and tied with Finley and Beno in 2007? That basketball-reference.com stat by Dean Oliver is extremely limited unless you think defense can be judged by blocks and steals.

Edit:

Bowen seems to be one of the few ones who breaks the rule.

Anyway it fits better the defensive skills than the "real" defensive rating.That's sure. But it's far away to be perfect

I really don't understand why it's necessary to use an estimate when you can just find and use the real thing. I guess it can be useful in some cases when you are trying to judge similar players.

[Kori Ellis]

To me, the only way to tell if someone is a bad defender is to watch the games. Any formula you create for defense (whether it's elaborate like Oliver's or simple) is going to only be "accurate" for certain players. It's interesting to read some of Oliver's old stuff though when he's developing the formula and tweaking it to account for this and that. Obviously it's not a fool-proof formula but interesting nonetheless.

[ElNono]

So I just got back from doing groceries... where we at? Do I still need to apologize?

:lol

As far as chazley is concerned, I want him to start spinning Matt's 3P% this season... pronto

[ElNono]

To me, the only way to tell if someone is a bad defender is to watch the games. Any formula you create for defense (whether it's elaborate like Oliver's or simple) is going to only be "accurate" for certain players. It's interesting to read some of Oliver's old stuff though when he's developing the formula and tweaking it to account for this and that. Obviously it's not a fool-proof formula but interesting nonetheless.

Winner... and I've given props to Bonner for the 2 good defensive plays he had this season (suck on that Uriel :lol)

[ElNono]

So Bowen was the team's worst defender in 2005 and tied with Finley and Beno in 2007? That basketball-reference.com stat by Dean Oliver is extremely limited unless you think defense can be judged by blocks and steals.

I tell you what though, statistically speaking, they're good enough to follow the progression between regular season and playoffs. But I already know you're not a Ginger lover, so I'm pretty sure you agree with me on this one.

[timvp]

Just to put BonnerGate to bed, here's a scan of Dean Oliver's book in question.

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/5691/oliver1.jpg

:lol @ arguing about a book that's on my shelf

[Brazil]

I don't hate Bonner at all, I just hate the way Pop is over using him.

[ElNono]

This thread proves there's such a thing as a statistical anomaly

[ElNono]

Just to put BonnerGate to bed, here's a scan of Dean Oliver's book in question.

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/5691/oliver1.jpg

:lol @ arguing about a book that's on my shelf

:lol rebounds
:lol 19 rebounds in 7 games

[ElNono]

BTW, what book is that?

[timvp]

So I just got back from doing groceries... where we at? Do I still need to apologize?

At least admit that you and your partner were wrong about the b-r.com definition of defensive rating since I'm sure he'll be out "doing groceries" for a while :lol

[NASpurs]

Is there a way to find which mix of Spurs players on the floor has the best defense?

[timvp]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

"Defensive Rating (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 posessions. This rating was developed by Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper. I will point you to Dean's book for complete details."


You're welcome.


BTW, what book is that?

That's a scan of "Basketball on Paper" by Dean Oliver who is explaining how he calculates defensive rating. Oliver's defensive rating is what is used on basketball-reference.com. You two were saying it was simply (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100 ... which it's obviously not.

Come on, keep up! :lol

[ElNono]

A couple of things to chew on about Matt, on a more serious note:

- He played 28 mins in the opener and 24 mins last game. Sandwiched in-between, his minutes have been under 20, at around 16 mpg. I think this is a reflection of Pop trusting Splitter.

- He was the 3rd big off the bench last game, when prior to that he was the 4th.

The question is, does the surge in the last game has to do with strictly matchups or some sort of loss in faith towards Splitter.

I think these are interesting subplots to look at in the next few games.

[ElNono]

At least admit that you and your partner were wrong about the b-r.com definition of defensive rating since I'm sure he'll be out "doing groceries" for a while :lol

:lol I was at Walmart, I have proof.

I did try to talk him out of the "estimate" argument, but he wouldn't have any of it. :lol

I apologize, IMO

[ElNono]

You two were saying it was simply (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100 ... which it's obviously not.

Don't throw me in the same bag. It does say in the site it's "an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions". :lol

[ElNono]

Oh, and thanks for the name of the book :tu

[timvp]

Is there a way to find which mix of Spurs players on the floor has the best defense?

Of mixes that have played at least five minutes together this season, the answer is:

PG Tony Parker
SG Danny Green
SF Richard Jefferson
PF Tiago Splitter
C Tim Duncan

[timvp]

Don't throw me in the same bag. It does say in the site it's "an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions". :lol

Yeah, true. Basketball-reference.com is really unclear with that. It shouldn't say that, IMO. It should specify that it's Dean Oliver's formula that attempts to estimate it using traditional stats.

Seriously, not your fault and not that other guy's fault. No apology necessary.

Maybe I'll ask b-r.com for an apology. :hat

[jestersmash]

This is the formula b-r uses for defensive rating (Dean Oliver's formula) -

Defensive Ratings
That was the offense. The defensive formulas are much simpler, because methods for defensive evaluation aren't as well developed theoretically. Simply put, I have struggled with evaluating players' defenses for many years now. I came up with a basic method three or four years ago called defensive stops, which are a way of estimating how many times a player stops the opposition from scoring. It's not a bad first approximation, but it misses out on players like Joe Dumars and Glenn Rivers, who prevent their assignments from scoring by not allowing them good looks at the basket. They don't get many defensive rebounds or blocks and don't steal the ball much, but they shut down their men. Doug Steele came up with a good way for accounting for this type of player, the kind of player I call a good man defender. On the other hand, my method does best at evaluating team defense, which would include blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds. Doug has begun including these in his method, too, but he uses a form of linear weights, something I disapprove of rather heartily.

Defensive stops occur every time the opposing offense ends a possession without scoring. This can happen via a turnover or a missed shot that the defense rebounds. I evaluate every player on the team as being roughly even in man defense. I do this by finding out how often (times per minute played) the opposition is stopped not through a steal or block, then multiply it by the individual's minutes played. In the formula, this is

Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN

The first part inside the square brackets is how many times the opposition misses a shot, then divided by a factor of two. I divide by two because half of a defensive stop is the missing of the shot -- the other half is getting the defensive rebound. (There is a slight error in logic in the previous statement. See if you can pick up on it.) The second part in the square brackets is the number of turnovers not caused by steals.

Now we've taken out the individual contributions of blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds to get an average estimate of man defense. It's time to add those back in for each individual. Just adding in an individual's steals and half of both his defensive rebounds and blocks gives an overall formula for defensive stops:

Defensive Stops =
Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
+ STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

Again, remember where we are and where we want to go. We have an offensive rating from above and now we need a defensive rating. We have defensive stops, not a defensive rating. We need to estimate "how many points per possession a player gives up."

This, I'm sorry to say, is difficult to define. How do you evaluate the guard who lets his man drive past him, where his center saves him by blocking the layup attempt? Who gets credit for the stop? Who gets the blame if the layup isn't blocked and goes in? These are theoretical difficulties. Generally, a team plays a style of defense that either asks for help defense or asks for straight man defense or something in between. Depending on whether that guard was supposed to let his man go by determines whether he did something right. If he was supposed to let the man go by, then rotated to the big man's assignment to cut off the dump pass, he apparently did OK. If he was supposed to play straight, then any points scored should mostlly be blamed on him, not the big man covering the little guys' back when it's not his responsibility.

Given this dilemma, how do we proceed? Basically, I try to fit defensive stops into a framework that makes some sense if we ignore the above questions. Ignoring the difficulties sometimes allows one to see a solution. That is my guiding paradigm here.

If we can somehow evaluate how many stops per possession a player has, we essentially have the defensive equivalent of a floor percentage Going from this to a points per possession rating is fairly straightforward. This is the method.

To find the stops per possession, divide a player's total defensive stops by his minutes played, multiply by the team's minutes played, and divide by the team's total number of possessions:


Stops/Poss= (Stops*TMMIN)/ (Min*TMPoss)


This number turns out to be very high for some players. For example, Olajuwon consistently has a stops/poss value of 0.7 or so. This would mean that he stops seven tenths of all possessions he is responsible for. Or his opponents score only 30% of the time against him, for a rough rating of 60. Olajuwon is a good defender, but he's not that good.

In order to compensate for this flaw, I weight the team's defensive rating with the individual's stops/poss value. I weight them 80% to 20% because I figure that one player is 20% of his defensive team. It's a little hokey, logically, but it gives results that I'm fairly pleased with, as I mentioned above:

Def. Rtg = 0.8*TMDef.Rtg + 0.2*(200*(1-stops/poss))

For completeness, the factor 200*(1-stops/poss) is an approximation of the points per 100 possessions arising from the given value of stops/poss.

[underdawg]

Is there a way to find which mix of Spurs players on the floor has the best defense?

damon stoudamire, mike finley, matt bonner, will perdue and jack haley

[ElNono]

Yeah, true. Basketball-reference.com is really unclear with that. It shouldn't say that, IMO. It should specify that it's Dean Oliver's formula that attempts to estimate it using traditional stats.

Seriously, not your fault and not that other guy's fault. No apology necessary.

Maybe I'll ask b-r.com for an apology. :hat

Here's what funny with those numbers from 82games.com you linked.

If you look at Net 48-Minute Production by Position, other teams score an average 2.2 more points per 48 while he's on the floor. You just have to wonder how we've blown out teams with him being the best big defender, playing reduced minutes and leaking points...

[ElNono]

I'll chalk it up to the Richard Jefferson shooting 50% effect :lol

[mystargtr34]

Bonner will always have decent defensive statistics because he's always on the floor with either Tim or Tiago.. while Tim and Tiago will always have slightly underwhelming defensive statistics because they are always playing next to either Bonner or Blair.. arguably two of the worst defenders in the league.

You play Blair and Bonner together they would be up around 105 points per 100 possesions.. even playing against second units. You put Tim and Tiago together for extended minutes and their numbers would be around 90.

[mystargtr34]

dp

[DMC]

Bonner is the Nugget stopper.

[Blake]

could have used some of that elite Bonner defense in the second half.

[lurker23]

I've written a lot of words on Bonner on this site, mostly defending him. This is not because he's an amazing player, but because he's an average player with legitimate NBA talent in certain areas (and obvious deficiencies in others), yet the hyperbole makes him sound like the worst player this side of Mengke Bateer.

Anyway, that's my long way of saying I don't feel like talking about it at the moment, and I'm only posting to say:

I'm very disappointed in this thread. Based on the title, I was looking forward to a nice centerfold spread of lucious sandwiches.

[ElNono]

I'm very disappointed in this thread. Based on the title, I was looking forward to a nice centerfold spread of lucious sandwiches.

:lol

[ElNono]

A couple of things to chew on about Matt, on a more serious note:

- He played 28 mins in the opener and 24 mins last game. Sandwiched in-between, his minutes have been under 20, at around 16 mpg. I think this is a reflection of Pop trusting Splitter.

- He was the 3rd big off the bench last game, when prior to that he was the 4th.

The question is, does the surge in the last game has to do with strictly matchups or some sort of loss in faith towards Splitter.

I think these are interesting subplots to look at in the next few games.

Tiago played a lot today, and Matty almost nothing... so I guess it's all strictly based on matchups these days, nothing about lost love... :tu

[DAF86]

So the fact that we sucked so much on defense last night is that Bonner played 7 minutes?

[thispego]

Yeah, so obviously if you try to use defensive rebounds, blocks, steals and fouls in a calculation to figure out how good Bonner plays defense, of course he's going to look like the worst player on earth. He doesn't do any of that.

And, like I said, you don't understand what you are quoting. That isn't points allowed per 100 possessions. It's a calculation based on available stats to estimate points allowed per 100 possessions. HUGE difference. And honestly, I don't know why someone would want an estimate when you can have the real thing.

As you can see at 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS10.HTM), Bonner allows 93.9 points per 100 possessions. That's not an estimate; that's a fact.

So yeah, before imploding your chode all over your keyboard in an attempt to prove me wrong, know what you're talking about first.

Thanks.

OWNED!! go clean yourself off itsoweezy

[jjktkk]

Per Mike Monroe, twitter, this must be the real reason Bon Bon ain't in beast mode yet...


http://t.co/0u5e29KG

[jag]

DPG with the serious goods in this thread

[GoodOdor]

Bonner earning his defensive stats out there tonight:toast

[ElNono]

:lmao Nick Collison

Somebody get a gif of that stuff...

[GoodOdor]

:lmao Nick Collison

Somebody get a gif of that stuff...

:depressed:depressed:depressedbut the stats say bonner is a good defender:depressed:depressed:depressed