Predicting the Presidential Election: 2012

[Nbadan]

using his method, this guy has only been 100% right...


Amidst all the fuss about President Obama's sagging poll numbers, the struggling U.S. economy, and "who's up and who's down" in the Republican presidential primary contest, American University professor Allan Lichtman has issued his "sure fire" prediction for the outcome of the November 2012 election.

Their approach was based on a thorough analysis of the forces at work in shaping the political landscape in every U.S. presidential elections from 1860 to 1980. From this examination they developed their predictive model. And since then, Lichtman has used it to correctly forecast the outcome of every election from 1984 through 2008.

....At the end of December 2011, I hosted Lichtman on my TV show, Viewpoint, where he issued his "one year before the election" prediction. According to Lichtman, the only three "Keys" which President Obama has definitely lost, to date, are #1, #6 and #12. Democrats clearly suffered significant losses in the 2010 mid-term elections (Key #1); the economy will not recover sufficiently to mark an increase in per capita income (Key #6); and while Obama was a charismatic figure in 2008, his aura has diminished and will not be a major factor in his favor in 2012 (Key #12). That makes three "Keys" gone. In addition, there are a few that are questionable, namely: Key #10 and Key #11 -- since it is not clear that killing bin Laden or the withdrawal from Iraq will be seen as "victories," or, conversely, that instability in Iraq and Afghanistan or a dreaded future terrorist attack will constitute a "foreign policy failure."

Nevertheless, this still leaves a maximum of 10 "Keys" and a minimum of eight "Keys" in the president's favor, enough for Lichtman, who has never been wrong, to confidently predict Obama's reelection in November.

Guess the world really will end in December...

[lefty]

Obama :tu

[ElNono]

there's a first time for everything

[Vinnie_Johnson]

Only a pure Idiot would think Obama is doing a good job.

[Nbadan]

there's a first time for everything

Yeah, Like being 100% correct..

[ElNono]

Yeah, Like being 100% correct..

Or being wrong

[Wild Cobra]

using his method, this guy has only been 100% right...



Guess the world really will end in December...
Are you saying Obama will be reelected?

[Trainwreck2100]

I could see this being a 2004 redux where the other party assumes they can just throw somebody out there and they'll get the win over the incumbent. The Republican candidate's are weak.

[mavs>spurs]

He wants to legalize be@ners and attack Iran, as well as signing that NDAA bill. The Kenyan must not be reelected.

[Winehole23]

being Mexican isn't a crime

[Winehole23]

lol Kenyan

[JoeChalupa]

I could see this being a 2004 redux where the other party assumes they can just throw somebody out there and they'll get the win over the incumbent. The Republican candidate's are weak.

I concur but I don't see Obama getting the support he did in '08. If he wins re-election I'll be shocked.

[Nbadan]

The people who hate Obama hate Gingrich, Paul, Santorum, Perry and Romney even more, so no, I would not be surprised to see Obama win re-election...

[CosmicCowboy]

I'll just be glad when the primaries are over. These endless debates were a huge tactical mistake for the Republicans as they are just doing Obamas work for him and tearing each other up.

In the end they will come together and the voters desire to get rid of Obama will trump the damage the infighting has done but they have made it a lot harder than it needed to be.

[EVAY]

The people who hate Obama hate Gingrich, Paul, Santorum, Perry and Romney even more, so no, I would not be surprised to see Obama win re-election...

How do you see this? I think most of the people who hate Obama LOVE one of the others, whether it is Santorum or Perry or Gingrich or Paul.

I think the people who hate Obama may also hate Romney and/or Hunstman, but not the others.

I thought Huntsman made a great showing in both Saturday night and Sunday morning's debate...but he has about as much chance of getting the Republican nomination as you do, Dan.

[EVAY]

It is way way way too early to predict this next election. I don't think the voting public has an attention span long enough to stay with this from now until November. Whenever the
Republican nominee is settled, people will stop paying attention until the respective Party Conventions occur and then things will heat up. Whatever is happening then and whoever is getting the media attention will be the focus of the campaigns and will determine the winner.

[Borat Sagyidev]

He wants to legalize be@ners and attack Iran, as well as signing that NDAA bill. The Kenyan must not be reelected.

Wow, not only is he not a Kenyan he's been pretty harsh with deportation policies. You must be trolling again.

On a serious note, I think it's more beneficial to the economy to keep a group of people willing to work hard to make a buck, i.e. the labor that immigration brings in than someone who thinks graduating with a mediocre accounting/finance degree is something to brag about.

[Borat Sagyidev]

How do you see this? I think most of the people who hate Obama LOVE one of the others, whether it is Santorum or Perry or Gingrich or Paul.

I think the people who hate Obama may also hate Romney and/or Hunstman, but not the others.

I thought Huntsman made a great showing in both Saturday night and Sunday morning's debate...but he has about as much chance of getting the Republican nomination as you do, Dan.

And this is the problem with the GOP. The one guy with a reasonable shot of broad support across America (Huntsman) is thrown under the bus. He may not be able to win the GOP primary, but he'd fair better nationwide.

He's a guy who you could disagree with and have a working relationship with. The other GOP candidates are about as diplomatic as a dining room table.

[EVAY]

And this is the problem with the GOP. The one guy with a reasonable shot of broad support across America (Huntsman) is thrown under the bus. He may not be able to win the GOP primary, but he'd fair better nationwide.

He's a guy who you could disagree with and have a working relationship with. The other GOP candidates are about as diplomatic as a dining room table.

Agreed. I think that at one time Romney could have done that, but he is running so far right to capture the nomination none of us has a clue how he might actually want to govern.

[CosmicCowboy]

Agreed. I think that at one time Romney could have done that, but he is running so far right to capture the nomination none of us has a clue how he might actually want to govern.

Romney can move back to the center after the primary. The Republican social conservatives will still hock, spit, and vote for him over Obama.

IMHO this race will be over after South Carolina. Romney will be the nominee.

[Twisted_Dawg]

Keep in mind that Obama won the 2008 election with only 53% of the vote. He garned only 53% of the vote when the economy was crashing under Republican control. He got only 53% of the vote against an old man cold warrior and a ditsy VP candidate. He got 53% of the vote with a massive surge of MTV voters and support of independents.

In 2012 he likely will not have the surge of the MTVers, the African American vote may not be as strong, and he likely will lose many of the independents that supported him.

Although the "official unemployment" rate has dropped to 8.5%, the more telling U6 Unemployment rate is 16%. That is a lot of pissed off lost workers, unemployed and underemployed workers likley to take their wrath out in the election.

If the Repugs run a right wing nut like Perry, Gingrich, Paul then I think obama wins. A more moderate candidate like Romney or Huntsman will make it a very close election.
Rubio most certainly will be the VP candidate to help bring in the Hispanic vote.

[Jacob1983]

Barry will probably get re-elected but it won't be anywhere near like it was in 2008. Obama still has koolaid drinkers but the amount has decreased dramatically from 2008. I'd like to see Ron Paul or Huntsman as the nominee but American voters I guess like big government.

Obama has sucked ass president but he still gets to use "Blame Bush" card and the "I'm half-black" card too.

[AFBlue]

I don't put any stock in a formula that doesn't consider the opposition party nominee.

[Jacob1983]

Huntsman seems like he would be a nice neighbor. Like you could go next door and knock on his door and ask to borrow 1,000 dollars and he would give you the money. Or if you needed some sugar or something, he'd give you some. Santorum wouldn't give you sugar or money if you were gay or a Muslim. If you were a woman asking for something, Gingrich would probably try to score.

[EVAY]

Wow. Think about this time four years ago. Obama and Clinton had each won one primary (after Iowa and New Hampshire), and I kept thinking at the time that as bad as the Republicans had messed up civil liberties, increased the debt spending to get us from a surplus to a massive debt level, messed up the economy - remember that the decline in the housing and stock markets started in 2007 - all the Democrats could come up with as potential candidates were
a woman who had been the butt of late-night talk shows for 14 years (at the time) and an inexperienced african american senator.

The the Republicans nominated McCain, a war hero.

Right after the Republican convention the Republicans had a lead in the polls, even though folks were angry with the way things were going.

Then Sarah Palin opened her mouth and started talking.


It is way to early to call this election, regardless of the past factors.

[George Gervin's Afro]

What I find entertaining is those who reamed Kerry for being a flip floppoer...will now vote for a flip flopper...

[cheguevara]

Hussein's reelection is in the bag. LOL at ppl thinking/hoping otherwise

[CosmicCowboy]

What I find entertaining is those who reamed Kerry for being a flip floppoer...will now vote for a flip flopper...

Yeah, Obama HAS flip flopped a lot hasn't he?...:p:

[CosmicCowboy]

Hussein's reelection is in the bag. LOL at ppl thinking/hoping otherwise

Keep telling yourself that. hell, it's such a done deal you don't even need to vote in November...

[cheguevara]

Keep telling yourself that. hell, it's such a done deal you don't even need to vote in November...

agree

[Spur_Fanatic]

Unless a strong republican candidate shows up, Obama will win it easy.
And Santorum is not that guy.

[boutons_deux]

"Only a pure Idiot would think Obama is doing a good job."

Only an idiot would think a Repug GAF about governing, as the dubya/dickhead Reign of Error demonstrated so thoroughly.

[gameFACE]

Republicans should be worried that the crop of candidates they have are worse than Dukkakis was for the Democrats in '88. Obama will level any of them in a debate.

Not only will Obama get re-elected, it will be by a landslide.

[boutons_deux]

"Republicans nominated McCain, a war hero"

You Lie. He was a irresponsible, hot-headed, 5-plane-crash asshole who got his stupid ass shot down, foretelling his lack of judgment (keating) and emotional instability.

[clambake]

what happened to the "crackers for cain"?

[Nbadan]

I just don't see one uniting guy for the GOP....you need the fundies, so social conservative...that's Santorum or Perry and you need a pro-corporatists, that Romney or Gingrich

Romney/ Santorum is a weak ticket no christian in his right mind is gonna vote for a Mormon.....Obama
Romney/ Perry....stronger but just wrong...do you want Perry in charge of the Senate? ..Obama
Gingrich/Santorum wow...watch the Armageddon bombs drop we got corruption and social Armageddon....Obama
Gingrich/Perry ....Old ladies would rather stay home than vote for a cheater....Obama

Tell me how Obama doesn't win this?

[Borat Sagyidev]

I just don't see one uniting guy for the GOP....you need the fundies, so social conservative...that's Santorum or Perry and you need a pro-corporatists, that Romney or Gingrich

Romney/ Santorum is a weak ticket no christian in his right mind is gonna vote for a Mormon.....Obama
Romney/ Perry....stronger but just wrong...do you want Perry in charge of the Senate? ..Obama
Gingrich/Santorum wow...watch the Armageddon bombs drop we got corruption and social Armageddon....Obama
Gingrich/Perry ....Old ladies would rather stay home than vote for a cheater....Obama

Tell me how Obama doesn't win this?

They would need to become rational and nominate Huntsman, of course they won't because they suffer from combination of stupid/xenophobic/all gut no brain disease.

[CosmicCowboy]

I just don't see one uniting guy for the GOP....you need the fundies, so social conservative...that's Santorum or Perry and you need a pro-corporatists, that Romney or Gingrich

Romney/ Santorum is a weak ticket no christian in his right mind is gonna vote for a Mormon.....Obama
Romney/ Perry....stronger but just wrong...do you want Perry in charge of the Senate? ..Obama
Gingrich/Santorum wow...watch the Armageddon bombs drop we got corruption and social Armageddon....Obama
Gingrich/Perry ....Old ladies would rather stay home than vote for a cheater....Obama

Tell me how Obama doesn't win this?

Romney/Rubio is the most likely...and will be much tougher than you are giving them credit for. Obama is damn vulnerable.

[Nbadan]

Romney/Rubio is the most likely...and will be much tougher than you are giving them credit for. Obama is damn vulnerable.

Very unlikely, neither candidate would appeal to the fundamental, 'christian' base...Romney would lose and would go down as John Kerry circa 2012

[Nbadan]

Romney/Rubio is the most likely...and will be much tougher than you are giving them credit for. Obama is damn vulnerable.


Unless a strong republican candidate shows up, Obama will win it easy.
And Santorum is not that guy.

Yeah, I'm just not sure whom that 'strong republican candidate' would be...

Maybe Hillary will switch

:lol

[Nbadan]

Tell me how Obama doesn't win this?

:lol

[AFBlue]

Winner: Nbadan

Loser: America

[boutons_deux]

Escaped Repug Misgovernment: AMERICA